An Experiment

"Every time everyone's talking about something, that's the time to sell." - George Lindermann

This past week has been an experiment in our OEX templates, as we are continuing to change and improve both of our websites

In the meantime we've tried to provide "bias and count" for 45days, and long or short. We'll be back to regular format on Monday, but wanted to experiment with how fast traders can find that it is not the signal itself that is so important, but in how one anticipates the action of the market, or the bias, the count, the "edge." If we understand the bell curve count we know and have better odds. You'll continue to see us experiment with the best format to provide you the most valuable information.
What we tried to show this week is that regardless of OTM or ATM options if the volume is high enough and the bid/ask is being "played" by others, it is a time to make money.
For day traders, in tight increments. For longer term (3 or 4 day) traders by holding through whipsaw, and taking a second buy only if we see the bias may be shifting.

I study to see only the pivot, and the support and resistance lines. If the market moves by 75- 100 points I recalculate the pivot and support and resistance lines and I buy and sell around these lines.
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More from our BCO Commentary:

228 stocks on average reached new 52-week intraday highs each day during this last quarter.

· Bullish? Birinyi Associates as top analysts see a 1325 S&P top, which would “translate to a multiple of 17 on the 2010 consensus, neither cheap or extraordinary.” He could be right. Some likely give back would be good, leading to more of a bullish run in 2010.

· The bottom line is that job growth momentum is improving. John Hermann at State Street says “by the third quarter, profits will be at a new all-time record high. That is a plus for the jobs outlook.”

· It’s taken a year, as the market began performing, for corporate profits to begin to catch up. Early last year the corporate profits were made because of the vast reductions in staff. This was a V shape bottom in the stock market; and we are seeing a V shaped chart building in the development of earnings.

· We assume that the first quarter earnings are going to be good, and that this will buoy the market; however, we also believe analysts will be watching and listening to the “tone and comments” of future earnings.

· They will be doing so because the great fear of a W, or a “double dip,” the fear of a return to 9750, will lessen if job growth, higher earnings, and capital spending.

· We’ll see financials again gaining, this time 194% for the quarter. But again, this has a false fact within it, as the value for quarterly earnings in the financial sector was 50 to 60 billion three years ago, will be 20.1 billion this year, and was 6.9 billion the first quarter of last year. We are seeing steady improvement.

· Earnings lead to business spending, which leads to hiring, which leads to consumer spending. The cycle may be returning. Typically 60% of companies beat estimates, so there’s a good chance, analysts think, that we’ll hit 35 to 36% earnings growth.