The whipsaw in this market shows a nation poised in faith and fear that something will save the situation. Traders were able to take buys to the new call trade, and we'll list another one today, as we believe we'll shortly bottom again, and begin an upsurge. Study our Dow projections carefully.
With the House passing the stimulus bill there will be an 810 billion jolt to the economy; Floyd predicts more than 2 trillion more actually after a "bad bank" is set up. The concept is good economics. Separate all that is bad to one bank, and have all the banks come clean on the derivatives and accounting games, that never end, as foreclosures rise, and home values plummet. We believe the market will have a positive reaction to this, good or bad, around whipsaw.
We experienced this yesterday. As you study our Dow projections in I'm leaving a historical dating of each time these support and resistance lines have been met. The wild card is another sell off to the November lows at 7700.
We continue to see a trade range building around our Dow projections, with repeated struggles at each support and resistance line. The market needs a catalyst in "news" or "action" to trigger fear or greed.
What we do now is trade softly and slowly, pick only one of the two calls listed, and buy for another upside run.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Thursday, January 29, 2009
What is Necessary Now is JOBS
Halliburton is paying 559 million to the U.S. to settle charges that one its former units bribed Nigerian officials during the construction of a gas plant.
Read this carefully. NO mention or "caught" yet on the outright fraud perpetrated in the Middle East as Halliburton rebuilt what we destroyed. I've written about this for years, and it's all coming true.
The vast corruption we've experienced is to the core of our economy, led by our top officials. When I compare Clinton's sexual lies to what have recently occurred, it astounds me. Think back to my alerts this past year of "false facts" abound, of "supply side economics does not work" and to our Blue Chip option subscribers of selling 1/3 of holdings at 14,100, 1/3 at 11,500, and now building inventory.
It's not to brag, but to share what is obvious. What we have experienced in the past 8 years has made us stupid, as we believed all put in front of us, and happily lapped up the debt, the larger homes, the home equity.
What is necessary now is JOBS, and helping small businesses employ people. Credit must flow again. All the corruption will be slowly uncovered, as new corruption begins, and it will not end.
However, with controls, and a nationalized FDR methodology, we can be the first beacon to the world, as we once were, before they began copying our decadence in this past decade.
It is the lack of credit, the utter unending "new bad news" each day on who is discovered to have frauded, that stops us from a market that begins to self correct. Every part of our sell off was necessary, sadly, to put to light supply side economics, and the "betting" that became the stock market. For years I've preached: 1. Banks are stupid and evil (sure proven right), 2. Talking heads lead Wall Street, with babbles to help their bonuses, on instruments that are not even real, or vastly overvalued and 3. Our debts will overcome us.
As you review Floydian philosophy I know that I often articulate with true passion (anger) about the religious right, about neo conservatives, and about all of those that attempt to legislate our morality.
Put up with me, as my "false facts" babbles this past year are proving startling right.
Credit is next. The defaults will be monstrous. The market is far from absorbing the true issues we deal with.
Yesterday the market hit tops at 8451, and traders were able to sell their open Feb400C, bought at 12.50 to 14.50 to highs of 22.00, and all could have sold to our top of 17.40.
This was a highly profitable call for us.
Study our Dow projections carefully, as there is potential for upside, but downside risk we now think stronger, for another correction to a short lived rally.
Read this carefully. NO mention or "caught" yet on the outright fraud perpetrated in the Middle East as Halliburton rebuilt what we destroyed. I've written about this for years, and it's all coming true.
The vast corruption we've experienced is to the core of our economy, led by our top officials. When I compare Clinton's sexual lies to what have recently occurred, it astounds me. Think back to my alerts this past year of "false facts" abound, of "supply side economics does not work" and to our Blue Chip option subscribers of selling 1/3 of holdings at 14,100, 1/3 at 11,500, and now building inventory.
It's not to brag, but to share what is obvious. What we have experienced in the past 8 years has made us stupid, as we believed all put in front of us, and happily lapped up the debt, the larger homes, the home equity.
What is necessary now is JOBS, and helping small businesses employ people. Credit must flow again. All the corruption will be slowly uncovered, as new corruption begins, and it will not end.
However, with controls, and a nationalized FDR methodology, we can be the first beacon to the world, as we once were, before they began copying our decadence in this past decade.
It is the lack of credit, the utter unending "new bad news" each day on who is discovered to have frauded, that stops us from a market that begins to self correct. Every part of our sell off was necessary, sadly, to put to light supply side economics, and the "betting" that became the stock market. For years I've preached: 1. Banks are stupid and evil (sure proven right), 2. Talking heads lead Wall Street, with babbles to help their bonuses, on instruments that are not even real, or vastly overvalued and 3. Our debts will overcome us.
As you review Floydian philosophy I know that I often articulate with true passion (anger) about the religious right, about neo conservatives, and about all of those that attempt to legislate our morality.
Put up with me, as my "false facts" babbles this past year are proving startling right.
Credit is next. The defaults will be monstrous. The market is far from absorbing the true issues we deal with.
Yesterday the market hit tops at 8451, and traders were able to sell their open Feb400C, bought at 12.50 to 14.50 to highs of 22.00, and all could have sold to our top of 17.40.
This was a highly profitable call for us.
Study our Dow projections carefully, as there is potential for upside, but downside risk we now think stronger, for another correction to a short lived rally.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
We Only Know What We Know
One of out every four of us believes we have been reincarnated, 44 percent believe in ghosts, 71% in angels, and 40% of us believe God created all things in their present form during the last 10,000 years. It it this type of dichotomy that so separates us, as there are others that believe the exact opposite. And, both are right. We only know what we know.
Here's something else that we as citizens do not understand. In the last decade small businesses have created 60 to 80% of new new jobs. Small companies of 500 or fewer people employ more than half of the country's private sector workers.
These are huge statistics. It is the small business most affected by the layoffs and cuts, as it takes the circle of pain even deeper.
The market yesterday moved so slightly. First it touched our Dow top at 8265, and quickly reverted to a support line at 8043. Some chartists believe 8265 may be a top, and we'll now test 7700 again.
We see more struggles for upside, and consider another 200 point move up still possible, before downside. The market is vastly unpredictable even to a chartist.
In 2008 the S &P 500 closed up or down more than 5% 17 times in a single day; between 1956 and 2007 it did this also, 17 times.
Volatility is king.
Here's something else that we as citizens do not understand. In the last decade small businesses have created 60 to 80% of new new jobs. Small companies of 500 or fewer people employ more than half of the country's private sector workers.
These are huge statistics. It is the small business most affected by the layoffs and cuts, as it takes the circle of pain even deeper.
The market yesterday moved so slightly. First it touched our Dow top at 8265, and quickly reverted to a support line at 8043. Some chartists believe 8265 may be a top, and we'll now test 7700 again.
We see more struggles for upside, and consider another 200 point move up still possible, before downside. The market is vastly unpredictable even to a chartist.
In 2008 the S &P 500 closed up or down more than 5% 17 times in a single day; between 1956 and 2007 it did this also, 17 times.
Volatility is king.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Once Again, Things are Not as they Appear
Yesterday's morning trading showed a top right to our resistance lines at 8270, before bottom testing just below 8000. Several new subscribers wrote in early trading that "we had no trade" as the market opened up, and they thusly could not buy the signal. This is true. Some of our traders add 10% to prior day close as their top to pay, and others hold strictly to this rule. Today the Feb400C, for example, was profitable for traders that did buy above prior day close, as it sold to highs of 17.40.
Some day traders with us reported single $2.00 per contract swings on this issue yesterday, and others did wait and were able to buy the option on the downside to prior day close, or just below.
What is important here is that all three approaches are correct. With each, a second buy twice the first buy may be required. Profit goals are then reestablished on the average. Chartists should recalculate the pivot/support mid day on high swing volume days, if following the support and resistance tools.
Our morning alert is a complex instrument, giving you all the facts you need to trade the market that day. Study every part of it.
Markets thrive when information flows freely, and they seize up when uncertainty replaces understanding. We are dealing with an issue the country, and the world has not dealt with before, the fact that our bankers and companies have created false financials that created more wealth, and bet on borrowing, stimulating large debt and increasing euphoria. Any trillion we now put in, and it could be trillions, must be narrowly focused to create jobs and move money. Create a middle class again, that really spends well. It's the 1950's all over if we do it right, post war, and its truly scary to see how a "depression" could begin over more and more false facts, never checked, come to the service.
Where did the Paulson billions go? Toxic debts continue, and the credit markets appear frozen. Fraud is being uncovered now in every country, as if the whole world has been building a massive bubble, with eyes closed.
The Chinese peasants return to the rice fields, as their new jobs are gone, the factories slowed.
Wonder if we will ever find if "we" are accountable for all this, or if certain people are?
Things are not as they appear.
Some day traders with us reported single $2.00 per contract swings on this issue yesterday, and others did wait and were able to buy the option on the downside to prior day close, or just below.
What is important here is that all three approaches are correct. With each, a second buy twice the first buy may be required. Profit goals are then reestablished on the average. Chartists should recalculate the pivot/support mid day on high swing volume days, if following the support and resistance tools.
Our morning alert is a complex instrument, giving you all the facts you need to trade the market that day. Study every part of it.
Markets thrive when information flows freely, and they seize up when uncertainty replaces understanding. We are dealing with an issue the country, and the world has not dealt with before, the fact that our bankers and companies have created false financials that created more wealth, and bet on borrowing, stimulating large debt and increasing euphoria. Any trillion we now put in, and it could be trillions, must be narrowly focused to create jobs and move money. Create a middle class again, that really spends well. It's the 1950's all over if we do it right, post war, and its truly scary to see how a "depression" could begin over more and more false facts, never checked, come to the service.
Where did the Paulson billions go? Toxic debts continue, and the credit markets appear frozen. Fraud is being uncovered now in every country, as if the whole world has been building a massive bubble, with eyes closed.
The Chinese peasants return to the rice fields, as their new jobs are gone, the factories slowed.
Wonder if we will ever find if "we" are accountable for all this, or if certain people are?
Things are not as they appear.
Monday, January 26, 2009
What's Next? NO ONE Knows
January historically ends the "best three month span" of the stock market. Judging from these past three months it's scary to think these were the best three months.
Trader JPW sent the following, which helps with our perspective:
"I know you like these kinds of headlines for your alerts, thought you might find it amusing:
*Headlines On This Date 4 Years Ago:*
* "Republicans spending $42 million on inauguration while troops*
* Die in unarmored Humvees"*
* "Bush extravagance exceeds any reason during tough economic times"*
* "Fat cats get their $42 million inauguration party,*
* Ordinary Americans get the shaft"*
-----------------
* Headlines This Week:*
* "Historic Obama Inauguration will cost only $120 million"*
* "Obama Spends $120 million on inauguration; America Needs A Big Party"*
* "Everyman Obama shows America how to celebrate"*
* "Citibank executives contribute $8 million to Obama Inauguration"*
We suggested a mid day buy Friday on the February 400C, and many traders were able to buy in at 10.50 area, selling to 12.50, within an hour, or continue to hold. What's next for the market is easy to help us understand:
NO one knows. Some economists and chartists see a continued downside to the S & P at 500, meaning another 35 to 47% overall drop to the Dow from our November lows. These dooms-dayers have valuable data and opinion that can validate their opinions. Others, in turn, see a continued whipsaw around November lows at 7700 (which we test again and again) to the rally effect rebounds near 9050 that we experienced earlier this year.
