Friday, November 21, 2008

You Never See Yourself Die in a Dream

According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.

Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.

You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is.

It is our perception that a rock is hard. It is NOT a reality. The sooner you can see this, the more you fight the logic that "of course the rock is hard" the faster you can become who you are, seeing rather than just believing.
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Some analysis of stocks shows the S&P 09 earnings averaging at $87 a share. Under worsening conditions this could move to $67.00 a share, suggesting that stocks are now becoming a bargain.

There is a premise here however that S&P consensus yield is 8% (averaged shares), and could hit 10% if the S &P 500 falls to 680. Smart economists, or Floydian disciples, believe that stock prices are becoming a bargain, but will have more opportunity at lower prices, WHEN earnings forecasts, built on optimism

Many traders wrote yesterday with the FEAR that the market will drop below 7700, and follow all the chartists doomsaying predictions of a Dow drop to 6400 or less. Magazines and newspapers now show pictures of Warren Buffet looking worried and predict the Great Depression 2.

Fear leads our market.

Theoretically we believe there is a 40% chance of a market downturn to the 7200 or lower area, not because fundamentals aren't strong, or because stocks are too expensive, but simply on babbling FEAR and doomsayers.

The lack of a Detroit automakers bail out is affecting the market in fear, and the idiot CEOS show up on private planes to ask for money. Sigh. Of course, Congress does not understand anything, Paulson lied on the 700 billion, and the financial services industry is in turmoil.

What to do? Either stop trading, or take straddle trades, and tight profits. This is a market even the market does not really understand.

We leave an open signal to the call, instructed below. The Dec300P hit lows of 5.05 in early trading and could have sold to highs of 10.00, for yet another profitable day. We will hold calls thru next Wednesday.

WE are now led as much by fear as reality.

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