We recommend NOT holding any open option positions over the holiday weekend. We'll be back with you Monday evening with an alert.
Subscriber RV from Florida may sing what is happening best:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoHL8rrmIAQ
A few comments:
1. The Toyota mess has killed 89 people.
2. The BP mess may be destroying the world. Greed and lack of regulation is what caused this, not just BP. This has happened before, but in areas we would not know about.
3. The Iraqi war killed 100's of thousands.
Our perspectives are warped.
We spend more time on football than helping.
19% of NFL big boys get Alzheimers, some say. Duh. These are giant overweight men on steroids banging their heads into one another.
And a few more, because I'm excited and in the mood:
*Many Christians believe this is all in the Bible, what is happening. Although translated over 16,000 times, my suggestion to these Christians is party hard and fast if the world is ending, because half of the world thinks you are NUTS:)
*Finally the good guys are rewarded. Apple, which makes incredible products, suddenly has more cash value than Microsoft, which makes CRAP products (control alt delete) and virus filters for their own software. I feel somewhat vindicated that the good can win. It seldom happens.
*If any of you are stupid eoughf to think President Obama is adding to or creating the oil crisis you are really missing some logic brain cells. This is merely a Roveian play to take every advantage of a world disaster and play it out as if "the administration didn't do enough." It's enough to make you smile. The Republicans are simply trying to "oust the President." By not agreeing to anything they've stalled any form of growth or change.
*If you trust any of the mega banks in anything that they are doing, you need counsel, and if you trust any part of Congress with the lobbyist game, and think the Tea Party (or Obama, for that matter) will bring revolution and change.
*71% of all white people in the U.S. support the Arizona immigrations "rights to profile laws," a radically right wing movement. Human rights are being taken away.
Now as to the market: No-one would have bought puts yesterday a.m with futures up over 200 points,and our open call was profitable up to 104% by 2.45 p.m.
Although this has been an exhausting week in trading we have traded successfully, some traders write, during the whipsaw made up to 17 profitable day trades on both put and call during the whipsaw. Admittedly, this is the hardest market I have ever traded, one I think no one really understands right now, but some are making big dollars off these "bets on the swings."
Think of your trading this way. It is "bets on the swing" around a system that tells you where to buy and sell and to treat options like a fruit vendor.
Have a Great Memorial Day Week-End.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Full Moon Phases Always Affect the Market
It is a full moon tomorrow and this always affects the market. The Bond Market will close at 2 p.m. tomorrow and we will not offer any new trade, as we see volume at a minimum before the Memorial Day weekend.
We saw what happened yesterday. The market moved up, the market moved down, and would not hold above 10,000. Gold continued to climb. Oil still destroys our country, and the EU union may be in default.
And, Tea Partiers, Obama might not be an American citizen. Just to think, this rhetoric is more important than what is important. Do we know?
We recommend holding no open OEX positions over the holiday weekend, and will have our alerts out next Monday evening. You will receive a trade alert tomorrow, but it is meant to close any open positions.
Happy Holiday!
Blue Chip commentary this weekend to our subscribers at www.bluechiptopions.com will emphasize the corporatization of the world, where those who have the real cash assets, and those holding precious metals will benefit short term from how the stock market is going to change.
For those of you happy about the lower oil prices, open your eyes:
Rising Drilling Costs Mean $90 Crude in 2018: Energy Markets
By Grant Smith
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- The rising costs of extracting oil are propping up New York futures for the years ahead, even as prices sink for crude that will be delivered over the rest of this year.
The futures contract closest to delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled 13 percent in the past three months to below $70 a barrel as investors fled riskier assets and the December 2015 contract lost 5 percent. At the same time December 2018 futures remain above $90 a barrel, suggesting analysts are less pessimistic about the long term. The U.S. Labor Department’s index for oil- and gas-field machinery costs rose in April for the first time in six months.
“The price is holding at decent levels” for delivery in later years, said Paul Tossetti, an analyst in Dallas with consultants PFC Energy. “You need a certain level for all these high-priced resources that are coming on-stream, deepwater Gulf of Mexico, deepwater Brazil and the Canadian oil sands. That’s the dynamic part of the non-OPEC oil supply.”
The oil contract closest to delivery slumped to $64.24 a barrel on May 20, the lowest intra-day price since July 2009, on concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. Oil for July delivery was trading on Nymex at $69.38, up 0.6 percent, at 10:16 a.m. in Singapore.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained on May 24 its 2011 price forecast, even as it sliced its projection for the second half of this year by 18 percent. The U.S.Energy Information Administration said yesterday that oil prices will rise to $108 a barrel by 2020 as the global economy rebounds.
Non-OPEC Growth
Merrill estimated supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase 1.1 percent, to 52.1 million barrels a day this year. That follows 700,000 barrels a day last year, the biggest jump in five years. Non-OPEC countries produce about 60 percent of global output.
“The costs related to the oil industry, materials, equipment, actually increased,” said Andy Sommer, senior analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. “The back-end of the curve is supported by that.”
The Labor Department’s Index for U.S. oil and gas producers’ machinery costs rose 0.5 percent to 200.30 last month, its first increase since October.
“We also expect the market to remain relatively tight on solid emerging market fundamentals in 2011 and beyond, particularly in Asia,” Merrill’s head of commodities research Francisco Blanch said in the report. The bank said crude prices will average $85 a barrel next year.