Both are right. The optimists, of which I have been one, see a Fib retracement of 38.1% from the market lows, perhaps by the end of this year, putting the market at 10,600. Market conditions, however, are so volatile, with banking sector news by the hour, that any trend analysis beyond 14 days we consider almost irrelevant.
Trader MLD Friday wrote: "Great trade on the call, Floyd. Got 2.00 per contract within an hour of the buy, and I"m out. I'm 13 for 14 on the last trades, great profits."
Trader JPW sent the following, which helps with our perspective:
"I know you like these kinds of headlines for your alerts, thought you might find it amusing:
*Headlines On This Date 4 Years Ago:*
* "Republicans spending $42 million on inauguration while troops*
* Die in unarmored Humvees"*
* "Bush extravagance exceeds any reason during tough economic times"*
* "Fat cats get their $42 million inauguration party,*
* Ordinary Americans get the shaft"*
-----------------
* Headlines This Week:*
* "Historic Obama Inauguration will cost only $120 million"*
* "Obama Spends $120 million on inauguration; America Needs A Big Party"*
* "Everyman Obama shows America how to celebrate"*
* "Citibank executives contribute $8 million to Obama Inauguration"*
We suggested a mid day buy Friday on the February 400C, and many traders were able to buy in at 10.50 area, selling to 12.50, within an hour, or continue to hold. What's next for the market is easy to help us understand:
NO one knows. Some economists and chartists see a continued downside to the S & P at 500, meaning another 35 to 47% overall drop to the Dow from our November lows. These dooms-dayers have valuable data and opinion that can validate their opinions. Others, in turn, see a continued whipsaw around November lows at 7700 (which we test again and again) to the rally effect rebounds near 9050 that we experienced earlier this year.
Both are right. The optimists, of which I have been one, see a Fib retracement of 38.1% from the market lows, perhaps by the end of this year, putting the market at 10,600. Market conditions, however, are so volatile, with banking sector news by the hour, that any trend analysis beyond 14 days we consider almost irrelevant.
Trader MLD Friday wrote: "Great trade on the call, Floyd. Got 2.00 per contract within an hour of the buy, and I"m out. I'm 13 for 14 on the last trades, great profits."
Friday, January 23, 2009
Market Fluctuations are Extraordinary
Market fluctuations are at this point simply extraordinary. At opening the market made morning moves down to test bottoms again, hitting 7917 before swinging up.
Our new buy to the Feb400C could have made as low as 11.30 and sold to highs of 15.00 by 2.15 p.m. EST. Many traders reported fast, profitable day trades on this position.
We continue to see the potential of upside to key resistance areas, and continue to see downside tests. It's not yet time to play two way trades, as we see a potential topping, but with market fluctuations as we are seeing please make note that the risk of trading is higher.
And with that, I'm flying home today, and will not be online until after hours. Good trading, for yet another profitable day. One loss now out of the last 13 trades!
Floydian Therapy:
Different schools of thought over the centuries have found different explanations for man’s apparently inherently flawed state. Taoists call it imbalance, Buddhists call it ignorance, Islam blames our misery on rebellion from God, and Christians attribute all of our suffering to original sin. Freudians say that unhappiness is the inevitable result of the clash between our natural drives and civilization’s needs.
Jungian psychologists believe desire is the design flaw.
Each of us strives to find what we believe in, and many of us then spend our lives telling others that they are wrong for not believing the same thing.
We wrongly believe that our limited little egos constitute our whole entire universe.
We have failed to recognize our deeper divine character. We don’t realize that, somewhere within us all, there does exist a Supreme Self who is eternally at peace.
That Supreme Self is our true identity, universal and divine.
The Greek Philosopher Epictetus said, “You bear God within you, poor wretch, and know it not."
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Our new buy to the Feb400C could have made as low as 11.30 and sold to highs of 15.00 by 2.15 p.m. EST. Many traders reported fast, profitable day trades on this position.
We continue to see the potential of upside to key resistance areas, and continue to see downside tests. It's not yet time to play two way trades, as we see a potential topping, but with market fluctuations as we are seeing please make note that the risk of trading is higher.
And with that, I'm flying home today, and will not be online until after hours. Good trading, for yet another profitable day. One loss now out of the last 13 trades!
Floydian Therapy:
Different schools of thought over the centuries have found different explanations for man’s apparently inherently flawed state. Taoists call it imbalance, Buddhists call it ignorance, Islam blames our misery on rebellion from God, and Christians attribute all of our suffering to original sin. Freudians say that unhappiness is the inevitable result of the clash between our natural drives and civilization’s needs.
Jungian psychologists believe desire is the design flaw.
Each of us strives to find what we believe in, and many of us then spend our lives telling others that they are wrong for not believing the same thing.
We wrongly believe that our limited little egos constitute our whole entire universe.
We have failed to recognize our deeper divine character. We don’t realize that, somewhere within us all, there does exist a Supreme Self who is eternally at peace.
That Supreme Self is our true identity, universal and divine.
The Greek Philosopher Epictetus said, “You bear God within you, poor wretch, and know it not."
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Upside is Still Possible, Before More Sell Off
Today or tomorrow historically may show a market high. Trading yesterday began with market low tests of 7896, and market upswing by 2.20 p.m. that allowed traders to buy the Feb400C at 11.00 and sell to highs of 12.60 to 13.00 in day trading. The market showed real fervor in its' move up. The market rode up 279 points by day end, erasing most of yesterday's losses. Study our Dow projections carefully, as we see a topping, and shift in sentiment, no later than Monday of next week. In other words, upside is still possible, before more sell off.
Our comments today are solely around the Dow, so study our support and resistance lines carefully. We see MORE upside, and MORE downside. Whipsaw.
From our subscribers:
"Purchased at 11.50. sold partials at 16. Had a sell order at 17, all gone......
Guess I'll have to ride the 460's up from here." BD
"Floyd nice on the new call. Got in at 11.50 and rode it to 16.00" I've hit 9 of last 10."-LS
Floydian Therapy:
Trader PC from Germany,utilizing our Advanced Mentoring and Floyd therapy:
Dear Floyd,
I wish you and your loved ones a peaceful and prosperous New Year.
You haven't heard much from me of late - for the reason that you have brought me to the point where I do not need to ask you anything concerning trading OEX Options but I am always "present" with you.
I now trade the OEX very successfully and at the close of the market I set myself the small daily target of "tomorrow's" trade selection and Dow projections in advance of your alert to see how close I am to you. I am pleased that I have rarely differed since mid-October, Ha! even today's Feb 460C. I was checking through the Feb premiums yesterday during the market. Although on the Count I seem constantly one point different from you but the bias is always the same.
I always feel a bit self-conscious making the following sort of comment but it is the making of it and not the truth or sentiment of it which makes me self-conscious and thus I have to say it. There have really only been 2 people in my life who made enormous contributions to the forming of me, to the extent that the effect from others is merely the odd touch of detail here or there.
These are my father and you. In essence the influence of you both is the same with equal weight if I discount the "weighting" which family has and see you both as men. In both cases it is not so much what you have both taught as what you have both inspired me and motivated me to find out for myself.
:-) I could make the claim that your switch from politics to esoterics just before Christmas were written just to me, especially your comments on fear and worry!!, at a time they were worth repeating to me, I make no small claim when I say that my contact with you has changed my life and your comment today concerning the Law of Attraction is spookily timely :-).
I recall asking you once how, from your background you had managed to lose $1/4 million by trading options. You answer to that started to rattle around inside me some time after you wrote it as applying to me. Since my "crash in 2005" as I now refer to it (so that I can treat it as a single event rather than the culmination of a decade of directionless apathy as it really was) I have studied myself in depth, as I continue to. This crash was a friendly obstacle, guiding pain to being a pivot point (pun intended) in my life and the path which came out of it led to you and, due to the "energy" imparted by you will continue. 2008 was sort of R1 in the bull trend of my life which started in 2005 which was Support 5 or something.
You wrote "I forgot to apply what I knew". This is what I had done in life. I trust you forgive me for borrowing this from you as I now use it if I speak to others on anything to do with their or my direction in life. We quote others because they say what we want to say but they have already said it better :-).
Some time ago you related your experience with an engineer who wanted to become and did become a beachcomber. I identified with him completely. I do not wish to become a beachcomber but I do identify with your client(?) in that, although I am very good at what I do for paid employment, far better than many I see, I have never had the slightest interest in it whatsoever and redundancy again at age 53 is one of the main props of why. At heart, in character and disposition I am a trader, I was a trader in options on racecourses at 21 and it was totally "me". I have never done anything in life with any enthusiasm since. I am often amazed at how well I can appear to be a motivated employee - pass me my oscar!!
2005 to 2008 were my apprentice years to returning to what I had forgotten to apply. In 2009 I graduate. I don't quite know what yet, nor how but it simply will be. I will break the chain of doing what I have been doing since I stopped horse trading. During this year, I will visit you and tell you over the beer. When I have done this I will know it is real.
You have to stop wearing your wishbone where your backbone should be.
Letting go is a scary enterprise for those of us who believe that the world revolves only because it has a handle on the top of it which we personally turn, and that if we were to drop this handle for even a moment that it might be the end of the universeJ
Cease your relentless participation.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Our comments today are solely around the Dow, so study our support and resistance lines carefully. We see MORE upside, and MORE downside. Whipsaw.
From our subscribers:
"Purchased at 11.50. sold partials at 16. Had a sell order at 17, all gone......
Guess I'll have to ride the 460's up from here." BD
"Floyd nice on the new call. Got in at 11.50 and rode it to 16.00" I've hit 9 of last 10."-LS
Floydian Therapy:
Trader PC from Germany,utilizing our Advanced Mentoring and Floyd therapy:
Dear Floyd,
I wish you and your loved ones a peaceful and prosperous New Year.
You haven't heard much from me of late - for the reason that you have brought me to the point where I do not need to ask you anything concerning trading OEX Options but I am always "present" with you.
I now trade the OEX very successfully and at the close of the market I set myself the small daily target of "tomorrow's" trade selection and Dow projections in advance of your alert to see how close I am to you. I am pleased that I have rarely differed since mid-October, Ha! even today's Feb 460C. I was checking through the Feb premiums yesterday during the market. Although on the Count I seem constantly one point different from you but the bias is always the same.
