"In every generation, there has to be some fool who will speak the truth as he sees it."
- Boris Pasternak, Russian writer and poet
We are very proud to announce that for the third straight year OEX Options has been rated honorable mention or in the top 10 Option Advisory Services, rated READERS CHOICE award by the prestigious Stocks and Commodities Magazine. As you view our competition as option advisers or educators that were on the list we're even prouder because most of our competition are large firms, in business for many years. We are Floyd, daughter Jenn, and Terry.
We believe our success to be driven by the personal service we offer, direct contact with Floyd at any time, but most importantly is that we will often attempt to teach a new and different way of looking at things. Floyd prides himself on "seeing through bullshit" and acting always with a question as to why I am to do it, and if it is truly "real."
As for the market, what's to say. The market topped again at 10,980 and bottomed at 10,826. Day trades were possible, but we'll keep the same signals open until the market moves.
Obama moved fast on rebuilding the bank collapse, and TARP worked. Regulations, however, have not been put in, and are finally being revved up on. There is no such thing as free enterprise in this country, and the need to regulate is necessary to stop GREED from creating true WORLDWIDE fear.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Ask the Right Questions
Study our Dow Projections. Today we hit a theoretical Dow high of 10,957, and a downside of 10,810. We still hold our hedge put, and have not yet made a second buy.
Yesterday's call recommendation was easily profitable .90 to 1.10 in easy trading.
We'll use this signal again to see if the market will jump above 11,000 for a thrill.
Most people don't get the right answers because they do not ask the right questions.
From The New York Times:
Heading Off the Next Financial Crisis
The case for more — and more nuanced — regulation.
http://s.nyt.com/u/6hf
Yesterday's call recommendation was easily profitable .90 to 1.10 in easy trading.
We'll use this signal again to see if the market will jump above 11,000 for a thrill.
Most people don't get the right answers because they do not ask the right questions.
From The New York Times:
Heading Off the Next Financial Crisis
The case for more — and more nuanced — regulation.
http://s.nyt.com/u/6hf
Friday, March 26, 2010
A Sign of Slippage
"In order to be a great writer (or "investor"), a person must have a built-in, shockproof crap detector." - Ernest Hemingway
Barclays's sees fourth quarter GDP being revised downward to 5.7% from the 5.9% initially reported. This may just be a breath in the market, but three FOMC voters speak. There is enough spook about Bernanke, rising rates, inflation that any leading to debt may trigger the market. The market yesterday gapped up 65 points at opening, not allowing entry to the call unless buying above prior day, and not giving enough decline to our open put to prompt the second buy. At least, at the opening :)
We continue to see a market that may slightly top 11,000, but do not believe it will hold for any extended period without consolidation and we saw it yesterday. On the theoretical Dow the market hit 10,995 before dropping to 10,800 near the end of the day.
A sign of slippage. Upside may again occur, for a short run, but we will not play a new call to end the week. The recommended April call OEX.X APR 2010 540.0000 CALL was available for day trading on whipsaws and was profitable to 1.25 per contract.
But, it's simply too risky. Hitting 11,000...sure it might happen, and sure it could even go up further, and we'll offer new Dow projections, but Floyd remains suspicious. I do not trust euphoria.
If we see a close on the S&P below 1151, and on the Nasdaq below 1924, we believe we will see more and fast consolidation.
Barclays's sees fourth quarter GDP being revised downward to 5.7% from the 5.9% initially reported. This may just be a breath in the market, but three FOMC voters speak. There is enough spook about Bernanke, rising rates, inflation that any leading to debt may trigger the market. The market yesterday gapped up 65 points at opening, not allowing entry to the call unless buying above prior day, and not giving enough decline to our open put to prompt the second buy. At least, at the opening :)
We continue to see a market that may slightly top 11,000, but do not believe it will hold for any extended period without consolidation and we saw it yesterday. On the theoretical Dow the market hit 10,995 before dropping to 10,800 near the end of the day.
