"100% I did. 90% I will. 80% I can. 70% I think I can. 60% I might. 50% I think I might. 40% What is it? 30% I wish I could. 20% I don't know how. 10% I can't. 0% I won't." - Ladder of Achievement
Saturday is Buffett's annual "Woodstock for Capitalist" stockholders meeting. A sure topic of conversation will be the bets Buffet has made on GS in loaning them 5 billion, making huge money, and whether GS redeems the preferred stock, or Buffet owns 8% of the preferred stock of the company. What Buffet says about the economy could resonate in our review of it for several weeks.
Last week was the 8th straight equities advance in 8 weeks, the longest winning streak in six years.
Analysis of the GDP comes out today; analysts see 3.9%
Study: Don't worry about downward Dow -- yet
Traders that held our June 550 Call, and had only sold partials yesterday, were able to profit to 7.30 and we now consider this position closed profitably.
With futures up no traders should have taken entry to the put, and we open the day with no new signal
By 3.30 p.m. the Dow had hit 11,237, continuing the upside run. It's not over.
________________
I had a subscriber cancel recently who commented on being a proud member of "The Tea Party." What I want to know is: What is the Tea Party? What do they believe in?
This guy went off on the Follow the Constitution crap (which we have not followed for over 70 years), and lower taxes, and don't bail anyone out. Classic babble.
Every Tea Party member I meet I say "great, we'll cancel your social security, as you don't believe in it, and we'll cancel your medicare, as they are not in the Constitution.
Many of those that signed our Constitution, which we immortalize, were in fact Wall Street type crooks themselves.
FALSE FACTS BEGET FALSE FACTS.
OBAMA IS NOT A SOCIALIST.
Goldman Sachs did exactly what they were supposed to do for their clients, much as I hate to say it.
And, there can be little argument that our economy has returned from the brink of disaster. No "free enterprise" could have done this.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
End of the Best
End of "Best Six Months" of the year
When the market is euphoric because it has returned to pre-Lehman days the market is trying to tell us something. Is it that it's not going to get much better than this?
Or is it than we are now selling ourselves a bill of good will, and cheer, and allowing ourselves to at least "break even." Remember, the vast majority of people, regular investors, did not participate in the 50% returns of last year, fearful the world finances were coming to an end.
Exxon Mobil and Conoco Phillips both report earnings today, and Burger King reports before the market opens. Rio Tinte today splits 4 to 1.
55.2% in a public survey felt that Goldman Sachs was guilty. This means there are some really stupid people (20.7% say the certain the firm is not guilty alone) that have been in a tea party hole pushing for "free enterprise." For fun, read Confessions of an Economic Hitman
Reading this book alone ought to frighten the capitalism of your core being right out of you.
Now, to the market as we see it. Through 2.43 p.m., before the 3 p.m. hour, the market had moved to a theoretical Dow low of 10,925 to a high of 11,118. Much whipsaw occurred in early trading, allowing entry to the May 550 Call as low as 3.80 and easy sales to 5.20 by early afternoon. It was an easy 37% profit on simple and mild whipsaw. However, others bought this higher and it does remain an open signal. From there we saw the market take off and new buyers of our call today had an even longer opportunity to hold for profit.
This is of interest. At times while holding a position, taking a day trade on it at the same time, a new position, often makes it easier for multiple or confirmed profits on the option.
The market reversed itself, which if it continues today may mean our consolidation was short and fast; the bears swear 10, 700 within days.
We provide dual signals, with our lead to the call, and more upside for the short term.
When the market is euphoric because it has returned to pre-Lehman days the market is trying to tell us something. Is it that it's not going to get much better than this?
Or is it than we are now selling ourselves a bill of good will, and cheer, and allowing ourselves to at least "break even." Remember, the vast majority of people, regular investors, did not participate in the 50% returns of last year, fearful the world finances were coming to an end.
Exxon Mobil and Conoco Phillips both report earnings today, and Burger King reports before the market opens. Rio Tinte today splits 4 to 1.
55.2% in a public survey felt that Goldman Sachs was guilty. This means there are some really stupid people (20.7% say the certain the firm is not guilty alone) that have been in a tea party hole pushing for "free enterprise." For fun, read Confessions of an Economic Hitman
Reading this book alone ought to frighten the capitalism of your core being right out of you.
Now, to the market as we see it. Through 2.43 p.m., before the 3 p.m. hour, the market had moved to a theoretical Dow low of 10,925 to a high of 11,118. Much whipsaw occurred in early trading, allowing entry to the May 550 Call as low as 3.80 and easy sales to 5.20 by early afternoon. It was an easy 37% profit on simple and mild whipsaw. However, others bought this higher and it does remain an open signal. From there we saw the market take off and new buyers of our call today had an even longer opportunity to hold for profit.
This is of interest. At times while holding a position, taking a day trade on it at the same time, a new position, often makes it easier for multiple or confirmed profits on the option.
The market reversed itself, which if it continues today may mean our consolidation was short and fast; the bears swear 10, 700 within days.
We provide dual signals, with our lead to the call, and more upside for the short term.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Strong Consolidation
"When a company reports higher earnings for its first quarter (over its previous year's first quarter), chances are almost five to one it will also have increased earnings in its second quarter."
Figure out what trigger you would like to see as the "catalyst" but the market finally took a strong consolidation, allowed some profit taking, and through 2.50 p.m. had held above 11,050. A move to 10,928-10,890 would signify potentially more downside pressure to our lower Dow projection bottoms. If, however, the market is able to maintain around 11,000 we could see a regular upside.
Fear of Greek debt, of the Euro, of the same economies collapsing on debt, are now the fear of the EU. All of us knew it was there all this time, just as we all know Goldman Sachs and all of them are guilty, and that in the end, little is likely to change until the actual demise of Wall Street.