Contango Persists
Oil futures for later delivery have been more expensive than immediate supplies since October 2008, a price structure known as contango that can indicate expectations for tighter supplies in future. The International Energy Agency forecast in a Nov. 10 report that global oil demand will grow 1 percent a year to reach 105 million barrels a day by 2030.
“Concerns over a Eurozone-centered debt crisis, and the Chinese economy, and U.S. financial regulations, have no impact on full-cycle production costs or on the medium-term view,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London. “And the medium-term view is one of global oil demand growth bumping into a mature supply base.”
We saw what happened yesterday. The market moved up, the market moved down, and would not hold above 10,000. Gold continued to climb. Oil still destroys our country, and the EU union may be in default.
And, Tea Partiers, Obama might not be an American citizen. Just to think, this rhetoric is more important than what is important. Do we know?
We recommend holding no open OEX positions over the holiday weekend, and will have our alerts out next Monday evening. You will receive a trade alert tomorrow, but it is meant to close any open positions.
Happy Holiday!
Blue Chip commentary this weekend to our subscribers at www.bluechiptopions.com will emphasize the corporatization of the world, where those who have the real cash assets, and those holding precious metals will benefit short term from how the stock market is going to change.
For those of you happy about the lower oil prices, open your eyes:
Rising Drilling Costs Mean $90 Crude in 2018: Energy Markets
By Grant Smith
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- The rising costs of extracting oil are propping up New York futures for the years ahead, even as prices sink for crude that will be delivered over the rest of this year.
The futures contract closest to delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled 13 percent in the past three months to below $70 a barrel as investors fled riskier assets and the December 2015 contract lost 5 percent. At the same time December 2018 futures remain above $90 a barrel, suggesting analysts are less pessimistic about the long term. The U.S. Labor Department’s index for oil- and gas-field machinery costs rose in April for the first time in six months.
“The price is holding at decent levels” for delivery in later years, said Paul Tossetti, an analyst in Dallas with consultants PFC Energy. “You need a certain level for all these high-priced resources that are coming on-stream, deepwater Gulf of Mexico, deepwater Brazil and the Canadian oil sands. That’s the dynamic part of the non-OPEC oil supply.”
The oil contract closest to delivery slumped to $64.24 a barrel on May 20, the lowest intra-day price since July 2009, on concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. Oil for July delivery was trading on Nymex at $69.38, up 0.6 percent, at 10:16 a.m. in Singapore.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained on May 24 its 2011 price forecast, even as it sliced its projection for the second half of this year by 18 percent. The U.S.Energy Information Administration said yesterday that oil prices will rise to $108 a barrel by 2020 as the global economy rebounds.
Non-OPEC Growth
Merrill estimated supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase 1.1 percent, to 52.1 million barrels a day this year. That follows 700,000 barrels a day last year, the biggest jump in five years. Non-OPEC countries produce about 60 percent of global output.
“The costs related to the oil industry, materials, equipment, actually increased,” said Andy Sommer, senior analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. “The back-end of the curve is supported by that.”
The Labor Department’s Index for U.S. oil and gas producers’ machinery costs rose 0.5 percent to 200.30 last month, its first increase since October.
“We also expect the market to remain relatively tight on solid emerging market fundamentals in 2011 and beyond, particularly in Asia,” Merrill’s head of commodities research Francisco Blanch said in the report. The bank said crude prices will average $85 a barrel next year.
Contango Persists
Oil futures for later delivery have been more expensive than immediate supplies since October 2008, a price structure known as contango that can indicate expectations for tighter supplies in future. The International Energy Agency forecast in a Nov. 10 report that global oil demand will grow 1 percent a year to reach 105 million barrels a day by 2030.
“Concerns over a Eurozone-centered debt crisis, and the Chinese economy, and U.S. financial regulations, have no impact on full-cycle production costs or on the medium-term view,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London. “And the medium-term view is one of global oil demand growth bumping into a mature supply base.”
Monday, May 24, 2010
Corporations Control Us
Our Count is 12 to the put. ?????????? We can also see the option chain signal bias changing by the end of day upside on last Friday's wildly volatile swings.
This shows the most extreme of bell curves, and a whipsaw market that has moved back above 10,000 after hitting 9850 lows
The markets obviously continue on a sell cycle, but may be at this point so extreme that an upside gap could occur. Our Dow Projections are lengthy this week, covering over 1000 points, and remember we Twitter each day with new support/resistance lines and pivot when the market moves 100 points. Recently we can't keep up :)
We are contrarian to the downside for the short term, and continue to see an upside, in stages, leading the market to over 10,550 on the Dow and higher. We also believe the upside will not last, and are providing very specific instruction to our Blue Chip subscribers. www.bluechipoptions.com
The reaction to BP is indicative of what we believe of Free Enterprise, and proof of our ongoing discussions that we as a world are really no more nations, as actual corporations control us.
We will list both put and call, and define to watch futures carefully. Both of our open issues were available to our system rules, or already held. Nothing could surprise us in an electronically traded market with few controls, similar to the BP Oil Rig. "Oops, we didn't think of that" we expect only of our average people, and both regulation, oversight, and penalty could be law that controls both the stock market, and oil.
