I have been traveling for the last three days. I wrote this commentary on Sunday 8/1 in advance of my travels, and also to help us see something. As I head home today we end a week that is best commented on by two things:
1. How have we profited from it?
2. What have we learned?
As we know, I project the Dow short term. I have no interest in long term projections, nor think the average analyst nor any chart. Too much is changing in this world, by the minute.
I do believe the market always hits overbought and oversold pockets, true support and resistance, and that by the study of a short term and long term Point and Figure chart that all the noise can be taken away and one can judge what would ordinarily do.
The true stock analyst in today's market must then study a reputable news source (such as Bloomberg) for the information of that day, and begin interpreting (both with Bloomberg and yourself) and how the daily "newsbites" will affect how close the market is to a support/resistance line, to the bullish % in the market, to the "mood of the market".
The key to trading is no longer buy and hold, and fundamentals.
I can tell in my traveling that America is in many ways spending (iPhones, iPads) and in many ways holding back (not opening restaurants, spending less discretionary income) and that many that are employed do not see recession, and cannot fathom either unemployment insurance or the cost of private insurance.
I see it daily. The employed, with health insurance, believe it is the responsibility of each person to gain health care, and that they should not be paying for what others are unable to do.
As most of you know I am not one for all the talk of the Constitution. I think it's an overrated document that we have not followed for years, and suddenly is our "Bible". So use this, or the Bible, and be citizens that recognize there are really three worlds in America:
1. The truly poor
2. The middle class poor, even though that appear rich
3. The vastly rich, the oligarchs, that good or bad attract more money always and pay less in taxes.
We have done this to ourselves.
1 comment:
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