My goal was to make $5000.00 this week at OEX, and to quit by Wednesday noon. All I focused on, at home in Florida, sitting by the pool, was futures in the morning, general news on Bloomberg online, and the news with Brian Williams. I read no papers, and had no TV on for newsbites.
I sold 26 Dec440C for profits of 4346.00 yesterday, on the fourth day I had owned, and bought 2 Dec350P at 6.80 on Monday, doubled down, at sold at 7.40. The Dec440C I bought again at 10.90 on Tuesday, and sold same day for 13.00, netting 1260.00, and I made a quick buck of profits on the put....hitting my 5k goal for the week, and out. All three trades were profitable, and I did not make too much money. If I had held out on the 440C on Monday I "could have made" 18,000, but it is this type of thinking that breeds "GREED" and I never want to earn too much in such a short time. It's too risky.
I do not often talk about my trades, but yours. I list testimonials from subscribers, but in the case above my point is this:
1. I did not believe anything that anyone said. I just listened or read, and smiled.
2. I focused on a goal.
3. I used support/resistance and Dow projections and "worked for in/out trades." I was not greedy. I made fast decisions.
During this I knew that Obama picked a cracker jack economic team, and that Paulson came on TV and babbled about what he is doing (a trader in charge of our U.S. net worth, amazing), and Bloomberg costed out our promises to date to 7.6 trillion, not even a reality to any of us, and truly a nation now in debt to rehabilitate.
In recent weeks I've moved to the transpersonal nature of my work, which is knowing YOU, and understanding what REALLY is, not the silly half realities of Congress and the House pork bellying to get the 700 billion, or McCain "flying back." Note now that the reality is far changed, that the facts are constantly changing.
Proof may be in Citi, which 3 months ago was going to BUY bankrupt Wachovia, and now will take 300 billion plus from us to just stay afloat.
The lies are so insidious, I believe, and we are caught in so much "ballyhoo" that the real realities escape us.
In coming days I'll be sharing more of Floydism thinking, how to calm in a market, how to laugh at the facts, how to question what you have been taught. Some comments from our subscribers:
"Great writings. Your writings over the past week have been well worth the subscription fee alone. I've done more questioning of beliefs and what I've been taught in the last 2 weeks, than I have in my 29 year life.
Thanks,
Mike"
And from TP in Oregon:
"Is their more then one answer to the Rock subject?"
The answer is yes, and all are right. It is how we see something that makes it as it is. It is when we are absolute in our fact of this that we create war, and religion."
And then TP wrote again:
"Once you say a rock is hard then it can not ever be anything else easily. When you settle for a truth, it will be hard to change. :) When God talks to you, how do you know its God? Be like water, have no shape. The more I know the more I know I don't know. There ya go.."
What we know is what we both want to believe, and have been told. The very FACT that we only know so much is proof of what we do not know.
Thanks for being our subscribers. Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours. We will be back with you Monday, December 1st, 2008, with NO alert on Friday
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The Only Indisputable Fact is That There is No Fact
Worry does not exist. We create the emotion, create the body reaction (long and short term) and argue with ourselves on what there is to worry about. If I throw a rock at you and you see it, your perception will be altered, and your fear and dread will rise. This will manifest in adrenalin rushes.
But it is not truly real, as one could see the rock coming and "not care" (it is possible) and have no fear, only calm.
We are thusly what we decide and choose to "be, see, or experience."
The only indisputable fact is that there is no fact, only our definition that there is such a thing. A rock is NOT necessarily hard.
Metaphysical study is critical to the trader, as it is our perception (individually and collectively) that creates cause and effect.
As an example, to a religious person it is indisputable that there is a God. But there is no fact of this, only interpretation of fact. There is no physical proof of a higher being, only our desire that there be one, or our interpretation of doctrines and examples.
Religious people will argue, and are wrong. It is unprovable. Atheists and non religious people will argue factually or in anger, and are also wrong. They do NOT know there is no God, they choose to believe that there is not one, and that no fact can be proven that there is.
This means both are wrong. So, is there a God, or are we God? Or is there no God. Or, is there only one God. This "false fact" thinking is the stuff of persecution and wars. Assuming there is a God, I'm sure she's smiling at us as we struggle with our training wheels.
From the Stock Traders Almanac:
TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
“For 35 years, trading the Dow Jones Industrials using the combination of the Wed before Thanksgiving and the Friday after had a great track record, except for 2 occasions. But publishing it in 1987 was the “kiss of death and Wednesday-Friday since 1988 lost 7 of 19 times versus a Wednesday-Monday with only 5 losses. The best strategy appears to be coming into the week long and exiting into strength Friday or Monday.”
And, from the market. Citi got bailed out. Now homebuilders want a bail out, and the auto industry is still asking. I continue to see 2 trillion spent before this crisis is over, and more dollars printed to do it, and a much larger deficit. Obama has his job just now managing the crisis that was created.
The market loves any good news, being classically overextended, and took a nice ride up Monday, allowing our Dec440Calls to sell to high of 15.20, the Dow hitting 8600++. Late afternoon Monday we issued a high risk trade to the put, that may require second buys, and that anticipates a negative retail weekend.
Meanwhile, we'll project Dow tops with more upside pre-holiday, making note the market diminishes in volume pre Thanksgiving, is closed for Thanksgiving, and is simply NOT worth trading Wednesday noon one. We're building a higher risk put trade on bad retail data, and on what "could" be tops.
