Bill Gates said in 1981 "640k ought to be enough for anybody." Try running Microsoft Vista without a gig. (Or, better, try running Vista at all:))
What we think is true is only from our current knowledge. When we "KNOW" we are right, we only KNOW what we know, not what is not learned or known yet.
Facts are thusly fallible. There is no black and white.
The market proved this well yesterday. The Dow hit tops of 7442 and bottoms of 7133 in one day, classic whipsaw trading, with both put and call actually losing value at times when they should not have, indicators of a confused market.
Traders reported sales on open March370C right to our top sells at 13.40, and the OTM March 395C was available on downturn and was sold on upturn to profit highs of up to 1.30, making calls yet again profitable.
We believe the market has more upside potential, but may be around whipsaw and fear. Study our Dow projections well, as we've been right on track in our watching of the breathing of the market.
Floydian Therapy:
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Different schools of thought over the centuries have found different explanations for man’s apparently inherently flawed state. Taoists call it inbalance, Buddhists call it ignorance, Islam blames our misery on rebellion from God, and Christians attribute all of our suffering to original sin. Freudians say that unhappiness is the inevitable result of the clash between our natural drives and civilization’s needs.
Jungian pyschologists believe desire is the design flaw.
Each of us strives to find what we believe in, and many of us then spend our lives telling others that they are wrong for not believing the same thing.
We wrongly believe that our limited little egos constitute our whole entire universe.
We have failed to recognize our deeper divine character. We don’t realize that, somewhere within us all, there does exist a Supreme Self who is eternally at peace.
That Supreme Self is our true identity, universal and divine.
The Greek Philosopher Epictetus said, “You bear God within you, poor wretch, and know it not”.
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
All Calls Were Profitable Yesterday
Some chartists believe we have a 33 year bull market to correct, and were only one year into the correction. These chartists believe it cannot be fixed, and the 2002 low was our first sign of what a bubble we were building: Credit, housing, commodity, and the even larger stock bubble.
It all comes down to this: these chartists, the doomsayers, think we have seen the bull market top, and that we could still have nine plus years to go of a bear market, if the cycle traders are right.
The market reacted to the President's speech much as America did. Many like what he is doing, and many do not....so the market reacted in the same fashion, with another bottom test at 7116, and another top test above 7450, all before 3 p.m, with the market not holding and retreating in the last hour. We believe the market has more upside, but will reverse to our lower Dow projections in a short time.
All calls were profitable yesterday! We were able to trade the March370C right near our tops, and our OTM call recommendation from yesterday from lows of 1.50 to 2.80 tops by 3.30 p.m. again. We again saw the market top near 7444, with a strong whipsaw through the day.
We continue to see market tops, so be cautious with all upswing trades, as a market shift is very likely. We'll list a call to trade, but take tight profits, and be sure and follow futures carefully. Do not trade calls if futures are down more than 80 points.
It all comes down to this: these chartists, the doomsayers, think we have seen the bull market top, and that we could still have nine plus years to go of a bear market, if the cycle traders are right.
The market reacted to the President's speech much as America did. Many like what he is doing, and many do not....so the market reacted in the same fashion, with another bottom test at 7116, and another top test above 7450, all before 3 p.m, with the market not holding and retreating in the last hour. We believe the market has more upside, but will reverse to our lower Dow projections in a short time.
All calls were profitable yesterday! We were able to trade the March370C right near our tops, and our OTM call recommendation from yesterday from lows of 1.50 to 2.80 tops by 3.30 p.m. again. We again saw the market top near 7444, with a strong whipsaw through the day.
We continue to see market tops, so be cautious with all upswing trades, as a market shift is very likely. We'll list a call to trade, but take tight profits, and be sure and follow futures carefully. Do not trade calls if futures are down more than 80 points.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
The Market Turned Finally Turned
An undisclosed buyer offered the Mpls airport $5000.00 for Senator Craig's bathroom stall. The offer was not accepted. :)
Finally, after 11 straight days of downside, and a bottom test at 7000, the market turned. Calls were able to be bought as low as 8.50, for new trades, and for traders that already had bought, hit first tops of 12.70
As you study our Dow projections note the strong resistance we see at 7590 area, with struggles all the way to this. It's likely to even have whipsaw trades around the mood of the market. Yesterday the market came very close to our first top, with a theoretical Dow of 7418.
I for one watched President Obama and am a believer. I think he "gets it" and believe he is trying a truly unified and focused approach to solving a decade of greed. I'm saddened that the politics continues, the two sides fighting as if they are sides, when in reality, our situation is so dire that actions must be taken.
Nouriel Roubini, New York Stern Business School, considers the nationalization of banks much like what the Swedish did in the 1990's. "You take the banks over, clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector."
During the Bush era the central bank "led the kind of government interference in the economy that was unprecedented. The central bank-supposed to be the lender of the last resort, yet they, without controls, became the lender of first resort." Roubini goes on to explain that Obama has little choice but to try to find ways to eliminate the toxic debt, as in "six months even firms that today look insolvent are going to become insolvent. Most of the national banks are going to look insolvent.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
Finally, after 11 straight days of downside, and a bottom test at 7000, the market turned. Calls were able to be bought as low as 8.50, for new trades, and for traders that already had bought, hit first tops of 12.70
As you study our Dow projections note the strong resistance we see at 7590 area, with struggles all the way to this. It's likely to even have whipsaw trades around the mood of the market. Yesterday the market came very close to our first top, with a theoretical Dow of 7418.
I for one watched President Obama and am a believer. I think he "gets it" and believe he is trying a truly unified and focused approach to solving a decade of greed. I'm saddened that the politics continues, the two sides fighting as if they are sides, when in reality, our situation is so dire that actions must be taken.
Nouriel Roubini, New York Stern Business School, considers the nationalization of banks much like what the Swedish did in the 1990's. "You take the banks over, clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector."
During the Bush era the central bank "led the kind of government interference in the economy that was unprecedented. The central bank-supposed to be the lender of the last resort, yet they, without controls, became the lender of first resort." Roubini goes on to explain that Obama has little choice but to try to find ways to eliminate the toxic debt, as in "six months even firms that today look insolvent are going to become insolvent. Most of the national banks are going to look insolvent.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
No End to the Sell Off
The sell off does not end. By 3.00 p.m. yesterday the market had hit 7066, hitting new market lows. It never seems to stop. Nothing moves the market except FEAR. At this point, the FEAR is so rampant that nothing stops the downside, and the market is no longer breathing, but simply reacting.
After Madoff, comes Stanford, another slime:
"WASHINGTON - For years, there were red flags — so many they could have massed into a crimson blanket.
As with the Bernard Madoff case, the scandal surrounding billionaire R. Allen Stanford now seems clear and obvious in hindsight. Yet Stanford managed to run his alleged scheme even while the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators had him on their radar screens and investigated his businesses. Stanford wasn’t charged until last week.
From his tiny accounting firm’s office near a North London fish-and-chips shop to certificates of deposit promising outsized returns sold by a bank in Antigua, ample warning signs over the years suggested Stanford’s business wasn’t what it seemed."