The craziness of the market, the sadness of this oil spill. Our lack of forethought on both. People feeling the emotion this week of losing ALL of their 2009 gains in a simple week in all of their holdings, only to see slight rebound, and to here nothing but dire news.
This shows the most extreme of bell curves, and a whipsaw market that has moved back above 10,000 after hitting 9850 lows
The markets obviously continue on a sell cycle, but may be at this point so extreme that an upside gap could occur. Our Dow Projections are lengthy this week, covering over 1000 points, and remember we Twitter each day with new support/resistance lines and pivot when the market moves 100 points. Recently we can't keep up :)
We are contrarian to the downside for the short term, and continue to see an upside, in stages, leading the market to over 10,550 on the Dow and higher. We also believe the upside will not last, and are providing very specific instruction to our Blue Chip subscribers. www.bluechipoptions.com
The reaction to BP is indicative of what we believe of Free Enterprise, and proof of our ongoing discussions that we as a world are really no more nations, as actual corporations control us.
We will list both put and call, and define to watch futures carefully. Both of our open issues were available to our system rules, or already held. Nothing could surprise us in an electronically traded market with few controls, similar to the BP Oil Rig. "Oops, we didn't think of that" we expect only of our average people, and both regulation, oversight, and penalty could be law that controls both the stock market, and oil.
The craziness of the market, the sadness of this oil spill. Our lack of forethought on both. People feeling the emotion this week of losing ALL of their 2009 gains in a simple week in all of their holdings, only to see slight rebound, and to here nothing but dire news.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
A Distinct Bottom
The market hit lows of 10,047 by early afternoon, a distinct bottom in our Dow projections. Further downside puts us back to the correction we first dealt with, and confirms those that believe the "crash" would surface again.
Others believe that the volatility is often caused by electronic trading, what may be the end of Wall Street and stock trading as we know it.
At OEX and our sister site www.bluechipoptions.com we remain bullish on this market short term, and believe much of what we are seeing in this correction is based on technical fear, and lack of controls. We're surprised the market hit these lows, and our put recommendation yesterday was HIGHLY profitable to any of our subscribers (and we have many) that "break my rule" of never buying above prior day close. Traders were able to do this all day long, and to play the call, and day trading was astonishing, with some traders moving in and out numerous times.
We hold an OTM call, and will hold it. Those following the rules did not play the put yesterday, and a 300 point move in a day should be concerning not by the amount of decline, but the reason for the decline.
We'll offer a day trade on the put as a new signal, but watch futures carefully before entry. Retracement may well occur from the bottoms.
You will see a new banner on our homepage for Centerpointe Research. This is not a paid advertisement, but my promoting the meditation tapes that help with alpha/beta/theta sound waves that I mention often in the OEX Manual. Take the time to click on Centerpointe and learn their unique method of training the mind to meditate.
Others believe that the volatility is often caused by electronic trading, what may be the end of Wall Street and stock trading as we know it.
At OEX and our sister site www.bluechipoptions.com we remain bullish on this market short term, and believe much of what we are seeing in this correction is based on technical fear, and lack of controls. We're surprised the market hit these lows, and our put recommendation yesterday was HIGHLY profitable to any of our subscribers (and we have many) that "break my rule" of never buying above prior day close. Traders were able to do this all day long, and to play the call, and day trading was astonishing, with some traders moving in and out numerous times.
We hold an OTM call, and will hold it. Those following the rules did not play the put yesterday, and a 300 point move in a day should be concerning not by the amount of decline, but the reason for the decline.
We'll offer a day trade on the put as a new signal, but watch futures carefully before entry. Retracement may well occur from the bottoms.
You will see a new banner on our homepage for Centerpointe Research. This is not a paid advertisement, but my promoting the meditation tapes that help with alpha/beta/theta sound waves that I mention often in the OEX Manual. Take the time to click on Centerpointe and learn their unique method of training the mind to meditate.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
A Nation on EDGE
Yesterday the market opened and dropped to a theoretical Dow bottom of 10,284 before beginning to hesitate, and move up to highs of 10,573 by early afternoon.....to fall again to 10,350.....to rise again....by noon we had great profits on our June450Put selling to highs of 5.50. We traded this put earlier this week, buying as low as 2.95 and selling to 4.40. We're at the same juncture now with a two buy made to the call, and profits today on the put from 2.95 lows to 5.50. Only traders that held the put from earlier this week could take these profits, but tight .50 day trade profits were possible several times during the day as the market whipsawed.
Only when the FOMC announced that "free money" was continuing and the fears of inflation abating did the market actually stop its freefall.
This is a battle of false facts. America is FEARFUL of Europe, Europe is FEARFUL of what they have wrought, and oil streams around our shores.
We are a nation on an "edge." This shows classically in the market, with the massive whipsaws to an overall 10% correction. And, as you know, I believe it became 10% because the market rose too quickly, things got "better" too fast, and VIX fell to all time lows of complacency.
The market is now "the world" and the instantaneous news fills our moods, while electronic trading consumes our market.
Only when the FOMC announced that "free money" was continuing and the fears of inflation abating did the market actually stop its freefall.
This is a battle of false facts. America is FEARFUL of Europe, Europe is FEARFUL of what they have wrought, and oil streams around our shores.