And a rant from my 26 year old daughter:
I'm angry. I worked hard through high school and earned a full scholarship to college, and immediately after college I used the money my parents and I had saved for those first four years to pay my way through graduate school while I began my first year teaching. I'm now in my fourth year teaching (which I drive to in my fuel efficient, money saving Honda Civic Hybrid), work my father here at the OEX, as well as tutor on the side. By living frugally and working hard I've managed to do something seemingly unheard of nowadays - I live within my means. I have a total of one credit card, which is paid off in full every month and I own everything that is in my apartment. I'm a hardworking citizen who has done everything I'm supposed to - pay my taxes, and do my part for this country by educating children every single day. And I'm angry. I'm angry that these CEOs at banks and auto companies alike are not being called out for their corruption and inefficiency. I am angry that we have to save them to save this economy and that they won't stand up, take responsibility, and say sorry. I tell my students everyday to take ownership for their actions, but how will I teach them the proper behavior when everywhere they look they see that it's fine to misbehave and mess up without taking responsibility? So, I will go to work tomorrow in my fuel efficient car and show my students again and again how to properly take ownership for your actions - the good and the bad. Hopefully I'll never have to be this angry again, because maybe the one thing we can all learn from this debacle is to take ownership of our actions.
But it is not truly real, as one could see the rock coming and "not care" (it is possible) and have no fear, only calm.
We are thusly what we decide and choose to "be, see, or experience."
The only indisputable fact is that there is no fact, only our definition that there is such a thing. A rock is NOT necessarily hard.
Metaphysical study is critical to the trader, as it is our perception (individually and collectively) that creates cause and effect.
As an example, to a religious person it is indisputable that there is a God. But there is no fact of this, only interpretation of fact. There is no physical proof of a higher being, only our desire that there be one, or our interpretation of doctrines and examples.
Religious people will argue, and are wrong. It is unprovable. Atheists and non religious people will argue factually or in anger, and are also wrong. They do NOT know there is no God, they choose to believe that there is not one, and that no fact can be proven that there is.
This means both are wrong. So, is there a God, or are we God? Or is there no God. Or, is there only one God. This "false fact" thinking is the stuff of persecution and wars. Assuming there is a God, I'm sure she's smiling at us as we struggle with our training wheels.
From the Stock Traders Almanac:
TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
“For 35 years, trading the Dow Jones Industrials using the combination of the Wed before Thanksgiving and the Friday after had a great track record, except for 2 occasions. But publishing it in 1987 was the “kiss of death and Wednesday-Friday since 1988 lost 7 of 19 times versus a Wednesday-Monday with only 5 losses. The best strategy appears to be coming into the week long and exiting into strength Friday or Monday.”
And, from the market. Citi got bailed out. Now homebuilders want a bail out, and the auto industry is still asking. I continue to see 2 trillion spent before this crisis is over, and more dollars printed to do it, and a much larger deficit. Obama has his job just now managing the crisis that was created.
The market loves any good news, being classically overextended, and took a nice ride up Monday, allowing our Dec440Calls to sell to high of 15.20, the Dow hitting 8600++. Late afternoon Monday we issued a high risk trade to the put, that may require second buys, and that anticipates a negative retail weekend.
Meanwhile, we'll project Dow tops with more upside pre-holiday, making note the market diminishes in volume pre Thanksgiving, is closed for Thanksgiving, and is simply NOT worth trading Wednesday noon one. We're building a higher risk put trade on bad retail data, and on what "could" be tops.
And a rant from my 26 year old daughter:
I'm angry. I worked hard through high school and earned a full scholarship to college, and immediately after college I used the money my parents and I had saved for those first four years to pay my way through graduate school while I began my first year teaching. I'm now in my fourth year teaching (which I drive to in my fuel efficient, money saving Honda Civic Hybrid), work my father here at the OEX, as well as tutor on the side. By living frugally and working hard I've managed to do something seemingly unheard of nowadays - I live within my means. I have a total of one credit card, which is paid off in full every month and I own everything that is in my apartment. I'm a hardworking citizen who has done everything I'm supposed to - pay my taxes, and do my part for this country by educating children every single day. And I'm angry. I'm angry that these CEOs at banks and auto companies alike are not being called out for their corruption and inefficiency. I am angry that we have to save them to save this economy and that they won't stand up, take responsibility, and say sorry. I tell my students everyday to take ownership for their actions, but how will I teach them the proper behavior when everywhere they look they see that it's fine to misbehave and mess up without taking responsibility? So, I will go to work tomorrow in my fuel efficient car and show my students again and again how to properly take ownership for your actions - the good and the bad. Hopefully I'll never have to be this angry again, because maybe the one thing we can all learn from this debacle is to take ownership of our actions.
Monday, November 24, 2008
The Collapse of Ginko Financial
In my metaphysical dialogues on "what do you want" trader Mike got it:
"I finally got your rock analogy. A rock is only hard, because of my perception and what I've been taught.
So in a sense I'm nobody, not rich, not poor - I'm just the perception of myself. That's mind boggling.......almost scary.
Seems like a circle is formed. So if I'm only my pereception, then what I am I? Does it even matter?"
It does matter. More importantly, what matters is the realization one must have that "what we perceive to be real" is only our perception at that moment.
Here's an example. Close your eyes and think of a red rose. Visualize it. Now open your eyes. Can you remember what you saw? Of course, you can. But, if we were to give you an MRI right that moment, a full brain scan, we would find NO record or direct memory of a "red rose", only electrical impulses, light, and cells. Where is the red rose? Was it not "visualized"?
Religious people will say we do know, and that this is "wrong" thinking. Scientists will say that we only can't see the rose in the MRI because we are not yet advanced enough to see all we should see. Floydians will say that what we saw was consciousness, outside of our brains, and that it was our consciousness (outside of our body and minds) that "created the vision" of the red rose.
All of us are right. Those that believe only "they are right" are the absolutists, and these see "facts" as indisputable, and non corruptible. These are those with limited visions, that cannot believe there can be anything outside of what they believe (doctrines), have been taught (opinion and partial facts), or choose to believe.
Smart traders see beyond "false facts" or "what is" to understand that "what is" is only what you see".