I always feel a bit self-conscious making the following sort of comment but it is the making of it and not the truth or sentiment of it which makes me self-conscious and thus I have to say it. There have really only been 2 people in my life who made enormous contributions to the forming of me, to the extent that the effect from others is merely the odd touch of detail here or there.
These are my father and you. In essence the influence of you both is the same with equal weight if I discount the "weighting" which family has and see you both as men. In both cases it is not so much what you have both taught as what you have both inspired me and motivated me to find out for myself.
:-) I could make the claim that your switch from politics to esoterics just before Christmas were written just to me, especially your comments on fear and worry!!, at a time they were worth repeating to me, I make no small claim when I say that my contact with you has changed my life and your comment today concerning the Law of Attraction is spookily timely :-).
I recall asking you once how, from your background you had managed to lose $1/4 million by trading options. You answer to that started to rattle around inside me some time after you wrote it as applying to me. Since my "crash in 2005" as I now refer to it (so that I can treat it as a single event rather than the culmination of a decade of directionless apathy as it really was) I have studied myself in depth, as I continue to. This crash was a friendly obstacle, guiding pain to being a pivot point (pun intended) in my life and the path which came out of it led to you and, due to the "energy" imparted by you will continue. 2008 was sort of R1 in the bull trend of my life which started in 2005 which was Support 5 or something.
You wrote "I forgot to apply what I knew". This is what I had done in life. I trust you forgive me for borrowing this from you as I now use it if I speak to others on anything to do with their or my direction in life. We quote others because they say what we want to say but they have already said it better :-).
Some time ago you related your experience with an engineer who wanted to become and did become a beachcomber. I identified with him completely. I do not wish to become a beachcomber but I do identify with your client(?) in that, although I am very good at what I do for paid employment, far better than many I see, I have never had the slightest interest in it whatsoever and redundancy again at age 53 is one of the main props of why. At heart, in character and disposition I am a trader, I was a trader in options on racecourses at 21 and it was totally "me". I have never done anything in life with any enthusiasm since. I am often amazed at how well I can appear to be a motivated employee - pass me my oscar!!
2005 to 2008 were my apprentice years to returning to what I had forgotten to apply. In 2009 I graduate. I don't quite know what yet, nor how but it simply will be. I will break the chain of doing what I have been doing since I stopped horse trading. During this year, I will visit you and tell you over the beer. When I have done this I will know it is real.
You have to stop wearing your wishbone where your backbone should be.
Letting go is a scary enterprise for those of us who believe that the world revolves only because it has a handle on the top of it which we personally turn, and that if we were to drop this handle for even a moment that it might be the end of the universeJ
Cease your relentless participation.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The Market Will Lead the Economy
We are here and it is now. Further than that all human knowledge is moonshine.
- H. L. Mencken
World history was made yesterday. A nation came together. This happened once at 9/11, and a major opportunity to unite our country did not occur. President Obama represents hope to the world, and is playing his role well. His job is to facilitate and get systems and people working together. And heavens, we need it. A world torn about by fraud and greed, and now fear for the repercussions of our excess. Supply side economics is officially dead. The middle class may soon be restored.
The market reaction was not euphoric, YET, but initially one of fear. The market dropped to 7907 on the theoretical Dow, in constant downside trading. Traders were only able to buy into the put recommended if buying above prior day close, but some reported doing so after following futures and selling for 70% profits. Others, that follow my buy no higher than prior day close, simply missed the put opportunity. We'll have our first stop loss on our open February call today.
We think the market will lead the economy, as it always does, and that there may be euphoria and relief in short term rally's, and bottom testing that occurs again. There is no magic pill.
Study our Dow projections carefully, as we adjust to show the bottom test coming first. We expected a top run first, another bottom test, and the over-extension count to the put continues, breaking all historical patterns for # of down days.
If you're confused....so is the world. Some day and markets are just not meant for trading.
Floydian Therapy:
People think a soul mate is your perfect fit, and that’s what everyone wants. But a true soul mate is a mirror, the person who shows you everything that’s holding you back, the person who brings you to your own attention so you can change your life. A true soul mate is probably the most important person you’ll ever meet, because they tear down your walls and smack you awake. Soul mates come into your life just to reveal another layer of yourself to YOU, and then they leave. This is my goal in Floydian Therapy. It can be around trading, or just around YOU.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
- H. L. Mencken
World history was made yesterday. A nation came together. This happened once at 9/11, and a major opportunity to unite our country did not occur. President Obama represents hope to the world, and is playing his role well. His job is to facilitate and get systems and people working together. And heavens, we need it. A world torn about by fraud and greed, and now fear for the repercussions of our excess. Supply side economics is officially dead. The middle class may soon be restored.
The market reaction was not euphoric, YET, but initially one of fear. The market dropped to 7907 on the theoretical Dow, in constant downside trading. Traders were only able to buy into the put recommended if buying above prior day close, but some reported doing so after following futures and selling for 70% profits. Others, that follow my buy no higher than prior day close, simply missed the put opportunity. We'll have our first stop loss on our open February call today.
We think the market will lead the economy, as it always does, and that there may be euphoria and relief in short term rally's, and bottom testing that occurs again. There is no magic pill.
Study our Dow projections carefully, as we adjust to show the bottom test coming first. We expected a top run first, another bottom test, and the over-extension count to the put continues, breaking all historical patterns for # of down days.
If you're confused....so is the world. Some day and markets are just not meant for trading.
Floydian Therapy:
People think a soul mate is your perfect fit, and that’s what everyone wants. But a true soul mate is a mirror, the person who shows you everything that’s holding you back, the person who brings you to your own attention so you can change your life. A true soul mate is probably the most important person you’ll ever meet, because they tear down your walls and smack you awake. Soul mates come into your life just to reveal another layer of yourself to YOU, and then they leave. This is my goal in Floydian Therapy. It can be around trading, or just around YOU.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
The US Government is Closed for Inaguration Day
This is my favorite. The U.S. government is closed for Inauguration Day. What could we pay them to close more often? :)
A stock market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation, and whim. We are seeing much of this right now, with nothing but bad news coming out, unemployment hitting 15% in real numbers. President Obama will nationalize a NEW DEAL, and our country will take a year or two to shift out of disarray.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner for Economics, writes an article all should read, advising the President on what should be done:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/25456948/what_obama_must_do
This article perfectly sums how Floyd sees our economic conditions, and what must be done.
We have new Dow projections again, noting a count of 4 to put, now declining. 8 of our last 9 signals have been profitable, to average profits of 35%. We hold an open call that may be our first loser, and recommend it be sold no later than Wednesday of this week. I've moved out the stop loss on this position because of market conditions, and the Inauguration.
From Mike Gibbons at Breakout Watch, a concurring opinion:
"Our market model for small cap stocks turned down again this week and it looked as if we were heading for a test of last November's low. However, the market rallied on Thursday and Friday following release of the second $350 billion of TARP funds and further details on the $850 billion Obama stimulus package. Bailout funds for Bank of America, Citibank and Chrysler financials also helped to turn the tide.
Under 'normal' circumstances, we would consider Thursday's market action, when it recovered from a steep loss to close higher, day one of a new rally and would be looking for a follow-through day as early as next Tuesday to confirm the rally. As it happens, next Tuesday is also Inauguration Day, so we may well get an apparent follow-through day that will fuel the rally for a while longer. This would therefore seem to be a short term buying opportunity but we expect it will be another bear-market rally with another sell-off to follow, so take your profits early!"
A stock market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation, and whim. We are seeing much of this right now, with nothing but bad news coming out, unemployment hitting 15% in real numbers. President Obama will nationalize a NEW DEAL, and our country will take a year or two to shift out of disarray.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner for Economics, writes an article all should read, advising the President on what should be done:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/25456948/what_obama_must_do
This article perfectly sums how Floyd sees our economic conditions, and what must be done.
We have new Dow projections again, noting a count of 4 to put, now declining. 8 of our last 9 signals have been profitable, to average profits of 35%. We hold an open call that may be our first loser, and recommend it be sold no later than Wednesday of this week. I've moved out the stop loss on this position because of market conditions, and the Inauguration.
From Mike Gibbons at Breakout Watch, a concurring opinion:
"Our market model for small cap stocks turned down again this week and it looked as if we were heading for a test of last November's low. However, the market rallied on Thursday and Friday following release of the second $350 billion of TARP funds and further details on the $850 billion Obama stimulus package. Bailout funds for Bank of America, Citibank and Chrysler financials also helped to turn the tide.
Under 'normal' circumstances, we would consider Thursday's market action, when it recovered from a steep loss to close higher, day one of a new rally and would be looking for a follow-through day as early as next Tuesday to confirm the rally. As it happens, next Tuesday is also Inauguration Day, so we may well get an apparent follow-through day that will fuel the rally for a while longer. This would therefore seem to be a short term buying opportunity but we expect it will be another bear-market rally with another sell-off to follow, so take your profits early!"
Friday, January 16, 2009
Learning to Trade is a Professional Skill
Well, I missed one. I recommended and bought calls too early and did not anticipate the downside to under 8000. It's part of why one must project Dows by the hour at this point. Citi's bad news, and Apple's CEO's health issues, led more decline. Fear permeates our lives. I still see upside. Guess I was just early.
Last evening trader MP wrote me a bit surprised on my dialogue in the alert about having 35% to 40% returns. He was surprised that the returns were "low." His initial goal was to take $30k, double it, and then double the 60K.
Several things are wrong with this thinking:
1. It takes much training and practice paper trading first to learn to trade. It is very hard for any trader to have 100% returns, as the risk/reward ratio is much much higher holding for higher profits.
2. There is no such thing as a free lunch. 100% returns increase the risk to trade, and require total control of emotions, not getting out too early, etc.
3. The way to make money is to save money. When one trades successfully, it's prudent to take 15% of the profits and invest it outside of the option market, to control your risk.
4. The amount of money that can be made is directly proportionate to the amount of money in a trading account. Traders with smaller "banks" have greater risk emotionally, as fear can set in on losses, which will occur.
If I could teach one thing to all traders that subscribe to my services it would be this: Learning to Trade is a professional skill. It is much like becoming a surgeon. It takes study, education and practice.
__________________
January expiration the Dow was down 9 of the last 10 years, all with big losses.
The 14 trillion U.S. economy still accounts for 25% of global economic output, despite massive growth in China and India in recent years, so the underlying strength or weakness of the American economy in 2009 will play a key role in determining the growth of the world economy, as well as the critical value of the dollar.
If anything is to fail us as Obama's New Deal comes into place it will be the vastly conservative Bushian Supreme Court. This happened to FDR with a full Democratic legislature and forced some changes to the New Deal.
But, we have never experienced an economy structured on credit, and then had credit disappear for two months. We don not know how far the $14 trillion economy will shrink. We believe the Obama administration is up to the task, and that the American people may finally be beginning to understand the doctrine of supply side economics is faulty. My favorite line is "conservatives" don't like Obama, yet Bush was so frightening in his liberal spend it approach we have nothing to work from.