We are a nation on an "edge." This shows classically in the market, with the massive whipsaws to an overall 10% correction. And, as you know, I believe it became 10% because the market rose too quickly, things got "better" too fast, and VIX fell to all time lows of complacency.
The market is now "the world" and the instantaneous news fills our moods, while electronic trading consumes our market.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Wall Street Lives in FEAR
Wall Street lives in FEAR that Europe will drag the world back into recession. Oil is declining in price while precious oil spills out,and it's summer, time of hurricanes and higher prices. Gold hits highs. Conjecture is rampant. 1280 we still see as PNF estimate as a top, but prices rising dramatically by fall, and silver following it.
Calls were profitable for those that owned them from yesterday, rising from 2.95 to 3.20 average buys to highs of 4.50 in early morning trading. Puts were also possible for profits!
OEX JUN 2010 450.0000 PUT. This was an easy buy as low as 2.95 with sales to 3.30 by 2.00 p.m.
I thought you would be interested in the following story on WSJ.com.
Crude Slides to a 2010 Low
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315404575250001857807896.html
Most bulls see upside targets of 10,753, 10,990, and 11,030. Market moves were hesitant all of 5/18 thru 2 p.m. with bounces above and below the pivot. The market tried lows again in the 3 p.m. hour but held in the same whipsaw.
Most trading analysts see more significant lows potentially taking place through May, while others analysts continue to see an 11,000 run before more downside.
Calls were profitable for those that owned them from yesterday, rising from 2.95 to 3.20 average buys to highs of 4.50 in early morning trading. Puts were also possible for profits!
OEX JUN 2010 450.0000 PUT. This was an easy buy as low as 2.95 with sales to 3.30 by 2.00 p.m.
I thought you would be interested in the following story on WSJ.com.
Crude Slides to a 2010 Low
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315404575250001857807896.html
Most bulls see upside targets of 10,753, 10,990, and 11,030. Market moves were hesitant all of 5/18 thru 2 p.m. with bounces above and below the pivot. The market tried lows again in the 3 p.m. hour but held in the same whipsaw.
Most trading analysts see more significant lows potentially taking place through May, while others analysts continue to see an 11,000 run before more downside.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Pressure of Fear
Yesterday was Floyd's form of perfect trading. The market hit theoretical Dow lows of 10,396, only to reverse to 10,600 by 2.47 p.m.
This allowed us profits on both the put and call that were recommended this morning. Here's a note from MS, a new Advanced Mentoring student:
"Today's going well so far. Picked up the put at 3.30 and sold to 4.40. Then bought the call for 3.2"
I did not hear back from MS but even the 3.20 buy on the call showed a profit, and some traders bought two buys as the market bottomed and were able to trade the call with highs of 3.90 and lows of 2.95.
The market may be bottoming, or may have another run to 10,121 to give us all the chills, but we think the next moves are up, and enough to "relieve pressure" of FEAR, for the short term.
No chart concludes this, as actually only PNF charts right now give any clarity by showing former support and resistance lines.
Remember this as the talking heads talk.
There will be more debt. There will be a higher unemployment rate. The large companies will thrive, as they are now. Republicans, Democrats, and all of us can sit back and realize we are now really run by corporations, as we have just so painfully learned in the Gulf of Mexico.
This allowed us profits on both the put and call that were recommended this morning. Here's a note from MS, a new Advanced Mentoring student:
"Today's going well so far. Picked up the put at 3.30 and sold to 4.40. Then bought the call for 3.2"
I did not hear back from MS but even the 3.20 buy on the call showed a profit, and some traders bought two buys as the market bottomed and were able to trade the call with highs of 3.90 and lows of 2.95.
The market may be bottoming, or may have another run to 10,121 to give us all the chills, but we think the next moves are up, and enough to "relieve pressure" of FEAR, for the short term.
No chart concludes this, as actually only PNF charts right now give any clarity by showing former support and resistance lines.
Remember this as the talking heads talk.
There will be more debt. There will be a higher unemployment rate. The large companies will thrive, as they are now. Republicans, Democrats, and all of us can sit back and realize we are now really run by corporations, as we have just so painfully learned in the Gulf of Mexico.
Monday, May 17, 2010
Whipsaw Action
We all know the whipsaws of the past few weeks, and the FEAR and GREED that have both tugged their war. This week is perhaps a bottom testing following our Dow projections, and we think a rise to near 11,000.
1. Barrons: '"America's biggest companies are sitting on loads of cash and ready to earn higher profits than ever before. This will affect the economy long term, dividends, and everyone's investments."
2. Floyd: "With regulation to high fractally based super computers the stock market will evolve. Without controls, it will be destroyed as we know it, perhaps by late fall this year. Only but a few will make money."
3. Floyd: "The never ending rhetoric and economic theory about the financial debts being incurred around the world are immaterial. It is happening. It is not stopping. It has happened. How we now pay for it is much like 'drill for oil' on our coats, and figure out if it's really safe later."
4.Floyd: "We are 1/3 larger as people than we were 25 years ago."
5.Floyd: "Sarah Palin earned 12 million last year."
So, now, decide how the market will do.
1. Barrons: '"America's biggest companies are sitting on loads of cash and ready to earn higher profits than ever before. This will affect the economy long term, dividends, and everyone's investments."
2. Floyd: "With regulation to high fractally based super computers the stock market will evolve. Without controls, it will be destroyed as we know it, perhaps by late fall this year. Only but a few will make money."