____
We hit our lowest lows in 11 years last Thursday. Be sure to be healthy in your anger, but have it. Place blame. Think out what and who caused this, and HOW you were a part of it. Learn from the experience. As an example, 4 years ago Bushy re-elected on "fear of terrorism", and "fighting our mortal enemies, the evil ones" and America fell for it hook, line, and sinker.
Think what would have happened if Gore had become President 8 years ago. What would be different? Would it be better? Worse?
As you blame Wall Street, study health industry companies. How have they done during the 8 year "end of health insurance" of our last administration. Why are drugs cheaper in Canada than the U.S.? Why could we spend trillions in Iraq, and they now want us out, and not created a controlled health care system that does not bankrupt our citizenry and corporations? Why was waterboarding allowed? Why was wiretapping allowed? What did it accomplish?
This is the basic "lack of respect" and questioning of authority that must take place. If the young people in Germany had questioned authority, rather than blindly following their parents, Hitler may not have gained power.
The parallels are in our ability to "believe" and be "led" blindly, and our justification of false facts (such as "even though there were no WMD in Iraq Saddam was evil so it good that we destroyed him". The logic is faulty, but the patriotism makes the logic secondary, and patriotism is a way of thinking, and an emotion.
____
By mid December we believe the hedge funds will have cashed out, and they have led this severe decline, cashing out to cover the world cashing out on them. Fear is rampant. We believe another bottom test highly likely, after some upsurge (or vice versa) before market update swings.
And, from Mike Gibbons, at Breakoutwatch.com, who has good perceptions of the market:
The markets rallied strongly on Friday after the news that Tim Geithner would become Treasury Secretary. We can hope that the rally continues into next week as the rest of the Obama economics team is announced. At least Geithner already has an influential job as President of the New York Fed and can therefore have a strong influence on policy makers during the interregnum. Whether or not that influence will be positive remains to be seen. As a member of the Troika (Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner) that have been in charge of managing the fiasco so far I doubt this is change we can believe in. That aside, perception is all important in restoring confidence, so we must hope that the perception in the markets will continue to be that he is someone who can make a positive difference.
Before Friday's rally the markets set a new low and the trend of lower lows and lower highs continues as the markets continue to search for a bottom. A money manager I respect told me "My take is that after the hedge funds are finished their forced selling, hopefully by mid December, the selling pressure will be off and some sideline money will come back into the market." He thinks money will rotate into deep value stocks (but he's a value investor) and the ensuing short squeeze will force hedge funds to cover their shorts providing a massive rally. There is certainly money on the sidelines nervous that it will miss the rapid upswing, and many shorts afraid of being squeezed, as demonstrated by the intraday moves of 10-14% recently. AAII data shows that individual investors have reduced their allocations to stocks to well below the 60% long term mean and when that money comes flooding back we are likely to see many breakouts move rapidly to the upside.
Finally, a bit of insight from the "youth" side of this operation, my 26 year old daughter:
Much of what has been seen in our markets recently was observed first on the internet, economists claim. The 2007 collapse of Ginko Financial, a virtual investment bank located in the online game "Second Life" was primarily due to the unfettered, unregulated capitalism. People opened accounts within this virtual bank, which was claiming the money would earn an astronomical interest rate of more than 40%. Eventually panicked investors began withdrawing their virtual money, at a rate of roughly 250 Linden dollars to one U.S. dollar, yet the bank did not have the reserves to pay up. By the end of the crash, nearly $750,000 in actual U.S. dollars were gone, and players who had legally paid U.S. dollars for their Linden dollars were hit hard. "Second Life" is an interesting version of gaming in which players are actually entrepreneurs who have access to virtual tools with which they can actually create their own products, services, buildings, and more. Supply and demand exists within this virtual world and parallels our own very closely. Certainly, this virtual land is one to watch as it teaches us much about free markets running unregulated.
"I finally got your rock analogy. A rock is only hard, because of my perception and what I've been taught.
So in a sense I'm nobody, not rich, not poor - I'm just the perception of myself. That's mind boggling.......almost scary.
Seems like a circle is formed. So if I'm only my pereception, then what I am I? Does it even matter?"
It does matter. More importantly, what matters is the realization one must have that "what we perceive to be real" is only our perception at that moment.
Here's an example. Close your eyes and think of a red rose. Visualize it. Now open your eyes. Can you remember what you saw? Of course, you can. But, if we were to give you an MRI right that moment, a full brain scan, we would find NO record or direct memory of a "red rose", only electrical impulses, light, and cells. Where is the red rose? Was it not "visualized"?
Religious people will say we do know, and that this is "wrong" thinking. Scientists will say that we only can't see the rose in the MRI because we are not yet advanced enough to see all we should see. Floydians will say that what we saw was consciousness, outside of our brains, and that it was our consciousness (outside of our body and minds) that "created the vision" of the red rose.
All of us are right. Those that believe only "they are right" are the absolutists, and these see "facts" as indisputable, and non corruptible. These are those with limited visions, that cannot believe there can be anything outside of what they believe (doctrines), have been taught (opinion and partial facts), or choose to believe.
Smart traders see beyond "false facts" or "what is" to understand that "what is" is only what you see".
____
We hit our lowest lows in 11 years last Thursday. Be sure to be healthy in your anger, but have it. Place blame. Think out what and who caused this, and HOW you were a part of it. Learn from the experience. As an example, 4 years ago Bushy re-elected on "fear of terrorism", and "fighting our mortal enemies, the evil ones" and America fell for it hook, line, and sinker.
Think what would have happened if Gore had become President 8 years ago. What would be different? Would it be better? Worse?
As you blame Wall Street, study health industry companies. How have they done during the 8 year "end of health insurance" of our last administration. Why are drugs cheaper in Canada than the U.S.? Why could we spend trillions in Iraq, and they now want us out, and not created a controlled health care system that does not bankrupt our citizenry and corporations? Why was waterboarding allowed? Why was wiretapping allowed? What did it accomplish?