The SEC must be held accountable, but of course, has not been. These are the same idiots that have strict day trading rules (25k minimum for pattern day traders must be in the holders account) , protecting the little guy from himself while allowing the big guys to fraud 58 billion, that we have found so far. There will be more.
All of our "regulations" in the past 8 years have been non existent, as Greenspan's Ayn Rand philosophy of market driven controls led the way. Many of us suspect the "first" 350 billion, that came through Paulson, and has been unaccounted for, literally may have been a pay off to Wall Street, and the bankers....at least that's what the conspiracists think, and more of their thinking, so extreme in the past, is beginning to make sense.
The following influenced the market's opening on Monday, as more talk of nationalization and "paying for my neighbor's mortgage" continued on the print and air waves.
How silly we are. Our banks have, through our own Federal lack of oversight, now been caught supplying false facts even to themselves to prop up the house of cards. We are at a point that our banks could truly fail, and that more and more homes could stand vacant, foreclosed, plummeting home values even more, but we have Republicans babbling and posturing to "let the Democrats" fail, perhaps at the expense of our country's financial system.
Where we stood Monday: with a recommendation to a new call for the day, the market opened up. Initially calls were not able to be purchased, as the market ended the longest cycle of downward pressure we've seen in years.
After Madoff, comes Stanford, another slime:
"WASHINGTON - For years, there were red flags — so many they could have massed into a crimson blanket.
As with the Bernard Madoff case, the scandal surrounding billionaire R. Allen Stanford now seems clear and obvious in hindsight. Yet Stanford managed to run his alleged scheme even while the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators had him on their radar screens and investigated his businesses. Stanford wasn’t charged until last week.
From his tiny accounting firm’s office near a North London fish-and-chips shop to certificates of deposit promising outsized returns sold by a bank in Antigua, ample warning signs over the years suggested Stanford’s business wasn’t what it seemed."
The SEC must be held accountable, but of course, has not been. These are the same idiots that have strict day trading rules (25k minimum for pattern day traders must be in the holders account) , protecting the little guy from himself while allowing the big guys to fraud 58 billion, that we have found so far. There will be more.
All of our "regulations" in the past 8 years have been non existent, as Greenspan's Ayn Rand philosophy of market driven controls led the way. Many of us suspect the "first" 350 billion, that came through Paulson, and has been unaccounted for, literally may have been a pay off to Wall Street, and the bankers....at least that's what the conspiracists think, and more of their thinking, so extreme in the past, is beginning to make sense.
The following influenced the market's opening on Monday, as more talk of nationalization and "paying for my neighbor's mortgage" continued on the print and air waves.
How silly we are. Our banks have, through our own Federal lack of oversight, now been caught supplying false facts even to themselves to prop up the house of cards. We are at a point that our banks could truly fail, and that more and more homes could stand vacant, foreclosed, plummeting home values even more, but we have Republicans babbling and posturing to "let the Democrats" fail, perhaps at the expense of our country's financial system.
Where we stood Monday: with a recommendation to a new call for the day, the market opened up. Initially calls were not able to be purchased, as the market ended the longest cycle of downward pressure we've seen in years.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Watching the Market Breathe
Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock (BRKB), one of our largest Blue Chip Options (www.bluechipoptions.com) holdings is down 37% as of Friday, with the market hitting 8 year lows in Friday's trading, and dropping as low as a theoretical Dow of 7209. Traders were not able to get in on puts, as the market moved to quickly in downward cycle, unless day trading and following tight whipsaw patterns through the day, in which case .50 to .75 profits were available. Despite a market turnaround near the end of the trading day the market closed lower again, assimilating more and more bad news.
Some chartists see a doji in candlestick charts, others see support lines broken, new multiyear lows hit, and the fight between bulls and bears continues.
We have been "early" on three call recommendations now in three weeks, while profitable multiple times on put recommendations. This means our version of a "straddle" has been less effective, simply because the market has no turnaround or exhaustive gap up days, and no hesitancy in downward pressure.
Slimey banks like BOA and Citi may now have to be nationalized. Conservatives argue for "let the market run it's course and free enterprise validate itself." Liberals argue that a buy out of what has occurred is the only way out.
And, in the real end, no one knows, as we have entered "depression" territory, with new frauds being exposed daily, and example of where free enterprise capitalism fails without regulation, and with lobbying that corrupts our voting Congress.
Sigh. History is being made here. New all time lows in an 8 year period.
This makes it hard to trade anything. One subscriber wrote me several times during Friday's trading, waiting for the "bottom" and ready for a new call trade. Here's his dialogue to me:
"I feel good about my decision to stay away...I am a little disappointed that I didn't enter the position when the OEX hit the S3 level...I felt like that was a good place to enter (I could have got 7.70 on the 380 call and made 2 1/2 bucks))...but like you said...we are making new lows and who knows where we are going to stop...
I believe we are heading to the S&P 740 level...it seems like the market "needs" to test that low again...
After that, I am hoping for a large bull rally...what I don't understand is which index drives the market? Or neither of them do? I find it quite weird that you make DOW projections and are usually pretty accurate...which I translated as that the DOW action/support and resistance levels/ drives the market...but now it appears we went through the DOW lows but not the S&P lows...so maybe the S&P is running the show for now?
I don't know!!
What "sign" are you looking for exactly that would indicate the marker has turned around? How do we really know when the bottom testing is over?"
In the end, this trader did not day trade the calls, also a potential profit, in the afternoon rally. He's right that the S &P held more than the Dow (banking stocks), but may be wrong that the market is "ready to turn".
Most all of us want this, or see this over extended market and see no reason it has not. What we want and see to be right has not yet occurred.
This is what is important to realize: what should be is not relevant. What situations occur that are now logical are still situations that are not logical, and still occurred. It is what it is.
This is watching the market breathe.
Some chartists see a doji in candlestick charts, others see support lines broken, new multiyear lows hit, and the fight between bulls and bears continues.
We have been "early" on three call recommendations now in three weeks, while profitable multiple times on put recommendations. This means our version of a "straddle" has been less effective, simply because the market has no turnaround or exhaustive gap up days, and no hesitancy in downward pressure.
Slimey banks like BOA and Citi may now have to be nationalized. Conservatives argue for "let the market run it's course and free enterprise validate itself." Liberals argue that a buy out of what has occurred is the only way out.
And, in the real end, no one knows, as we have entered "depression" territory, with new frauds being exposed daily, and example of where free enterprise capitalism fails without regulation, and with lobbying that corrupts our voting Congress.
Sigh. History is being made here. New all time lows in an 8 year period.
This makes it hard to trade anything. One subscriber wrote me several times during Friday's trading, waiting for the "bottom" and ready for a new call trade. Here's his dialogue to me:
"I feel good about my decision to stay away...I am a little disappointed that I didn't enter the position when the OEX hit the S3 level...I felt like that was a good place to enter (I could have got 7.70 on the 380 call and made 2 1/2 bucks))...but like you said...we are making new lows and who knows where we are going to stop...
I believe we are heading to the S&P 740 level...it seems like the market "needs" to test that low again...
