Monday, April 21, 2008

Events Will Trigger Movement

This is the same URL to the economic calendar we include in the morning alert:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

Astute traders with our service STUDY our alerts, and KNOW that events will trigger movement.

The market moved up in pure euphoria on Friday, showing why old Floyd could not read the market. Good old Google, a holding we have in Blue Chip Options (www.bluechipoptions.com) had excellent earnings, yet again displacing the "experts" opinions, while Citi showed 5.1 billion in losses, yet less than analysts had projected, and the market skyrocketed.

In early afternoon risk traders followed a new alert for a first buy at 12.20 or less to the May 640P, with buys made immediately at 11.70, and possible sales to 13.70 within two hours.

Astute traders took tight profits and ended the week with another nice gain. If you bought, and missed this gain, remember two things:
1. Our sell prices are recommendations of TOP sells. Always look for taking fast profits. Where else could one return $3.00 a contract, 25% returns, in less than two hours?
2. There is ALWAYS a chance to buy again.
Never fear, if you bought this higher risk trade...there will be time, as although it's likely now for more upside in the short term, all is not well, things are not better, and we are merely in an "upturn" cycle.

"Hey Floyd, Nice alert! Got in the May640P at $11.60 and sold at $13.30. didn't want to hold open over the weekend. Thanks.” - D

"Joined Level 3 four months ago. Paper traded for 90 days. I have profited over $9k in the past month, and after finding you realized that I've spent way too much money in the past buying signal services and failing. You are truly a mentor, feel free to use me as a reference. Thanks” -B

Now, is this a bull market rally, OR a bear market rally? The key question. Floyd remains suspicious. There is no real REASON for the rally. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. From a technical standpoint, Mike Gibbons, the Hawaii breakout trader analyst, says it well:

"The markets gapped-up at the open twice this week (Wednesday and Friday) and delivered accumulation days on each of them. A gap up often indicates a bullish change in sentiment so it’s possible that this week marks a real turnaround. Another indication that there may be mood shift is the number of breakouts seen this week. The successful breakout count jumped to 30 after just 12 last week and an average of 14 over the last 13 weeks. This was the highest number of breakouts for the year. The average gain by these breakouts until Friday's close was 5.15% compared the gain of 4.9% for the NASDAQ Composite, 4.8% for the Russell 2000, 4.3% for the S&P 500 and 4.3% for the DJI.

Friday's gains were significant but constrained by resistance at 2419 for the NASDAQ and 1396 for the S&P 500. We commented two weeks ago that the major indexes were on the point of a double-bottom breakout and that remains true for the NASDAQ, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 while the DJI, led by energy stocks, did close above its pivot this week. Due to the influence of energy on the DOW this breakout is suspect until the broader market follows-through. A breakout above the respective pivots for the other two indexes would be a further indication that the current rally has legs. We would like to see higher volumes though. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 volumes have been anemic and have barely reached the 50 day average even on accumulation days. DJI and S&P 500 volumes have only been marginally better"

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