This is the basic "lack of respect" and questioning of authority that must take place. If the young people in Germany had questioned authority, rather than blindly following their parents, Hitler may not have gained power.
The parallels are in our ability to "believe" and be "led" blindly, and our justification of false facts (such as "even though there were no WMD in Iraq Saddam was evil so it good that we destroyed him". The logic is faulty, but the patriotism makes the logic secondary, and patriotism is a way of thinking, and an emotion.
____
By mid December we believe the hedge funds will have cashed out, and they have led this severe decline, cashing out to cover the world cashing out on them. Fear is rampant. We believe another bottom test highly likely, after some upsurge (or vice versa) before market update swings.
And, from Mike Gibbons, at Breakoutwatch.com, who has good perceptions of the market:
The markets rallied strongly on Friday after the news that Tim Geithner would become Treasury Secretary. We can hope that the rally continues into next week as the rest of the Obama economics team is announced. At least Geithner already has an influential job as President of the New York Fed and can therefore have a strong influence on policy makers during the interregnum. Whether or not that influence will be positive remains to be seen. As a member of the Troika (Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner) that have been in charge of managing the fiasco so far I doubt this is change we can believe in. That aside, perception is all important in restoring confidence, so we must hope that the perception in the markets will continue to be that he is someone who can make a positive difference.
Before Friday's rally the markets set a new low and the trend of lower lows and lower highs continues as the markets continue to search for a bottom. A money manager I respect told me "My take is that after the hedge funds are finished their forced selling, hopefully by mid December, the selling pressure will be off and some sideline money will come back into the market." He thinks money will rotate into deep value stocks (but he's a value investor) and the ensuing short squeeze will force hedge funds to cover their shorts providing a massive rally. There is certainly money on the sidelines nervous that it will miss the rapid upswing, and many shorts afraid of being squeezed, as demonstrated by the intraday moves of 10-14% recently. AAII data shows that individual investors have reduced their allocations to stocks to well below the 60% long term mean and when that money comes flooding back we are likely to see many breakouts move rapidly to the upside.
Finally, a bit of insight from the "youth" side of this operation, my 26 year old daughter:
Much of what has been seen in our markets recently was observed first on the internet, economists claim. The 2007 collapse of Ginko Financial, a virtual investment bank located in the online game "Second Life" was primarily due to the unfettered, unregulated capitalism. People opened accounts within this virtual bank, which was claiming the money would earn an astronomical interest rate of more than 40%. Eventually panicked investors began withdrawing their virtual money, at a rate of roughly 250 Linden dollars to one U.S. dollar, yet the bank did not have the reserves to pay up. By the end of the crash, nearly $750,000 in actual U.S. dollars were gone, and players who had legally paid U.S. dollars for their Linden dollars were hit hard. "Second Life" is an interesting version of gaming in which players are actually entrepreneurs who have access to virtual tools with which they can actually create their own products, services, buildings, and more. Supply and demand exists within this virtual world and parallels our own very closely. Certainly, this virtual land is one to watch as it teaches us much about free markets running unregulated.
Friday, November 21, 2008
You Never See Yourself Die in a Dream
According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is.
It is our perception that a rock is hard. It is NOT a reality. The sooner you can see this, the more you fight the logic that "of course the rock is hard" the faster you can become who you are, seeing rather than just believing.
______
Some analysis of stocks shows the S&P 09 earnings averaging at $87 a share. Under worsening conditions this could move to $67.00 a share, suggesting that stocks are now becoming a bargain.
There is a premise here however that S&P consensus yield is 8% (averaged shares), and could hit 10% if the S &P 500 falls to 680. Smart economists, or Floydian disciples, believe that stock prices are becoming a bargain, but will have more opportunity at lower prices, WHEN earnings forecasts, built on optimism
Many traders wrote yesterday with the FEAR that the market will drop below 7700, and follow all the chartists doomsaying predictions of a Dow drop to 6400 or less. Magazines and newspapers now show pictures of Warren Buffet looking worried and predict the Great Depression 2.
Fear leads our market.
Theoretically we believe there is a 40% chance of a market downturn to the 7200 or lower area, not because fundamentals aren't strong, or because stocks are too expensive, but simply on babbling FEAR and doomsayers.
The lack of a Detroit automakers bail out is affecting the market in fear, and the idiot CEOS show up on private planes to ask for money. Sigh. Of course, Congress does not understand anything, Paulson lied on the 700 billion, and the financial services industry is in turmoil.
What to do? Either stop trading, or take straddle trades, and tight profits. This is a market even the market does not really understand.
We leave an open signal to the call, instructed below. The Dec300P hit lows of 5.05 in early trading and could have sold to highs of 10.00, for yet another profitable day. We will hold calls thru next Wednesday.
WE are now led as much by fear as reality.
Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.
You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is.
It is our perception that a rock is hard. It is NOT a reality. The sooner you can see this, the more you fight the logic that "of course the rock is hard" the faster you can become who you are, seeing rather than just believing.
______
Some analysis of stocks shows the S&P 09 earnings averaging at $87 a share. Under worsening conditions this could move to $67.00 a share, suggesting that stocks are now becoming a bargain.
There is a premise here however that S&P consensus yield is 8% (averaged shares), and could hit 10% if the S &P 500 falls to 680. Smart economists, or Floydian disciples, believe that stock prices are becoming a bargain, but will have more opportunity at lower prices, WHEN earnings forecasts, built on optimism
Many traders wrote yesterday with the FEAR that the market will drop below 7700, and follow all the chartists doomsaying predictions of a Dow drop to 6400 or less. Magazines and newspapers now show pictures of Warren Buffet looking worried and predict the Great Depression 2.
Fear leads our market.
Theoretically we believe there is a 40% chance of a market downturn to the 7200 or lower area, not because fundamentals aren't strong, or because stocks are too expensive, but simply on babbling FEAR and doomsayers.