The FEDS announcement (FOMC) is widely expected to hold short-term interest rates in historic low range. The focus will be on whether "extended period" stays in the statement
Bernanke concludes with. Any lessening of "low rates forever" could trigger market movement. There is also whipsaw before FOMC announcements, with typical build up to the bias in purchases 2 hours or so before the FOMC announces. There is also typically strong whipsaw from 3.00 to 4.15 p.m EST while the option market is open.
Visa posts results after the market closes.
What the analysts say:
S&P DOWNGRADES GREEK DEBT TO JUNK AND CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS AND BUYING OF US BONDS -- GOLD BOUNCES AGAINST DOLLAR AND REACHES RECORD AGAINST THE EURO -- 20% JUMP IN THE VIX SHOWS THAT OPTION TRADERS ARE TURNING MORE CAUTIOUS ON STOCKS -- EUROPE IS PULLING EAFE ISHARES LOWER
The market did close below 11,000 at our first support bottom.
We remain long on the market, and remain with the call
Figure out what trigger you would like to see as the "catalyst" but the market finally took a strong consolidation, allowed some profit taking, and through 2.50 p.m. had held above 11,050. A move to 10,928-10,890 would signify potentially more downside pressure to our lower Dow projection bottoms. If, however, the market is able to maintain around 11,000 we could see a regular upside.
Fear of Greek debt, of the Euro, of the same economies collapsing on debt, are now the fear of the EU. All of us knew it was there all this time, just as we all know Goldman Sachs and all of them are guilty, and that in the end, little is likely to change until the actual demise of Wall Street.
The FEDS announcement (FOMC) is widely expected to hold short-term interest rates in historic low range. The focus will be on whether "extended period" stays in the statement
Bernanke concludes with. Any lessening of "low rates forever" could trigger market movement. There is also whipsaw before FOMC announcements, with typical build up to the bias in purchases 2 hours or so before the FOMC announces. There is also typically strong whipsaw from 3.00 to 4.15 p.m EST while the option market is open.
Visa posts results after the market closes.
What the analysts say:
S&P DOWNGRADES GREEK DEBT TO JUNK AND CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN STOCKS AND BUYING OF US BONDS -- GOLD BOUNCES AGAINST DOLLAR AND REACHES RECORD AGAINST THE EURO -- 20% JUMP IN THE VIX SHOWS THAT OPTION TRADERS ARE TURNING MORE CAUTIOUS ON STOCKS -- EUROPE IS PULLING EAFE ISHARES LOWER
The market did close below 11,000 at our first support bottom.
We remain long on the market, and remain with the call
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
"[The Fed] is very smart, but [it] doesn't run the markets. In the end, the markets will run [the Fed]. The markets are bigger than anyman or any group of men. The markets can even break a president..." - Richard Russell
The lack of government regulation has morphed Wall Street into a place that regularly trades AGAINST our economy. It is their jobs vs. their bonuses on every trade.
So in no way is Wall Street, selling "stocks," trying to protect your interests. If you believe otherwise, from a tea party gathering on "free enterprise," then I've got a AAA rated subprime mortgage based CDO to sell you.
Consumers are spending again, delivering a strong boost to first-quarter corporate sales and profits, and prodding some companies to rehire laid-off workers and others to start raising prices again.
Calls were profitable for many traders and are an example of "how to trade." We repeat below our instructions from yesterday. "Buy below prior day close." Do not buy if the market moves below a certain point. We made a quick $1.00 per contract as the market theoretically topped at 11,298 by 1 p.m.
"Floyd, this was great. I bought 100 on the 550C at opening and got 8.50, and sold them all in block at 9.50 two hours later. I made 10k. I've hit it on so many of your signals recently; you're amazing"-JEK, South Carolina
"Floyd, I subscribe to Blue Chip and to OEX, and at times your comments drive me crazy. I disagree, and you blast me personally on the false facts I have when I write in, and I have become a true believer in your cynicism. I started 9 months ago, and have made 85,000 off your recommendations. I'm sold"-NBT, Kansas City
The lack of government regulation has morphed Wall Street into a place that regularly trades AGAINST our economy. It is their jobs vs. their bonuses on every trade.
So in no way is Wall Street, selling "stocks," trying to protect your interests. If you believe otherwise, from a tea party gathering on "free enterprise," then I've got a AAA rated subprime mortgage based CDO to sell you.
Consumers are spending again, delivering a strong boost to first-quarter corporate sales and profits, and prodding some companies to rehire laid-off workers and others to start raising prices again.
Calls were profitable for many traders and are an example of "how to trade." We repeat below our instructions from yesterday. "Buy below prior day close." Do not buy if the market moves below a certain point. We made a quick $1.00 per contract as the market theoretically topped at 11,298 by 1 p.m.
"Floyd, this was great. I bought 100 on the 550C at opening and got 8.50, and sold them all in block at 9.50 two hours later. I made 10k. I've hit it on so many of your signals recently; you're amazing"-JEK, South Carolina
"Floyd, I subscribe to Blue Chip and to OEX, and at times your comments drive me crazy. I disagree, and you blast me personally on the false facts I have when I write in, and I have become a true believer in your cynicism. I started 9 months ago, and have made 85,000 off your recommendations. I'm sold"-NBT, Kansas City
Monday, April 26, 2010
VIX Shows Little Fear
April 1999 first month ever to gain 1,000 Dow points
The market simply refuses to take any sell signal, even around negative cycles, and continues upside. VIX is showing little fear, but my indicators remain up long term. If futures are at extremes do not chase a trade.
