Monday, March 30, 2009

There is no Black and White

The market hit 7962 repeatedly on Friday, right at our Dow projection resistance line. Intraday moves took the market to 7695, just at our strongest support line. A few of us cynics wonder if the 21% stock market increase in the past 10 days might have anything to do with institutional traders manipulating the market to "buy upside," only to lock profits near the end of March to show a stronger balance sheet.

But then again, I'm a good guy and not cynical about market manipulation. As I teach, almost all FACTS are false, simply interpreted data around the opinion and morals of the reader. I teach "there is no black and white" regularly, as it is key to trading, and know that this principle, as it fights "the absolute" is hard to understand. 1+1=2 is a fact, ONLY if we agree on the definition of 1.

After using the April320P for day trade profits all of last week, we used stop loss on our remaining position on Friday, saying goodbye to a position that was an effective hedge for us as we profited on calls 7 days straight.

The Dow is up 21% in 13 days in the quickest rally since 1938. Perhaps it’s a Cinderella market that will turn into an illusion when the clock strikes midnight, and equally perhaps it may be a return to a serious bull run.

We have many new subscribers, and our long term loyal students and subscribers, and it's time for a week of the Floydian Soap Box. For those of you squeamish, faint at heart, or offended by swearing, radical thoughts, or "disrespect," first examine your limited minds, and secondly, ignore the following. These are beginning lessons from Floydian Therapy in how to trade the market. They are based on what our judgments and perceptions are, and why so many of us think we are "right" and that there is a black and white.

Friday I used the word FUCK in my diatribe about a Dr. that inquired of "what religion I was." By the end of the day I had received 47 responses from subscribers asking questions and complimenting my commentary, and 4 expressing concern or displeasure.

Following are three commentaries from subscribers. Please read carefully, as we will be discussing this around trading in the upcoming days, and feel free to offer your opinions.

First from friend and Trader JPW, from Missouri:

"I’ll be curious to see your commentary on swear words.

Though I personally believe intelligent creative individuals can find better ways of making an emphasis to a point with means other than swear words, some feel no need to exercise their creative minds in that fashion, as swearing is a much easier, though less effective approach than real facts. In the context you used a swear word, and the particular word used and considering the meaning of the swear word I find a hard time seeing how “f...g” relates to his request to know one’s religious affiliation. Even though one might find it hard to understand why he would ask that question, the reason for asking it would most likely be to know if certain medical approaches would be offensive, or to be aware of ones religious preferences upon death. There are other means of ascertaining that information, and less intrusive ways to do so.

For most people using swear words is a lack of sufficient emotional control, for some its second nature to swear. Typically, I believe highly intelligent individuals avoid using them. Maybe you used it for emphasis. Yet, I wonder if by using the swear word, you actually minimized your commentary to the Doctor? By using the F word in this case if I was the Doctor, I would discredit the entire comments you made as an emotional response, whereas a more creative approach (and logic based) to really “proving” your point of view would highlight the issue and not cloud it with a worthless swear word. Facts speak louder than emotions. Strong logical arguments coupled with an emotional appeal will have greater results, than using swear words that have no logical basis, but are most often reactionary rather than thought or logic based. Some use swear words to gain attention. If this was your real purpose, than it may have accomplished that, but it reduced any real argument to your point of view and had the added downside of potentially having your argument dismissed for lack of logic as it focused your comments on the emotion. Again, creative minds should be able to find stronger appeals than using the lower class swear words I believe.

Putting it in your commentary probably was to generate emotional fervor with your subscribers, and to encourage heightened emotions, all very similar to today’s media. Then again I guess this is an important part to keeping your subscriber base subscribing.

I would think better topics than the use of swear words would be more helpful to traders? Or was it to just generate interest in your Blog, and remove the focus from the recent loss on the Put trade?

Look forward to seeing your commentary.


Would hope your looking for intelligent discussion and you not find my blog offensive?"


And from Trader FTT, from Chicago:

"I for one am tired of hearing all I cannot do, and all I must tell. I am offended and incensed that there are now cameras on our street corners to watch us speeding, and put up in "high crime areas".

The average stupid American, as you so well call them, sees this "well I have nothing to hide and it will cut crime". The intelligent citizen sees this as the future of fascism, as the film maker is in control.

I am offended when I am asked my religion, and I understand the "shock" affect you used, just as you are so eloquent in your disrespect for the TSA and what they have done for us.

We spend far too much time in this country judging others, and making up suppositions, and I can only say "hotdamn, I love when you speak your mind. I'm sick of judgmental people. And personally, if I want to swear, I should be able to. They are just words. Good for you, Floyd"



And from Trader LFC, Italy:

"You Americans don't talk about sex, often act as sheep, and miss the joys of life. It is not right to ask one's religion nor their sexual preference, and we spend far too much in our world judging.

I wonder if The Catcher in the Rye, the famous novel by J.D. Salinger, is censored in many schools, especially religious ones in the U.S. There is a logic: Most of the "shooters" in your high school massacres had read this classic, therefore the book should be censored. It works right with your "what religion are you". I see the parallel to stocks already".

You wasted millions as a nation judging your former President on a sex act, but reelected a President practicing mass murder. I'd be surprised if the majority of your puritanical readers, as I see the U.S., will have appreciated your right to expression, and will have judged you. It will be an interesting study".



Thanks to all for writing here, and expressing your opinions. All of your points of view are welcome, and are part of the dialogue I hope to create about "how we think." Feedback more....as this is a week of teaching "how we think" I'll leave the comments above for your review, and blogging participation and give you one more story:

I used to travel to Europe and Asia a great deal, and just before getting a ticket a very official agent of the airline would interrogate each traveler, examining your papers, the passport, and asking a series of questions. Many Americans felt that this was “extraordinary in its’ diligence” and that this is what “the US should have been doing all along.”. As always, we only think out what we think is logic. Logic always has bias. This is key lesson.

So, from a conversation Floyd had 3 years ago in Europe, my little story for your review:

"Where are you going, and what is your purpose of business?"(The screener, saying to me, the businessman dressed in a high quality suit, flying business class, with a huge passport showing years of world travels.)

So here’s Floyd in line in Zurich. They review my papers, and I am in order. (It's a proud moment:))

"What was my purpose of business in Zurich?"-the screener

"I studied the mutilation of children, and how religions create mass murders in the name of God. And I am traveling to follow the will of God"-Floyd to the screener, who does not bat an eye.

"Where did you stay?"-the screener asks

"At the Marriot, but I slept around a lot with locals and prostitutes."- Floyd, just because why is it even RELEVANT where I stayed? Again, the screener does not bat an eye.

In turn, on my flight from Rome to Zurich they asked again:

"What is your purpose of travel to Zurich?"-this is my favorite question from screeners. You can say whatever you want!

"I am here to learn how to move assets to Switzerland from other tax havens. I can't keep it in the U.S."-I seriously said this, with no response. This Swiss guy even smiled.

I know, it’s funny. It’s also true. At both airports I was greeted warmly with this responses, had no questions put of me, and whisked right through.

I did answer honestly that I had no sharp objects with me, although I carried my trusty box cutter, camouflaged as a letter opener, and legal to the TSA.

What point am I making in relation to the stock market?

What point am I making in general? Can you analyze what point I am making about "swearing", about The Catcher in the Rye, about cameras on our streets, or "what type of people need to swear"?

Stay tuned for more this week, as we analyze the "emotions that create the market".


These are true stories, from your leader of disrespect.

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