A Sign of Slippage

"In order to be a great writer (or "investor"), a person must have a built-in, shockproof crap detector." - Ernest Hemingway


Barclays's sees fourth quarter GDP being revised downward to 5.7% from the 5.9% initially reported. This may just be a breath in the market, but three FOMC voters speak. There is enough spook about Bernanke, rising rates, inflation that any leading to debt may trigger the market. The market yesterday gapped up 65 points at opening, not allowing entry to the call unless buying above prior day, and not giving enough decline to our open put to prompt the second buy. At least, at the opening :)
We continue to see a market that may slightly top 11,000, but do not believe it will hold for any extended period without consolidation and we saw it yesterday. On the theoretical Dow the market hit 10,995 before dropping to 10,800 near the end of the day.

A sign of slippage. Upside may again occur, for a short run, but we will not play a new call to end the week. The recommended April call OEX.X APR 2010 540.0000 CALL was available for day trading on whipsaws and was profitable to 1.25 per contract.

But, it's simply too risky. Hitting 11,000...sure it might happen, and sure it could even go up further, and we'll offer new Dow projections, but Floyd remains suspicious. I do not trust euphoria.

If we see a close on the S&P below 1151, and on the Nasdaq below 1924, we believe we will see more and fast consolidation.