A Complete Crap Shoot

As the market opened my brokerage summarized the "news":

* Stocks open flat after Obama speech, data
* Durable goods orders climb while jobless claims dip
* Ford posts first full-year net profit since 2005
* AT&T earnings up 26 percent, driven by wireless
* P&G, Colgate top expectations as consumers spend more


With such "news" the market dropped 48 points. Oversold, with hesitancy, with fear, and struggles at clear support lines.

And the chartists reported: JANUARY ROTATION OUT OF EMERGING MARKETS AND BASIC MATERIALS INTO CONSUMER STAPLES AND HEALTCHARE SHOWS MOVE AWAY FROM RISK AND TOWARD SAFETY -- TECHNOLOGY IS FALLING HARD TODAY AND IS PULLING REST OF MARKET LOWER -- DAILY EMA LINES TURN NEGATIVE AND WEEKLIES WEAKEN -- THAT'S INDICATIVE OF AN INTERMEDIATE CORRECTION OF AT LEAST 10%

After dual profits on 1/27 we did not provide a new signal yesterday because of our own concern about the oversold conditions, and the lower volume light whipsaw. And whipsaw we saw.

Before 2.30 p.m. the market moved from a theoretical high of 10,298 to a low of 10,005. And rebounded again. Veteran traders of OEX, those studying at Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring, could easily have take advantage of these swings. Any OEX ATM option could have been played, put or call, buying below prior day close (call) or around support lines (puts). During the next 45 minutes the market moved 100 points to the upside.

Several months ago I shared that a long term subscriber Johnny K had been diagnosed with large brain tumors that were likely without cure, and that he had only a few months to live.
Johnny shared this with me and we became even better friends (as I am with many subscribers) and I began calling Johnny "just to talk" every week.
Yesterday morning Johnny's daughter wrote to share that Dad had been rushed to the hospital, after his first round of radiation and chemotherapy had just completed, and that the surgeons were to work again, with a bad prognosis.

I have learned so much from Johnny. He is a kind and generous soul that has the character of love, and has truly learned in his life that "we do not know reality", but only know the reality we know.
He understood my teaching "a rock is not hard" and "there is no black and white" from his years of spiritual study, and traded very well, truly enjoying it.

As I write this Johnny is under the knife.

Please think of him, and think of the Haitians, when you think about our government of "boys" fighting to win. I smiled so much during Obama's speech as the GOP stayed seated. Kids in a sandbox.
And good people like Johnny, who is loved by so many, are forgotten.


The market downturn yesterday was severe, with a bottom test right near 10,000 before 12 noon. Bears believe this is the start of a massive 10% overall sell off; bulls believe we are simply consolidating, and the market could now rise 586 points, in segments, from whatever it's lowest low.

Bull or Bear on a Friday? Continued sell off, or upside. My logistician answer: complete crap shoot. But the bulls are trying.