After that, I am hoping for a large bull rally...what I don't understand is which index drives the market? Or neither of them do? I find it quite weird that you make DOW projections and are usually pretty accurate...which I translated as that the DOW action/support and resistance levels/ drives the market...but now it appears we went through the DOW lows but not the S&P lows...so maybe the S&P is running the show for now?
I don't know!!
What "sign" are you looking for exactly that would indicate the marker has turned around? How do we really know when the bottom testing is over?"
In the end, this trader did not day trade the calls, also a potential profit, in the afternoon rally. He's right that the S &P held more than the Dow (banking stocks), but may be wrong that the market is "ready to turn".
Most all of us want this, or see this over extended market and see no reason it has not. What we want and see to be right has not yet occurred.
This is what is important to realize: what should be is not relevant. What situations occur that are now logical are still situations that are not logical, and still occurred. It is what it is.
This is watching the market breathe.
Friday, February 20, 2009
February Epiraton...
February expiration day has been up 50% and down 50% of the time in the last six years, up 3, down 3. We saw the market moved from Dow lows of 7407 to a healthy run up at opening to 7650, and then more flat lining as the world "waits."
The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
___________________
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:
Hey Floyd...
As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...
God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.
I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...
He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...
He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...
And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:
Me to Him...
"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."
I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!
Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.
And Floyd's response:
This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.
It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.
I am proud of you.
And his response:
Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...
Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...
Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!
Thank you,
The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
___________________
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:
Hey Floyd...
As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...
God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.
I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...
He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...
He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...
And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:
Me to Him...
"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."
I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!
Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.
And Floyd's response:
This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.
It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.
I am proud of you.
And his response:
Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...
Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...
Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!
Thank you,
February expiration day has been up 50% and down 50% of the time in the last six years, up 3, down 3. We saw the market moved from Dow lows of 7407 to a healthy run up at opening to 7650, and then more flat lining as the world "waits."
The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
___________________
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:
Hey Floyd...
As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...
God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.
I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...
He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...
He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...
And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:
Me to Him...
"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."
I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!
Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.
And Floyd's response:
This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.
It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.
I am proud of you.
And his response:
Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...
Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...
Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!
Thank you,
The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
___________________
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:
Hey Floyd...
As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...
God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.
I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...
He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...
He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...
And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:
Me to Him...
"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."
I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!
Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.
And Floyd's response:
This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.
It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.
I am proud of you.
And his response:
Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...
Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...
Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!
Thank you,
Thursday, February 19, 2009
A Catalyst is Needed
1 in 4 of our Gulf War veterans suffer from "Gulf War illness." Senator Burris is a liar. Stanford is charged with an 8 billion dollar fraud. Obama announces his mortgage bailout. And, again, the market holds near the November lows of 7552. The decline holds and bears believe the more you test a low the odds go up that its' going to give way. Bulls believe the more that support is tested, the more opportunity for rebound.
And this is the story. The market free falls, then gets caught in flat lining, and the world waits. The world watches and blames us, and waits to see what we solve. But we, the USA, are in the greatest shift of our time, slowing becoming less of a super power.
Trading is difficult, and we know it. Yesterday our new buy on the put was available. Traders reported profits of of up to $1.50 on the March370P, and the opportunity for tight day trades. Trading this type of position right now, however, takes someone to stay online or checking their Blackberry, as market moves are extremely volatile.
Traders also have two buys in the March390C and we'll hold this through Friday. If a bear market is to continue note our Dow projection lows. We'll list both of these signals as open and new buys.
There will be catalyst that will move this market, and it's a 50/50 bet, so the risk is higher.
I find myself with less to share with you, as the news and soundbites are inundating us all wherever we go. Each day more greed is exposed that is simply astounding to me that it was not caught, and that so many lobbyists control our corrupt politicians. I am one to want to allow our President to do it his way. Spend this money. Walk his talk. But the politics does not stop, and the world reaction deepens, with Japan, tied with China for the lead buyer of our Treasuries, which sponsor this debt, just had their Finance Minister drunk at G-7, and has an economy close to tatters.
And this is the story. The market free falls, then gets caught in flat lining, and the world waits. The world watches and blames us, and waits to see what we solve. But we, the USA, are in the greatest shift of our time, slowing becoming less of a super power.
Trading is difficult, and we know it. Yesterday our new buy on the put was available. Traders reported profits of of up to $1.50 on the March370P, and the opportunity for tight day trades. Trading this type of position right now, however, takes someone to stay online or checking their Blackberry, as market moves are extremely volatile.
Traders also have two buys in the March390C and we'll hold this through Friday. If a bear market is to continue note our Dow projection lows. We'll list both of these signals as open and new buys.
There will be catalyst that will move this market, and it's a 50/50 bet, so the risk is higher.
I find myself with less to share with you, as the news and soundbites are inundating us all wherever we go. Each day more greed is exposed that is simply astounding to me that it was not caught, and that so many lobbyists control our corrupt politicians. I am one to want to allow our President to do it his way. Spend this money. Walk his talk. But the politics does not stop, and the world reaction deepens, with Japan, tied with China for the lead buyer of our Treasuries, which sponsor this debt, just had their Finance Minister drunk at G-7, and has an economy close to tatters.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Do you Truly Have Facts or Newsbites
There is a 1 in 3 chance that a U.S. high school student has stolen something from a store in the past year. I thought I would start with this, as it may be the most eye opening statement we will have today.
So, what happened. The market yet again hit new lows, this time going right to our November bottom again, in massive downswing. Since November, investors have occasionally indulged themselves with a few days of optimistic activity. But reality has continued to win out, leaving stock markets stuck.
Many prominent strategists have said stocks have retreated to valuations not seen in decades. Leo Schulteis at Alpha Hedge Fund says well "most of us are wired to be contrarians in our head, and momentum players in our guy".
He's dead right, and everyone now is waiting for more convincing evidence that things are returning to normal. That's what this is. The FEAR mounts with each new dialogue, new package, or discovery of yet another fraud, as we heard yesterday with a large hedge fund manager again with another Ponzi scheme. Investors seem to see value at 7700 area, as we repeatedly hit this support line and struggle around it. But, investors are not seeing value yet in an upturned market, a bearish sign that could lead the market to another new low, which we project 7370 area, but much less likely.
Around Obama's populist moves, and his strategy of trying a bi-partisan approach, the Republicans are taking a huge strategy risk in not supporting the stimulus, betting it will fail, and that they will retake the house in two years.
I don't care who's right anymore, I'm just saddened that we remain a nation split in half.
We could not gain entry to the put recommended yesterday as it opened at almost double prior day close.
Ask yourself as you follow the economic disaster of our lifetimes if you truly have facts on your thoughts, or mere newsbites fed to us.
So, what happened. The market yet again hit new lows, this time going right to our November bottom again, in massive downswing. Since November, investors have occasionally indulged themselves with a few days of optimistic activity. But reality has continued to win out, leaving stock markets stuck.
Many prominent strategists have said stocks have retreated to valuations not seen in decades. Leo Schulteis at Alpha Hedge Fund says well "most of us are wired to be contrarians in our head, and momentum players in our guy".