Short term, at the 50/50% level, remains a consolidation to a variety of potential levels, outlined in our new Dow projections. We watch Gold carefully around this, and see sell signals around its volatility, and know that how the Euro holds, how the Greek debt further unfolds, and how earnings and data reflect the mood.
From traveling the U.S. recently I can say the economy is strong, that people are spending, that there are no signs of "serious recession" everywhere. We still abound in false facts, we all still know that lobbyists and corporations truly run the country, but the fall off the cliff has been avoided.
Our short term thoughts are a potential consolidation to surprise the market, led by a slow and steady increase in the 11,000's. We do not see growth in 2010 of any real merit in the market, and have to learn to catch the stock that is breaking out, as we've recently done in our great option trades at www.bluechipoptions.com
Index option trading takes serious study, to "learn an option" (such as our call this week), and how it moves. We don't always "fall in love with an option," but we try to recognize where things will be around the pivot point and support and resistance.
The market simply refuses to take any sell signal, even around negative cycles, and continues upside. VIX is showing little fear, but my indicators remain up long term. If futures are at extremes do not chase a trade.
Short term, at the 50/50% level, remains a consolidation to a variety of potential levels, outlined in our new Dow projections. We watch Gold carefully around this, and see sell signals around its volatility, and know that how the Euro holds, how the Greek debt further unfolds, and how earnings and data reflect the mood.
From traveling the U.S. recently I can say the economy is strong, that people are spending, that there are no signs of "serious recession" everywhere. We still abound in false facts, we all still know that lobbyists and corporations truly run the country, but the fall off the cliff has been avoided.
Our short term thoughts are a potential consolidation to surprise the market, led by a slow and steady increase in the 11,000's. We do not see growth in 2010 of any real merit in the market, and have to learn to catch the stock that is breaking out, as we've recently done in our great option trades at www.bluechipoptions.com
Index option trading takes serious study, to "learn an option" (such as our call this week), and how it moves. We don't always "fall in love with an option," but we try to recognize where things will be around the pivot point and support and resistance.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Profits Were Possible
March new homes data is out and economists predict growth. Durable good orders are also released. More earnings come out.
There is a giant oil bomb going off in the Gulf as we gulp for energy.
Economists also see initial jobless claims falling for the week.
The world wonders about earthquakes, and volcanic ash.
And the market held. Hitting lows of 10,976 on a theoretical Dow, or 11, 016 it held and moved back up by 3.40 p.m. to 5 points over prior day close.
This is a serious sign the market may have penetrated the 11,000 psychological barrier, and the bulls will have upside to over 11,700.
Some technical chartists, however, see the market dangerously topping, and set up for a much more serious setback, enough to put pause to our economic recovery.
Heavens, GM repaid its loan. Would you have bet on that?
Profits were possible yesterday for both put and call in day trading, and in longer positions. We will keep these same positions open, for any that have not closed out profitably, but close by end of day. We do not want to hold an open signal over the weekend.
There is a giant oil bomb going off in the Gulf as we gulp for energy.
Economists also see initial jobless claims falling for the week.
The world wonders about earthquakes, and volcanic ash.
And the market held. Hitting lows of 10,976 on a theoretical Dow, or 11, 016 it held and moved back up by 3.40 p.m. to 5 points over prior day close.
This is a serious sign the market may have penetrated the 11,000 psychological barrier, and the bulls will have upside to over 11,700.
Some technical chartists, however, see the market dangerously topping, and set up for a much more serious setback, enough to put pause to our economic recovery.
Heavens, GM repaid its loan. Would you have bet on that?
Profits were possible yesterday for both put and call in day trading, and in longer positions. We will keep these same positions open, for any that have not closed out profitably, but close by end of day. We do not want to hold an open signal over the weekend.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." - Darrell Huff
The struggle yesterday took the market to highs of 11,194 on the theoretical Dow, and 11,031 at the bottom. And the market held.
Stellar earnings from many companies bolstered the market around a series of banking questions, and the general fodder of Republicans vs. Democrats, with all the facts reversed.
For example, which political party has spent more money on office, built larger deficits, than the other in the past 50 years? I'll wait for your study.
Why are we surprised the government is now getting to reviewing the financial system? I'm pleased to hear Clinton admit it was Rubin and Summers, his financial advisors, that first de-regulated derivatives, and it was then the Bushy boys that just let the money flow, too busy bringing democracy to the world.
We almost hit the end before the bail outs. TARRP is being repaid.
What % of the deficit we are now all afraid of is for Social Security?
These questions lead, as the market continues to reach new highs, with no end in site.
And a few thoughts from our Blue Chip service, about where the market may lead:
-A Dow drop below 10,980 (higher than normal as a close should be a potential sell signal. This would put the S&P at 1189.
The struggle yesterday took the market to highs of 11,194 on the theoretical Dow, and 11,031 at the bottom. And the market held.
Stellar earnings from many companies bolstered the market around a series of banking questions, and the general fodder of Republicans vs. Democrats, with all the facts reversed.
For example, which political party has spent more money on office, built larger deficits, than the other in the past 50 years? I'll wait for your study.
Why are we surprised the government is now getting to reviewing the financial system? I'm pleased to hear Clinton admit it was Rubin and Summers, his financial advisors, that first de-regulated derivatives, and it was then the Bushy boys that just let the money flow, too busy bringing democracy to the world.
We almost hit the end before the bail outs. TARRP is being repaid.
What % of the deficit we are now all afraid of is for Social Security?
These questions lead, as the market continues to reach new highs, with no end in site.
And a few thoughts from our Blue Chip service, about where the market may lead:
-A Dow drop below 10,980 (higher than normal as a close should be a potential sell signal. This would put the S&P at 1189.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Everything is Different
April prone to weakness after tax deadline.