3. Floyd: "The never ending rhetoric and economic theory about the financial debts being incurred around the world are immaterial. It is happening. It is not stopping. It has happened. How we now pay for it is much like 'drill for oil' on our coats, and figure out if it's really safe later."
4.Floyd: "We are 1/3 larger as people than we were 25 years ago."
5.Floyd: "Sarah Palin earned 12 million last year."
So, now, decide how the market will do.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Trilemma?
50 Percent Of Americans Want MORE Offshore Drilling, Poll Finds
Now, perhaps another click:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html
**Trifecta or Trilemma? Harvard economics professor Dani Rodrik echoes the sentiment here of many economists: The Greek bailout gives Europe some breathing room, but few believe it will solve the continent's massive debt dilemma. "Whatever the outcome," Rodrik recently wrote, "it is clear that the Greek debacle has given the EU a black eye."
Rodrik introduces what he calls "the political trilemma of the world economy." He claims economic globalization, political democracy, and the nation-state are mutually irreconcilable. We can have two of the three, but never the trifecta.
"Democracy is compatible with national sovereignty only if we restrict globalization. If we push for globalization while retaining the nation-state, we must jettison democracy. And if we want democracy along with globalization, we must shove the nation-state aside and strive for greater international governance," he writes.
Market update: The struggle is on. The market flat lines, with just enough upside to enter the call at best buy prices as low as 8.20. Whipsaws are tighter, gold and silver both fall slightly. Something is up. And the 3 p.m. hour takes us right back to our Fibonacci retracement, 10, 746.
We still see another upside burst and remain bullish short term, perhaps one last burst up before summer. In other words, we think this may hold, and we'll have one more upside.
We are contrarian to the strength of this downside. Cycles are being broken every day right now, but a stronger downside I would have seen later in the year.
Now, perhaps another click:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/disaster_unfolds_slowly_in_the.html
**Trifecta or Trilemma? Harvard economics professor Dani Rodrik echoes the sentiment here of many economists: The Greek bailout gives Europe some breathing room, but few believe it will solve the continent's massive debt dilemma. "Whatever the outcome," Rodrik recently wrote, "it is clear that the Greek debacle has given the EU a black eye."
Rodrik introduces what he calls "the political trilemma of the world economy." He claims economic globalization, political democracy, and the nation-state are mutually irreconcilable. We can have two of the three, but never the trifecta.
"Democracy is compatible with national sovereignty only if we restrict globalization. If we push for globalization while retaining the nation-state, we must jettison democracy. And if we want democracy along with globalization, we must shove the nation-state aside and strive for greater international governance," he writes.
Market update: The struggle is on. The market flat lines, with just enough upside to enter the call at best buy prices as low as 8.20. Whipsaws are tighter, gold and silver both fall slightly. Something is up. And the 3 p.m. hour takes us right back to our Fibonacci retracement, 10, 746.
We still see another upside burst and remain bullish short term, perhaps one last burst up before summer. In other words, we think this may hold, and we'll have one more upside.
We are contrarian to the strength of this downside. Cycles are being broken every day right now, but a stronger downside I would have seen later in the year.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Technology Has Spurred Changes
"Technology has spurred changes in trading mechanism that likely contributed to Thursday's Market Meltdown," screams Barons this past weekend. Answers and fixes, they want. And then sometime we'll get back to the faulty financials.
News, triggers, explanations that these 1000 point high frequency trading drops or climbs could occur again without more regulation to a newly evolving industry within Wall Street.
The market continued up, all bullish signs ahead, and had hit Dow theoretical tops of 10,950, before trying to settle back at resistance lines.
It is likely for a pullback, everyone says, and it is just as likely that the market will close soon above 11,000. We continue to only buy to the call, noting the lower bell curve count of 5 because of the whipsaw. There may be room for just a bit more upside, and surprises.
News, triggers, explanations that these 1000 point high frequency trading drops or climbs could occur again without more regulation to a newly evolving industry within Wall Street.
The market continued up, all bullish signs ahead, and had hit Dow theoretical tops of 10,950, before trying to settle back at resistance lines.
It is likely for a pullback, everyone says, and it is just as likely that the market will close soon above 11,000. We continue to only buy to the call, noting the lower bell curve count of 5 because of the whipsaw. There may be room for just a bit more upside, and surprises.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Surprise!
This is how the day started: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap28Nu0.7e1M&pos=2
Surprise! Suddenly the world is looking at the EU, and if it can manage the debt (printing money as we do), and hesitating, with futures down over 100 points by 9 a.m.
This allowed us great opportunity to enter to our call
"Technology has spurred changes in trading mechanism that likely contributed to Thursday's Market Meltdown," screams Barons this past weekend. Answers and fixes, they want.
And then sometime we'll get back to the faulty financials with companies and governments that started it all. And we believed in accountants and bankers.....hmmm?
By 3.15 p.m. the market had moved to negative territory, but still held near our 10,746 retracement.
It is important we all know this. There is no trader or trading system in the world right now that can predict what will happen. We are just starting to decipher "the 20 minutes" and opinions are just starting to flow. We repeat: Downturn like this is possible, and we could repeat our lowest lows; conversely we could have higher lower and a mild move up, or catastrophe.
And, no one knows.