A sign of slippage. Upside may again occur, for a short run, but we will not play a new call to end the week. The recommended April call OEX.X APR 2010 540.0000 CALL was available for day trading on whipsaws and was profitable to 1.25 per contract.
But, it's simply too risky. Hitting 11,000...sure it might happen, and sure it could even go up further, and we'll offer new Dow projections, but Floyd remains suspicious. I do not trust euphoria.
If we see a close on the S&P below 1151, and on the Nasdaq below 1924, we believe we will see more and fast consolidation.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
No Bail Outs Ever Again
Bernanke says no bail outs ever again. Treasuries tumble to a five year low as bonds fell sharply at the Treasury Auction. Gold fell below 1000 on the rising dollar, and is now ready for a bounce. The Euro was dramatically down. The DIA hit channels of resistance.
All of this points to a topping. The Dow opened at 10,887 and closed at 10,887. This, using the theoretical Dow, pushed the Dow to 10,927. We find it doubtful the market will exceed 11,000 without a consolidation, or if it does that it will be fleeting.
It becomes boring here, as our put holds it's own, and the call was not trade ready, as the market did not move with any strength.
All of this points to a topping. The Dow opened at 10,887 and closed at 10,887. This, using the theoretical Dow, pushed the Dow to 10,927. We find it doubtful the market will exceed 11,000 without a consolidation, or if it does that it will be fleeting.
It becomes boring here, as our put holds it's own, and the call was not trade ready, as the market did not move with any strength.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
GOP Bullshit -or- God's Away on Business
First we made great profits yesterday! The OEX.X APR 2010 540.0000 CALL was easily available as low as 3.00, far below prior close, and hit $4.10 by 2.40, for a $1.10 per contract profit.
Traders also took entry to the put, noted as our open signal, and we will now hold.
We consider the market just too happy, too many up days, and will not have a new call position today. Let's wait and see how the market holds.
With the Dow industrials climbing to a 17 month high and 90% of stocks are right now straining above their 50 day moving average the market appears ripe for consolidation, and it's the extent of the correction that puzzles the analysts.
The health care bill passed. No one in the GOP voted for it, showing the deep divide in this country, and the intent of the party. Futures were low last evening after the vote.
Whatever your feelings, change occurred. When change occurs, more occurs. This is what Obama is now counting on, to regain momentum in what already appears to be an economy that "may not need a second start, as Krugman thinks.
-Walgreens reports earnings before the market opens
-Existing home sales should show positive data
-The market remains at market tops.
And for a Floydian rant after history has been made. I have spent a year listening to the GOP bullshit hit our lives on socialism, on the great debt Obama is incurring, and how "we did nothing right." This article explains just what really did happen:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/03/green-geithner/7992/
Traders also took entry to the put, noted as our open signal, and we will now hold.
We consider the market just too happy, too many up days, and will not have a new call position today. Let's wait and see how the market holds.
With the Dow industrials climbing to a 17 month high and 90% of stocks are right now straining above their 50 day moving average the market appears ripe for consolidation, and it's the extent of the correction that puzzles the analysts.
The health care bill passed. No one in the GOP voted for it, showing the deep divide in this country, and the intent of the party. Futures were low last evening after the vote.
Whatever your feelings, change occurred. When change occurs, more occurs. This is what Obama is now counting on, to regain momentum in what already appears to be an economy that "may not need a second start, as Krugman thinks.
-Walgreens reports earnings before the market opens
-Existing home sales should show positive data
-The market remains at market tops.
And for a Floydian rant after history has been made. I have spent a year listening to the GOP bullshit hit our lives on socialism, on the great debt Obama is incurring, and how "we did nothing right." This article explains just what really did happen:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/03/green-geithner/7992/
Monday, March 22, 2010
A Consolidation on Friday
The market showed 8 straight day of increases, and hit its 52 week high, before showing signs of consolidation on Friday. Our Dow projections are unique this week in that we have been in the same range for over 35 market days, the longest we've seen in some time. Friday the market hit highs of 10.850, right near our high resistance line, and where the market began correcting around the 10,746 Fib line. And Friday the market took off on consolidation, dropping to 10,654. Look at our Dow projections now and begin to see the pattern we are experiencing.
