Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Testing November Lows is Possible

Everyone spoke yesterday. You've read the news. The talking heads can take no time for breathing. There is hope they may suffocate :)

The market allowed call day traders quick 1.00 per contract profits on both oexoptions.com and bluechipoptions, and we are combining services today because our commentary is around new Dow projections, and how we've fared. All buys to puts earlier this week have been profitable to our top range, and well beyond. Two buys have been made to our call, both OTM, and ATM (in OEX).

Sale prices will take place right now around the Dow projection bottom and tops we see. With the market initially reacting to the stimulus package negatively, the market achieved our projected bottoms at a theoretical Dow of 7821 by 3.30 p.m. EST.

Testing November lows is possible, to 7700, or just below it. Further move downwards would be based on how the market overall long term reacts to this stimulus package, and whether fear or greed win.

If greed is in the projections the market will hesitate at 8000, at 8150, at 8250, a strong resistance line,and perhaps 8350. Each hundred points here is important, as the market must climb past where fear has set in before.

We believe market upturn could reach 8350, and as high as 8550, on any positive reaction. We will hold all open calls, two or more buys made, through Thursday stop loss.

If futures are extremely negative we suggest not trading until midday, letting the market itself settle out. Our puts have been profitable, now let's see if the calls can hit it.

As we've stated, this is a massively high risk market, with whipsaw that is hard to even see occur it happens so fast, and with no history to show us a perspective of prior emotional reactions.

We have no new signal. Hold open calls and let's watch market conditions today.

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