Surprise! Suddenly the world is looking at the EU, and if it can manage the debt (printing money as we do), and hesitating, with futures down over 100 points by 9 a.m.
This allowed us great opportunity to enter to our call
"Technology has spurred changes in trading mechanism that likely contributed to Thursday's Market Meltdown," screams Barons this past weekend. Answers and fixes, they want.
And then sometime we'll get back to the faulty financials with companies and governments that started it all. And we believed in accountants and bankers.....hmmm?
By 3.15 p.m. the market had moved to negative territory, but still held near our 10,746 retracement.
It is important we all know this. There is no trader or trading system in the world right now that can predict what will happen. We are just starting to decipher "the 20 minutes" and opinions are just starting to flow. We repeat: Downturn like this is possible, and we could repeat our lowest lows; conversely we could have higher lower and a mild move up, or catastrophe.
And, no one knows.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Moday After... UP
Monday after Mother's Day, Dow up 12 of last 14
McDonalds today releases April sales. Holders in our Blue Chip option (www.bluechipoptions.com) have already seen a 36% rise on this option, and wlll hopefully selling the rest of their position Monday when slimey old McD, worst hamburger made, ugliest buildings, promoting a fat culture, will again BOOM.
Meanwhile, Friday we stop lossed on the call, our first loss in 16 days of trading, but took nice profits on the May515 Put, which hit highs of 135%.
Actually astute day traders reported in following our support and resistance lines and our mid day recalculation sent by Twitter were able to trade both put and call profitably several times during the day as the market massively whipsawed.
China will most likely show a second month of a trade balance, showing a deficit and this might trigger the market.
Fidelity Brokerage, and I'm sure others, has defined that all trades on May 6th between 2.40 p.m. and 3.00 p.m may be deemed "clearly erroneous" and corrected.
Of course you have read that it was Proctor and Gamble hitting new lows on "gossip" that new Pampers caused skin rashes, and falling 22% in a minute, leading the market down.
You have also read it was the fast transaction electronic trading that caused this.
Traders with us at Blue Chip Options have heard from Floyd the past 8 weeks that the market was overextended, and likely to have a 3% retracement to the 10,746 line.
That 3% runs with Elliott Wave and Fibonnaci movements. However, chartists can easily prove the 5.5% actual moves we saw in the market can be correlated with extreme cycles around Elliott Wave.
More important, it is the speed in which we saw FEAR spread, and shows Floyd (screw all the reasons why, even Goldman's President says he doesn't know (sure)) is correct on one thing:
When euphoria moves the market as much as we've seen in the insane run up to new highs, without healthy consolidations, the market itself takes over and "cuts your nuts off."
That's what happened. A consolidation, for whatever reason, needed to occur, and it did.
What happens next is the key.
We'll comment this week "on what really happened," but we recommend being very prudent in all option trades. The market is actually electronically mixed up. My brokerage couldn't even show the OEX option chain, and I found several others that showed NO options.
Whatever this electronic trading is, and what nano seconds on emotions are creating, and 76% or more of the market now controlled by these types of trades we have again entered the Wall Street Wild West.
McDonalds today releases April sales. Holders in our Blue Chip option (www.bluechipoptions.com) have already seen a 36% rise on this option, and wlll hopefully selling the rest of their position Monday when slimey old McD, worst hamburger made, ugliest buildings, promoting a fat culture, will again BOOM.
Meanwhile, Friday we stop lossed on the call, our first loss in 16 days of trading, but took nice profits on the May515 Put, which hit highs of 135%.
Actually astute day traders reported in following our support and resistance lines and our mid day recalculation sent by Twitter were able to trade both put and call profitably several times during the day as the market massively whipsawed.
China will most likely show a second month of a trade balance, showing a deficit and this might trigger the market.
Fidelity Brokerage, and I'm sure others, has defined that all trades on May 6th between 2.40 p.m. and 3.00 p.m may be deemed "clearly erroneous" and corrected.
Of course you have read that it was Proctor and Gamble hitting new lows on "gossip" that new Pampers caused skin rashes, and falling 22% in a minute, leading the market down.
You have also read it was the fast transaction electronic trading that caused this.
Traders with us at Blue Chip Options have heard from Floyd the past 8 weeks that the market was overextended, and likely to have a 3% retracement to the 10,746 line.
That 3% runs with Elliott Wave and Fibonnaci movements. However, chartists can easily prove the 5.5% actual moves we saw in the market can be correlated with extreme cycles around Elliott Wave.
More important, it is the speed in which we saw FEAR spread, and shows Floyd (screw all the reasons why, even Goldman's President says he doesn't know (sure)) is correct on one thing:
When euphoria moves the market as much as we've seen in the insane run up to new highs, without healthy consolidations, the market itself takes over and "cuts your nuts off."
That's what happened. A consolidation, for whatever reason, needed to occur, and it did.
What happens next is the key.
We'll comment this week "on what really happened," but we recommend being very prudent in all option trades. The market is actually electronically mixed up. My brokerage couldn't even show the OEX option chain, and I found several others that showed NO options.
Whatever this electronic trading is, and what nano seconds on emotions are creating, and 76% or more of the market now controlled by these types of trades we have again entered the Wall Street Wild West.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
1000 Points in One Day
The market moved 1,000 points in one day.
