Risk Society

When FDR took office in 1933 a quarter of the American people were unemployed. Remember, it was a much smaller nation. Now, we're hitting what the government says is 10% unemployment, but they now "twist numbers" to eliminate the"chronically unemployed," a Bushian twist that made unemployment look better. I believe our actual unemployment may hit 18% by the end of the first quarter in 09.

FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

Psychologists call our current period a "risk society", meaning we are now all preoccupied with threats to our safety, both real and perceived. Americans, for example, believe the "world is more dangerous than ever before"; evidence negates this misperception, but there is no relief.

Now, we lock our doors, say our prayers to our variety of Gods, take sleeping pills to fall asleep, and anti depressant or alcohol to ease our pain. Liquor and anti depressant sales are at all time highs.

What does this mean to a trader?

Our media thrives on creating fear, whether conservative or liberal. In the past, fear created a unification and solidarity; right now, we are a split nation struggling with the fear, and not yet unified.

Obama's greatest hope is his ability to show calm and unify us,after a disastrous eight years of Bushian "my way, the Emperor" strategy.

Psychologically our brains are not wired to process modern life. This means our brain functions to handle what we call "stress or over emotion" for the amount of stimulus/input we have created in our culture, from instant TV news, to Blackberry life, cell phones, and the web. We are inundating ourselves with information and actionable items.

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I"m glad I decided to give you all a New Year's present with Friday's alert. The January 460C was available below prior day close, at 1.90, and sold to highs of 5.00 by 3.45 pm in trading for up to 150% returns!

Traders also took two buy inventory to the January 420P, and we hold as an open position. Additionally, many traders reported day trade profits of a $1.00 per contract during the early market swing.

The market moved up in classic "it's a new year, everything will be good" euphoria, and may continue to our Dow projection top, but we suggest a sell off to within our Dow projections by no later than Thursday of this week.

We've been profitable on so many trades recently, and I do believe the market will begin to correct upwards, to a Fibonnaci retracment of 38% from the lowest low, to highs near 10,600, but only by the end of the year, and around massive volatility.

Friday's 250 point upswing was on LIGHT holiday volume. It is not yet a trend. There may a slight bit more topping, but we see correction before more upswing around the inauguration of our new President.



So here I am now giving you a hard core sales pitch:

Introducing Floydian Therapy, private psychological training. This is based on much of the transpersonal psychology metaphysics columns I've written this past month, that so many of you have "asked for more".

As usual, my pitch will be low key, as I only want clients ready for "real time therapy" based on my transpersonal work.

As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.

Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.

Luck is a definition, and a theory. I fully believe thoughts and behaviors control our success, what I try to teach. Emotions are much of thoughts and behaviors.

I believe the law of attraction works perfectly when one's mind is clear, without prejudice (study the definition), and with focus anyone can gain "luck".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html


On Dec 30, 2008, at 8:24 PM, MP wrote:
Hey Floyd...I read the brief article on Luck and thought of you...it made me wonder how much of trading can be attributed to luck as well?

Why do some people have all the luck while others are perpetually unlucky? Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire was determined to get to the scientific bottom of the phenomenon of luck, and what he discovered may surprise you:
I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.

Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.

I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.

This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.

Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.