The world fears on Dubai banks and the "shell game of finance" being pulled hit the market hard last Friday, with theoretical Dow bottoms of 10,191 hit in early trading we may have had our consolidation. The market held and rebounded to our support area around 10,300. This puts the bias, believe it or not, as zero....enough gyrations in the market.
This coming week will better define Dubai's 60 billion of debt that they've asked for a 6 month extension on, and we believe the Dubai debacle MAY be the trigger that leads commercial real estate into the decline we have been projecting, and anticipating.
Study our new Dow projections carefully.
The first trading day in December the NASDAQ led the market up for 9 of 10 years through 2005, with back to back losses in 2006 and 2007. Over the Thanksgiving week we saw a market that held at higher highs, but struggled each time approaching the 10,550 resistance line. The argument goes that now the individual investor and more of the funds are going to move cash to the market, as they don't want to "miss out," and with more assurances that the economy is turning around (by the market again leading the public emotion).
We approach strong market tops, that show how fast we have returned 68% from our lowest low. 10,746 area is a strong testing ground.
In the prior 10 "recessions" the GDP dropped an average of 2.8. In this one it's been 3.8%.
In the prior 10 "recessions" unemployment dropped in total 1.8%. In this one it's been 5.1%.
In the prior 10 "recessions" increases to the public debt averaged 12.1 billion. In this one it's been 2.1 trillion
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This is an interesting commentary, by an actor, yet as I read his blogs, there is sense to how he speaks, and what he says here, ....it's what happened to us:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alec-baldwin/the-republican-way-keepin_b_369123.html
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