Berkshire Hathaway reports results today. Jobless rate is expected to remain at 9.7%. (Spain's is 20)
The oil spill has worsened. How does off shore drilling around the U.S. look now? Yet again, we had put our "greed" before even the logic of what could happen.
1 in 12 commercially prepared meals in the world is by McDonalds.
And now, after 11 weeks of euphoria, our economists are calling for an end to the world, and the end of a good economy because the Dow had dipped to 10,659 by 2.03 p.m. and further on.
Traders in our OEX MAY 2010 515.0000 PUT were able to buy below prior day close as low as 4.66 and by 2 pm. EST sold for a 55% return, and by later in the day was up 113%
So, we'll lose on the call today, but we made some huge money on puts and calls this week. Let's play it safe and simply stay out of the market tomorrow. Let the bottom find itself.
Why does a market fall over 350 points? What causes it? The answer: triggers lead the catalyst, but the consolidation was long overdue and is healthy for the market......if it stops.
Friday before Mother's Day, Dow up 9 of last 14
Berkshire Hathaway reports results today. Jobless rate is expected to remain at 9.7%. (Spain's is 20)
The oil spill has worsened. How does off shore drilling around the U.S. look now? Yet again, we had put our "greed" before even the logic of what could happen.
1 in 12 commercially prepared meals in the world is by McDonalds.
And now, after 11 weeks of euphoria, our economists are calling for an end to the world, and the end of a good economy because the Dow had dipped to 10,659 by 2.03 p.m. and further on.
Traders in our OEX MAY 2010 515.0000 PUT were able to buy below prior day close as low as 4.66 and by 2 pm. EST sold for a 55% return, and by later in the day was up 113%
So, we'll lose on the call today, but we made some huge money on puts and calls this week. Let's play it safe and simply stay out of the market tomorrow. Let the bottom find itself.
Why does a market fall over 350 points? What causes it? The answer: triggers lead the catalyst, but the consolidation was long overdue and is healthy for the market......if it stops.
Friday before Mother's Day, Dow up 9 of last 14
God's Away On Business...
"If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion." - George Bernard Shaw
Well, we never bought calls and we watched the market show a true consolidation, moving down dramatically before noon. By 2.30 pm. we had hit theoretical Dow bottoms of 10,850. All of this is good. Follow our Dow projections and note the support lines that we think this consolidation will slow.
We will not enter a put for today based on the severity of the downturn, and what we think may be a gap up. Follow futures carefully
I truly love chartists. Here's what John Murphy with Stockcharts said today. Of course, until yesterday we were in a bull market, and now.....the end of the world may be coming:
1. GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES DROP AS BONDS RALLY -- NYSE INDEX BREAKS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EFA ISHARES FALL BELOW 200-DAY LINE
2. FALLING MATERIAL STOCK HELP PULL NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EAFE ISHARES VIOLATE 200-DAY LINE -- WEAKNESS IN CHINA STOCKS ARE ALSO WEIGHING ON COPPER -- TREASURY BOND PRICES ACHIEVE BULLISH -- VIX GAINS ANOTHER 20% AS STOCKS DROP
It is likely to have weakness in the market until late June. This is normal. But the moves after this may occur sooner than our normal fall sector change.
With this it will be key to watch our Dow projections as we follow support and resistance lines. Right now the ISM Manufacturing Index, coming out today, should show signs of inching up, a signs of a recovering economy.
Timer Warner reports before the market opens. Analysts think it will show upside.
___________________________________
For those of your conflicted about the "great greed" of Wall Street, I hope the following article opens your eyes, as the greed is in our blood. We need a transfusion.
From The New York Times:
Who Knew Bankruptcy Paid So Well?
Bankruptcy specialists have been enjoying an unprecedented boom, but some fees are raising eyebrows.
http://nyti.ms/a3vLYH
Well, we never bought calls and we watched the market show a true consolidation, moving down dramatically before noon. By 2.30 pm. we had hit theoretical Dow bottoms of 10,850. All of this is good. Follow our Dow projections and note the support lines that we think this consolidation will slow.
We will not enter a put for today based on the severity of the downturn, and what we think may be a gap up. Follow futures carefully
I truly love chartists. Here's what John Murphy with Stockcharts said today. Of course, until yesterday we were in a bull market, and now.....the end of the world may be coming:
1. GLOBAL STOCKS AND COMMODITIES DROP AS BONDS RALLY -- NYSE INDEX BREAKS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EFA ISHARES FALL BELOW 200-DAY LINE
2. FALLING MATERIAL STOCK HELP PULL NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX BELOW 50-DAY AVERAGE -- EAFE ISHARES VIOLATE 200-DAY LINE -- WEAKNESS IN CHINA STOCKS ARE ALSO WEIGHING ON COPPER -- TREASURY BOND PRICES ACHIEVE BULLISH -- VIX GAINS ANOTHER 20% AS STOCKS DROP
It is likely to have weakness in the market until late June. This is normal. But the moves after this may occur sooner than our normal fall sector change.
With this it will be key to watch our Dow projections as we follow support and resistance lines. Right now the ISM Manufacturing Index, coming out today, should show signs of inching up, a signs of a recovering economy.
Timer Warner reports before the market opens. Analysts think it will show upside.
___________________________________
For those of your conflicted about the "great greed" of Wall Street, I hope the following article opens your eyes, as the greed is in our blood. We need a transfusion.