He's dead right, and everyone now is waiting for more convincing evidence that things are returning to normal. That's what this is. The FEAR mounts with each new dialogue, new package, or discovery of yet another fraud, as we heard yesterday with a large hedge fund manager again with another Ponzi scheme. Investors seem to see value at 7700 area, as we repeatedly hit this support line and struggle around it. But, investors are not seeing value yet in an upturned market, a bearish sign that could lead the market to another new low, which we project 7370 area, but much less likely.
Around Obama's populist moves, and his strategy of trying a bi-partisan approach, the Republicans are taking a huge strategy risk in not supporting the stimulus, betting it will fail, and that they will retake the house in two years.
I don't care who's right anymore, I'm just saddened that we remain a nation split in half.
We could not gain entry to the put recommended yesterday as it opened at almost double prior day close.
Ask yourself as you follow the economic disaster of our lifetimes if you truly have facts on your thoughts, or mere newsbites fed to us.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Unemployment is Finally Becoming REAL
Unemployment is finally becoming "real." Floyd has been arguing for years that our facts were false, and we've been misled. Interesting to see just what is happening now, and here's why:
From MP
"I figured that you and your subscribers would like this...
A perfect description of our unemployment situation right now...
John Smith started the day early having set his alarm alarm clock (MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6 AM. While his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA) was perking, he shaved with his
electric razor (MADE IN HONG KONG .) He put on his dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA), designer jeans (MADE IN SINGAPORE) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA).
After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (MADE IN INDIA) he sat down with his calculator (MADE IN MEXICO) to see how much he could spend today. After setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA) he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY) filled it with GAS (from Saudi Arabia) and continued his search for a good paying AMERICAN JOB. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his computer (Made in Malaysia), John decided to relax for a while. He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL) poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA), and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in AMERICA!"
The day before Presidents Day weekend the S and P has been down 14 of the last 17 years, and off 11 in a row 1992-2002.
Yesterday's downward pressure caused or will cause a stop loss on our open OEX call position, making it two losses out of the last 20 trades, not including day trades. Sorry, but this market extends much longer than I see it. We were seeing higher lows and increasing volume earlier this week, only to see a consistent test of 7700, our November lows. Study our Dow projections carefully today. Pending how the market acts or reacts today, we'll be adjusting our short term projections. Near day end, however, the bottom testing appeared to be over and the market began upside moves, allowing day traders on the Feb410C yet another profitable day.
We will list dual trades today, despite seeing an overextended downside. Our put will be February expiry, to sell by end of day, and we will begin inventory to a March call, pending what we see as a corrective and short term upside. Whatever happens with this stimulus package, and the perception around it, will steer this coming week, as the market to date has not been "satisfied" with what is being communicated. Remember, the market precedes the general economy.
The Market is closed next Monday for President's Day. You'll receive an alert next Monday evening for the Tuesday opening.
Please allow me a sales pitch. Using a psychologist approach to both trading, and how to "be who you are", may be just what you need in these bad times. Invest in yourself.
Floydian Therapy
Real Time Therapy®, and Life Coaching®
I use a transpersonal psychology approach to private life coaching with a number of our Advanced Mentoring subscribers at OEX Options.
As a business consultant, President of a distribution company, and a stock trader, Floyd uses his education and training to teach and help one be “the real you.”
Classically educated in industrial and transpersonal psychology Floyd utilizes a life coach methodology for email consultation with clients.
Utilizing a number of psychological tests Floydian Therapy® is 90 days in duration, and around 5 strategic models:
Completion and Floydian evaluation of five (5) psychological tests
Client to complete five (5) written assignments specific to the analysis of character, past and present.
Floyd works with the client by email as much as required ( no limitations as to amount of email) for a 90 day period
Real Time Therapy®, and life coaching®, is a hands on, in your face methodology that identifies issues, defines solutions, and creates action plans for your own performance.
Unlike traditional “therapy” we believe that 80% of our clients are quite capable of overcoming traditional issues that often are “prescription oriented,” or defined by long term ongoing therapy.
Think of Floyd like a non TV “Dr. Phil”, or Dr. Wayne Dyer that teaches the methodology of right thinking, and overcoming of obstacles that are almost entirely self perpetuated myths.
There are no guarantees with this work. No free lunches. No “buy 12 and get 1 free”.
The price is high, and it should be. $999.00 for 90 days of one on one counsel, email based, as often as you like. References available.
If at the end of 90 days you do not believe you have gained $999.00 worth for your SELF I will cheerfully refund ½ of your purchase price. This is not a guarantee as much as a commitment to the client….you will get what you paid for, and you will decide yourself if it’s “worth it”
*You are What You Decide*
Confront yourself. You created you.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.htm
From MP
"I figured that you and your subscribers would like this...
A perfect description of our unemployment situation right now...
John Smith started the day early having set his alarm alarm clock (MADE IN JAPAN ) for 6 AM. While his coffeepot (MADE IN CHINA) was perking, he shaved with his
electric razor (MADE IN HONG KONG .) He put on his dress shirt (MADE IN SRI LANKA), designer jeans (MADE IN SINGAPORE) and tennis shoes (MADE IN KOREA).
After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (MADE IN INDIA) he sat down with his calculator (MADE IN MEXICO) to see how much he could spend today. After setting his watch (MADE IN TAIWAN) to the radio (MADE IN INDIA) he got in his car (MADE IN GERMANY) filled it with GAS (from Saudi Arabia) and continued his search for a good paying AMERICAN JOB. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day checking his computer (Made in Malaysia), John decided to relax for a while. He put on his sandals (MADE IN BRAZIL) poured himself a glass of wine (MADE IN FRANCE) and turned on his TV (MADE IN INDONESIA), and then wondered why he can't find a good paying job in AMERICA!"
The day before Presidents Day weekend the S and P has been down 14 of the last 17 years, and off 11 in a row 1992-2002.
Yesterday's downward pressure caused or will cause a stop loss on our open OEX call position, making it two losses out of the last 20 trades, not including day trades. Sorry, but this market extends much longer than I see it. We were seeing higher lows and increasing volume earlier this week, only to see a consistent test of 7700, our November lows. Study our Dow projections carefully today. Pending how the market acts or reacts today, we'll be adjusting our short term projections. Near day end, however, the bottom testing appeared to be over and the market began upside moves, allowing day traders on the Feb410C yet another profitable day.
We will list dual trades today, despite seeing an overextended downside. Our put will be February expiry, to sell by end of day, and we will begin inventory to a March call, pending what we see as a corrective and short term upside. Whatever happens with this stimulus package, and the perception around it, will steer this coming week, as the market to date has not been "satisfied" with what is being communicated. Remember, the market precedes the general economy.
The Market is closed next Monday for President's Day. You'll receive an alert next Monday evening for the Tuesday opening.
Please allow me a sales pitch. Using a psychologist approach to both trading, and how to "be who you are", may be just what you need in these bad times. Invest in yourself.
Floydian Therapy
Real Time Therapy®, and Life Coaching®
I use a transpersonal psychology approach to private life coaching with a number of our Advanced Mentoring subscribers at OEX Options.