The lack of a Detroit automakers bail out is affecting the market in fear, and the idiot CEOS show up on private planes to ask for money. Sigh. Of course, Congress does not understand anything, Paulson lied on the 700 billion, and the financial services industry is in turmoil.
What to do? Either stop trading, or take straddle trades, and tight profits. This is a market even the market does not really understand.
We leave an open signal to the call, instructed below. The Dec300P hit lows of 5.05 in early trading and could have sold to highs of 10.00, for yet another profitable day. We will hold calls thru next Wednesday.
WE are now led as much by fear as reality.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Doomsayers Predict Moves to 6400
The man who was mentioned in my commentary yesterday, the one who wanted to be a beachcomber, quit his job, moved to Florida with his wife, and he took "his new job." His wife found other employment in the new city.
Today, ten years from the interview, he "beachcombs" an area of a Northern Florida beach, has a small "chair and windsurfer" business on the beach, and trades OEX options once a week. He makes a bit more money than he did make, and he's healthy and happy.
It's a happy story ONLY because he made a decision he wanted to make, and changed his life to accommodate his desires.
Doing what you want may lengthen, or shorten, your life. Either answer is good.
Doing what you don't want, and repeating it, is what we all seem to choose to do, and it makes us stressed, miserable, and "acting out" in unhappiness. You are what you decide. This could be the most important self help statement you'll ever read.
What you WANT does not mean "buying stuff" or possessions. It means learning who you are and what you WANT TO BE AND DO.
____
As you learn about yourself much of what you are learning is the undoing of what you have been told, and have created about yourself. For example, many dog lovers know that dogs are powerless and innocent, and it is how we treat the humblest amongst us that dominates our souls.
Often loving a dog is an opportunity for a lost or selfish human heart to be redeemed.
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in the Zen of Trading. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
_____
Conservatives, for example must decide whether they really believe in less government or if they think the government should control every uterus. When we control in issues that are "not controllable" we waste.
My favorite example is our "just say no to drugs" from dear Nancy Reagan. Any psychologist alive laughed out loud at the commentary, as it breeds the exact opposite of what we want. Instead, WHY do people use drugs?
It is this lack of logic to this thinking that destroys true policies.
And lastly, more doomsayers talk on moves to 6400:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27799264
The market yesterday hit 7847, and highs of 8550. We entered a new position to the Dec440C.
Study our Dow projections carefully, we're re-editing steps. Doomsayers see a stronger and deeper downturn. Floyd believes there will be an automotive bail out of some sorts, and that there is a 60% liklihood of more bottom testing, but not for a long period. Although I am not bullish, nor am I bearish, and believe the analysts may be creating the negative hype. Truly NOTHING is good economically, I realize, but a bail out or any "good news" may build a short term euphoria. We'll list a put for trading today, but note again the extreme conditions of the buy.
____
It is interesting to note, of course, that the CEOs of the Big Three chose to fly to Washington in private corporate jets to beg for the $25 billion in public money. The estimate for the private flight for the GM CEO was roughly $20,000 dollars round trip. Notice the lack of intelligent and personal responsibility these CEOs are showing by burning through this money, money that easily could be used for their ailing companies.
Today, ten years from the interview, he "beachcombs" an area of a Northern Florida beach, has a small "chair and windsurfer" business on the beach, and trades OEX options once a week. He makes a bit more money than he did make, and he's healthy and happy.
It's a happy story ONLY because he made a decision he wanted to make, and changed his life to accommodate his desires.
Doing what you want may lengthen, or shorten, your life. Either answer is good.
Doing what you don't want, and repeating it, is what we all seem to choose to do, and it makes us stressed, miserable, and "acting out" in unhappiness. You are what you decide. This could be the most important self help statement you'll ever read.
What you WANT does not mean "buying stuff" or possessions. It means learning who you are and what you WANT TO BE AND DO.
____
As you learn about yourself much of what you are learning is the undoing of what you have been told, and have created about yourself. For example, many dog lovers know that dogs are powerless and innocent, and it is how we treat the humblest amongst us that dominates our souls.
Often loving a dog is an opportunity for a lost or selfish human heart to be redeemed.
When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.
Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.
This is the most true in the Zen of Trading. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.
_____
Conservatives, for example must decide whether they really believe in less government or if they think the government should control every uterus. When we control in issues that are "not controllable" we waste.
My favorite example is our "just say no to drugs" from dear Nancy Reagan. Any psychologist alive laughed out loud at the commentary, as it breeds the exact opposite of what we want. Instead, WHY do people use drugs?
It is this lack of logic to this thinking that destroys true policies.
And lastly, more doomsayers talk on moves to 6400:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27799264
The market yesterday hit 7847, and highs of 8550. We entered a new position to the Dec440C.
Study our Dow projections carefully, we're re-editing steps. Doomsayers see a stronger and deeper downturn. Floyd believes there will be an automotive bail out of some sorts, and that there is a 60% liklihood of more bottom testing, but not for a long period. Although I am not bullish, nor am I bearish, and believe the analysts may be creating the negative hype. Truly NOTHING is good economically, I realize, but a bail out or any "good news" may build a short term euphoria. We'll list a put for trading today, but note again the extreme conditions of the buy.
____
It is interesting to note, of course, that the CEOs of the Big Three chose to fly to Washington in private corporate jets to beg for the $25 billion in public money. The estimate for the private flight for the GM CEO was roughly $20,000 dollars round trip. Notice the lack of intelligent and personal responsibility these CEOs are showing by burning through this money, money that easily could be used for their ailing companies.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
A Man Came to Me Years Ago...
If we are not happy, we must know why. Most people spend their lives doing what they do not want, and wonder why they are unhappy. The key psychological question I ask of clients is this: What do you want?
Most answer with "things" or possessions, a simplistic answer that breeds the "I want what I want when I want it" thinking, and leads to possessions, which really make no one happy.