How the healthcare overhaul initially reflects in pricing of medical devices and affect drugs as Amgen and Stryker both report. Is the market preparing for the old time traditional "sell in May," and the market flattens for several months. Everything in the recent past has been different.
The market is simple to respond to. Earnings are good, euphoria is up, and no one really gives a s__t that Goldman Sachs (and all the banks robbed us for years). Watch for new market toppings near 10,267 or drops on any bad earnings.
The call was available for $1.00 profits by 2.00 p.m. We will watch on any more upside for a new entry to the put as a hedge in this volatile market.
How the healthcare overhaul initially reflects in pricing of medical devices and affect drugs as Amgen and Stryker both report. Is the market preparing for the old time traditional "sell in May," and the market flattens for several months. Everything in the recent past has been different.
The market is simple to respond to. Earnings are good, euphoria is up, and no one really gives a s__t that Goldman Sachs (and all the banks robbed us for years). Watch for new market toppings near 10,267 or drops on any bad earnings.
The call was available for $1.00 profits by 2.00 p.m. We will watch on any more upside for a new entry to the put as a hedge in this volatile market.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
The Bulls Keep the Market Up
Futures were down 50 points, and the bears were in full swing today. Gold fell Friday (our Blue Chip Option subscribers had just sold for good profits) despite no logic as to why it would.
The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1192.13. If the S&P holds under 1188, or if the Dow goes below 10, 950, we may see more volatility and downside run.
Essentially a plunge occurred Friday because slimy old Goldman Sachs is the first of many the now active SEC will file suit against for various frauds and house of cards.
So, what did this do for us? As the market opened our May 2010 500 Put had lows for 1.55 and traders were able to enter, and were able to enter on the May 550 Call as low at 5.20 and sell to 7.00 by 3.00 p.m. by 10.30 a.m.
These signals could have been day traded on Monday, and both remain open issues. Fall in love with these options; a far OTM put that could catch great profits if a landslide occurs for the bears, and a call that shows the strength and volatility of the market. It's as if we think "the news" leads it, when in reality CYCLES do. Again, DO NOT chase prices up and ALWAYS have sell orders in after you have executed. Many traders miss these tools. Put your limit price to buy in and put your limit price to sell.
I am very impressed that by 3 p.m. the bulls had kept the market up to 11, 067 and that moves below 11,000 were fleeting until the final "stock manipulation hour."
Floydian Facts
2010's savings rate is already down from 2009's 4.6%
9.8% unemployment rate expected for all of 2010
10.5 trilion in personal consumption spending set to rise by 4%, to this amount.
Bernanke tells us "the risk of a double dip is certainly less than it was a few months ago.
Tuesday earnings reports coming out: US Bank, Johnson and Johnson, Apple, Bank of NY Mellon, United Healthcare and Coca Cola.
After IBM, Citi and Lilly reported Monday we could begin to see the market's reaction. Tuesday the market also watches JC Penney, meeting with analysts, that has been doing well.
There have been 78 drone attacks in Pakistan since Obama hit office, vs. 45 under Bush, always the cowboy to be shooting at the wrong enemy.
Our enemy is the fear and hatred we bring ourselves.
The S&P 500 closed last Friday at 1192.13. If the S&P holds under 1188, or if the Dow goes below 10, 950, we may see more volatility and downside run.
Essentially a plunge occurred Friday because slimy old Goldman Sachs is the first of many the now active SEC will file suit against for various frauds and house of cards.
So, what did this do for us? As the market opened our May 2010 500 Put had lows for 1.55 and traders were able to enter, and were able to enter on the May 550 Call as low at 5.20 and sell to 7.00 by 3.00 p.m. by 10.30 a.m.
These signals could have been day traded on Monday, and both remain open issues. Fall in love with these options; a far OTM put that could catch great profits if a landslide occurs for the bears, and a call that shows the strength and volatility of the market. It's as if we think "the news" leads it, when in reality CYCLES do. Again, DO NOT chase prices up and ALWAYS have sell orders in after you have executed. Many traders miss these tools. Put your limit price to buy in and put your limit price to sell.
I am very impressed that by 3 p.m. the bulls had kept the market up to 11, 067 and that moves below 11,000 were fleeting until the final "stock manipulation hour."
Floydian Facts
2010's savings rate is already down from 2009's 4.6%
9.8% unemployment rate expected for all of 2010
10.5 trilion in personal consumption spending set to rise by 4%, to this amount.
Bernanke tells us "the risk of a double dip is certainly less than it was a few months ago.
Tuesday earnings reports coming out: US Bank, Johnson and Johnson, Apple, Bank of NY Mellon, United Healthcare and Coca Cola.
After IBM, Citi and Lilly reported Monday we could begin to see the market's reaction. Tuesday the market also watches JC Penney, meeting with analysts, that has been doing well.
There have been 78 drone attacks in Pakistan since Obama hit office, vs. 45 under Bush, always the cowboy to be shooting at the wrong enemy.
Our enemy is the fear and hatred we bring ourselves.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Dangerous Area
"Investors operate with limited funds and limited intelligence, they don't need to know everything. As long as they understand something better than others, they have an edge." - George Soros
Goldman Sachs was Friday's trigger, but we hover in a dangerous area near 11,000. Study our Dow Projections carefully. We have a possibility of another upside, more consolidation .. or, more downside to 10,850-10,746. Healthy bulls see 10,920 and rebound.
Earnings continue.
Goldman Sachs was Friday's trigger, but we hover in a dangerous area near 11,000. Study our Dow Projections carefully. We have a possibility of another upside, more consolidation .. or, more downside to 10,850-10,746. Healthy bulls see 10,920 and rebound.