As a business consultant, President of a distribution company, and a stock trader, Floyd uses his education and training to teach and help one be “the real you.”
Classically educated in industrial and transpersonal psychology Floyd utilizes a life coach methodology for email consultation with clients.
Utilizing a number of psychological tests Floydian Therapy® is 90 days in duration, and around 5 strategic models:
Completion and Floydian evaluation of five (5) psychological tests
Client to complete five (5) written assignments specific to the analysis of character, past and present.
Floyd works with the client by email as much as required ( no limitations as to amount of email) for a 90 day period
Real Time Therapy®, and life coaching®, is a hands on, in your face methodology that identifies issues, defines solutions, and creates action plans for your own performance.
Unlike traditional “therapy” we believe that 80% of our clients are quite capable of overcoming traditional issues that often are “prescription oriented,” or defined by long term ongoing therapy.
Think of Floyd like a non TV “Dr. Phil”, or Dr. Wayne Dyer that teaches the methodology of right thinking, and overcoming of obstacles that are almost entirely self perpetuated myths.
There are no guarantees with this work. No free lunches. No “buy 12 and get 1 free”.
The price is high, and it should be. $999.00 for 90 days of one on one counsel, email based, as often as you like. References available.
If at the end of 90 days you do not believe you have gained $999.00 worth for your SELF I will cheerfully refund ½ of your purchase price. This is not a guarantee as much as a commitment to the client….you will get what you paid for, and you will decide yourself if it’s “worth it”
*You are What You Decide*
Confront yourself. You created you.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.htm
Thursday, February 12, 2009
America Wants Good News
Yesterday the market hit Dow lows of 7812, our support bottom, twice. It moved close to 8000 several times. Calls were profitable for day traders, but continued to simply "hold", and puts did not gain value proportionately for the downside, the primary reason we had hesitated for a put trade yesterday, and continue to. As you'll note, we believe March expiry premiums are much too high, and volume still too low, and we'll stick with our open call sell offs through today or tomorrow, looking to sell at various Dow tops. All it takes is a catalyst to "break" the market, either leading to upside, or freefall.
We continue to see a large gain potential within the next several days. America wants good news, and we're long the call because of how support has held. We might miss, but let's hold our positions to see if a doubling can occur. Something is up.
It is hard to make money trading options around ranges like this, especially near expiry. And the world waits. Let's not risk new signal buys, yet.
In our Floydian therapy service we ask questions like What Do You Want? And we always find people list possessions first, before Dr. Floyd can hone them in to "no, not stuff, YOU."
Here's from a subscriber:
"You may like this article http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/02/10/happiness.possessions/index.html . It fits with your "What you WANT does not mean "buying stuff" or possessions." philosophy.
Mike"
Another subscriber wrote yesterday had an interesting comment:
"Floyd, I've been trading the Feb400 and Feb410 calls with you for a week, and have traded in and out a whopping 14 times now, all profitable. I just watch the Dow, like in your videos, and stay calm, go away from the computer, not get excited. I've learned so much from you, it's more like a teacher than a service, and when I saw 14 trades in a row, I never thought I could do it. And I've got inventory in the 410 still , so sure hope the market breaks. Thanks- Don in Wisconsin"
We continue to see a large gain potential within the next several days. America wants good news, and we're long the call because of how support has held. We might miss, but let's hold our positions to see if a doubling can occur. Something is up.
It is hard to make money trading options around ranges like this, especially near expiry. And the world waits. Let's not risk new signal buys, yet.
In our Floydian therapy service we ask questions like What Do You Want? And we always find people list possessions first, before Dr. Floyd can hone them in to "no, not stuff, YOU."
Here's from a subscriber:
"You may like this article http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/02/10/happiness.possessions/index.html . It fits with your "What you WANT does not mean "buying stuff" or possessions." philosophy.
Mike"
Another subscriber wrote yesterday had an interesting comment:
"Floyd, I've been trading the Feb400 and Feb410 calls with you for a week, and have traded in and out a whopping 14 times now, all profitable. I just watch the Dow, like in your videos, and stay calm, go away from the computer, not get excited. I've learned so much from you, it's more like a teacher than a service, and when I saw 14 trades in a row, I never thought I could do it. And I've got inventory in the 410 still , so sure hope the market breaks. Thanks- Don in Wisconsin"
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Testing November Lows is Possible
Everyone spoke yesterday. You've read the news. The talking heads can take no time for breathing. There is hope they may suffocate :)
The market allowed call day traders quick 1.00 per contract profits on both oexoptions.com and bluechipoptions, and we are combining services today because our commentary is around new Dow projections, and how we've fared. All buys to puts earlier this week have been profitable to our top range, and well beyond. Two buys have been made to our call, both OTM, and ATM (in OEX).
Sale prices will take place right now around the Dow projection bottom and tops we see. With the market initially reacting to the stimulus package negatively, the market achieved our projected bottoms at a theoretical Dow of 7821 by 3.30 p.m. EST.
Testing November lows is possible, to 7700, or just below it. Further move downwards would be based on how the market overall long term reacts to this stimulus package, and whether fear or greed win.
If greed is in the projections the market will hesitate at 8000, at 8150, at 8250, a strong resistance line,and perhaps 8350. Each hundred points here is important, as the market must climb past where fear has set in before.
We believe market upturn could reach 8350, and as high as 8550, on any positive reaction. We will hold all open calls, two or more buys made, through Thursday stop loss.
If futures are extremely negative we suggest not trading until midday, letting the market itself settle out. Our puts have been profitable, now let's see if the calls can hit it.
As we've stated, this is a massively high risk market, with whipsaw that is hard to even see occur it happens so fast, and with no history to show us a perspective of prior emotional reactions.
We have no new signal. Hold open calls and let's watch market conditions today.
The market allowed call day traders quick 1.00 per contract profits on both oexoptions.com and bluechipoptions, and we are combining services today because our commentary is around new Dow projections, and how we've fared. All buys to puts earlier this week have been profitable to our top range, and well beyond. Two buys have been made to our call, both OTM, and ATM (in OEX).
Sale prices will take place right now around the Dow projection bottom and tops we see. With the market initially reacting to the stimulus package negatively, the market achieved our projected bottoms at a theoretical Dow of 7821 by 3.30 p.m. EST.
Testing November lows is possible, to 7700, or just below it. Further move downwards would be based on how the market overall long term reacts to this stimulus package, and whether fear or greed win.
If greed is in the projections the market will hesitate at 8000, at 8150, at 8250, a strong resistance line,and perhaps 8350. Each hundred points here is important, as the market must climb past where fear has set in before.
We believe market upturn could reach 8350, and as high as 8550, on any positive reaction. We will hold all open calls, two or more buys made, through Thursday stop loss.
If futures are extremely negative we suggest not trading until midday, letting the market itself settle out. Our puts have been profitable, now let's see if the calls can hit it.
As we've stated, this is a massively high risk market, with whipsaw that is hard to even see occur it happens so fast, and with no history to show us a perspective of prior emotional reactions.