With a bell curve count to 5 to the put there is more possibility of a deeper downturn, although we may see a retracement and upsurge during Monday's trading. We will only try to trade puts at this time. That is, unless health care? What does happen? Does the market go up or down on this bill passing or failing?
And health care. We saw what the market showed us to do, buy a put, and watch for consolidation. The historic vote on health care will be seen in what way by the stock market?
With a bell curve count to 5 to the put there is more possibility of a deeper downturn, although we may see a retracement and upsurge during Monday's trading. We will only try to trade puts at this time. That is, unless health care? What does happen? Does the market go up or down on this bill passing or failing?
And health care. We saw what the market showed us to do, buy a put, and watch for consolidation. The historic vote on health care will be seen in what way by the stock market?
Friday, March 19, 2010
Three PM
The market had moved less than 100 points by 3 p.m. We consider the 3 p.m hour unique to what is prop up, last minute selling, or manipulation and really take part of our gauge. The count (1 the weakest, 10 the strongest) is 5 to the call. So, by 3 p.m. we had been able to pick up the call, some sell for .50 profits, but most holding an open signal to the call, and a hedge to the put.
Any flat lining, which is what this is, leads to large market moves. We'll watch this Friday, and move to more ITM OEX and SPX issues next week if the market does not show more volatility.
John Murphy, with www.stockcharts.com summarized: NEW 2010 HIGH BY DOW INDUSTRIALS KEEPS DOW THEORY UPTREND INTACT -- UPS AND FDX LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER -- RECENT DOW LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, DUPONT, GE, INTEL, AND WALMART
His statements show our reaching of the Fib tops, and an immediate reversal in the 10,800's. But Blue Chips are performing, adding to a rising market. Surges we saw after 3 p.m. are the bulls trying to break a key resistance area.
Any flat lining, which is what this is, leads to large market moves. We'll watch this Friday, and move to more ITM OEX and SPX issues next week if the market does not show more volatility.
John Murphy, with www.stockcharts.com summarized: NEW 2010 HIGH BY DOW INDUSTRIALS KEEPS DOW THEORY UPTREND INTACT -- UPS AND FDX LEAD TRANPORTS HIGHER -- RECENT DOW LEADERS INCLUDE CISCO, DUPONT, GE, INTEL, AND WALMART
His statements show our reaching of the Fib tops, and an immediate reversal in the 10,800's. But Blue Chips are performing, adding to a rising market. Surges we saw after 3 p.m. are the bulls trying to break a key resistance area.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
The Market Showed Clear Bias
"If we did all the things we are capable of doing, we would literally astound ourselves." - Thomas Alva Edison
The market hit highs of 10,808 yesterday, despite movement of less than 80 points for the day. The market showed clear bias, and may reach 10,900-10,950.
The bulls talked like bulls. And perhaps will find a bit more good news to keep the momentum up.
We'll hold our hedge put through Friday, and watch futures carefully, paying a call if we see a good bias. We are more than overbought despite the low count.
The market hit highs of 10,808 yesterday, despite movement of less than 80 points for the day. The market showed clear bias, and may reach 10,900-10,950.
The bulls talked like bulls. And perhaps will find a bit more good news to keep the momentum up.
We'll hold our hedge put through Friday, and watch futures carefully, paying a call if we see a good bias. We are more than overbought despite the low count.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Caught Up in Euphoria
This is a market that is caught in its' own euphoria. The bulls will not let go, the bears keep trying, and the support and resistance lines merge.
We've seen this repeatedly for over 3 weeks as this market has held itself in a corner.