From The New York Times:
Who Knew Bankruptcy Paid So Well?
Bankruptcy specialists have been enjoying an unprecedented boom, but some fees are raising eyebrows.
http://nyti.ms/a3vLYH
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Pay No Attention to Bid/Ask
"We are all born originals; why is it so many die copies." - Edward Young
We were unable to enter our call recommendation yesterday early because of the fast gap up we saw in the first hour of trading. By 10.30 the Dow had hit a theoretical top of 11,150, just over our resistance lines. However, traders that had orders in prior to opening were able to fill as low as 4.10 (below prior day close) and sell to 6.10 before the 3 p.m. hour.
And later in the day this call became a day trader's heaven, another example of falling in love with an option.
Gaining an option like this takes training. Traders MUST have orders in pre-market, and must follow the rules we create (not to pay above prior day close) and then must decide from the "mood of the market" if they want to offer a "best buy" price (dependent upon futures) or a slightly lower than prior day price. This is where it is very important to pay NO attention to bid/ask.
And each trader must interpret how he or she will "play from my recommendation. As an example, for Advanced Mentoring client MS: " Our call went well for me today - Bought at 4.90, made double second buy at 4.20 and sold to 6.10"
Study our article or movie on Being A Fruit Vendor: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/fruit.html
In doing so you will see that Floyd sees options as only "instruments of movement" and not something that has any real value. And if you think of it, OEX options do not. They are a zen or chess trading game, and not a science. This is the most common misunderstanding about trading options.
15% of the gross domestic product represented by 2009 federal taxes is actually lower when compared with post Word-War II averages of 18%
Our Great Recession, in other words, is this time not caused by war but by the greed of many generations.
Euronet and Mastercard report earnings today. Arthur Hill with StockCharts.com posts below on Sunday where he sees the Fib retracement and what could happen.
A Floydian Thought: Most people are in the continual process of transcending fear based rituals
We were unable to enter our call recommendation yesterday early because of the fast gap up we saw in the first hour of trading. By 10.30 the Dow had hit a theoretical top of 11,150, just over our resistance lines. However, traders that had orders in prior to opening were able to fill as low as 4.10 (below prior day close) and sell to 6.10 before the 3 p.m. hour.
And later in the day this call became a day trader's heaven, another example of falling in love with an option.
Gaining an option like this takes training. Traders MUST have orders in pre-market, and must follow the rules we create (not to pay above prior day close) and then must decide from the "mood of the market" if they want to offer a "best buy" price (dependent upon futures) or a slightly lower than prior day price. This is where it is very important to pay NO attention to bid/ask.
And each trader must interpret how he or she will "play from my recommendation. As an example, for Advanced Mentoring client MS: " Our call went well for me today - Bought at 4.90, made double second buy at 4.20 and sold to 6.10"
Study our article or movie on Being A Fruit Vendor: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/fruit.html
In doing so you will see that Floyd sees options as only "instruments of movement" and not something that has any real value. And if you think of it, OEX options do not. They are a zen or chess trading game, and not a science. This is the most common misunderstanding about trading options.
15% of the gross domestic product represented by 2009 federal taxes is actually lower when compared with post Word-War II averages of 18%
Our Great Recession, in other words, is this time not caused by war but by the greed of many generations.
Euronet and Mastercard report earnings today. Arthur Hill with StockCharts.com posts below on Sunday where he sees the Fib retracement and what could happen.
A Floydian Thought: Most people are in the continual process of transcending fear based rituals
Monday, May 3, 2010
Exhausting Consolidation
The whipsaw we have seen this past week has allowed great profits, and an exhausting consolidation where we move near the 11,000 mark repeatedly, only to move up again.
I'll make this simple:
1. Some chartists see a fall to 10,746 (Fib retracement) to 10,850.
2. Some top analysts see a fall to just under 11,000 several times, before more upside to near 11,600
3. Some chartists see the upside to 11,374 and a drop of 584 average points. (10,790-near the retracement)
Today March consumption, personal income, construction spending and the April ISM index factor are all announced. Analysts see all coming in flat.
Tomorrow UBS and Mastercard report.
Tea Party folks and anti Obamaites may be having a bit of a problem seeing the banks pay off TARP, GM paying down debt, Chrysler showing a profit, and the stock market up.
These folks may have trouble understanding what has been accomplished, and not yet even understand that it is NOT a corrupt generation that created this, but instead a corrupt public and business model; we the public being as guilty as those that misled us legally.
We open the week with no open signals.
I'll make this simple:
1. Some chartists see a fall to 10,746 (Fib retracement) to 10,850.
2. Some top analysts see a fall to just under 11,000 several times, before more upside to near 11,600
3. Some chartists see the upside to 11,374 and a drop of 584 average points. (10,790-near the retracement)
Today March consumption, personal income, construction spending and the April ISM index factor are all announced. Analysts see all coming in flat.
Tomorrow UBS and Mastercard report.
Tea Party folks and anti Obamaites may be having a bit of a problem seeing the banks pay off TARP, GM paying down debt, Chrysler showing a profit, and the stock market up.
These folks may have trouble understanding what has been accomplished, and not yet even understand that it is NOT a corrupt generation that created this, but instead a corrupt public and business model; we the public being as guilty as those that misled us legally.
We open the week with no open signals.
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