Earnings continue.
Friday, April 16, 2010
The Greed Stage
The market held up well through 3 p.m,with mild whipsaw. We're impressed that the market did hold this long, and project possible higher highs as noted in our new Dow projections.
However, we may now also be entering the GREED stage, or one of euphoria, and the longer higher highs occur, the greater the fall.
The market may just tickle us a bit. Any close below 11,050 changes the mood of the marketplace. We'll have commentary Monday on the overall trend to the market, and how we can profit.
However, we may now also be entering the GREED stage, or one of euphoria, and the longer higher highs occur, the greater the fall.
The market may just tickle us a bit. Any close below 11,050 changes the mood of the marketplace. We'll have commentary Monday on the overall trend to the market, and how we can profit.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Generally Bullish
Thursday, April 15th
Income Tax Deadline
Generally Bullish, Dow down only five times since 1981
Yesterday showed serious confirmation, with the Dow rising to a theoretical top of 11,148 by the 3 p.m. hour. We will re-project the Dow today based on the strength of the upside, even if a sell off occurs by end of day (this being written at 3.09 pm. EST 4/14, before the market closed.)
We're profitable on the call, but at a loss, with no second buy, to the put. Continue to hold the put, make a larger second buy, and settle for 22% profits. We will simply hold this "hedge" as the market continues it's rise.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens.
The market analysts say "SEMICONDUCTOR SURGE GIVES MARKET A BIG BOOST -- THAT'S MAY ALSO BE HELPING BULLISH BREAKOUT IN ASIA -- A WEAKER DOLLAR SHOULD ALLOW COMMODITIES (AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM) TO PLAY CATCHUP TO THE STOCK MARKET -- NATIONAL SEMICONDUCTOR BREAKS OUT"
Income Tax Deadline
Generally Bullish, Dow down only five times since 1981
Yesterday showed serious confirmation, with the Dow rising to a theoretical top of 11,148 by the 3 p.m. hour. We will re-project the Dow today based on the strength of the upside, even if a sell off occurs by end of day (this being written at 3.09 pm. EST 4/14, before the market closed.)
We're profitable on the call, but at a loss, with no second buy, to the put. Continue to hold the put, make a larger second buy, and settle for 22% profits. We will simply hold this "hedge" as the market continues it's rise.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens.
The market analysts say "SEMICONDUCTOR SURGE GIVES MARKET A BIG BOOST -- THAT'S MAY ALSO BE HELPING BULLISH BREAKOUT IN ASIA -- A WEAKER DOLLAR SHOULD ALLOW COMMODITIES (AND STOCKS TIED TO THEM) TO PLAY CATCHUP TO THE STOCK MARKET -- NATIONAL SEMICONDUCTOR BREAKS OUT"
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
The Market Held Above 11,000
Yet again, the market held above 11,000. Read: From John Murphy at Stock Charts.com
DOW 11000 DOESN'T HAVE MUCH TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND PROBABLY WON'T STOP THE DOW'S ADVANCE -- BUT CHART RESISTANCE IS VISIBLE BETWEEN 11200 AND 11600 -- KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER MONTHLY BOLLINGER BAND AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE TARGET
JP Morgan-which may trigger the market downward, as it may not hit analyst earnings also on Wednesday
On Wednesday the beige book is out, YUM Brands posts results, and Thursday Google reports earnings after the market close.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens. With the market again moving minor points, and landing above 11,000 for the first close since the financial system began teetering 19 months ago.
John Murphy thus may be right. We suspect a downturn consolidation to 10,850 area only on the "need" for consolidation, but earnings may not be priced into the market, as many think they are.
Long term, we remain bullish.
The Dow can be defined as having a "stealth" rally characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.
DOW 11000 DOESN'T HAVE MUCH TECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCE AND PROBABLY WON'T STOP THE DOW'S ADVANCE -- BUT CHART RESISTANCE IS VISIBLE BETWEEN 11200 AND 11600 -- KEEP AN EYE ON UPPER MONTHLY BOLLINGER BAND AS A POTENTIAL UPSIDE TARGET
JP Morgan-which may trigger the market downward, as it may not hit analyst earnings also on Wednesday
On Wednesday the beige book is out, YUM Brands posts results, and Thursday Google reports earnings after the market close.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens. With the market again moving minor points, and landing above 11,000 for the first close since the financial system began teetering 19 months ago.
John Murphy thus may be right. We suspect a downturn consolidation to 10,850 area only on the "need" for consolidation, but earnings may not be priced into the market, as many think they are.
Long term, we remain bullish.
The Dow can be defined as having a "stealth" rally characterized by below-average trading volume and small daily moves.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Uniquely Hysterical
"Wall Street has a uniquely hysterical way of thinking the world will end tomorrow but be fully recovered in the long run, then a few years later believing the immediate future is rosy but that the long term stinks." - Kenneth L. Fisher
Alcoa reported after market yesterday and will affect futures.
The market struggled valiantly and reversed to hold above 11,000.
Our signal instructions remain the same. Done right, the moves that could take place in this market could be "two way trades".
The following Big time stocks report this week, and trigger points that could move the market:
International trade deficit could widen to 40 billion on Tuesday, analysts project
Consumer Price Index is also out on Tuesday
JP Morgan-which may trigger the market downward, as it may not hit analyst earnings also on Wednesday
On Wednesday the beige book is out, YUM Brands posts results, and Thursday Google reports earnings after the market close.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens.
Alcoa reported after market yesterday and will affect futures.
The market struggled valiantly and reversed to hold above 11,000.
Our signal instructions remain the same. Done right, the moves that could take place in this market could be "two way trades".
