All is Good

The text in this blog is taken from the daily alerts I send to subscribers of my OEX Options trading instruction service at OEX Options


Ahh, euphoria. All is good. And the market topped a theoretical Dow of 13,033 before a downward slide near the end of the day. All calls were profitable. And now, the market talking heads will tell us that "upside is on its way" and the worst might be over.

A few words from subscribers:


Floyd:

"scaled into 80 contracts from 16.80 to 15.80. Sell orders filled at 17.80 & 19.00, waiting for final fill at 21.00.

Another winner......on top of the 630 Call. Monday, flipped 20 contracts for $5k.

No emotion.......

Of course I'm having fun.....but always in the back of my head, don't get greedy....

Honestly, in 3 months I've banked around $150k and still working a $100k full time job.

Thank you, It's taken some heavy losses to finally "get it", but thanks to your instruction, reseach, and Floydian intuition, I definately have become a much better trader.

I also try to use the poker philosophy, don't count your money at the table, because the table will end up with your money. BTW, I don't gamble, I have an addictive personality...:)

Trader BD

From: Trader RC

Floyd,

Thanks for another very successful trade. It is greatly appreciated. I actually am beginning to feel the market a bit. Today I sold at $19.40 before the afternoon Dow jump because it appeared our price was not moving much with large moves in the OEX. Also, I heeded your top advisement of 13,000 on the Dow.

I have made it through Dorsey’s book over the weekend and I am making my way through Wyckoff’s this week. My wife asked, “isn’t that stuff really boring?” I just smiled. This is an absolute joy because I feel like a kid again - fully absorbed in learning something new.

I am sure you hear this all the time however I will tell you I started my trading account with $77,000 in late March and it is now at $102k and some change. That is with a boat load of self made mistakes (my own trades initiated with no data to back them up - losses of at least 10k), and not really following your model fully until three weeks ago.




From PC in Germany, with Floyd responses in bold
Hi Ffloyd,

I bought the Jun 640C yesterday at 16.50. Dow and OEX obeyed your instructions nicely today. The Dow reached your theoretical projection of 13000, actual 12960ish, after a bit of a struggle to break 12980 theoretical. Looking at where the Dow was at 13000 I couldn't see much more mileage in the OEX and thus the 640C. TOS got me 19.30 on a tick of 19.50 so, nice.

I was "rewarded" on this decision by the price reversing almost immediately after I sold so please do take personal pride that your students are coming along :-)

Exactly right.

I'm still buying in single contracts and so now hold no inventory and am happy with this position. I can comfortably tell myself I've made my money for the day. I made 17% in actual cash profit as a strong resistance point proved to be a reversal point.

So my question is not greed but philiosophy - I ask the following so that I can watch.

You have the expression "falling in love" with an option. I neither presume nor hope that this is an occasion for it, based on your recent projections we are too close to a top for this - right? But in order to be in love for the day you must be reading the moves of hours day fairly accurately too and not just taking your lead from your overall projections which in finest detail is a day and by default up to 5 days. To buy more than once in one day you are confident that the drop which let you back in is not in fact a reversal but retracement within that trading day.

Yes, right now I'm not yet in love with the 640C, because of so much potential for reversal. What happened after you sold is a good example of the struggle.

So, with so much of the trading day remaining, how do you see it going from here? 2 hours into it. How do you "spot" a retracement intraday? Intraday Fibonacci?

My first hour OEX pivot calculations show pivot at 647.49 and R1 at 650.10, my own limited experience says to me that the OEX will now flap about between these points for the next couple of hours - comment?

First hour ATR shows potential high of 653.39, potential low 640.40.

We'll see how this plays out, but I suspect the market will break 13,000 today (or tomorrow) and the bulls will be babbling all over the place that it's getting better, and we'll then quickly reverse"

Excellent trades Floyd. Out of the 640C at 30% and the 630C at 28%. Haven't missed a trade in so long I'm nervous. I've learned so much from you, but what I've learned most?....The market moves in patterns, and the "idiots" (you're nice) that tell us what is happening know nothing".-NBW


It is very likely the market could lead with more upside. Follow our Dow projections carefully. Calls may still have some short lived strength, but as soon as everyone thinks it's going well, it will fall again. All is NOT as it appears.