We have no new signal. Hold open calls and let's watch market conditions today.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
The World Awaits
Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the house the world awaits how the United States will avert what our President calls "dire circumstances". We've all heard the news, and read the analysts, and all of us have an opinion. And it's showing almost perfectly in the stock market, which precedes the economy. By 3 p.m. the market had moved from 8156 as a low to 8345 as a high, and continued to whipsaw in the last hour, in tight trading, showing the uncertainty of the investor, institutional and individual. No one knows what will happen, what to do, or even why it is happening.
President Obama:
“Economists from across the spectrum have warned that if we don’t act immediately, millions more jobs will be lost, and the national unemployment rate will approach double digits,” Obama said.
Obama is demanding a bill on his desk before Congress leaves for the Feb. 16 President’s Day holiday. A crucial procedural vote on the Senate legislation is scheduled for tonight, with a final vote planned tomorrow. The $827 billion Senate measure must then be reconciled with an $819 billion plan the House approved on Jan. 28.
We believe the market has two way trade tendency, and it proved right yesterday. The market was volatile, but only around mild S/R lines, with the market itself unsure of how to predict what will be said, determined, and with the falseness of the money we print to to do it, will lead our future. Both were available at best buy, but able to sell. We'll hold this dual strategy, expect second buys on one, and recommend another call for today's trading.
As we recommend, note we see strong support and resistance lines, and the tendency to test bottoms again. It's an anything goes market.
We chose OTM options for yesterday's trading, because of the high risk, and took open positions. Many Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students also emailed for entry points on more ATM issues, and successfully traded from 9.90 to 12.10 on the February 410 call. We'll begin trading in in general today.
President Obama:
“Economists from across the spectrum have warned that if we don’t act immediately, millions more jobs will be lost, and the national unemployment rate will approach double digits,” Obama said.
Obama is demanding a bill on his desk before Congress leaves for the Feb. 16 President’s Day holiday. A crucial procedural vote on the Senate legislation is scheduled for tonight, with a final vote planned tomorrow. The $827 billion Senate measure must then be reconciled with an $819 billion plan the House approved on Jan. 28.
We believe the market has two way trade tendency, and it proved right yesterday. The market was volatile, but only around mild S/R lines, with the market itself unsure of how to predict what will be said, determined, and with the falseness of the money we print to to do it, will lead our future. Both were available at best buy, but able to sell. We'll hold this dual strategy, expect second buys on one, and recommend another call for today's trading.
As we recommend, note we see strong support and resistance lines, and the tendency to test bottoms again. It's an anything goes market.
We chose OTM options for yesterday's trading, because of the high risk, and took open positions. Many Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students also emailed for entry points on more ATM issues, and successfully traded from 9.90 to 12.10 on the February 410 call. We'll begin trading in in general today.
Monday, February 9, 2009
All Signals Profitable For Us
All signals were profitable for us. The Dow hit tops of 8362, and lows of 8002. Our Dow projections are new this week, based on what we see as a now topping of the market, and potential downturn as the reality of the stimulus package settles in.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Yesterday Was a Perfect Day
Yesterday was a perfect day. All of our new and open signals were profitable yesterday. The perfect trading day, allowing both downside and upside.
The February 400C went from 5.90 to 11.70. The February 345P hit our top sells at 2.75. The February 390P went from 8.10 to 14.80. The Dow went from 8157 at the top to 7800 at the bottom.
Study our Dow projections carefully to see the range we are working in.
For your enjoyment:
Citigroup, Eight U.S. Banks Spending Millions on Stadium Deals
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aRcdswO7S3m0
We all made money yesterday. I'll "fish" one more day, and recommend only to the upside, expecting second buys. We may bottom test one more time, but upside is next.
The February 400C went from 5.90 to 11.70. The February 345P hit our top sells at 2.75. The February 390P went from 8.10 to 14.80. The Dow went from 8157 at the top to 7800 at the bottom.
Study our Dow projections carefully to see the range we are working in.
For your enjoyment:
Citigroup, Eight U.S. Banks Spending Millions on Stadium Deals
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=home&sid=aRcdswO7S3m0
We all made money yesterday. I'll "fish" one more day, and recommend only to the upside, expecting second buys. We may bottom test one more time, but upside is next.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Day Traders Were in Heaven
Many traders have written recently to comment on our Dow projections, and how close we are identifying support and resistance lines. And, many have asked for Floyd's thoughts on the long term trend of our market, and the economic stimulus package.
I've stayed off the soapbox on our stimulus package, as it's far from over, and sadly needed. The idea of a "bad bank" is smart, as we must as a nation filter out all the false financials that have been provided to us, and the banks are now beginning to open their books to show us just how much fraud has been created. The concept of the FDIC insuring the banks is ludicrous, as there is not enough money in FDIC to do so, just as there is not enough money in Social Security. The entire house of cards is falling, and we're soon to add a trillion dollars more in debt.
I believe there will be a Fibonacci retracement of 38.1% from the lowest lows, which as this point will put the market at 10,600 area. This could occur later this year, or in early 2010. Fibonnaci studies the natural evolution of patterns, and his magnificent "magic numbers" never seem to fail.
Unemployment was at 500,000 in November ( a false number, I believe) and is now at 2 million and rising. We'll easily see real adjusted unemployment of 20% or more if the government is able to truly take the false stats out of the unemployment figures. What this means is simple: without jobs, less spending, and spending is the critical part of our economic recovery.
Whipsaw is very likely. It's quite possible for the market to hit resistance lines and drop back to the 7750 area. And from this, rebound will again occur.
We saw much of this in yesterday's trading, with the market moving to 8200 on the theoretical Dow before 11.30 a.m. Traders who have been playing the February 400C were able to sell to highs of $12.80 before lunch hour. And, right at our resistance area the market began bottom testing again, allowing traders profits to the put.
Day traders were in heaven:
-"Floyd, bought and sold the 400C twice for 2.00 to 3.00 a contract, and still hold. Sold the puts for tight profits, and bought new puts at 8150, your top. Sold them for 40%. Three trades in one day profitable, and I've made day trading bucks two times each day this week. Your Dow projections are the key, and I study support and resistance around them"
CB
Shoot, every time I think I'll lose on something the support lines hold and I make money. I've learned from you to simply follow the rules. I study Bloomberg, and your alert I take notes on each day.
I've had 4 profitable trades so far this week, and I'm now 14 for 15 of the last trades with you. Best service I've ever used. You teach. Thanks.
MWB
I've stayed off the soapbox on our stimulus package, as it's far from over, and sadly needed. The idea of a "bad bank" is smart, as we must as a nation filter out all the false financials that have been provided to us, and the banks are now beginning to open their books to show us just how much fraud has been created. The concept of the FDIC insuring the banks is ludicrous, as there is not enough money in FDIC to do so, just as there is not enough money in Social Security. The entire house of cards is falling, and we're soon to add a trillion dollars more in debt.
I believe there will be a Fibonacci retracement of 38.1% from the lowest lows, which as this point will put the market at 10,600 area. This could occur later this year, or in early 2010. Fibonnaci studies the natural evolution of patterns, and his magnificent "magic numbers" never seem to fail.
