Our Stock Market is Changing

The first trading day in March the Dow was up 9 of the last 13. But, the world is coming to an end:

-Since 1900 there have been four global bear markets in which stocks have fallen by at least 40%, adjusted for inflation. Two have occurred in the past 9 years.

This now proves that equities are truly risky over the long term, and that only the astute win.

It also brings a bit of reality to the former Bushian "the economy is sound, and we are not in a recession". Smart people were watching and we knew. What we did not know was just how pervasive the greed was, and how large the house of cards was.

Some astute economists (Dimson/London Business School the lead) have studied on 17 markets back to 1900, and they estimate we may have to wait nine more years before the Dow average, including dividends, has a 50% chance of hitting its 2007 highs. These same analysts can prove that "after the bad times come good times" with some astounding accuracy.

This means: our stock market is changing. And will more. We need to become even more astute in our OEX short term trading, a way to trade any type of condition.

Calls were available for tight day trading Friday on the market tumbles back to support lines, and the climb up. These trades, however, were only available for those online and watching, the rest of us own the signal, and instructions are below. We'll list a put again as a tight day trade, but follow futures carefully.