Our primary goal as a nation must be to stop the Bushian led "red vs. blue" thinking, and think as a country, trying to help our own lot.
And Obama is actually right to side with fascist Cheney right now that "deficits do not matter", the famed Cheney line. Sadly, he's right for the moment as the only way out of what we have done is to increase our deficit, and act as a democracy, which we have not been doing this past 8 years. Note who has gotten rich, and that's proof enough.
A Floydian Comment: We as Americans are waking up to the fact that our houses are too big, our bellies are too big, our debt is too big, and we're going to have to go on a diet.
Please make note: the stock market is closed next Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
The next alert will be sent on Monday, for Tuesday trading.
Last evening trader MP wrote me a bit surprised on my dialogue in the alert about having 35% to 40% returns. He was surprised that the returns were "low." His initial goal was to take $30k, double it, and then double the 60K.
Several things are wrong with this thinking:
1. It takes much training and practice paper trading first to learn to trade. It is very hard for any trader to have 100% returns, as the risk/reward ratio is much much higher holding for higher profits.
2. There is no such thing as a free lunch. 100% returns increase the risk to trade, and require total control of emotions, not getting out too early, etc.
3. The way to make money is to save money. When one trades successfully, it's prudent to take 15% of the profits and invest it outside of the option market, to control your risk.
4. The amount of money that can be made is directly proportionate to the amount of money in a trading account. Traders with smaller "banks" have greater risk emotionally, as fear can set in on losses, which will occur.
If I could teach one thing to all traders that subscribe to my services it would be this: Learning to Trade is a professional skill. It is much like becoming a surgeon. It takes study, education and practice.
__________________
January expiration the Dow was down 9 of the last 10 years, all with big losses.
The 14 trillion U.S. economy still accounts for 25% of global economic output, despite massive growth in China and India in recent years, so the underlying strength or weakness of the American economy in 2009 will play a key role in determining the growth of the world economy, as well as the critical value of the dollar.
If anything is to fail us as Obama's New Deal comes into place it will be the vastly conservative Bushian Supreme Court. This happened to FDR with a full Democratic legislature and forced some changes to the New Deal.
But, we have never experienced an economy structured on credit, and then had credit disappear for two months. We don not know how far the $14 trillion economy will shrink. We believe the Obama administration is up to the task, and that the American people may finally be beginning to understand the doctrine of supply side economics is faulty. My favorite line is "conservatives" don't like Obama, yet Bush was so frightening in his liberal spend it approach we have nothing to work from.
Our primary goal as a nation must be to stop the Bushian led "red vs. blue" thinking, and think as a country, trying to help our own lot.
And Obama is actually right to side with fascist Cheney right now that "deficits do not matter", the famed Cheney line. Sadly, he's right for the moment as the only way out of what we have done is to increase our deficit, and act as a democracy, which we have not been doing this past 8 years. Note who has gotten rich, and that's proof enough.
A Floydian Comment: We as Americans are waking up to the fact that our houses are too big, our bellies are too big, our debt is too big, and we're going to have to go on a diet.
Please make note: the stock market is closed next Monday for Martin Luther King Day.
The next alert will be sent on Monday, for Tuesday trading.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
We're Seeing Fear and Short Selling
An interesting comment from a subscriber yesterday that we've been changing our Dow projections recently more often, showing we're guessing the market.
Darn right. I'm following charts to see bottoms, and have seen the market hold at 8300 area several times. I also see the market as far overextended for no real new bad news that has not already been known to be true.
My projections are changing as the moving average changes, and because I see true confusion and hesitation at different times of each day.
As a good example, Trader BW wrote me at end of day:
"This is all from Citi? I've gotta believe the retail number has already been accounted for?"
In my mind he was right. The fall off, and our constantly changing projections, bases on news events like Citi's split up that permeate fear or greed in the market
"History is a collection of agreed upon lies"-Voltaire
The amount of downturn, and length of days, shows a market that is struggling at support lines, and "trying" to hold." Yesterday marked a historical low day for the market, but in a vastly overextended downside.
No matter what the bad news, which never ends, markets cycle and reversals (up and down) are what keeps the market healthy. Obama is speeding to action philosophically, and the mood of the general public I believe much better than 4 months ago, despite everyone wanting to know where the "money went", and why there seemed no controls anywhere. We've now read of suicides, fraud with huge companies in India, and a general collapse of many companies, because of "false facts" and "false financials". Worldwide greed exposed, supply side economics in shambles.
I think optimism and a "centrist" thinking is exactly the euphoric spark we'll need.
I may have been too early on the Feb460C, and it may be our first loss, or tight tight profit, in several weeks. We'll hold until Friday. And we'll watch for a new call entry at the same time, while we show OTM puts as tight trades.
Trader Ben asked me yesterday morning:
"Floyd, the futures are down sharply this AM. Should we add to our call at the end of the day? About the long term. If there is a bounce in this bear market the earnings for 09 will probably be non existent, how is the market going to go to 10,000? This mess can not possibly be over in 09 it has taken 15 years to get to this point. Financials are not coming back for quite a while, and I don’t think we have reached bottom yet. People are scared, my self included, and consumer spending is dropping rapidly. I forsee any bounce as a short bear market rally. Bad news is causing the market to go down whereas it was rallying in the face of bad news. Thanks, Ben"
Here was my response to him:
"I believe it will do so, within 6 to 8 months, a 38.1 Fibonacci retracement.
If you have made two buys to the call, you would hold until Friday, unless I move the stop loss out. What you saw in early January was "false optimism", and you're seeing FEAR and short selling.
I believe we will soon bottom."
Effectively we are within a 1000 point trading range in the market after bottoming at 7700 several times. Doomsayers say it will happen again, and have facts behind them. Other chartists see a strong bottom testing at 8350 to 8200, the range we saw as the bottom. Floyd sees upside short term around the inauguration. And perhaps fear again after this, and more bottom testing. But, within 09 I continue to see a 38.1 Fib retracement from our lowest lows, and a general "catching" of what has occurred. This doesn't mean it will get better quickly, just that we have the opportunity now to create economic policy.
The February 320P, bought Tuesday, hit 4.60 for a doubling in price by 11 a.m. on Wednesday.
A humorous video for you to watch -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIfH0vY2ANA
Darn right. I'm following charts to see bottoms, and have seen the market hold at 8300 area several times. I also see the market as far overextended for no real new bad news that has not already been known to be true.
My projections are changing as the moving average changes, and because I see true confusion and hesitation at different times of each day.
As a good example, Trader BW wrote me at end of day:
"This is all from Citi? I've gotta believe the retail number has already been accounted for?"
In my mind he was right. The fall off, and our constantly changing projections, bases on news events like Citi's split up that permeate fear or greed in the market
"History is a collection of agreed upon lies"-Voltaire
The amount of downturn, and length of days, shows a market that is struggling at support lines, and "trying" to hold." Yesterday marked a historical low day for the market, but in a vastly overextended downside.
No matter what the bad news, which never ends, markets cycle and reversals (up and down) are what keeps the market healthy. Obama is speeding to action philosophically, and the mood of the general public I believe much better than 4 months ago, despite everyone wanting to know where the "money went", and why there seemed no controls anywhere. We've now read of suicides, fraud with huge companies in India, and a general collapse of many companies, because of "false facts" and "false financials". Worldwide greed exposed, supply side economics in shambles.
I think optimism and a "centrist" thinking is exactly the euphoric spark we'll need.
I may have been too early on the Feb460C, and it may be our first loss, or tight tight profit, in several weeks. We'll hold until Friday. And we'll watch for a new call entry at the same time, while we show OTM puts as tight trades.
Trader Ben asked me yesterday morning:
"Floyd, the futures are down sharply this AM. Should we add to our call at the end of the day? About the long term. If there is a bounce in this bear market the earnings for 09 will probably be non existent, how is the market going to go to 10,000? This mess can not possibly be over in 09 it has taken 15 years to get to this point. Financials are not coming back for quite a while, and I don’t think we have reached bottom yet. People are scared, my self included, and consumer spending is dropping rapidly. I forsee any bounce as a short bear market rally. Bad news is causing the market to go down whereas it was rallying in the face of bad news. Thanks, Ben"
Here was my response to him:
"I believe it will do so, within 6 to 8 months, a 38.1 Fibonacci retracement.
If you have made two buys to the call, you would hold until Friday, unless I move the stop loss out. What you saw in early January was "false optimism", and you're seeing FEAR and short selling.
I believe we will soon bottom."
Effectively we are within a 1000 point trading range in the market after bottoming at 7700 several times. Doomsayers say it will happen again, and have facts behind them. Other chartists see a strong bottom testing at 8350 to 8200, the range we saw as the bottom. Floyd sees upside short term around the inauguration. And perhaps fear again after this, and more bottom testing. But, within 09 I continue to see a 38.1 Fib retracement from our lowest lows, and a general "catching" of what has occurred. This doesn't mean it will get better quickly, just that we have the opportunity now to create economic policy.
The February 320P, bought Tuesday, hit 4.60 for a doubling in price by 11 a.m. on Wednesday.
A humorous video for you to watch -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIfH0vY2ANA
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Astute Traders are Considering...
I can candidly tell you that yesterday's flat lining is an indicator. But of what, I'm not sure. Many chartists believe more downside could occur, and others see us bottoming, and just waiting for a 100 point upswing confirmation day to another short bull rally. The market moved very little for many hours, tested the same bottoms several times, and traders just "watched."
Trading on 1/13:
-4.8% decline the week prior
-the recent rebound was very powerful, and some chartists and optimists believe upside will occur. Other chartists point out the low volume on the rebound, and the higher volume on the recent sell off.
-We are adjusting our Dow projections regularly now, as with a count of 10 to the put yesterday we're seeing a very overextended market.
-Ordinarily a 20% gain from a low would be a signal that a bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun. Thus far, we've moved up, and continually hesitated, taking the market back, but to higher lows.
The February 320P actually declined in value on a 96 point drop by 2.30 p.m. The February 460C could have sold for tight .50 per contract profits several times yesterday.
The U.S. automakers, idiots to the core, must survive simply to allow the economy to expand psychologically. The failure of our auto industry can be discussed ad nauseum, but the collapse is an easy answer.
Allowing bankruptcy only hurts many other sectors of the economy. This time through the boys in the suits at the "small three" must have oversight, however, as we've seen their lack of oversight in detail. Sure the UAW has been stupid, but the lineworkers are not what caused the Hummer to be the vehicle of choice for years, or cars that simply didn't perform when compared to others. The UAW had no part of the stupid decision making that occurred, but participated in the GREED.