A man came to me years ago and I asked this question. He was a 40 year highly successful engineer in industrial plastics, married, no kids. His wife worked. After months of therapy my "what do you want" question led to a "real answer"...I want to be a guy that sells lawn chairs and stuff on a beach, and to work on the beach all day. "I want to be a beachcomber."
As you can imagine this was radical, hard on his thinking, and most likely something he would never do.
Thusly, I asked two questions:
1. Why can you not do what you want?
2. Why is this what you want?
Write me. What do you think he answered, what do you think he did, and what do you think the "point" to my questions were. Learning why and how will help you trade.
Why do you do things that you do not want to do?
As you trade, learn about you.
Now, to shift to what chartists see, and what the market "could do." I list below two commentaries. The first discusses "market lows," and the second defines who is helping Obama plan his Presidency. George Soros is one of Floyd's financial and philosophical idols and I'm pleased to see Obama enlist true thinkers that understand money and the world as he strategizes. The end of Cheney and Wolfowitz, and perhaps true world strategy thinking.
And to shift to yesterday. The market hit highs of 8517, and lows of 8065. All three of our trades, open and new, were profitable.
1. The Dec380P hit highs of 5.20
2. The Dec440C, a new buy, was available as low as 14.00, and hit 20.20.
3. The Dec480C, our open trade, hit highs of 7.00
We are three profitable trades for three with these issues, and have NO open positions to start the day.
Most answer with "things" or possessions, a simplistic answer that breeds the "I want what I want when I want it" thinking, and leads to possessions, which really make no one happy.
A man came to me years ago and I asked this question. He was a 40 year highly successful engineer in industrial plastics, married, no kids. His wife worked. After months of therapy my "what do you want" question led to a "real answer"...I want to be a guy that sells lawn chairs and stuff on a beach, and to work on the beach all day. "I want to be a beachcomber."
As you can imagine this was radical, hard on his thinking, and most likely something he would never do.
Thusly, I asked two questions:
1. Why can you not do what you want?
2. Why is this what you want?
Write me. What do you think he answered, what do you think he did, and what do you think the "point" to my questions were. Learning why and how will help you trade.
Why do you do things that you do not want to do?
As you trade, learn about you.
Now, to shift to what chartists see, and what the market "could do." I list below two commentaries. The first discusses "market lows," and the second defines who is helping Obama plan his Presidency. George Soros is one of Floyd's financial and philosophical idols and I'm pleased to see Obama enlist true thinkers that understand money and the world as he strategizes. The end of Cheney and Wolfowitz, and perhaps true world strategy thinking.
And to shift to yesterday. The market hit highs of 8517, and lows of 8065. All three of our trades, open and new, were profitable.
1. The Dec380P hit highs of 5.20
2. The Dec440C, a new buy, was available as low as 14.00, and hit 20.20.
3. The Dec480C, our open trade, hit highs of 7.00
We are three profitable trades for three with these issues, and have NO open positions to start the day.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Consumers and Businesses are Not Spending Enough
Because consumers and businesses are not spending enough money to keep the economy growing the government will clearly be required to do the spending itself. Neocons and Republicans will argue, stupidly, for "free enterprise reigning" and that "bail out will socialize our country". Logistically all of this is untrue.
We are a consumer spending driven economy, for whatever right or wrong reason. U.S. economist Jan Hatzius estimates that private spending will drop by at least 6% of GDP over the next two or year. To keep that retrenchment from yanking the economy downward into real depression, the government will have to step in. Recent supply side economic thinking has been that stimulus was pointless have been proven dead wrong. Supply siders argued that American citizens would see through it and restrict spending to prepare for tax increases or spending cuts. When Emperor Bush provided stimulus, however, in 2001 stimulus DID work short term, as Americans were not far sighted enough to figure out their taxes were being raised in other areas. Now, more and more Americans realize they were defrauded, and the tax incentives or "cuts" they received were fraudulent, as their own cost of goods (property , state, and sales taxes) rose, and the net cost of products they bought increased. In other words, we spend the money we get back paying off credit card debt,and not spending more.
It is very important we realize that this recession is not "from a book." Typically by the time economists historically agree a "recession" is defined it's half over. Now, we're faltering between recession and depression and almost all economists agree that we will have only a prolonged return to health, and many economists now have a changing definition of "health." This means they have no fricking idea what's going on.
The market yesterday hit highs of 8611, and lows of 8207. Study this range around your Dow projections. We continue to believe two way trades may be possible, with the put overextended, but another bottom test potentially occurring.
Lastly, I would like to build a bit of disrespect again. Remember slimey old Halliburton, the only bidder for Iraq reconstruction. Seemed fishy? Shameful?
Now watch the Bank of New York Mellon, which is acting as our restructuring agent for the government bail out. Note it was all done before Bushy left office, note that Paulson is worth 850 million and used to be an option trader.
Have suspicion and begin your due diligence. Analyze who some of the players are that the Republicans put in key positions to flow this money out. You'll begin to see a "game has been played", and it will now be up to Obama to sort out the slime.
We are a consumer spending driven economy, for whatever right or wrong reason. U.S. economist Jan Hatzius estimates that private spending will drop by at least 6% of GDP over the next two or year. To keep that retrenchment from yanking the economy downward into real depression, the government will have to step in. Recent supply side economic thinking has been that stimulus was pointless have been proven dead wrong. Supply siders argued that American citizens would see through it and restrict spending to prepare for tax increases or spending cuts. When Emperor Bush provided stimulus, however, in 2001 stimulus DID work short term, as Americans were not far sighted enough to figure out their taxes were being raised in other areas. Now, more and more Americans realize they were defrauded, and the tax incentives or "cuts" they received were fraudulent, as their own cost of goods (property , state, and sales taxes) rose, and the net cost of products they bought increased. In other words, we spend the money we get back paying off credit card debt,and not spending more.