The following Big time stocks report this week, and trigger points that could move the market:
International trade deficit could widen to 40 billion on Tuesday, analysts project
Consumer Price Index is also out on Tuesday
JP Morgan-which may trigger the market downward, as it may not hit analyst earnings also on Wednesday
On Wednesday the beige book is out, YUM Brands posts results, and Thursday Google reports earnings after the market close.
On Friday Bank of America reports, and GE reports before the market opens.
Monday, April 12, 2010
11,000
The Dow may hit and hold at 11,000, and may go above it (see Dow projections), but all 0000's are a psychological anchor point that often is followed by a drop. Couple this with a market that has been going up far too long without consolidation, and bears see a downside turn.
At the same time this week begins earnings reports, and we believe the first quarter will look good for a number of companies, which could bolster the market up.
Floyd's bet: Good earnings will bolster the market to as high as 11,176. Any bad earnings could take the market to consolidation of 3%, or near 10,841.
We will move to May issues this week, and provide another "version" of the OEX daily alert that we are trying. We welcome your feedback.
At the same time this week begins earnings reports, and we believe the first quarter will look good for a number of companies, which could bolster the market up.
Floyd's bet: Good earnings will bolster the market to as high as 11,176. Any bad earnings could take the market to consolidation of 3%, or near 10,841.
We will move to May issues this week, and provide another "version" of the OEX daily alert that we are trying. We welcome your feedback.
Friday, April 9, 2010
The Best Month for the Dow
April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. 3rd best month for S&P, 4th best for NASDAQ.
Two way trades were possible today. The market held up after over a 100 point theoretical low, and ended the day up.
Thanks for trying a part of our new format this week.
1. Our goal is to give you just enough information to make your experience reading our alerts consummate with your experience, or you merely "link" to areas of our website to help you develop those skills.
2. Our attempt to not "show a signal," but "show a method" is very effective. The trader is either long or short, and if day trading using minute or 5 minute PNF charts, or following our standard rules of the market.
3. I learned the market studying Richard D. Wyckoff. There is only supply and demand, and then cause and effect. That is the stock market. And that is economy.
Two way trades were possible today. The market held up after over a 100 point theoretical low, and ended the day up.
Thanks for trying a part of our new format this week.
1. Our goal is to give you just enough information to make your experience reading our alerts consummate with your experience, or you merely "link" to areas of our website to help you develop those skills.
2. Our attempt to not "show a signal," but "show a method" is very effective. The trader is either long or short, and if day trading using minute or 5 minute PNF charts, or following our standard rules of the market.
3. I learned the market studying Richard D. Wyckoff. There is only supply and demand, and then cause and effect. That is the stock market. And that is economy.
Thursday, April 8, 2010
An Experiment
"Every time everyone's talking about something, that's the time to sell." - George Lindermann
This past week has been an experiment in our OEX templates, as we are continuing to change and improve both of our websites
In the meantime we've tried to provide "bias and count" for 45days, and long or short. We'll be back to regular format on Monday, but wanted to experiment with how fast traders can find that it is not the signal itself that is so important, but in how one anticipates the action of the market, or the bias, the count, the "edge." If we understand the bell curve count we know and have better odds. You'll continue to see us experiment with the best format to provide you the most valuable information.
What we tried to show this week is that regardless of OTM or ATM options if the volume is high enough and the bid/ask is being "played" by others, it is a time to make money.
For day traders, in tight increments. For longer term (3 or 4 day) traders by holding through whipsaw, and taking a second buy only if we see the bias may be shifting.
I study to see only the pivot, and the support and resistance lines. If the market moves by 75- 100 points I recalculate the pivot and support and resistance lines and I buy and sell around these lines.
__________________________
More from our BCO Commentary:
228 stocks on average reached new 52-week intraday highs each day during this last quarter.
· Bullish? Birinyi Associates as top analysts see a 1325 S&P top, which would “translate to a multiple of 17 on the 2010 consensus, neither cheap or extraordinary.” He could be right. Some likely give back would be good, leading to more of a bullish run in 2010.
· The bottom line is that job growth momentum is improving. John Hermann at State Street says “by the third quarter, profits will be at a new all-time record high. That is a plus for the jobs outlook.”
· It’s taken a year, as the market began performing, for corporate profits to begin to catch up. Early last year the corporate profits were made because of the vast reductions in staff. This was a V shape bottom in the stock market; and we are seeing a V shaped chart building in the development of earnings.
· We assume that the first quarter earnings are going to be good, and that this will buoy the market; however, we also believe analysts will be watching and listening to the “tone and comments” of future earnings.
· They will be doing so because the great fear of a W, or a “double dip,” the fear of a return to 9750, will lessen if job growth, higher earnings, and capital spending.
· We’ll see financials again gaining, this time 194% for the quarter. But again, this has a false fact within it, as the value for quarterly earnings in the financial sector was 50 to 60 billion three years ago, will be 20.1 billion this year, and was 6.9 billion the first quarter of last year. We are seeing steady improvement.
· Earnings lead to business spending, which leads to hiring, which leads to consumer spending. The cycle may be returning. Typically 60% of companies beat estimates, so there’s a good chance, analysts think, that we’ll hit 35 to 36% earnings growth.
This past week has been an experiment in our OEX templates, as we are continuing to change and improve both of our websites
In the meantime we've tried to provide "bias and count" for 45days, and long or short. We'll be back to regular format on Monday, but wanted to experiment with how fast traders can find that it is not the signal itself that is so important, but in how one anticipates the action of the market, or the bias, the count, the "edge." If we understand the bell curve count we know and have better odds. You'll continue to see us experiment with the best format to provide you the most valuable information.