Floyd believes that interest rates will not long term hold at 0%, as our mounting debt will have to be financed in some way. Unlike supply side economics in which there is no regulation, free enterprise is controlled by the rich, and deficits don't matter, Obama will lead a growing deficit to jump start our economy evenly. We continue to believe we'll see a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows in the market sometime in 09, and that this will occur before the economy itself improves, as the market leads the economy.
Volatility in the market may also diminish, and the heyday we've seen in massive moves may slow. Either way we believe the OEX as an investment vehicle will continue to gain us 20% to 30% profits, conservatively, with 3 to 4 day holds, and a win ratio of 78 to 81%. Our more established subscribers have advised me that their average returns in 08 were 34-38%, counting all wins and losses. Established traders follow Floydian rules to a T, and do not interpret the market or listen to talking heads, instead following our Dow projections and watching the economic calendars.
Astute traders that are considering more investment in trading during a down economic time should consider our Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring programs. These are more costly, but the pay back can be huge, as the attention is given to how to trade, the psychology of the trade, and YOU as the vehicle. www.oexoptions.com website should show you details on both services, and references are always available.
______
Floydian Therapy:
The search for God is a reversal of the normal, mundane worldly order. In the search for God, you revert from what attracts you and swim towards which is difficult. You abandon your comforting and familiar habits with the mer hope that something will be offered to you in return for what you’ve been given.
From trader MP:
Hey Floyd...
First of all I just want to tell you that I haven't made a cent through your service thus far but I can feel and see myself becoming a better person. Thanks for all of your insight. My life is enhanced each day as I continue in my faith but shrink from my black and white thinking. I know the money will be there some day. I'm not worried about that. What I am excited about is that I can actually "see" how I am changing.!!
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Trading on 1/13:
-4.8% decline the week prior
-the recent rebound was very powerful, and some chartists and optimists believe upside will occur. Other chartists point out the low volume on the rebound, and the higher volume on the recent sell off.
-We are adjusting our Dow projections regularly now, as with a count of 10 to the put yesterday we're seeing a very overextended market.
-Ordinarily a 20% gain from a low would be a signal that a bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun. Thus far, we've moved up, and continually hesitated, taking the market back, but to higher lows.
The February 320P actually declined in value on a 96 point drop by 2.30 p.m. The February 460C could have sold for tight .50 per contract profits several times yesterday.
The U.S. automakers, idiots to the core, must survive simply to allow the economy to expand psychologically. The failure of our auto industry can be discussed ad nauseum, but the collapse is an easy answer.
Allowing bankruptcy only hurts many other sectors of the economy. This time through the boys in the suits at the "small three" must have oversight, however, as we've seen their lack of oversight in detail. Sure the UAW has been stupid, but the lineworkers are not what caused the Hummer to be the vehicle of choice for years, or cars that simply didn't perform when compared to others. The UAW had no part of the stupid decision making that occurred, but participated in the GREED.
Floyd believes that interest rates will not long term hold at 0%, as our mounting debt will have to be financed in some way. Unlike supply side economics in which there is no regulation, free enterprise is controlled by the rich, and deficits don't matter, Obama will lead a growing deficit to jump start our economy evenly. We continue to believe we'll see a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows in the market sometime in 09, and that this will occur before the economy itself improves, as the market leads the economy.
Volatility in the market may also diminish, and the heyday we've seen in massive moves may slow. Either way we believe the OEX as an investment vehicle will continue to gain us 20% to 30% profits, conservatively, with 3 to 4 day holds, and a win ratio of 78 to 81%. Our more established subscribers have advised me that their average returns in 08 were 34-38%, counting all wins and losses. Established traders follow Floydian rules to a T, and do not interpret the market or listen to talking heads, instead following our Dow projections and watching the economic calendars.
Astute traders that are considering more investment in trading during a down economic time should consider our Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring programs. These are more costly, but the pay back can be huge, as the attention is given to how to trade, the psychology of the trade, and YOU as the vehicle. www.oexoptions.com website should show you details on both services, and references are always available.
______
Floydian Therapy:
The search for God is a reversal of the normal, mundane worldly order. In the search for God, you revert from what attracts you and swim towards which is difficult. You abandon your comforting and familiar habits with the mer hope that something will be offered to you in return for what you’ve been given.
From trader MP:
Hey Floyd...
First of all I just want to tell you that I haven't made a cent through your service thus far but I can feel and see myself becoming a better person. Thanks for all of your insight. My life is enhanced each day as I continue in my faith but shrink from my black and white thinking. I know the money will be there some day. I'm not worried about that. What I am excited about is that I can actually "see" how I am changing.!!
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Astute Traders are cc
I can candidly tell you that yesterday's flat lining is an indicator. But of what, I'm not sure. Many chartists believe more downside could occur, and others see us bottoming, and just waiting for a 100 point upswing confirmation day to another short bull rally. The market moved very little for many hours, tested the same bottoms several times, and traders just "watched."
Trading on 1/13:
-4.8% decline the week prior
-the recent rebound was very powerful, and some chartists and optimists believe upside will occur. Other chartists point out the low volume on the rebound, and the higher volume on the recent sell off.
-We are adjusting our Dow projections regularly now, as with a count of 10 to the put yesterday we're seeing a very overextended market.
-Ordinarily a 20% gain from a low would be a signal that a bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun. Thus far, we've moved up, and continually hesitated, taking the market back, but to higher lows.
The February 320P actually declined in value on a 96 point drop by 2.30 p.m. The February 460C could have sold for tight .50 per contract profits several times yesterday.
The U.S. automakers, idiots to the core, must survive simply to allow the economy to expand psychologically. The failure of our auto industry can be discussed ad nauseum, but the collapse is an easy answer.
Allowing bankruptcy only hurts many other sectors of the economy. This time through the boys in the suits at the "small three" must have oversight, however, as we've seen their lack of oversight in detail. Sure the UAW has been stupid, but the lineworkers are not what caused the Hummer to be the vehicle of choice for years, or cars that simply didn't perform when compared to others. The UAW had no part of the stupid decision making that occurred, but participated in the GREED.
Floyd believes that interest rates will not long term hold at 0%, as our mounting debt will have to be financed in some way. Unlike supply side economics in which there is no regulation, free enterprise is controlled by the rich, and deficits don't matter, Obama will lead a growing deficit to jump start our economy evenly. We continue to believe we'll see a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows in the market sometime in 09, and that this will occur before the economy itself improves, as the market leads the economy.
Volatility in the market may also diminish, and the heyday we've seen in massive moves may slow. Either way we believe the OEX as an investment vehicle will continue to gain us 20% to 30% profits, conservatively, with 3 to 4 day holds, and a win ratio of 78 to 81%. Our more established subscribers have advised me that their average returns in 08 were 34-38%, counting all wins and losses. Established traders follow Floydian rules to a T, and do not interpret the market or listen to talking heads, instead following our Dow projections and watching the economic calendars.
Astute traders that are considering more investment in trading during a down economic time should consider our Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring programs. These are more costly, but the pay back can be huge, as the attention is given to how to trade, the psychology of the trade, and YOU as the vehicle. www.oexoptions.com website should show you details on both services, and references are always available.
______
Floydian Therapy:
The search for God is a reversal of the normal, mundane worldly order. In the search for God, you revert from what attracts you and swim towards which is difficult. You abandon your comforting and familiar habits with the mer hope that something will be offered to you in return for what you’ve been given.
From trader MP:
Hey Floyd...
First of all I just want to tell you that I haven't made a cent through your service thus far but I can feel and see myself becoming a better person. Thanks for all of your insight. My life is enhanced each day as I continue in my faith but shrink from my black and white thinking. I know the money will be there some day. I'm not worried about that. What I am excited about is that I can actually "see" how I am changing.!!
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Trading on 1/13:
-4.8% decline the week prior
-the recent rebound was very powerful, and some chartists and optimists believe upside will occur. Other chartists point out the low volume on the rebound, and the higher volume on the recent sell off.
-We are adjusting our Dow projections regularly now, as with a count of 10 to the put yesterday we're seeing a very overextended market.
-Ordinarily a 20% gain from a low would be a signal that a bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun. Thus far, we've moved up, and continually hesitated, taking the market back, but to higher lows.
The February 320P actually declined in value on a 96 point drop by 2.30 p.m. The February 460C could have sold for tight .50 per contract profits several times yesterday.
The U.S. automakers, idiots to the core, must survive simply to allow the economy to expand psychologically. The failure of our auto industry can be discussed ad nauseum, but the collapse is an easy answer.
Allowing bankruptcy only hurts many other sectors of the economy. This time through the boys in the suits at the "small three" must have oversight, however, as we've seen their lack of oversight in detail. Sure the UAW has been stupid, but the lineworkers are not what caused the Hummer to be the vehicle of choice for years, or cars that simply didn't perform when compared to others. The UAW had no part of the stupid decision making that occurred, but participated in the GREED.
Floyd believes that interest rates will not long term hold at 0%, as our mounting debt will have to be financed in some way. Unlike supply side economics in which there is no regulation, free enterprise is controlled by the rich, and deficits don't matter, Obama will lead a growing deficit to jump start our economy evenly. We continue to believe we'll see a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows in the market sometime in 09, and that this will occur before the economy itself improves, as the market leads the economy.
Volatility in the market may also diminish, and the heyday we've seen in massive moves may slow. Either way we believe the OEX as an investment vehicle will continue to gain us 20% to 30% profits, conservatively, with 3 to 4 day holds, and a win ratio of 78 to 81%. Our more established subscribers have advised me that their average returns in 08 were 34-38%, counting all wins and losses. Established traders follow Floydian rules to a T, and do not interpret the market or listen to talking heads, instead following our Dow projections and watching the economic calendars.
Astute traders that are considering more investment in trading during a down economic time should consider our Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring programs. These are more costly, but the pay back can be huge, as the attention is given to how to trade, the psychology of the trade, and YOU as the vehicle. www.oexoptions.com website should show you details on both services, and references are always available.
______
Floydian Therapy:
The search for God is a reversal of the normal, mundane worldly order. In the search for God, you revert from what attracts you and swim towards which is difficult. You abandon your comforting and familiar habits with the mer hope that something will be offered to you in return for what you’ve been given.
From trader MP:
Hey Floyd...
First of all I just want to tell you that I haven't made a cent through your service thus far but I can feel and see myself becoming a better person. Thanks for all of your insight. My life is enhanced each day as I continue in my faith but shrink from my black and white thinking. I know the money will be there some day. I'm not worried about that. What I am excited about is that I can actually "see" how I am changing.!!
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
We Are Profitiable Because We Trade Short-Term
Today or tomorrow historically may show a market low. Yesterday, historically, would have showed a market move up. Thusly the market low may have occurred yesterday, as the market moved to 8380 as a low, near where we think the bottom is. Our OTM puts were profitable to .70, but only for traders willing to pay above prior day close.
We have two buys in the call, and will hold.
