We believe market conditions are now at a classic standstill point, with hesitancy as the market approaches 9000, and fear over the "small three bail out."
December issue options are now eroding quickly, and January 09 OEX options remain high priced. We'll move to January expiry today, noting the premium, and that we will see some erosion in time quickly.
With this said, it's important you are reading all the fodder the talking heads are giving us. Some believe the deflationary cycle will not stop, the market will vastly worsen, and others believe a bull rally may actually occur after the first of the year.
The truth: Not one of them really knows.
In our Dow projections we define THREE distinct bottoms, and TWO distinct tops. There is no pattern to how they could play out, and although two way trades may be likely, the risk increases around the "small three" bail out.
On a political note, all of us should cry and scream over the most recent politician fervor, this time a slimey Democrat Governor in Illinois that it appears has broken every rule of ethics, and stupidity. If true, may he rot in jail.
Many subscribers have written to dialogue on the bail out of the "small 3." Allow me my soap box:
*These are greedy idiots, from the top executives to the UAW, and they historically have made lousy products. They bet on Hummers and F150's. Tough.
*The State of Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana will literally bankrupt without some form of a bailout.
*Bankruptcy may still occur, and it could be a waste of money. But who cares, we waste this much in Iraq in a month, folks, for a fool's game.
*Right now let Paul Volcker be the car czar, he's a smart man, and let's fire all the top idiots at the car companies.
Above all, quit reading the doomsayers telling us the "end of the world" by next summer, or a depression that lasts 20 years. Here's why......during Maverick McCain promises, and Obama promises just a few short months ago....remember the talk on taxes and debt...and note we are nowhere near this now, and it's a whole different game...and it will be again in the first 100 days.
The bottom line: no one knows.
The December420P was available as low as as 7.80 in early trading yesterday, and sold to highs of 11.60 by 2.45 p.m. Some traders reported trading for profits "twice".
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