Friday, August 15, 2008

I Just Hit 90 Percent!

"I just hit 90% on a call trade. Not too bad :). Otherwise I have noticed that the fear and greed I had trouble with is just gone. I didn't really notice when it happened. Maybe it can come back so I will keep it quiet. It has taken over a year but worth it all the way. Have not had any great news to report but when I hit 90% I will toot the horn. Say hi to Lacey from another dog lover."
Ya know, I was thinking that 90 % would not make sense unless I mentioned that I bought the Aug 600 call for .75 cents and sold for $1.4. I was going to sit back and not trade until the futures tanked. At 90% I was overwhelmed. I saw that it has hit $3.5 and did not care. That's the part that was good, not caring.-T in Oregon


"Floyd:


Evaluating todays action.

Low 11450
High 11718

Difference 268

50% retrace occured around 3 pm at 11585

Is this to short of a timeframe to consider another buy opportunity for a move to top projection 11840"
Bill D.
Yesterday allowed a perfect trade to the September590Call, with entry possible at 15.00, and sales to a high of 19.70.

We begin the day profitable on each signal so far this week.

The Dow hit tops of 11,748 by afternoon trading, and lows in the morning of 11,410. We believe it is possible for yet another upside run, right to the top of our Dow projections, but the longer term bullish run will not last.

As Bill notes above....the market retraced. We consider upside potential still likely, but very close to topping. News will drive the final trigger. 12,000 is not likely. Just below it, could happen. But, puts are almost a buy, and the market may still surprise the bulls, as we consider the rally fleeting.

Floyd's Rant:

Whenever I hear that the Democrats will raise taxes, I smile. For those of you not yet initiated to how economics works:), our taxes have already been raised. The trick is on us.
Although we pay less in taxes, and have received refunds, nothing in Congress has been slowed in spending, and the cost of our food, gas and general products have surged with inflationary cost. Thusly, we have less money, and a USD that is worth less money.

Our taxes are already raised.

In some time our citizenry will begin to understand what the cost of the deficit really is.

As commodities fall we continue to buy Gold and Silver.

"The delusion that there are stable things out there is like seeing a whirlpool in a river and thinking that it is a solid, permanent thing, when in reality it is constantly changing flow that just looks like a stable and constant thing."

When we can understand that a rock is not hard, we can begin to trade the market.

_____

Gold is off 11% from its recent high. Commodities are off by 20% or more. Oil has dropped to 112.00 a barrel this week in its first correction.

Oil speculators now believe that as European and Japanese economies continue to weaken the dollar's new strength will push down prices of commodities that are USD led.

Floyd remains suspicious of the USD move, and of just how long oil will remain "low". Most analysts believe we've broken barriers and upside will now be muted. However, some economists believe this demand weakness is only temporary, and that a bounce back will take place.

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