For any of you that watched Emperor Bush in his final news conference, or that did not watch it, take the time to review this. Everything that is wrong was outlined in this man's arrogance.
There is nothing but bad news at this juncture, and the world now lives in fear. This week will have many reduced earnings from corporations, and may continue downslide, although we see a shifting market around the inauguration.
We are profitable at OEX Options because we trade only the short term, not the longer term, and because we do not believe most facts. What Floyd has called "false facts" for years is now a sad and truthful reality.
President Obama will have a short window of time to create faith and order. With unemployment at all time highs, and only worsening, each sector can be hurt. And if oil falls further, it is bad news, not good.
Amidst this all Floyd continues to believe we will have two way swings, with upside remaining a short term potential.
---------------------------------
Floydian Therapy:
If we are not happy, we must know why. Most people spend their lives doing what they do not want, and wonder why they are unhappy. The key psychological question I ask of clients is this: What do you want?
Most answer with "things" or possessions, a simplistic answer that breeds the "I want what I want when I want it" thinking, and leads to possessions, which really make no one happy.
A man came to me years ago and I asked this question. He was a 40 year highly successful engineer in industrial plastics, married, no kids. His wife worked. After months of therapy my "what do you want" question led to a "real answer"...I want to be a guy that sells lawn chairs and stuff on a beach, and to work on the beach all day. "I want to be a beachcomber."
As you can imagine this was radical, hard on his thinking, and most likely something he would never do.
Thusly, I asked two questions:
1. Why can you not do what you want?
2. Why is this what you want?
Why do you do things that you do not want to do?
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
We have two buys in the call, and will hold.
For any of you that watched Emperor Bush in his final news conference, or that did not watch it, take the time to review this. Everything that is wrong was outlined in this man's arrogance.
There is nothing but bad news at this juncture, and the world now lives in fear. This week will have many reduced earnings from corporations, and may continue downslide, although we see a shifting market around the inauguration.
We are profitable at OEX Options because we trade only the short term, not the longer term, and because we do not believe most facts. What Floyd has called "false facts" for years is now a sad and truthful reality.
President Obama will have a short window of time to create faith and order. With unemployment at all time highs, and only worsening, each sector can be hurt. And if oil falls further, it is bad news, not good.
Amidst this all Floyd continues to believe we will have two way swings, with upside remaining a short term potential.
---------------------------------
Floydian Therapy:
If we are not happy, we must know why. Most people spend their lives doing what they do not want, and wonder why they are unhappy. The key psychological question I ask of clients is this: What do you want?
Most answer with "things" or possessions, a simplistic answer that breeds the "I want what I want when I want it" thinking, and leads to possessions, which really make no one happy.
A man came to me years ago and I asked this question. He was a 40 year highly successful engineer in industrial plastics, married, no kids. His wife worked. After months of therapy my "what do you want" question led to a "real answer"...I want to be a guy that sells lawn chairs and stuff on a beach, and to work on the beach all day. "I want to be a beachcomber."
As you can imagine this was radical, hard on his thinking, and most likely something he would never do.
Thusly, I asked two questions:
1. Why can you not do what you want?
2. Why is this what you want?
Why do you do things that you do not want to do?
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, January 12, 2009
Liberal is Not a Bad Word
The first trading day of January expiration week the Dow was up 5 of the last 6 years. We open the week was solid profits in our trading last week, and a February call bought on Friday. There may be more downside, but we believe this will be limited, and that President Obama has the capability to lift the market mood as he transitions in, and Emperor Bush is dethroned.
As President Obama comes into office the conservatives have been having a hey day telling us that "New Deal" methodology is wrong. It's hard for me to even comment personally, so I'll share a column:
Did you hear FDR prolonged the Great Depression?
Conservatives' newest talking point -- designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package -- is breathtaking.
By David Sirota
So if you're like me, you probably understand why I was momentarily tongue-tied last week after running face-first into conservatives' newest (and most ridiculous) talking point: the one designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package.
During a Christmas Eve appearance on Fox News, I pointed out that most mainstream economists believe the government must boost the economy with deficit spending. That's when conservative pundit Monica Crowley said we should instead limit such spending because President Franklin Roosevelt's "massive government intervention actually prolonged the Great Depression." Fox News anchor Gregg Jarrett eagerly concurred, saying "historians pretty much agree on that."
Of course, I had recently heard snippets of this silly argument; right-wing pundits are repeating it everywhere these days. But I had never heard it articulated in such preposterous terms, so my initial reaction was paralysis, the mouth-agape, deer-in-the-headlights kind. Only after collecting myself did I say that such assertions about the New Deal were absurd. But then I was laughed at, as if it was hilarious to say that the New Deal did anything but exacerbate the Depression.
Afterward, suffering pangs of self-doubt, I wondered whether I and most of the country were the crazy ones. Sure, the vast majority of Americans think the New Deal worked well. But are conservatives right? Did the New Deal's "massive government intervention prolong the Great Depression?"
Ummm ... no.
On deeper examination, I discovered that the right bases its New Deal revisionism on the short-lived recession in a year straddling 1937 and 1938. But that was four years into Roosevelt's term -- four years marked by spectacular economic growth. Additionally, the fleeting decline happened not because of the New Deal's spending programs, but because Roosevelt momentarily listened to conservatives and backed off them. As Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman notes, in 1937-38, FDR "was persuaded to balance the budget" and "cut spending and the economy went back down again."
To be sure, you can credibly argue that the New Deal had its share of problems. But overall, the numbers prove it helped -- rather than hurt -- the macroeconomy. "Excepting 1937-1938, unemployment fell each year of Roosevelt's first two terms [while] the U.S. economy grew at average annual growth rates of 9 percent to 10 percent," writes University of California historian Eric Rauchway.
What about the New Deal's most "massive government intervention" -- its financial regulations? Did they prolong the Great Depression in ways the official data didn't detect?
Nope.
According to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, "Only with the New Deal's rehabilitation of the financial system in 1933-35 did the economy begin its slow emergence from the Great Depression." In fact, even famed conservative economist Milton Friedman admitted that the New Deal's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was "the structural change most conducive to monetary stability since ... the Civil War."
OK -- if the verifiable evidence proves the New Deal did not prolong the Depression, what about historians -- do they "pretty much agree" on the opposite?
Again, no.
As Newsweek's Daniel Gross reports, "One would be very hard-pressed to find a serious professional historian who believes that the New Deal prolonged the Depression."
But that's the critical point I somehow forgot last week, the truism we must all remember in 2009: As conservatives try to obstruct a new New Deal, they're not making any arguments that are remotely serious.
Liberal is not a bad word. Don't be caught by Rush Limbaugh thinking. He's a marketing machine for fascism.
As President Obama comes into office the conservatives have been having a hey day telling us that "New Deal" methodology is wrong. It's hard for me to even comment personally, so I'll share a column:
Did you hear FDR prolonged the Great Depression?
Conservatives' newest talking point -- designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package -- is breathtaking.
By David Sirota
So if you're like me, you probably understand why I was momentarily tongue-tied last week after running face-first into conservatives' newest (and most ridiculous) talking point: the one designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package.
During a Christmas Eve appearance on Fox News, I pointed out that most mainstream economists believe the government must boost the economy with deficit spending. That's when conservative pundit Monica Crowley said we should instead limit such spending because President Franklin Roosevelt's "massive government intervention actually prolonged the Great Depression." Fox News anchor Gregg Jarrett eagerly concurred, saying "historians pretty much agree on that."
Of course, I had recently heard snippets of this silly argument; right-wing pundits are repeating it everywhere these days. But I had never heard it articulated in such preposterous terms, so my initial reaction was paralysis, the mouth-agape, deer-in-the-headlights kind. Only after collecting myself did I say that such assertions about the New Deal were absurd. But then I was laughed at, as if it was hilarious to say that the New Deal did anything but exacerbate the Depression.
Afterward, suffering pangs of self-doubt, I wondered whether I and most of the country were the crazy ones. Sure, the vast majority of Americans think the New Deal worked well. But are conservatives right? Did the New Deal's "massive government intervention prolong the Great Depression?"
Ummm ... no.
On deeper examination, I discovered that the right bases its New Deal revisionism on the short-lived recession in a year straddling 1937 and 1938. But that was four years into Roosevelt's term -- four years marked by spectacular economic growth. Additionally, the fleeting decline happened not because of the New Deal's spending programs, but because Roosevelt momentarily listened to conservatives and backed off them. As Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman notes, in 1937-38, FDR "was persuaded to balance the budget" and "cut spending and the economy went back down again."
To be sure, you can credibly argue that the New Deal had its share of problems. But overall, the numbers prove it helped -- rather than hurt -- the macroeconomy. "Excepting 1937-1938, unemployment fell each year of Roosevelt's first two terms [while] the U.S. economy grew at average annual growth rates of 9 percent to 10 percent," writes University of California historian Eric Rauchway.
What about the New Deal's most "massive government intervention" -- its financial regulations? Did they prolong the Great Depression in ways the official data didn't detect?
Nope.
According to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, "Only with the New Deal's rehabilitation of the financial system in 1933-35 did the economy begin its slow emergence from the Great Depression." In fact, even famed conservative economist Milton Friedman admitted that the New Deal's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was "the structural change most conducive to monetary stability since ... the Civil War."
OK -- if the verifiable evidence proves the New Deal did not prolong the Depression, what about historians -- do they "pretty much agree" on the opposite?
Again, no.
As Newsweek's Daniel Gross reports, "One would be very hard-pressed to find a serious professional historian who believes that the New Deal prolonged the Depression."
But that's the critical point I somehow forgot last week, the truism we must all remember in 2009: As conservatives try to obstruct a new New Deal, they're not making any arguments that are remotely serious.
Liberal is not a bad word. Don't be caught by Rush Limbaugh thinking. He's a marketing machine for fascism.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Some Have Some Hard Lessons to Learn
We are really right now not a red or blue America, but a "scared shitless" America. Despite the recent market euphoria, nothing is really better economically, and our hopes and dreams are on what President Obama can do. Hope can change this, as it is all emotion that has created each of our reactions.
Fear shaped the Bush Doctrine, the war on terror, and the unprecedented restrictions on civil liberties. It made us believe "they are out to get us, we must protect ourselves", and few thought the massive housing bubble and strong war economy could be caused by FEAR, even though the true unemployment kept rising each month, and the only real jobs were in the housing sector, now long gone.
The shift to hope that the American people did by electing Obama is good news. We now must continue to demonstrate the resistance to fear we had by electing him. This was the core decision being made by the American public during this election.
We deserved every part of this crash, and we equally deserve the right to intelligently pull ourselves out of it, this time benefiting the many, and not the few. My favorite is the average dippity do American that actually believes they were NOT part of the problem,as they borrowed from their inflated home equity values, and bought big SUV's to carry their bottled water, or the idiots that took out 0% interest loans.