Smart day traders that already owned inventory were able to fight for tight profits, but all the rest of us sat on the sidelines and gave us the opportunity to buy.
It is now likely that the market will hold up the rest of this week, and start a downside early next week, but again any trigger news will create a bias.
We saw the reaction to the FOMC yesterday in a surprising manner; usually we are used to whipsaw both before the FOMC babbles, and yet again after.
Most of the morning we saw just a slight whipsaw. By 2:17 p..m. we had only seen the market move a TOTAL of 60 points. That's a market that is RIPE for something to happen, whether it be the topping at Fib bands at 10.746, or a burst of optimism that brings us up higher.
We've seen this repeatedly for over 3 weeks as this market has held itself in a corner.
Smart day traders that already owned inventory were able to fight for tight profits, but all the rest of us sat on the sidelines and gave us the opportunity to buy.
It is now likely that the market will hold up the rest of this week, and start a downside early next week, but again any trigger news will create a bias.
We saw the reaction to the FOMC yesterday in a surprising manner; usually we are used to whipsaw both before the FOMC babbles, and yet again after.
Most of the morning we saw just a slight whipsaw. By 2:17 p..m. we had only seen the market move a TOTAL of 60 points. That's a market that is RIPE for something to happen, whether it be the topping at Fib bands at 10.746, or a burst of optimism that brings us up higher.
Don't Confuse Brains with a Bull Market
"Don't confuse brains with a bull market." - Humphrey B. Neill
It's most likely that the FOMC will keep interest rates on hold. Analysts will be watching to hear how the statement reads, and if there is any forward "raising of interests."
We'll watch S&P topping at 1187; use this in comparison with the below Dow projection.
Since 1960 a stock correction has never been more than 10%.
And yesterday, more trade range movements on the Dow with theoretical highs of 10,677,and lows of 10,530, before 3 p.m. The longer the market holds "up" the greater chance of a breakout to as high as 10, 874.
We were able to buy into positions yesterday , but could not make profits.
It's most likely that the FOMC will keep interest rates on hold. Analysts will be watching to hear how the statement reads, and if there is any forward "raising of interests."
We'll watch S&P topping at 1187; use this in comparison with the below Dow projection.
Since 1960 a stock correction has never been more than 10%.
And yesterday, more trade range movements on the Dow with theoretical highs of 10,677,and lows of 10,530, before 3 p.m. The longer the market holds "up" the greater chance of a breakout to as high as 10, 874.
We were able to buy into positions yesterday , but could not make profits.
Monday, March 15, 2010
We May Have Another 70 or 80 point upsurge.
HEALTHCARE STOCKS LAG - DEFENSIVE SECTORS SHOW RELATIVE WEAKNESS - DOLLAR STALLS NEAR RESISTANCE - EURO BOUNCES NEAR 62% RETRACEMENT - INTEREST RATES AND THE DOLLAR - GOLD FALLS TO SUPPORT
That's our market. We were able to profit several times, but also sat on our hands more than normal as the market died in movement. We have updated our Dow Projections with much more commentary. Study the "stopping grounds" we are at, and watch and gain your own perspective on the health of the market.
It's Floyd's thoughts that we MAY have another 70 or 80 point upsurge, but that the market will contract to as low as the 10,280 level, and that it should. We have too much struggle, too much euphoria, take too many "facts" in first with Greed, then with fear.
There's more upside possible, but watch to see if with volume and momentum holds.
That's our market. We were able to profit several times, but also sat on our hands more than normal as the market died in movement. We have updated our Dow Projections with much more commentary. Study the "stopping grounds" we are at, and watch and gain your own perspective on the health of the market.
It's Floyd's thoughts that we MAY have another 70 or 80 point upsurge, but that the market will contract to as low as the 10,280 level, and that it should. We have too much struggle, too much euphoria, take too many "facts" in first with Greed, then with fear.
There's more upside possible, but watch to see if with volume and momentum holds.
