My Job is to Be Your Provocateur

In 1954 the stock market first regains its highs from the 1929 crash.

My job is to be your provocateur. Often my commentaries do just that, with either disagreement, endorsement, or questions. The purpose of the commentaries is to introduce the emotions of the market to the facts of the charts, and how both we as traders, and the market at large interpret current conditions.

Yesterday a very upset new Level 3 subscriber wrote me about my "pro Obama" commentary, and within a lengthy dialogue shared with me a vastly conservative perspective (Obama as a citizen of Indonesia, or a Marxist Kenyan). This is an educated subscriber that shared many alternate points of view and believes in neither the Republican or Democratic party. Factually, someone with this thinking votes ineffectually, but for conscience.

How will this affect his trading? His understanding of "black and white" and that there is no black and white?

As your provocateur I want to see what emotions take place within you that could influence your trading.

Conjecture will lead the market, as people think so differently. These are the points of my commentaries, and the Floydian Therapy commentaries are also within our strategy to the market, as our system is based on mechanics, counts, and EMOTIONS.

I see it as my job to "question authority" and to ask you to look at "false facts." This is how you'll be AHEAD of the market, and how in our Blue Chip portfolio we sold off 2/3 of our stock positions profitably last fall at 14,100 and 11,100 on the Dow, and now have a winning portfolio again.

We do not believe what we read. We do not simplify complicated things. As an example, Medicare is indeed in trouble, as is our health care system. These costs are part of our issues. Studying Obama's health care plans I find nothing about nationalization, yet this oversimplification of regulation, control, and support become "nationalization." The money spent in Iraq would have done well for us in the past 8 years with Medicare, as an example, and we follow Roubini and Krugman as economists in our analysis of the real facts about what has happened to our banking system, and WHY.

Right now, despite consolidation, the country is turning optimistic. This may be a false euphoria, but it shows a bit of a "shift" psychologically, and we think part of this is the constant communication from the White House about our situations, after years of "no conversations" and allowing the few to gain wealth, which we now know was falsified. Seeing consolidation this week we think is healthy for a run range of 8250 to 8800 area, in whipsaw.

Two years ago I suggested the REAL unemployment rate was closer to 18%. It is interesting to see how the numbers have climbed during the flash downturn last fall, and more interesting to see how the middle class have responded. Much of our commentary is based on how we read the psychology of the market, and of our citizens.
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Yesterday we saw the true consolidation we think healthy for the market. Lows of 8222, with a whipsaw struggle for a time, as the market digested bad retail news, and a bit of "oh wait, maybe things..." hit.

This ended the flat lining we've had, and produced a clear bias, that may be at a bottom.