I feel less sorry for the Madoff 100% investors, the wealthy that put it all in one basket, and didn't watch the basket. And even less sorry for those that voted for Bush twice. These are the folks that do not "get it", and have had to learn some hard lessons, many of whom still have not.
-------------------
Yesterday the market opened in freefall, as more facts come out on our economic conditions. A German billionaire committed suicide from his over leveraging and bad market moves. Unemployment figures look ugly.
Imagine if Bush's plan for a "free enterprise" social security had gone through. Right now President Obama is strapped with a huge 401K investing public that have seen their retirement savings fall by 35 to 45%
However, the free-fall held at a theoretical Dow volume of 8611, and held. We will adjust our Dow projections today with what could be another bottom on bad unemployment numbers today, but this bad news may also have already been built into the market.
-------------------------------------------------------
Prayer is the act of talking to God, while meditation is the act of listening. If you would like more information in my newest service, Floydian Therapy, I would be honored to speak with you personally.
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
When working to coach a change in environmental thinking, I begin with what I call “how we see ourselves.” I first teach to go “outside of who you are” “or what you do” “and simply observe from the outside”.
The more you can objectively just watch a situation (the proverbial cat on the mantle watching), the more you can begin to understand what you are really doing.
❑ To have a new belief, focus on it constantly and in every way you can
❑ As long as you continue to hold the same beliefs you’ll continue to get the same results
❑ Everything is TRUE to the person that believes it. Evidence will be created by all and anyone to prove their point, and all evidence is irrelevant. Only other people’s beliefs can be false. Your beliefs will always turn out to be true. Ask: do my beliefs create good life, and desired results?
❑ You will attract, and be attracted to, people and situations that confirm the truth of what you believe
❑ You will find ways to distort what you perceive so as to make a belief seem to be true, even if it isn’t
❑ You will act in such a way that people finally comply with what you believe by acting in a way that your belief is true. For example, if you believe you won’t be loved, that fear will cause you to act in such a way that eventually the other person or people will stop caring.
❑ Lots of negative emotional experiences allow us to focus on what we do not want. The emotional charge from such negative experiences pulls our focus to what we don’t want. You cannot ATTRACT by focusing on what you don’t want.
❑ What your goal should be is: Discover HOW you create your feelings, behaviors, what and whom you attract into your life, and what and who you are attracted to. Most people are concerned about WHY they are doing something. Why, is not a good question. How you’re creating whatever is happening in your life...for example, if you are anxious, HOW do you DO “anxious”? If you can’t make enough money, HOW do you do “not making money?”
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Fear shaped the Bush Doctrine, the war on terror, and the unprecedented restrictions on civil liberties. It made us believe "they are out to get us, we must protect ourselves", and few thought the massive housing bubble and strong war economy could be caused by FEAR, even though the true unemployment kept rising each month, and the only real jobs were in the housing sector, now long gone.
The shift to hope that the American people did by electing Obama is good news. We now must continue to demonstrate the resistance to fear we had by electing him. This was the core decision being made by the American public during this election.
We deserved every part of this crash, and we equally deserve the right to intelligently pull ourselves out of it, this time benefiting the many, and not the few. My favorite is the average dippity do American that actually believes they were NOT part of the problem,as they borrowed from their inflated home equity values, and bought big SUV's to carry their bottled water, or the idiots that took out 0% interest loans.
I feel less sorry for the Madoff 100% investors, the wealthy that put it all in one basket, and didn't watch the basket. And even less sorry for those that voted for Bush twice. These are the folks that do not "get it", and have had to learn some hard lessons, many of whom still have not.
-------------------
Yesterday the market opened in freefall, as more facts come out on our economic conditions. A German billionaire committed suicide from his over leveraging and bad market moves. Unemployment figures look ugly.
Imagine if Bush's plan for a "free enterprise" social security had gone through. Right now President Obama is strapped with a huge 401K investing public that have seen their retirement savings fall by 35 to 45%
However, the free-fall held at a theoretical Dow volume of 8611, and held. We will adjust our Dow projections today with what could be another bottom on bad unemployment numbers today, but this bad news may also have already been built into the market.
-------------------------------------------------------
Prayer is the act of talking to God, while meditation is the act of listening. If you would like more information in my newest service, Floydian Therapy, I would be honored to speak with you personally.
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
When working to coach a change in environmental thinking, I begin with what I call “how we see ourselves.” I first teach to go “outside of who you are” “or what you do” “and simply observe from the outside”.
The more you can objectively just watch a situation (the proverbial cat on the mantle watching), the more you can begin to understand what you are really doing.
❑ To have a new belief, focus on it constantly and in every way you can
❑ As long as you continue to hold the same beliefs you’ll continue to get the same results
❑ Everything is TRUE to the person that believes it. Evidence will be created by all and anyone to prove their point, and all evidence is irrelevant. Only other people’s beliefs can be false. Your beliefs will always turn out to be true. Ask: do my beliefs create good life, and desired results?
❑ You will attract, and be attracted to, people and situations that confirm the truth of what you believe
❑ You will find ways to distort what you perceive so as to make a belief seem to be true, even if it isn’t
❑ You will act in such a way that people finally comply with what you believe by acting in a way that your belief is true. For example, if you believe you won’t be loved, that fear will cause you to act in such a way that eventually the other person or people will stop caring.
❑ Lots of negative emotional experiences allow us to focus on what we do not want. The emotional charge from such negative experiences pulls our focus to what we don’t want. You cannot ATTRACT by focusing on what you don’t want.
❑ What your goal should be is: Discover HOW you create your feelings, behaviors, what and whom you attract into your life, and what and who you are attracted to. Most people are concerned about WHY they are doing something. Why, is not a good question. How you’re creating whatever is happening in your life...for example, if you are anxious, HOW do you DO “anxious”? If you can’t make enough money, HOW do you do “not making money?”
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Thursday, January 8, 2009
There is Absolutely Nothing Going Right, But Wait...
Whee! The market dropped to 8679 on the theoretical Dow, right near the bottom we think. This is the pre-inauguration sell off. Friday's unemployment numbers will show the massive lay offs, and a bit of truth about what unemployment has been becoming over the past 8 years. Most good employment numbers we've seen have been adjusted, and show the growth in the construction/housing industry, and lack of growth elsewhere. The false facts are coming to surface, in every way.
There is absolutely nothing going right. But wait, the inauguration will be "hope," most think, and a market upturn.
We will play a call on this, but not long term, and NOT yet in anticipation of "the world is saved" by President Obama. There is risk to our current trade, we may be early.
Now it's catching up everywhere. There is a potential of a bit more downside, but we believe the strength of the decline will lessen and we'll begin with February options, although high premium price/ration, today simply because of the risk to the market. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
The January 420 P, bought from 3.70 to 4.99, was profitable to 8.00 in yesterday's trading. There are no open signals.
Floyd, however, thinks it is, and follows the "law of attraction". We will see an upsurge to the market in 2009 to Fib channels. 38% from our lowest lows. I know I'm right.
There is absolutely nothing going right. But wait, the inauguration will be "hope," most think, and a market upturn.
We will play a call on this, but not long term, and NOT yet in anticipation of "the world is saved" by President Obama. There is risk to our current trade, we may be early.
Now it's catching up everywhere. There is a potential of a bit more downside, but we believe the strength of the decline will lessen and we'll begin with February options, although high premium price/ration, today simply because of the risk to the market. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
The January 420 P, bought from 3.70 to 4.99, was profitable to 8.00 in yesterday's trading. There are no open signals.
Floyd, however, thinks it is, and follows the "law of attraction". We will see an upsurge to the market in 2009 to Fib channels. 38% from our lowest lows. I know I'm right.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
We Are Very Good At Forgetting The Obvious
Today or tomorrow historically may show a market high. This may have been reached with the recent upturn. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
Today was a good roller coaster. Our trusty Jan420P went for .60 profits for day traders, and remains in our trading range by end of day, with second or third buyers prevalent.
"We have brought torture,
cluster bombs, depleted uranium,
innumerable acts of random murder,
misery, degradation and death
to the Iraqi people and
CALL IT 'BRINGING FREEDOM
and democracy to the Middle East.'"
- Harold Pinter (1930-2008)
Remember what Mr. Pinter said, so sadly true, as we watch the current Middle East quagmire unfold. This has cost us trillions, and our economic woes, self inflicted, are now our focus, Iraq almost forgotten.
We are very good at forgetting the obvious.
Years that end in 9 in the stock market usually mark highs and panics, especially if the preceding year that ended in 7 market a high and a panic. This occurred in 2007, so it's quite likely we'll more of the same in 2009. There is no doubt we could have a low again, but by the second quarter Floyd thinks a typical Fibonacci 38.2 retracement could occur.
This means....I'm bullish. I believe we will see the stock market recover slightly first, before the general economy, and that things will be rough, but that stocks could likely show rebound in 2009, around much volatility.
Remember the stock market moves in advance of the general market.
Floydian Therapy:
Everything begins with either someone who does something, or does nothing.
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of who we are.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Today was a good roller coaster. Our trusty Jan420P went for .60 profits for day traders, and remains in our trading range by end of day, with second or third buyers prevalent.
"We have brought torture,
cluster bombs, depleted uranium,
innumerable acts of random murder,
misery, degradation and death
to the Iraqi people and
CALL IT 'BRINGING FREEDOM
and democracy to the Middle East.'"
- Harold Pinter (1930-2008)
Remember what Mr. Pinter said, so sadly true, as we watch the current Middle East quagmire unfold. This has cost us trillions, and our economic woes, self inflicted, are now our focus, Iraq almost forgotten.
We are very good at forgetting the obvious.
Years that end in 9 in the stock market usually mark highs and panics, especially if the preceding year that ended in 7 market a high and a panic. This occurred in 2007, so it's quite likely we'll more of the same in 2009. There is no doubt we could have a low again, but by the second quarter Floyd thinks a typical Fibonacci 38.2 retracement could occur.
This means....I'm bullish. I believe we will see the stock market recover slightly first, before the general economy, and that things will be rough, but that stocks could likely show rebound in 2009, around much volatility.
Remember the stock market moves in advance of the general market.
Floydian Therapy:
Everything begins with either someone who does something, or does nothing.
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of who we are.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
And Here We Are
Yesterday's trading was clear evidence to us of an unsure market. Our open signal, the January 420P, was available for great daytrade profits, and hit highs of 5.70. Many traders wrote to compliment the smooth ability to trade for .50 profits, just as they did on the Jan470C, which was available under prior day close twice, and could have sold for .30 to .50 profits.
In markets as we are seeing it's always good to day trade when one can, and lock profits, as the struggle between down and upside will continue. We continue to see our Dow projections on target, with upswing potential, and downswing correction, prior to the inauguration, when most traders think we'll have a strong burst upside to the market on change.