Friday, March 12, 2010
Day Trading Was Easy to the Call
"Sell stocks whenever the market is 30% higher over a year ago." - Eugene D. Brody
Hmm, I apologize for the market just a bit less. We've seen, by 3.11, little more real movement that the prior day, but both put and call could have been sold, from held positions, and day trading was very easy to the call on the upsurge. Now, did the market really move? Not really. We remain at tough support and resistance lines, and always seem to hesitate as the market approaches. A 44 point run at the end of day did hold, hitting the 10,650 range, very near the Fib top.
Risk traders only should hold a position over the weekend, or if you are in stop loss that has changed because of the second buy.
But it feels better to apologize less. I thought the market might have stopped breathing this week. I could hear it breathing yesterday.
We had a great day trade on the 520 call, available easily as low as 11.20, and selling to 13.80. Easy profits of $1.50 on it by 3.00 p.m., and a fast breakout
Watch for the reverse to potentially occur within days.
Hmm, I apologize for the market just a bit less. We've seen, by 3.11, little more real movement that the prior day, but both put and call could have been sold, from held positions, and day trading was very easy to the call on the upsurge. Now, did the market really move? Not really. We remain at tough support and resistance lines, and always seem to hesitate as the market approaches. A 44 point run at the end of day did hold, hitting the 10,650 range, very near the Fib top.
Risk traders only should hold a position over the weekend, or if you are in stop loss that has changed because of the second buy.
But it feels better to apologize less. I thought the market might have stopped breathing this week. I could hear it breathing yesterday.
We had a great day trade on the 520 call, available easily as low as 11.20, and selling to 13.80. Easy profits of $1.50 on it by 3.00 p.m., and a fast breakout
Watch for the reverse to potentially occur within days.
No One is Able to Trade
"If you bet on a horse, that's gambling. If you bet you can make three spades, that's entertainment. If you bet cotton will go up three points, that's business. See the difference?" - Blackie Sherrod
I apologize for the market. No one is able to trade successfully when the market moves from Dow highs of 10,641 to Dow lows of 10,486.
We continue to believe the market is overbought. It may reach Fibannoci retracement at 10,746 or it may struggle now and begin downturn. This is an untradeable market. Let's hope today shows us bias.
I apologize for the market. No one is able to trade successfully when the market moves from Dow highs of 10,641 to Dow lows of 10,486.
We continue to believe the market is overbought. It may reach Fibannoci retracement at 10,746 or it may struggle now and begin downturn. This is an untradeable market. Let's hope today shows us bias.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Many of us Blubber
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
We do not believe the Feds have as much ability to stimulate the economy as they used to, as the economy has been altered to a global disaster. Many of us blubber about "buy American" when it was our own NEED for reduced prices that created our buying import, and we needed the reduced prices because our wages have been stagnant and our household debt has been at all time highs.
We simply can't afford to buy most of our consumer products as U.S Goods.
We do not believe the Feds have as much ability to stimulate the economy as they used to, as the economy has been altered to a global disaster. Many of us blubber about "buy American" when it was our own NEED for reduced prices that created our buying import, and we needed the reduced prices because our wages have been stagnant and our household debt has been at all time highs.
We simply can't afford to buy most of our consumer products as U.S Goods.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
The One Most Responsive to Change Survive
Today is a major anniversary. The market bottomed on March 9th, 2009, with the Dow at 6547 and the S&P at 676. This was a 17 month slide, many of those months the government still defining if we were in a "recession" yet.
In the past 12 months the industrials have rallied 61% to 10,566 and higher, and the S&P to 1138, and higher.The S&P is still 27% below its 2007 high of 1565.
Remember these "facts" as you trade the market this week, and realize we are either in another bubble, or are creating one.
And for those of you that like angry but smart people, enjoy:
MICHAEL MOORE: President Obama, Replace Rahm With Me: An Open Letter From Michael MoorePresident Obama, I don't know what your team has been up to, but they haven't served you well. And Rahm, poor Rahm, has turned into a fighter -- not of Republicans, but of the left.
