Sunday, October 30, 2011
We Don't Have the Capital to Support Capitalism
The first trading day in November the Dow has been down 4 of the last 5 years, but up in 2009.
We don't have the capital to support capitalism. So the sovereign debt end of the world players speak, and I predict we will have a euro crisis ( in process) that could and should lead to a United States of Europe. Gerhardt Schroder writes in The Christian Science Monitor that the wold order is so shook now that this is likely to occur. Mr. Schroder is the former Chancellor of Germany, and a member of the Nicolas Bergruen Institute 21st Century Council.
This is not JIm Cramer, but someone smart. Done right, Sarah Palin fans, we will become a GLOBAL POWER.
Click Here for a listing of a number of his articles and thinking.
Cheniere Energy just signed a game-changing deal.
On Wednesday, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal operator signed an $8 billion deal with international natural gas giant BG Group. The 20-year agreement includes BG exporting natural gas – from the U.S. to Asia and Europe – through Cheniere's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana.
The Sabine Pass is an 850-acre LNG transportation facility. It has a 40-foot ship canal and five tanks capable of storing over 17 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The facility is 90% owned by Cheniere. It's expected to export LNG oversees by 2015.
We would and will hold only CHK (Chesapeake Energy and Cheniere Energy (LNG) in the long run core holding to natural gas. This sector has been flat for all too long.
Last week all of you lived to go short. Every day at least 5 to 10 subscribers begged me for a put signal, and begged me to explain WHY the market was going up.
Because of the negativity in the world conversely few asked what was going on as the market headed to oblivion a few short weeks ago.
We also now have proof the Pee Party came in "representing the people", became Pube Puppets and our Congress remains frozen. They came in naive, all having read the Constitution perhaps once, and all believing in Christianity.
Overall there is Dow support at 11,398 and resistance at 12,400 area.
Over the long term (6 weeks) we see a bull market, perhaps the top for the year.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
The Power of Stupid People
Commentary:
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF STUPID PEOPLE IN LARGE GROUPS. This is one of the most important things I will ever teach you.
The History Place - Rise of Hitler: Hitler Runs for President
http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/riseofhitler/runs.htm
This is an interesting article to show you WHY some run for President and why there are certain times in history that someone is elected that it's done on country psychological need, despite the absurdity of the person
From MP, again. MP is a trader that fought every part of our system, broke every rule and drove me nuts for several years. He persisted in not following the rules, using his religion in stock trading and has now hit his groove. All of his trading methodology is based on Floydian logic. I'm really proud of him.
"Hey brother..
For starters...I want to thank you again for your support and encouragement...our relationship is not only making me a successful trader...but a better husband and Father. I'm learning so much from you and it's all beginning to click..
Last night I sold the Euro Dollar at 1.3790 and bought it back at 1.3740 for a quick 50 pips..and then I began my day by buying the euro dollar at 1.3805 and selling at 1.3890 for a solid 85 pips of profit...
You know..Jared Martinez from Market Traders Institute insists that if a person can net average 100 pips of profit per week or 400-500 per month...then he or she can become a millionaire...
Since July...I've been averaging 100 pips of profit per week..EASILY....
Now listen....I'm no where close to being a millionaire...but I'm learning the skills to getting there! And much of what you taught me I have applied to the Forex market...
_________________________________________
Anyway...I had some errands to run today so I didn't have much time to trade after 10:00-10:30am...
But when I saw the DOW hitting 11,760 and the OEX hitting 559 at about 10:15 eastern time...I couldn't resist and bought my Dad the 560 NOV put for 17.40.....
I knew this was a key resistance level and I figured she would stall and retrace to at least the 38% fibo level for the day..
If the low of the day for the OEX was 549.83 and the high was 559.14...the 38% fibonocci retracement was roughly 555.60...
So I bought the put at 17.40 and used my theoretical pricer on my trading platform to see what my option would be worth if the OEX hit the 38 level at 555.60...I was given a range of about 19.40-19.70 at that level...
So I put a sell order in for 19.50 and went out to run errands with my daughters..
Came back 2 hours later and she was easily filled as price because she actually retraced to the 61.8% level...I could have made another 1.00 per contract but seriously? How do you know? I wasn't even home to watch it...So for me the safest play was the 38% retracement level..especially since I couldn't monitor the computer...
So once again...thanks to you...I made my Dad 12% on his money in 2 hours...and I was out doing other things!
Total winnings on the year are now up to $19,000...
I feel as though I've learned a great gift..your patience with me is finally paying off!!
Thank you my friend.
Enjoy the weekend."
Here''s the trigger points for this coming week: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Here's what the chartists tell us.
-- SPY AND DIA MAKE BREAKOUT BIDS
-- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SECTOR LEADS HIGHER
-- STEEL ETF AND AIRLINE ETF FORM FLAG CONSOLIDATIONS
-- HOMEBUILDING ETFS GO FROM LAGGARDS TO LEADERS
All free governments are managed by the wisdom and folly of people and are far from truly free. We live in a plutocracy, not a democracy.