_____________
There is a good argument against long term deflation in the U.S., and that's the price of Gold, which has held steady during the crash. As we see a sharp spike in Gold prices,which I believe will happen, we will see more concern about inflation, probably resulting from the FED's massive liquidity injections and Treasury bailout schemes. In our sister service, www.bluechipoptions.com, we work with Gold as a commodity in our stock recommendations. At OEX we're most concerned watching gold to see if inflation can create a large rally. We continue to believe we could have a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows.
________________
In 1993 there were only a few dozen antibacterial consumer products. Today there are more than 9000, with 2753 new ones introduced in 2007 alone. Never mind that the FDA concluded four years ago that antibacterial soap and lotion products and 98% ineffective compared to regular suds available and washing your hands.
We want relief. We want solutions. We buy what we are told will "save us" (Iraq, the TSA, antimicrobial products, Prozac, and now even mood enhancers like Abilify that are meant to work with your existing anti depressant, if that isn't enough.)
TV shows are now ready to stimulate our anxiety. CSI shows, et al are meant to stimulate our anxiety of "what could happen to us" in the name of ratings, and we want it. This is why when the zealots tell us family values blah blah blah they forget that as good as that sounds, it is WE as a populace that buy this FEAR.
And amidst that fear, we've led the last 8 years with the most unprecedented GREED seen since the great depression, where just a few,unregulated in their capitalistic plays, created falsehoods that we also all bought, to get more, our GREED.
And here we are.
It's now the second day that the institutional traders are back from holiday, and what the talking heads have been saying:
"With many professional money managers home for the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the stock market made its recent moves in very light volume. The return of institutional money next week will determine whether these gains stick.
"The real question is, is this going to last when traders come back from vacation?" said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at investment research firm ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
Every day next week, traders will get a dose of new corporate and economic news that may give them more insight into the depth of the U.S. recession and credit crunch.
Items most likely to move stocks include minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest-rate setting meeting, two big tech conferences, returning lawmakers' efforts on another stimulus package and Friday's job report."
_______________________
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
These are the questions you must ask yourself:
What do I want?
What do I not want?
What am I afraid of?
To be successful in the unreal world you first must be good at something. Until you are truly good at something you have little value to others, and have not even proven to yourself what you can develop.
As you gain skills you must also love and be generous. Any part of you that is not doing this, that is unforgiving, just wastes life.
Go out and:
1. Do what you’ll say you’ll do.
2. Finish what you start.
3. Be on time.
4. Say Please and Thank You.
5. Listen
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
In markets as we are seeing it's always good to day trade when one can, and lock profits, as the struggle between down and upside will continue. We continue to see our Dow projections on target, with upswing potential, and downswing correction, prior to the inauguration, when most traders think we'll have a strong burst upside to the market on change.
_____________
There is a good argument against long term deflation in the U.S., and that's the price of Gold, which has held steady during the crash. As we see a sharp spike in Gold prices,which I believe will happen, we will see more concern about inflation, probably resulting from the FED's massive liquidity injections and Treasury bailout schemes. In our sister service, www.bluechipoptions.com, we work with Gold as a commodity in our stock recommendations. At OEX we're most concerned watching gold to see if inflation can create a large rally. We continue to believe we could have a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows.
________________
In 1993 there were only a few dozen antibacterial consumer products. Today there are more than 9000, with 2753 new ones introduced in 2007 alone. Never mind that the FDA concluded four years ago that antibacterial soap and lotion products and 98% ineffective compared to regular suds available and washing your hands.
We want relief. We want solutions. We buy what we are told will "save us" (Iraq, the TSA, antimicrobial products, Prozac, and now even mood enhancers like Abilify that are meant to work with your existing anti depressant, if that isn't enough.)
TV shows are now ready to stimulate our anxiety. CSI shows, et al are meant to stimulate our anxiety of "what could happen to us" in the name of ratings, and we want it. This is why when the zealots tell us family values blah blah blah they forget that as good as that sounds, it is WE as a populace that buy this FEAR.
And amidst that fear, we've led the last 8 years with the most unprecedented GREED seen since the great depression, where just a few,unregulated in their capitalistic plays, created falsehoods that we also all bought, to get more, our GREED.
And here we are.
It's now the second day that the institutional traders are back from holiday, and what the talking heads have been saying:
"With many professional money managers home for the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the stock market made its recent moves in very light volume. The return of institutional money next week will determine whether these gains stick.
"The real question is, is this going to last when traders come back from vacation?" said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at investment research firm ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
Every day next week, traders will get a dose of new corporate and economic news that may give them more insight into the depth of the U.S. recession and credit crunch.
Items most likely to move stocks include minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest-rate setting meeting, two big tech conferences, returning lawmakers' efforts on another stimulus package and Friday's job report."
_______________________
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
These are the questions you must ask yourself:
What do I want?
What do I not want?
What am I afraid of?
To be successful in the unreal world you first must be good at something. Until you are truly good at something you have little value to others, and have not even proven to yourself what you can develop.
As you gain skills you must also love and be generous. Any part of you that is not doing this, that is unforgiving, just wastes life.
Go out and:
1. Do what you’ll say you’ll do.
2. Finish what you start.
3. Be on time.
4. Say Please and Thank You.
5. Listen
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, January 5, 2009
Risk Society
When FDR took office in 1933 a quarter of the American people were unemployed. Remember, it was a much smaller nation. Now, we're hitting what the government says is 10% unemployment, but they now "twist numbers" to eliminate the"chronically unemployed," a Bushian twist that made unemployment look better. I believe our actual unemployment may hit 18% by the end of the first quarter in 09.
FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Psychologists call our current period a "risk society", meaning we are now all preoccupied with threats to our safety, both real and perceived. Americans, for example, believe the "world is more dangerous than ever before"; evidence negates this misperception, but there is no relief.
Now, we lock our doors, say our prayers to our variety of Gods, take sleeping pills to fall asleep, and anti depressant or alcohol to ease our pain. Liquor and anti depressant sales are at all time highs.
What does this mean to a trader?
Our media thrives on creating fear, whether conservative or liberal. In the past, fear created a unification and solidarity; right now, we are a split nation struggling with the fear, and not yet unified.
Obama's greatest hope is his ability to show calm and unify us,after a disastrous eight years of Bushian "my way, the Emperor" strategy.
Psychologically our brains are not wired to process modern life. This means our brain functions to handle what we call "stress or over emotion" for the amount of stimulus/input we have created in our culture, from instant TV news, to Blackberry life, cell phones, and the web. We are inundating ourselves with information and actionable items.
______________
I"m glad I decided to give you all a New Year's present with Friday's alert. The January 460C was available below prior day close, at 1.90, and sold to highs of 5.00 by 3.45 pm in trading for up to 150% returns!
Traders also took two buy inventory to the January 420P, and we hold as an open position. Additionally, many traders reported day trade profits of a $1.00 per contract during the early market swing.
The market moved up in classic "it's a new year, everything will be good" euphoria, and may continue to our Dow projection top, but we suggest a sell off to within our Dow projections by no later than Thursday of this week.
We've been profitable on so many trades recently, and I do believe the market will begin to correct upwards, to a Fibonnaci retracment of 38% from the lowest low, to highs near 10,600, but only by the end of the year, and around massive volatility.
Friday's 250 point upswing was on LIGHT holiday volume. It is not yet a trend. There may a slight bit more topping, but we see correction before more upswing around the inauguration of our new President.
So here I am now giving you a hard core sales pitch:
Introducing Floydian Therapy, private psychological training. This is based on much of the transpersonal psychology metaphysics columns I've written this past month, that so many of you have "asked for more".
As usual, my pitch will be low key, as I only want clients ready for "real time therapy" based on my transpersonal work.
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
Luck is a definition, and a theory. I fully believe thoughts and behaviors control our success, what I try to teach. Emotions are much of thoughts and behaviors.
I believe the law of attraction works perfectly when one's mind is clear, without prejudice (study the definition), and with focus anyone can gain "luck".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
On Dec 30, 2008, at 8:24 PM, MP wrote:
Hey Floyd...I read the brief article on Luck and thought of you...it made me wonder how much of trading can be attributed to luck as well?
Why do some people have all the luck while others are perpetually unlucky? Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire was determined to get to the scientific bottom of the phenomenon of luck, and what he discovered may surprise you:
I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Psychologists call our current period a "risk society", meaning we are now all preoccupied with threats to our safety, both real and perceived. Americans, for example, believe the "world is more dangerous than ever before"; evidence negates this misperception, but there is no relief.
Now, we lock our doors, say our prayers to our variety of Gods, take sleeping pills to fall asleep, and anti depressant or alcohol to ease our pain. Liquor and anti depressant sales are at all time highs.
What does this mean to a trader?
Our media thrives on creating fear, whether conservative or liberal. In the past, fear created a unification and solidarity; right now, we are a split nation struggling with the fear, and not yet unified.
Obama's greatest hope is his ability to show calm and unify us,after a disastrous eight years of Bushian "my way, the Emperor" strategy.
Psychologically our brains are not wired to process modern life. This means our brain functions to handle what we call "stress or over emotion" for the amount of stimulus/input we have created in our culture, from instant TV news, to Blackberry life, cell phones, and the web. We are inundating ourselves with information and actionable items.
______________
I"m glad I decided to give you all a New Year's present with Friday's alert. The January 460C was available below prior day close, at 1.90, and sold to highs of 5.00 by 3.45 pm in trading for up to 150% returns!
Traders also took two buy inventory to the January 420P, and we hold as an open position. Additionally, many traders reported day trade profits of a $1.00 per contract during the early market swing.
The market moved up in classic "it's a new year, everything will be good" euphoria, and may continue to our Dow projection top, but we suggest a sell off to within our Dow projections by no later than Thursday of this week.
We've been profitable on so many trades recently, and I do believe the market will begin to correct upwards, to a Fibonnaci retracment of 38% from the lowest low, to highs near 10,600, but only by the end of the year, and around massive volatility.
Friday's 250 point upswing was on LIGHT holiday volume. It is not yet a trend. There may a slight bit more topping, but we see correction before more upswing around the inauguration of our new President.
So here I am now giving you a hard core sales pitch:
Introducing Floydian Therapy, private psychological training. This is based on much of the transpersonal psychology metaphysics columns I've written this past month, that so many of you have "asked for more".
As usual, my pitch will be low key, as I only want clients ready for "real time therapy" based on my transpersonal work.
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
Luck is a definition, and a theory. I fully believe thoughts and behaviors control our success, what I try to teach. Emotions are much of thoughts and behaviors.
I believe the law of attraction works perfectly when one's mind is clear, without prejudice (study the definition), and with focus anyone can gain "luck".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
On Dec 30, 2008, at 8:24 PM, MP wrote:
Hey Floyd...I read the brief article on Luck and thought of you...it made me wonder how much of trading can be attributed to luck as well?
Why do some people have all the luck while others are perpetually unlucky? Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire was determined to get to the scientific bottom of the phenomenon of luck, and what he discovered may surprise you:
I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
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