Or perhaps a reality of "financial democracy:"
WSJ: Bring Back The Robber Barons!
If the goal is job growth, we need to admit one fact: Political entrepreneurs create fewer jobs than do market entrepreneurs. We need new mass...
Or, perhaps that China may not be using the USD as a "peg":
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cd3a766-2925-11df-972b-00144feabdc0.html
"It's not the strongest of the species (think "traders") that survive, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." Charles Darwin
In the past 12 months the industrials have rallied 61% to 10,566 and higher, and the S&P to 1138, and higher.The S&P is still 27% below its 2007 high of 1565.
Remember these "facts" as you trade the market this week, and realize we are either in another bubble, or are creating one.
And for those of you that like angry but smart people, enjoy:
MICHAEL MOORE: President Obama, Replace Rahm With Me: An Open Letter From Michael MoorePresident Obama, I don't know what your team has been up to, but they haven't served you well. And Rahm, poor Rahm, has turned into a fighter -- not of Republicans, but of the left.
Or perhaps a reality of "financial democracy:"
WSJ: Bring Back The Robber Barons!
If the goal is job growth, we need to admit one fact: Political entrepreneurs create fewer jobs than do market entrepreneurs. We need new mass...
Or, perhaps that China may not be using the USD as a "peg":
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6cd3a766-2925-11df-972b-00144feabdc0.html
"It's not the strongest of the species (think "traders") that survive, not the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change." Charles Darwin
Monday, March 8, 2010
Caught in a "Trade Range"
So many of our subscribers have requested the "more lengthy" OEX commentary, outlining the week, that we're changing our format to so accommodate.
You will see more commentary, more "definition" of the market, and more of Floyd's thoughts for the week with the Monday commentary from now on.
For example, our concern with the banks may now, in lowered mode, actually restrain the market from last years exuberance. Further, many Americans are now paying down credit card debt (a house of cards ready to tumble) over paying their mortgage in their "upside-down" home values.
Floyd believes there is MORE downside possible in both residential and commercial real estate, that coupled with finance as a languishing sector, may flatten the market from any growth.
At the same time, as the gambler, I am certain that American exuberance and lack of execution (look at Congress) will continue. This actually may falsely prop the market up in some ways.
Less earning reports this week may allow the market to hit a top or bottom. Last week we saw whipsaw each day, and although I was not trading because I was out of the U.S. subscribers wrote in regularly with profit reports of 10-16% on put and call, sometimes in the same day. With a market caught in a "trade range," albeit a "distanced" one the market itself must "break pattern" for something to happen.
You will see more commentary, more "definition" of the market, and more of Floyd's thoughts for the week with the Monday commentary from now on.
For example, our concern with the banks may now, in lowered mode, actually restrain the market from last years exuberance. Further, many Americans are now paying down credit card debt (a house of cards ready to tumble) over paying their mortgage in their "upside-down" home values.
Floyd believes there is MORE downside possible in both residential and commercial real estate, that coupled with finance as a languishing sector, may flatten the market from any growth.
At the same time, as the gambler, I am certain that American exuberance and lack of execution (look at Congress) will continue. This actually may falsely prop the market up in some ways.
Less earning reports this week may allow the market to hit a top or bottom. Last week we saw whipsaw each day, and although I was not trading because I was out of the U.S. subscribers wrote in regularly with profit reports of 10-16% on put and call, sometimes in the same day. With a market caught in a "trade range," albeit a "distanced" one the market itself must "break pattern" for something to happen.
Friday, March 5, 2010
Something is Up
Something is up. The market will hit a top, and we project it below, and a larger downswing will occur. We've spent this week just waiting out how the market itself breathes.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
No Real Bias Showing in the Market
"What counts more than luck, is determination and perseverance. If the talent is there, it will come through. Don't be too impatient." - Fred Astaire
Reading the commentaries below should make you smile.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYPdwV3GJmoU&pos=2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a46O6Cok_e24&pos=1
The market has now moved from 10,509 high yesterday to a 10,336 low. We continue to see one more topping before a larger sell off, and recommend selling calls on any upswing.
