Wednesday, June 18, 2008

You Cannot Legislate Morality

June 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said surging oil costs may postpone a rebound in the American economy, which still faces ``challenges'' from the housing slump and credit crunch.

``The recent increase in oil prices risks prolonging the U.S. economic downturn,'' Paulson said in a statement at the end of a meeting of Group of Eight finance ministers in Osaka, Japan. Still, he said ``we also expect to see a faster pace of U.S. economic growth before the end of the year.''

The price of oil reached an unprecedented $139.12 a barrel on June 6, helping to drive consumer confidence in the world's biggest economy to the lowest level since 1980. The G-8 finance ministers met with rising commodity costs topping their agenda.

Please elect smartly. This man is supposedly a financial wizard. He is our U.S. Treasury Secretary.

A six year old could have made this statement 8 months ago.:)

Last week in Missouri on a Sunday I attempted to buy a six pack of non alcoholic beer before 9 a.m. at the grocery store. Of course, the Christians are in charge here, and no beer purchases were allowed.

Dumbfounded, I asked why, and was told with a straight face "No liquor during Sunday church hours".

At my home in Florida it is okay to carry a concealed weapon (even on Sundays). We have perspective, although it's likely also don't allow liquor purchases before praying.

Just as with abortion, sin, pornography, and prohibition, you cannot legislate morality. When we as a nation learn that not all of our citizens are Christians, or that laws like "no liquor" are a sad waste of our time, we'll improve. It is little things like this that have created the big things that are our issues. We keep trying to make others like us. It is what creates war.

From our traders, some interesting thoughts:

1.

"Floyd,

I have to calm down and take a step back .
Yes . I think this is all about me.

If several last e-mail i sent to you was good news.
This one's different. I had lost lot enough from my growing account . since dow drop 2 weeks ago.

So I take a step back and began to see clearly what i've done.
Problem is I take too much risk ( contract ) as my confidence with you is growing. ,so when the big waves came.. it almost hit me back to the beach.

Thanks god i'm still in the water...

When I read Disciplined Trader ( Mark douglas ) , i'm realized i have to work on the three reasons he stated in his book
- LACK OF SKILLS , -LIMITING BELIEFS, -LACK OF SELF DISCIPLINE

and I still have to learn on the last point (SELF-DISCIPLINE )

That's my opinion... after that I think i will move to the next level ( advanced learning with you ) .

2 last days is giving my confidence back.. thanks Floyd

regards
BK "


2. "Regarding your alert:

I was a bit confused yesterday. You alert stated that "if the futures are up, pay only up to prior day close."

The futures were down before the bell...hence the lower open. Because the market opened lower, I thought I had to buy the 620 call position BELOW the 12.00 price. The lowest the price got yesterday was 12.40. BUT it actually hit that price during the beginning of the trading session (first half hour). Being that we opened lower, I thought it would be too risky to buy that early in the session, therefore, I missed the entry at that price.

I guess the question I have is that when the bias is very low, and when the market opens opposite to your bias, how do you decided when to enter? The market could have just as easily stayed below the pivot all day yesterday and no money would have been made on this position. I continue to have difficulty picking an entry point. Are you consistent with your entry plan or do you just jump in early and have no problem making second buys because you have the capital? I would like to minimize my second buys if I can, or at least maintain an advantageous buying position. Does that make sense? The bottom line is I missed the 12.40 entry position, actually, I did not enter at all because I was not comfortable with the opening. What would you look for yesterday that would have supported a buy at 13.00?"

"Floyd: When the count is as low as it is, yesterday and today, only an experienced trader would take the plunge to buy.
I did. Many others did. Many did not.
Much of this is knowing that the best buy and the top sells that I list are INDICATORS. If following the market well with experience one might have made the first buy, knowing a second buy might be necessary, and yes, it does come from capital available."

When you miss a trade, you miss a trade. This is one of the hardest things to learn. As I say when this happens "so be it".
If I sell too early and miss greater profits, it has taken me years to learn "great, I did make some profits", and not to chastise myself for what I "could have made".

Practice makes perfect:)


3.

"For some reason, I've been thinking that I HAVE to or SHOULD make money every day because the market does make it available. I need to let that stuff go and trade smart so I can protect and slowly build my nest egg. You are helping me to become patient and conservative with my trading. Thanks for the support.
Have a great day today."

Market conditions until 2.15 p.m. yesterday showed true flat lining, or trade range movement. This typically occurs before "something happens". We believe the market may be a cusp of euphoric "turn around" with a potential last burst of negative downside. There is NO bias to the market, with a count that shifts only minutely, and options that are trending only lightly.

Several traders have recently asked about "bid/ask" and how important these are in the market. As a trader I NEVER look at bid/ask, but only look at "last" price, as it is my goal in "selling my bananas" to get WHAT THE market will bear, or to BUY at what the market will allow. Using bid/ask in such a way only shows you the history of what was gotten in price, and what someone wants to get. We only care about WHAT WE WANT, not what is.

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