It is very important we realize that this recession is not "from a book." Typically by the time economists historically agree a "recession" is defined it's half over. Now, we're faltering between recession and depression and almost all economists agree that we will have only a prolonged return to health, and many economists now have a changing definition of "health." This means they have no fricking idea what's going on.
The market yesterday hit highs of 8611, and lows of 8207. Study this range around your Dow projections. We continue to believe two way trades may be possible, with the put overextended, but another bottom test potentially occurring.
Lastly, I would like to build a bit of disrespect again. Remember slimey old Halliburton, the only bidder for Iraq reconstruction. Seemed fishy? Shameful?
Now watch the Bank of New York Mellon, which is acting as our restructuring agent for the government bail out. Note it was all done before Bushy left office, note that Paulson is worth 850 million and used to be an option trader.
Have suspicion and begin your due diligence. Analyze who some of the players are that the Republicans put in key positions to flow this money out. You'll begin to see a "game has been played", and it will now be up to Obama to sort out the slime.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Accountability Should be Escalated
There is much to think about. A market that begins capitulation, and rises almost 600 points in a day, after dropping 200, and the next day dropping 300 points, all in a 10 minute close sell off.
An economy in shatters. A government that has borrowed 700 billion from its citizens, and already changed the rules on where the money will go.
And on and on.
We are now a world led by fear, and the fear of money is affecting our psychological psyches. Smart citizens worldwide are fearful.
"Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., burning through cash as sales slump, would cost the government as much as $200 billion should the biggest U.S. automaker be forced to liquidate, a forecasting firm estimated.
A GM collapse would mean ``more aid to specific states like Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana, and more money into unemployment and extended benefits,''Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said yesterday in an interview.
Behravesh's projection of $100 billion to $200 billion in costs dwarfs the $25 billion industry bailout plan that will be debated in Congress next week to prop up Detroit-based GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. The drain on taxpayers from a rescue or a GM failure is a central issue for U.S. lawmakers."
Floyd-There is no choice here. If we let free enterprise reign each of our American car companies will bankrupt, sending ripples through the American economy we cannot imagine. Conservatives will argue that former tariffs or lack of tariffs allowed foreign cars to enter our mainstream; realists will compare a Toyota Camry Hybrid to a Chevy Tahoe, or better yet, the "I wanna be a soldier car", the Tahoe camouflaged as a a Hummer, to drive the city streets to buy bottled water, and we will know.
After Paulson is fired, in my dreams, each President and all senior executives of American car companies should be fired, and the executive level staffed with new faces. A true "board of directors" (what the U.S. is) would not allow the people that got us into this to remain. Accountability should be escalated.
An economy in shatters. A government that has borrowed 700 billion from its citizens, and already changed the rules on where the money will go.
And on and on.
We are now a world led by fear, and the fear of money is affecting our psychological psyches. Smart citizens worldwide are fearful.
"Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., burning through cash as sales slump, would cost the government as much as $200 billion should the biggest U.S. automaker be forced to liquidate, a forecasting firm estimated.
A GM collapse would mean ``more aid to specific states like Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana, and more money into unemployment and extended benefits,''Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts, said yesterday in an interview.
Behravesh's projection of $100 billion to $200 billion in costs dwarfs the $25 billion industry bailout plan that will be debated in Congress next week to prop up Detroit-based GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. The drain on taxpayers from a rescue or a GM failure is a central issue for U.S. lawmakers."
Floyd-There is no choice here. If we let free enterprise reign each of our American car companies will bankrupt, sending ripples through the American economy we cannot imagine. Conservatives will argue that former tariffs or lack of tariffs allowed foreign cars to enter our mainstream; realists will compare a Toyota Camry Hybrid to a Chevy Tahoe, or better yet, the "I wanna be a soldier car", the Tahoe camouflaged as a a Hummer, to drive the city streets to buy bottled water, and we will know.
After Paulson is fired, in my dreams, each President and all senior executives of American car companies should be fired, and the executive level staffed with new faces. A true "board of directors" (what the U.S. is) would not allow the people that got us into this to remain. Accountability should be escalated.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Metaphysics and Emotion
On to metaphysics and emotion. Here's a Floydian line to consider:
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of trading.
My 26 old daughter's perspective -
It's your commentary, but from the perspective of a woman growing up in the 1990s and 2000s there is plenty of hunter mentality in women nowadays. Nearly as much so as men. The problem is men don't see it yet and at some point it'll change a lot of this world. The perception of having this desire is what men see as being "manly," but women have always had it on some level and it's growing more and more every day - we just still know how to hide it and market it differently than men are used to seeing. Not that this is necessarily a good thing, but it definitely exists nowadays.
Nov
From The S and A Short Report, responding to the 400 point 11/13. Pay careful attention to the commentary on Paulson's great new "bait and switch program with our deficit dollar bailout.
"Wow. Yesterday was a remarkably brutal trading day.
My power went out shortly after Treasury Secretary Paulson finished explaining the Bait & Switch bailout program. So I didn't see much of the afternoon session.
I'm stunned by the carnage in the market.
The selling was broad based. It was pervasive. And it was relentless.
Of the 100 or so industry sectors, none were up on the day. It was a wholesale liquidation of everything. Financial stocks made new lows. Oil broke down. Gold and silver sold off. And many components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on the verge of becoming penny stocks.
Then, just to rub a little salt in the wound, after the close yesterday, Intel lowered revenue guidance. Business is weak in all areas and in all geographic regions.
The stock market futures sold off on the news. And I spent much of the early evening slapping myself on the back of the head for holding a few new long positions overnight.
But... there are some positive signs.
A tremendous amount of bullish pressure is building in many of the momentum indicators I follow. The S&P 500 is nearly 100 points below its 20-day exponential moving average – a magnet from which the index rarely strays more than 30 points. And the sentiment among CNBC anchors is as bearish as I've ever seen it.
All of this points to a bounce. And a bounce from this depressed level could yield 200 or so points on the S&P 500."