Unemployment was at 500,000 in November ( a false number, I believe) and is now at 2 million and rising. We'll easily see real adjusted unemployment of 20% or more if the government is able to truly take the false stats out of the unemployment figures. What this means is simple: without jobs, less spending, and spending is the critical part of our economic recovery.
Whipsaw is very likely. It's quite possible for the market to hit resistance lines and drop back to the 7750 area. And from this, rebound will again occur.
We saw much of this in yesterday's trading, with the market moving to 8200 on the theoretical Dow before 11.30 a.m. Traders who have been playing the February 400C were able to sell to highs of $12.80 before lunch hour. And, right at our resistance area the market began bottom testing again, allowing traders profits to the put.
Day traders were in heaven:
-"Floyd, bought and sold the 400C twice for 2.00 to 3.00 a contract, and still hold. Sold the puts for tight profits, and bought new puts at 8150, your top. Sold them for 40%. Three trades in one day profitable, and I've made day trading bucks two times each day this week. Your Dow projections are the key, and I study support and resistance around them"
CB
Shoot, every time I think I'll lose on something the support lines hold and I make money. I've learned from you to simply follow the rules. I study Bloomberg, and your alert I take notes on each day.
I've had 4 profitable trades so far this week, and I'm now 14 for 15 of the last trades with you. Best service I've ever used. You teach. Thanks.
MWB
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Is it time for a flat tax?
What we saw yesterday was a classic set of flat lining around the magic numbers of 000's. The market hovered 7900 to near 8000 until almost 1.30 p.m. This allowed a number of our day traders to trade the February 400C for good profits, several times, on each reaction and move between support and resistance lines. In recent days we've seen more and more higher lows as the day ends, and repeated struggles around 8000.
Each time the market has not dropped to quite the 7700 bottom, meaning this test of November lows could still occur, or we are seeing higher lows. Flat lining is always a sign of strong action to follow. It is a build up period of fear.
We saw it end yesterday in late afternoon trading, holding above the magic 0000', 8000 and hitting highs at resistance lines at 8150.
Follow through today is key to see how much upside can occur before resistance lines block progress.
Shorts may begin to be readying covering their positions. It's a new month, and institutional buyers should be anteing up.
January's finished their weakest January on record, and the Dow's worst in 113 years. The 31% overall decline over the five months was the sharpest since the five months ended December 1937.
Historically stock's performances in January often foretold performance for the year. Gold remains a steady gainer. Oil is at all time lows. These are real facts. Most of our other facts in the U.S. right now are really just conjecture.
It appears the banks have little real money left, and when given money hoard it as they will otherwise be insolvent, or they buy fancy airplanes. What Obama inherits appears to my educated mind as "no one is in charge and the inmates have gone control of the asylum in Washington." We appear often at the end of banking as we know it, having violated so many principles and created opportunities for fraud.
We can see it even in OEX Options. Bernie Madoff used this tool to tell his traders it's where he made the money on his "good pick" stocks, but he never actually traded. But at the same time you can see 100 lot contracts move in popular same month options that build the price up for a short term, and these are sellers of OEX Options, only to be ready on the put side shift, even though the market itself did not shift, only the view of the buying trader for the OEX.
Floydian Soapbox: Now three Democrats have been slammed for not paying their fair share of taxes. They should be slammed. But it asks a key question: how many people cheat?
As a consultant for over 30 years to private businesses I've found few that did not advantage their books to control their taxes, and you've certainly seen it in recent disclosures. Are the tax laws so complex they are either not understood, or understood so well that fraud becomes common?
Is it time for a flat tax?
Each time the market has not dropped to quite the 7700 bottom, meaning this test of November lows could still occur, or we are seeing higher lows. Flat lining is always a sign of strong action to follow. It is a build up period of fear.
We saw it end yesterday in late afternoon trading, holding above the magic 0000', 8000 and hitting highs at resistance lines at 8150.
Follow through today is key to see how much upside can occur before resistance lines block progress.
Shorts may begin to be readying covering their positions. It's a new month, and institutional buyers should be anteing up.
January's finished their weakest January on record, and the Dow's worst in 113 years. The 31% overall decline over the five months was the sharpest since the five months ended December 1937.
Historically stock's performances in January often foretold performance for the year. Gold remains a steady gainer. Oil is at all time lows. These are real facts. Most of our other facts in the U.S. right now are really just conjecture.
It appears the banks have little real money left, and when given money hoard it as they will otherwise be insolvent, or they buy fancy airplanes. What Obama inherits appears to my educated mind as "no one is in charge and the inmates have gone control of the asylum in Washington." We appear often at the end of banking as we know it, having violated so many principles and created opportunities for fraud.
We can see it even in OEX Options. Bernie Madoff used this tool to tell his traders it's where he made the money on his "good pick" stocks, but he never actually traded. But at the same time you can see 100 lot contracts move in popular same month options that build the price up for a short term, and these are sellers of OEX Options, only to be ready on the put side shift, even though the market itself did not shift, only the view of the buying trader for the OEX.
Floydian Soapbox: Now three Democrats have been slammed for not paying their fair share of taxes. They should be slammed. But it asks a key question: how many people cheat?
As a consultant for over 30 years to private businesses I've found few that did not advantage their books to control their taxes, and you've certainly seen it in recent disclosures. Are the tax laws so complex they are either not understood, or understood so well that fraud becomes common?
Is it time for a flat tax?
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The Madoff Losers Did Not Watch the Basket
There is a market maxim that one should never put all their eggs in one basket, and another that you could put all your eggs in one basket as long as you watch the basket.
The Madoff losers did not watch the basket.
Many of our Advanced Mentoring clients study Bloomberg or Yahoo twice a month as they announce the change in shorts during the prior two weeks. We must be careful as we analyze this, as it can be misinterpreted with derivatives. When we see major institutional investors buying stock with increasing price volume it's a telling sign, IF there is no major news. When price precedes news someone knows something already, and it's time to be watchful for the shorts coming out of the closet.
Market conditions are extraordinary for three simple reasons:
1. The banks have been caught lying to us, and to themselves as they prospered, and now have illiquid assets that they are afraid will worsen. This is why when Paulson and Bushy gave them the money before, with no rules, they simply hoarded it. They are afraid to loan money as their "asset base" they know is horrible and will worsen. They want to stay liquid.
The idea of a bad bank to move these fake assets has merit.
2. Deflation and then inflation are real threats. The lowered price of oil shows deflationary tendencies. What is good for consumers here may really not be.
3. Any dollars Obama and team nationalize and put to work (roads, infrastructure) et al will take a huge increase in our debt, the Treasuries we print. They must hold up in value so the Communist Chinese can support us.
This is a sad fact.
Low interest rates are not bullish, but bearish, as they show the lack of demand for money. This is scary stuff. If deflation is truly real, we will not know it on time, as the facts will be historical in nature, and "retroactive".
But it is simple: "When there is demand for money, the price of money rises. When the demand lessens, the price of money declines. The Fed has slashed prices due to a decline in sales.