James A. Garfield, 20th President of the U.S.
What has stood out most in our successes as a stock and option trading service we'll be repeating again this week, as many of you lost money on sale of "basket stocks" we owned but paralyzed in buying blue chip stocks up and taking back the profits. Study our Dow projections as we've exacted the science of how to trade off the Dow and S/R lines.
--
there is a zen to art of trading. Be it.
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Illogical Logic
I have steps to our dialogue this week:
1. We are entering our 5th week in the same Dow Cycle. Highs are possible as October ends the Dow's "worst six months" and the "correction" occurred. Doomsayers may go back under the rock for the time.
2. Today is Columbus Day so the banks and government are closed. For those of you with good minds, please piss on them. The rest of us work.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
3. "Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune, if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong." - Bernard Baruch
4. Money was made so many ways last week I'm still surprised. Many traders day traded stocks (such as MP with his wins for his Dad and himself going in and out of just a few stocks), or in retiring 20% in two weeks in a stock recommendation
5. OEX option trading is harder than it has ever been because the swings are so volatile and huge that premiums and erosion planning vanish. Watch all of our signals during this time period and don't be geared just to an option. Volatility is so extreme that we have to use extreme prudence in any trade.
6. "The most successful positions I've taken have been those about which I've been most nervous, but ignored the emotion. Courage is not about begin fearless; courage is about acting appropriately even when you are fearful." - Daniel Turov
7. I have learned in trading commodities, or cash derivatives, that the law of supply and demand is first led by the law of cause and effect, not the usual reverse, and commodity futures are more on "money" than supply and demand.
8. Nenner believes that Gold cold reach 1700 and Silver 34.00 yet still be in a corrective cycle. Cycles bottom by the end of October.
9. Oil may continue to rally as long as we don't have a close below 81.00
10. I believe we are at or near the bottom of this cycle. It appears we've bottomed but we'll watch a day or two and then continue building long positions. As you know Floyd has been buying equities in our existing portfolio for the last 1000 points of drop, insistent the market is being manipulated for short term gain and political plays on the parts of the Pubes. For those of you not clear on Pubes it is my nasty name for pubic hair Republicans that are acting as our leaders. I'm embarrassed right now to be an American, and I do not believe we the either the most powerful country, nor the greatest, on earth. Our hubris amazes me.
11. Natural gas continues a flat cycle. We still like CHK as a good long term Natural Gas play with a CEO that buys into his business and runs it like a complete crook. Chesapeake has a good long term cycle to it.
I spent the last two weeks on a great experiment in psychology, human nature and the character-ology of the personality type that "must be right" and to "win" uses a form of logic that is indisputable. I believe this form of logic so frightening, maddening, and damaging that I've been commissioned as a consultant to prepare a study on this type of argument, and I'm beginning an article and lecture series on how "those that must win" (evangelical Bible Thumpers are a perfect example) use a form of logic within their verbal or written argument to you that makes it impossible to respond. It's called Illogical Logic. You'll see several movies on this over the week as its' a clear way how to beat yourself, and beat the market.
_____________________________________
Floyd's Favorite FAQ of the week:
"Everything I read on CNBC and in the news shares that the market has no financial strength and that Obama's debt will take the stock market down Why should I trade?"
2/3 of the sovereign debt increases that have occurred since 1960 were signed in by Pube Presidents.
71% of the current U.S. debt was accumulated by George W. Bush. It is rumored that George is now reading every day. He told 60 minutes last month that he reads the Wall Street Journal. Wow. HIs skills are up, he is reading, but it's Murdoch lies. If one adds amortized debt for increases in existing, NOT NEW, government issues the debt that Obama inherited was 81.3% of our overall debt.
The reader is being influenced by illogical logic. Take prudent risk
Last but not least I am getting ready right now to BRIBE you. Please be open. For four years our little company of myself, daughter Jenn, the apprentice, and Terry Brown, my partner and webmaster have managed to build one of the top ten Readers's Choice Option Advisory Services (2008 thru 2011) and it's my proudest personal achievement.
It is for three reasons:
1. Dad is long gone but he would have been proud
2. We started with nothing and have built this ourselves
3. Traders world wide compliment the unique style and methodology we use.
So here's my bribe:
-Read the attachment that came that offers you a one year FREE subscription to Stocks and Commodities Magazine merely for subscribing to OEX Options. For those of you that are already paying (not on trials) subscribers your subscriptions are on order and you'll be receiving notification shortly. If you already subscribe I'm sure Stocks and Commodiites will combine your subscriptions.
-Find your customer # of the magazine and help to vote OEX in as one of the top ten Readers Choice Options Trading Systems.
Here's how:
1. Go to http://traders.com
2. Top right there is a box that says 2012 Readers Choice Awards
3. Sign in and enter your new subscription # and last name.
4. The group Options Trading systems is on page 4 of their website. Vote for us!
5. And finally, don't forget, go page 5 and hit submit!
SUCCESS! You have really done all of us a favor and you have been bribed. Better yet you get a full year subscription to the best trade magazine Stocks and Commodities in the industry!
PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO HELP US. VOTE!! DEADLINE IS DECEMBER 31ST, 2011
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Question All Authority
Commentary: Please log-in to view the movie on the website today for a verbal update on this weekly commentary. And also do the following three things, to learn stock market success:
1. Question all authority.
2. Question all government, voting facts, and corporate facts. Most are lies.
3. Distrust anyone that believes it is harmful to them to let others have more. These are people that have not learned what humanity is. You have no time for them.
The chartist point of view:
-- OVERSOLD GERMAN STOCKS ARE TRYING TO STABILIZE
-- GERMAN ISHARES ARE ALSO TESTING SUPPORT AT THEIR 2010 LOWS
-- FOREIGN ETFS INCORPORATE DOLLAR TRENDS AND, IN MY VIEW, ARE BETTER TO CHART
-- NASDAQ COMPOSITE STALLS AT 2600 RESISTANCE
-- AN OCTOBER DROP COULD LEAD TO MARKET BOTTOM
-- FALLING RATES AND RISING VIX ARE HELPING UTILITIES
Real Facts: This is my anger and the point of the dialogue we will create this week about illogical logic. This occurs when you are arguing with someone that argues illogically; in the end, you are bound to lose
71% of the current U S debt was accumulated during Republican presidential terms. 2/3 of sovereign debt increases have been signed into debt by Republicans since 1960
In 1961 the average American corporation paid in 40.5% in taxes vs. 10.5% in 2011.
These are examples to show you how you have been mis-led, and how you begin to believe the misleading as the fact when it is the reverse.
Another example is to see the illogical person take the real fact and when answering it change the subject. This is called Illogical logic and is an article I'm preparing to share with all of you this week, that I use in my consulting practice.
Read this carefully. This is after eight years of Bush creating "Leave no Child a Dime". Ask a teacher what they think is going on with our educational system. In Texas we have re-written the history books already to make it all look good.
I am trying to show fair perspective but here's a quote to show just how fucked up we are. I will bet that 98% of the U.S. does not even know what quantitative means or is, and 1% misunderstand it. From an economic standpoint I have seen no other point of view or plan that resolves a forty year problem. Further, from the Pubes or Pea Partiers, I hear nothing. They have told me clearly, and you too, all we are doing wrong.
I have yet to see any portion of any plan, of any response. Answering "getting out of debt" is tough for me when they accumulated 71% of it.
Here's a sad story: The question was What is an American? The correct and only correct answer is: Someone with a green visa card up to date, a passport, and citizenry in either the U.S. or its territories or Canada.
Below I've read a typical "OMG" email. The rest of the linked in group seemed to forget that there is a South, Central and Latin America. When reminded they "did not see this part of the world as "the question asked) WTF) or better, "people all over the world see Americans as U.S. citizens. They do not think of Canada or the other countries.
WTF? These people are allowed to vote?
LinkedIn Groups...
Group: Leadership Think Tank
Discussion: Define What is an American.
A USA american is the sucker who will never have the retirement or any other benefits he was promised his entire working life. He is being cheatred out of them by the very polititions he elected to protect and serve him. They have been paid too much graft for the last 100 years to care at all of the people who put them in power these warnings were even made public in the 1930,s by Jimmy Stewart. Today your future is being stolen from you by devalueing the country thru this new thing called Quantitative easing which is stealing your savings and purchasing power as fast as it can, not only in US but Europe as well. The major american corperation that has stolen the very life blood of that once great country now reside worldwide keeping their ever growing assets outside the country that nurtured their growth and they bled to it's last breadth. I truly feel sorry for americans for they are too stupid to even know what is happening to them.
Floyd: this is illogical logic. There is no proof, validation, or economic back up. Just a theory. And he blames the politicians. Please remember it is YOU as an American that voted for George Bush twice. I blame Americans, not politicians. We are what we decide.
We are close to doing the same thing again. This man blames "who" for this. He has no idea that the banks almost all closed the first week of Obama being in office. Long after Paulson had given his friends all the 785 billion FAST before the term was up.
For those of you that would like to get past lobbying and want the tax answer: legalize pot.
Read more at http://bit.ly/mOQGZ6
This is reverse logic. The liquor companies lobby against this, as do the "religious right". We miss a mighty tax revenue in the name of absolutism and prohibition which of course fails
-- STOCKS SHOW LOTS OF MOVEMENT AND NO REAL CHANGE
-- DECLINE IN ADX REFLECTS LACK OF TREND IN SPY
-- XLK AND XLY FAIL AT KEY RETRACEMENTS
-- RETAILERS HOLD THE KEY TO XLY
-- NYSE AD VOLUME LINE BREAKS AUGUST LOW
-- AROON DOWN TRIGGERS BEARISH SIGNAL IN NY COMPOSITE
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