There is no real bias showing in the market.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonacci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
Reading the commentaries below should make you smile.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYPdwV3GJmoU&pos=2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a46O6Cok_e24&pos=1
The market has now moved from 10,509 high yesterday to a 10,336 low. We continue to see one more topping before a larger sell off, and recommend selling calls on any upswing.
There is no real bias showing in the market.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonacci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
A Perfect Time to Outline...
Futures were up over 60 points by 8.30 a.m. Here's what led it: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajcVJ_khz4EE&pos=2
The market moved from a low of 10,349 to a high of 10,490.
We continue with the same signals, recommending buying on dips and selling for tight profits until this flat lining circle gives way.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
The market moved from a low of 10,349 to a high of 10,490.
We continue with the same signals, recommending buying on dips and selling for tight profits until this flat lining circle gives way.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Traveling, but...
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
The Chilean Earthquake could easily effect the market.
The market held steady, Dow lows of 10,286, and a nice rebound of over 100 points. As we teach a new method of trading this week, note that our signal to the call in commentary allowed some day trading and we have a first position to the put at 6.30
The Oracle spoke:
1. Stay liquid
2. Buy when everyone else is selling
3. Don't buy when everyone else is buying
4. Value, value, value
5. Don't get suckered by growth stories
6. Understand what you own
7. Defense beats offense
Worth listening
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks".
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
The Chilean Earthquake could easily effect the market.
The market held steady, Dow lows of 10,286, and a nice rebound of over 100 points. As we teach a new method of trading this week, note that our signal to the call in commentary allowed some day trading and we have a first position to the put at 6.30
The Oracle spoke:
1. Stay liquid
2. Buy when everyone else is selling
3. Don't buy when everyone else is buying
4. Value, value, value
5. Don't get suckered by growth stories
6. Understand what you own
7. Defense beats offense
Worth listening
Monday, March 1, 2010
Traveling to South America
Floyd is traveling in South America all of this week. There will be no responses to individual emails, and our alert commentary today is written to outline market strategies for the week. Alerts will come at normal times, with just less input from Floyd.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks."
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
The Chilean Earthquake could easily effect the market.
With my traveling it's a perfect time to outline where we see Dow projections, why we were profitable each day last week, and the week prior, in all but one signal we have provided, and what the market holds:
1. We will provide a range of option signals for you review this week.
2. In each case our rule of trading is:
a. Follow futures. If up or down 50+ points look, if applicable, for "best buy" prices, typically 15 to 22% below prior day close.
b. Enter orders pre-market at best buy. Take no second buys unless highly risk oriented, and if buying at best buy look for 22 to 35% profits.
c. Hold each position no longer than 4 days.
3. Depending upon the whipsaw and charts Floyd sees we'll hold with one or two signals for the week, OR we will change strike signals.
We believe the market is acting in what Economist Krugman calls an L formation. We are all familiar with W, V, and the ABC head and shoulders topping. Krugman believes we may be entering the "lost decade" or an L formation in which we see the downside or upside, the I of the L and the _ becomes the flat lining he sees through 2010.
This holds with my thinking that we will see spikes of euphoria and hope, and reversals of real magnitude, as we've seen this past two weeks.
If Krugman or I are right we are seeing the typical behavior of an L formation within the last three weeks, with deep whipsaws, but always back to flat and steady line, with no real increase.
This has also occurred after the Fibonnaci Retracement at 10,746. We think the market may next hit tops at 10,604, yet downside risk remains just as strong, no matter how it "looks."
The SPX can hit 1200, and the OEX 510-512, but it will be on how news in interpreted each day.
The Chilean Earthquake could easily effect the market.
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