Interest rates on Treasuries, if they continue at .25%, show no demand for the USD. Investors lose money investing in a treasury at these rates, if there is any inflation.
Floyd believes we are experiencing inflation, deflation and stagflation at the same time.
And I believe bail out is critically necessary, as is nationalizing, and that the U.S. must make the Treasury bill a sound investment.
All of this leads to how the market is acting. And, it's like a yo yo. The market moved down at opening, missing a buy to our OTM put, to hit 7827 before bouncing several times near 8000. Day traders were able to make up to $2.00 per contract in quick trades around the market whipsaw, and we continue to hold this position.
Traders were also able to buy in to our OTM put at below prior day close, and could have sold for tight profits.
We'll list both as open positions, as whipsaw may continue, before upside. Study our Dow Projections carefully.
The Madoff losers did not watch the basket.
Many of our Advanced Mentoring clients study Bloomberg or Yahoo twice a month as they announce the change in shorts during the prior two weeks. We must be careful as we analyze this, as it can be misinterpreted with derivatives. When we see major institutional investors buying stock with increasing price volume it's a telling sign, IF there is no major news. When price precedes news someone knows something already, and it's time to be watchful for the shorts coming out of the closet.
Market conditions are extraordinary for three simple reasons:
1. The banks have been caught lying to us, and to themselves as they prospered, and now have illiquid assets that they are afraid will worsen. This is why when Paulson and Bushy gave them the money before, with no rules, they simply hoarded it. They are afraid to loan money as their "asset base" they know is horrible and will worsen. They want to stay liquid.
The idea of a bad bank to move these fake assets has merit.
2. Deflation and then inflation are real threats. The lowered price of oil shows deflationary tendencies. What is good for consumers here may really not be.
3. Any dollars Obama and team nationalize and put to work (roads, infrastructure) et al will take a huge increase in our debt, the Treasuries we print. They must hold up in value so the Communist Chinese can support us.
This is a sad fact.
Low interest rates are not bullish, but bearish, as they show the lack of demand for money. This is scary stuff. If deflation is truly real, we will not know it on time, as the facts will be historical in nature, and "retroactive".
But it is simple: "When there is demand for money, the price of money rises. When the demand lessens, the price of money declines. The Fed has slashed prices due to a decline in sales.
Interest rates on Treasuries, if they continue at .25%, show no demand for the USD. Investors lose money investing in a treasury at these rates, if there is any inflation.
Floyd believes we are experiencing inflation, deflation and stagflation at the same time.
And I believe bail out is critically necessary, as is nationalizing, and that the U.S. must make the Treasury bill a sound investment.
All of this leads to how the market is acting. And, it's like a yo yo. The market moved down at opening, missing a buy to our OTM put, to hit 7827 before bouncing several times near 8000. Day traders were able to make up to $2.00 per contract in quick trades around the market whipsaw, and we continue to hold this position.
Traders were also able to buy in to our OTM put at below prior day close, and could have sold for tight profits.
We'll list both as open positions, as whipsaw may continue, before upside. Study our Dow Projections carefully.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Inflation is Coming
At Blue Chip Options I've been lecturing from the soapbox about U.S. Treasuries, and recommending an ETF ultrashort fund called TBT. This is a low risk way to potentially gain a 40% profit on the impending collapse of the U.S. Treasury. It's our new bubble. TBT, or the ProShares Ultra Short Lehman 20+Year Treasury ETF will inversely doubly short the inverse of the U.S. Treasury Index. This means: when treasuries tank, and they will, this ETF should soar.
At Blue Chip Options (www.bluechipoptions.com) we've also recommended a specific option on this index that could hit 100% returns. During the 5 short weeks we've played it at Blue Chip it's returned 20 to 39% each time, in tight trades.
The U.S. Treasury cannot get away with 0 interest rates forever. Even Fat Americans will soon realize they are investing in nothing, for nothing, and will begin to demand a return.
There is also no doubt to me that inflation is coming. The FEDS will flood the market with fake money to cover the economic stimulus plans, and inflation will begin, at which time the Feds will begin raising interest rates on U.S. Treasuries. And as that happens, the investing public will become less fear oriented, and begin wanting returns.
With this said, Friday the market fell again, to the same just above 8000 support line. I've been watching VIX fall all of this last week as it declined. This can be interpreted that the trading floor and public are beyond the fear, more complacent, and that a trade range is developing, as we've noted. Typically the market would now surprise us, provide more fear, and the market drops could deepen. A deeper downturn, back to our 7700 and lower lows of last November is very possible, around whipsaw. Some chartists see the downside as so over extended that an upside run is likely, after hitting support lines, while others think a deeper level of fear may need to occur, a retesting of lowest lows, in order to "clean" the market.
We have an open position to the Feb400C, with two buys made, and will continue to hold through Wednesday or Thursday of this week, depending upon your buy time. Remember, # of days stop loss begins the day after you've bought the option, or if a second buy, the day after the second buy is made and is sold no later than the end of the 4th trading day from there.
Follow futures carefully. We will also list today an out of the money put as a potential buy, looking for a whipsaw trade. In market conditions as volatile as we are seeing them please take prudent risk. Each time we've had a market turn up this past month it's been short, and with no follow through.
And from trader JK:
Define: Liquidity
Liquidity: When you look at your investments and wet your pants.
At Blue Chip Options (www.bluechipoptions.com) we've also recommended a specific option on this index that could hit 100% returns. During the 5 short weeks we've played it at Blue Chip it's returned 20 to 39% each time, in tight trades.
The U.S. Treasury cannot get away with 0 interest rates forever. Even Fat Americans will soon realize they are investing in nothing, for nothing, and will begin to demand a return.
There is also no doubt to me that inflation is coming. The FEDS will flood the market with fake money to cover the economic stimulus plans, and inflation will begin, at which time the Feds will begin raising interest rates on U.S. Treasuries. And as that happens, the investing public will become less fear oriented, and begin wanting returns.
With this said, Friday the market fell again, to the same just above 8000 support line. I've been watching VIX fall all of this last week as it declined. This can be interpreted that the trading floor and public are beyond the fear, more complacent, and that a trade range is developing, as we've noted. Typically the market would now surprise us, provide more fear, and the market drops could deepen. A deeper downturn, back to our 7700 and lower lows of last November is very possible, around whipsaw. Some chartists see the downside as so over extended that an upside run is likely, after hitting support lines, while others think a deeper level of fear may need to occur, a retesting of lowest lows, in order to "clean" the market.
We have an open position to the Feb400C, with two buys made, and will continue to hold through Wednesday or Thursday of this week, depending upon your buy time. Remember, # of days stop loss begins the day after you've bought the option, or if a second buy, the day after the second buy is made and is sold no later than the end of the 4th trading day from there.
Follow futures carefully. We will also list today an out of the money put as a potential buy, looking for a whipsaw trade. In market conditions as volatile as we are seeing them please take prudent risk. Each time we've had a market turn up this past month it's been short, and with no follow through.
And from trader JK:
Define: Liquidity
Liquidity: When you look at your investments and wet your pants.
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