What we tried to show this week is that regardless of OTM or ATM options if the volume is high enough and the bid/ask is being "played" by others, it is a time to make money.
For day traders, in tight increments. For longer term (3 or 4 day) traders by holding through whipsaw, and taking a second buy only if we see the bias may be shifting.
I study to see only the pivot, and the support and resistance lines. If the market moves by 75- 100 points I recalculate the pivot and support and resistance lines and I buy and sell around these lines.
__________________________
More from our BCO Commentary:
228 stocks on average reached new 52-week intraday highs each day during this last quarter.
· Bullish? Birinyi Associates as top analysts see a 1325 S&P top, which would “translate to a multiple of 17 on the 2010 consensus, neither cheap or extraordinary.” He could be right. Some likely give back would be good, leading to more of a bullish run in 2010.
· The bottom line is that job growth momentum is improving. John Hermann at State Street says “by the third quarter, profits will be at a new all-time record high. That is a plus for the jobs outlook.”
· It’s taken a year, as the market began performing, for corporate profits to begin to catch up. Early last year the corporate profits were made because of the vast reductions in staff. This was a V shape bottom in the stock market; and we are seeing a V shaped chart building in the development of earnings.
· We assume that the first quarter earnings are going to be good, and that this will buoy the market; however, we also believe analysts will be watching and listening to the “tone and comments” of future earnings.
· They will be doing so because the great fear of a W, or a “double dip,” the fear of a return to 9750, will lessen if job growth, higher earnings, and capital spending.
· We’ll see financials again gaining, this time 194% for the quarter. But again, this has a false fact within it, as the value for quarterly earnings in the financial sector was 50 to 60 billion three years ago, will be 20.1 billion this year, and was 6.9 billion the first quarter of last year. We are seeing steady improvement.
· Earnings lead to business spending, which leads to hiring, which leads to consumer spending. The cycle may be returning. Typically 60% of companies beat estimates, so there’s a good chance, analysts think, that we’ll hit 35 to 36% earnings growth.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
My Simple Rules for Trading
"I was in search of a one-armed economist so that the guy could never make a statement and then say: 'on the other hand.'" - Harry S. Truman
My simple rules of trading:
1. Do not buy if I do not feel right.
2. When I buy pay no higher than prior day close, and preferably near best buy price. If I don't get to buy that day, so be it.
3. Always have buy and sell orders in, at a limit. Always.
4. Strictly follow the rules of the 4 day stop loss
5. Watch the count very carefully. It's a bell curve from 1 to 10, and as anything gets to a 7 or 8 it's likely a cycle will return and reverse, hence why we are long or short.
6. This is like playing cards. It is gambling. But with education you realize you are only fighting your own emotions.
Trading is an art of zen.
There is a reason we are not trading. The market is not. We move down 36 points, up 50, and options simply do not move.
We are a key resistance area at 11,000. If the market turns, consolidation should not be lengthy. If the market continues it's up move it's likely the down moves, when they come, will be more extreme.
John Murphy said, "Why commodities are stronger than they appear while the dollar is weaker -- too much focus is being placed on the weak Euro and not enough on rising commodity currencies --- weak agricultural markets are masking bigger gains in more economically sensitive energy and metal markets.
My simple rules of trading:
1. Do not buy if I do not feel right.
2. When I buy pay no higher than prior day close, and preferably near best buy price. If I don't get to buy that day, so be it.
3. Always have buy and sell orders in, at a limit. Always.
4. Strictly follow the rules of the 4 day stop loss
5. Watch the count very carefully. It's a bell curve from 1 to 10, and as anything gets to a 7 or 8 it's likely a cycle will return and reverse, hence why we are long or short.
6. This is like playing cards. It is gambling. But with education you realize you are only fighting your own emotions.
Trading is an art of zen.
There is a reason we are not trading. The market is not. We move down 36 points, up 50, and options simply do not move.
We are a key resistance area at 11,000. If the market turns, consolidation should not be lengthy. If the market continues it's up move it's likely the down moves, when they come, will be more extreme.
John Murphy said, "Why commodities are stronger than they appear while the dollar is weaker -- too much focus is being placed on the weak Euro and not enough on rising commodity currencies --- weak agricultural markets are masking bigger gains in more economically sensitive energy and metal markets.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Dealing with False Facts
It is a fact within a fact that someone must do something for 10,000 hours before they become good at it. Study The Outliers by Malcom Boyd to learn how facts can be deciphered, Boyd is a genius at it, and compare it with the false facts that surround us in newsbites.
We as traders and humans deal in false facts that lead to false interpretations, and soon become our newsbites. Imagine, more of our attention (without choice) covers Sarah Palin, or sexual escapades, and true change can then never take place.
It is most important to know that nothing is real. A rock is not hard. You know only what you know.
Note our new format makes the OEX Alert faster to read, and provides links to the areas you may want to study. We welcome your feedback.
Here is another excerpt from the BCO Commentary:
· Bonds should have more upside until late April, when we might have a correction, before a stronger upturn to bonds for the rest of 2010.
· A T & T pays a 6% dividend. How can anyone with cash not put cash someplace like this?
· We’ll go long on the Canadian dollar after a nice 2% correction, and stay long.
· Many Dow Theorists subscribe to our service. For those that understand this first note that it was the Dow transports that hit the new highs ahead of the Dow. Bears then saw that not as much was following along. This is called non -confirmation, or bearish divergence. In our daily OEX I call this “a trading range.” There is tight divergence, bullish or bearish, and we’ve seen many days of even moves up, always to show a bearish influence, but steady grounds.
We as traders and humans deal in false facts that lead to false interpretations, and soon become our newsbites. Imagine, more of our attention (without choice) covers Sarah Palin, or sexual escapades, and true change can then never take place.
It is most important to know that nothing is real. A rock is not hard. You know only what you know.
Note our new format makes the OEX Alert faster to read, and provides links to the areas you may want to study. We welcome your feedback.
Here is another excerpt from the BCO Commentary:
· Bonds should have more upside until late April, when we might have a correction, before a stronger upturn to bonds for the rest of 2010.
· A T & T pays a 6% dividend. How can anyone with cash not put cash someplace like this?
· We’ll go long on the Canadian dollar after a nice 2% correction, and stay long.
· Many Dow Theorists subscribe to our service. For those that understand this first note that it was the Dow transports that hit the new highs ahead of the Dow. Bears then saw that not as much was following along. This is called non -confirmation, or bearish divergence. In our daily OEX I call this “a trading range.” There is tight divergence, bullish or bearish, and we’ve seen many days of even moves up, always to show a bearish influence, but steady grounds.
Monday, April 5, 2010
A Teaching Week
This week we are going to share with you the commentary that our Blue Chip option subscribers see each Monday morning. It's a teaching week, as Floyd is out in Palm Springs on business, and we believe with how the market and option market itself has behaved that the timing of some "renewal" of the basics is in perfect form.
We will also be testing a formula this week for a new service we are considering that provides the bell curve bias, and whether to long or short, and will define which "type" of option to buy.
It's all an experiment to show how we choose "falling in love with an option"
Lastly, the Floydian Philosophy of Trading needs some repetition for our many new subscribers after the third year win we've had on winning Top 10 Advisory Service Reader's Choice Award in Stocks and Commodities Magazine. So first, here's a taste of what www.bluechipoptions.com is, we will post an excerpt of the commentary each day this week:
· China grows, and Chinese stocks go up, and many analysts believe they will continue to. In fact, we see China Mobile (CHL) and Petro China (PTR) are undervalued.
· Turkey is three years behind the market, and will move up dramatically in years. We’re high on GARAN.Turkey, Turyklye Garanti Bankasi on the Turkish Exchange.
This will be hard to find to trade, but check with your brokerage:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garanti_Bank
· We are also high on CZZ, Cosan, on the advent of what we think are higher sugar prices.
· Each of these above stocks we will list in our stock charts, and begin posting as buys. We want to buy on any dip to 10,780 or less. And hold.
· We will then hold each of the above positions with a 25% trailing stop loss, in our Speculative portfolio, also utilizing PnF charts.
· If your holdings approach 50, trim positions.
We will also be testing a formula this week for a new service we are considering that provides the bell curve bias, and whether to long or short, and will define which "type" of option to buy.
It's all an experiment to show how we choose "falling in love with an option"
Lastly, the Floydian Philosophy of Trading needs some repetition for our many new subscribers after the third year win we've had on winning Top 10 Advisory Service Reader's Choice Award in Stocks and Commodities Magazine. So first, here's a taste of what www.bluechipoptions.com is, we will post an excerpt of the commentary each day this week:
· China grows, and Chinese stocks go up, and many analysts believe they will continue to. In fact, we see China Mobile (CHL) and Petro China (PTR) are undervalued.
· Turkey is three years behind the market, and will move up dramatically in years. We’re high on GARAN.Turkey, Turyklye Garanti Bankasi on the Turkish Exchange.
This will be hard to find to trade, but check with your brokerage:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garanti_Bank
· We are also high on CZZ, Cosan, on the advent of what we think are higher sugar prices.
· Each of these above stocks we will list in our stock charts, and begin posting as buys. We want to buy on any dip to 10,780 or less. And hold.
· We will then hold each of the above positions with a 25% trailing stop loss, in our Speculative portfolio, also utilizing PnF charts.
· If your holdings approach 50, trim positions.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Bombarded and Embedded
First trading day in April, Dow up 12 of last 15, 2008 +3.2%, 2009 +2.0%. NASDAQ up 13 of 15 day before good Friday, 9 straight since 2001
Good Friday tomorrow, market closed, Easter on Sunday
The market showed consistent reversal, opening at 10,907 and hitting a theoretical Dow low of 10,793. We good support lines at 10,650-10687 and think this area the market could move to, and from there, more upbound. With negative futures no entry should have been made to the call, and we will list the same call again, to follow futures,and to note the higher risk, as the market struggles. Our put hedge is a May issue. It will show nice profits without too much time erosion if we're right a correction is close to occurring in the 3% area from market highs.
Every day I hear that 17,000 IRS agents are out to make sure the census is taken and to "watch us" and each day I hear all taxes will have to be raised because of Obamacare.
It's an example of false facts in the market. Some of the above is true, some is out of context, and some is totally untrue. We have to filter these false facts out of unemployment figures,
U Of M Sentiment, what and where tax increases will be. Remember, you are bombarded and now embedded with data
Good Friday tomorrow, market closed, Easter on Sunday
The market showed consistent reversal, opening at 10,907 and hitting a theoretical Dow low of 10,793. We good support lines at 10,650-10687 and think this area the market could move to, and from there, more upbound. With negative futures no entry should have been made to the call, and we will list the same call again, to follow futures,and to note the higher risk, as the market struggles. Our put hedge is a May issue. It will show nice profits without too much time erosion if we're right a correction is close to occurring in the 3% area from market highs.
Every day I hear that 17,000 IRS agents are out to make sure the census is taken and to "watch us" and each day I hear all taxes will have to be raised because of Obamacare.
It's an example of false facts in the market. Some of the above is true, some is out of context, and some is totally untrue. We have to filter these false facts out of unemployment figures,
U Of M Sentiment, what and where tax increases will be. Remember, you are bombarded and now embedded with data
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