Gain a lack of respect. Paulson is worth 850 million, and ran a large brokerage. He is our Sec. of the Treasury. Bernanke is a college professor who has never had a real job. Greenspan is a disciple of Ayn Rand, and practiced supply side bubble economics. The Feds can't even define where the most pressing issues are, or what they have been. Congress actually thought they understood what they were voting on.
The Federal Reserve should be disbanded.
Let's hope that Obama has the smarts to fire these idiots and truly run this like a business. Shame on us for allowing this to happen.
QUESTION AUTHORITY. Here's why:
(CBS/AP) While the Bush administration shifts course on its $700 billion rescue plan, Congress is examining whether even bigger changes should be made in the program in light of the deteriorating economy and soaring mortgage foreclosures.
The debate may not be resolved until President-elect Barack Obama takes office on Jan. 20 and pursues policies for administering the rescue program that are likely to be more closely aligned with his Democratic allies in Congress.
In anticipation of the change of administrations, Democrats were holding hearings in both the House and Senate on Thursday examining various aspects of the most serious financial crisis to hit the country in 70 years.
That crisis was publically declared a recession on Thursday by a major global economic cooperative, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, of which the United States is one of 20 members.
The Paris-based OECD said in a statement that the economies of the U.S., Japan, and Europe were in recession, and the developed world's collective economy was on track to shrink 0.3 percent during 2009.
The House Oversight Committee was examining the role that hedge funds may have played in recent market turbulence. Among those scheduled to testify was billionaire investor George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will hear from executives of a number of financial institutions including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on the issue of how the government's $700 billion rescue effort is operating and particularly whether the government should be requiring more commitments on the use of the money to address rising mortgage foreclosure problems.
CBS News investigative correspondent Sharyl Attkisson reports that the massive tax-payer bailout of the banking system - sold to the American public as a transparent your tax dollars are buying massive shares in some of the nation's biggest and most successful banks - with virtually no strings attached. And that's all allowed under Congress' plan.
Attkisson and the CBS News investigative team decided to ask the banks directly what they are doing with Americans' tax money. Their responses were, on the whole, less than enlightening.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced Wednesday that the administration had decided to scrap what had originally been the centerpiece of the program - a proposal to buy troubled assets to get them off the books of banks as a way of promoting increased lending.
Instead, Paulson said the administration will proceed with an alternative plan to spend $250 billion to buy stock in the banks as a way of bolstering their financial situation and accomplishing the same goal - getting the institutions to return to more normal lending.
Despite shifting from the original plan, Paulson insisted he did not mislead Congress, reports CBS News business correspondent Anthony Mason.
I will never apologize for changing an approach or strategy when the facts change.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
"I will never apologize for changing an approach or strategy when the facts change," he said.
However, critics contend the administration should be imposing more restrictions on the stock purchases as a way of insuring that the banks will use the government resources to increase lending rather than just hoarding the cash or using it to acquire other banks or boost dividends for stockholders.
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said even with the changes in the rescue plan he was still disappointed in the administration's unwillingness to issue strict guidelines to ensure that participating firms use the funds to increase lending.
"In these difficult times, fear is still overwhelming confidence," Schumer told reporters on Tuesday.
More reports detailing the difficulties facing the economy were expected on Thursday with the Labor Department releasing its latest look at weekly applications for unemployment benefits, the Commerce Department reporting on the trade gap for September and the government reporting on the budget deficit for October.
The level of jobless claims was expected to remain at levels indicating the labor market is under severe strains, reflecting what many economists fear could be a deep and prolonged recession.
The government reported last Friday that the unemployment rate soared to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October as businesses cut another 240,000 jobs.
The trade deficit was expected to show some improvement, declining to $57 billion in September, compared to $59.1 billion in August, reflecting a big drop in the price of imported oil and a weakening economy, which is dampening demand for other imports.
The budget deficit, however, was expected to show a big increase in October, the first month of the new budget year, rising to $101.5 billion, compared to $57 billion in October 2007. The soaring costs of the bank rescue and the weak economy are expected to put the country on track to run up a record deficit for the current budget year of between $700 billion and $1 trillion, a staggering sum for a single year.
Despite its new flexibility, the administration said Wednesday it remains opposed to using the rescue fund to bail out the ailing auto industry or to provide guarantees for home loans, an idea that supporters contend offers the greatest hope for helping legions of Americans who are facing foreclosure.
Congressional Democrats felt otherwise on autos, and strongly. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid were pressing for quick passage of a major package for carmakers during a postelection session that begins next Tuesday, and one key House Democrat was putting together legislation that would send $25 billion in emergency loans to the beleaguered industry in exchange for a government ownership stake in the Big Three car companies.
But, if recent history is any judge, an auto industry bailout may not have the desired effect. In the 1990s, Japan tried the same thing, reports Mason.
"And what that resulted in that was this sort of quote unquote 'Zombie Economy,'" Steve Massocca, of Pacific Growth Equities, told CBS News. "You had these zombie companies that were kept alive simply by the fact that the government was able to support them."
The Bush administration has concluded that the bailout bill that passed earlier does not allow loans to the auto industry.
Paulson told reporters Wednesday that the administration was exploring the possibility of setting up a program in conjunction with the Federal Reserve that would provide support for the $1 trillion market in securities that fund such vital consumer products as credit cards, auto loans and students loans. About 40 percent of consumer credit is supplied through the sale of these securities that are backed by payments consumers make on their credit cards and other loans.
The administration has already spoken for all but $60 billion of the initial $350 billion supplied by Congress, including the $250 billion for direct stock purchases from banks and $40 billion for a new loan supplied on Monday to help stabilize troubled insurance giant American International Group.
And from subscribers:
1. MP: Great job on the 440 call...I hope those who had second buys yesterday made out OK today...did she go up enough?
I bought 1 today when the DOW hit 8200 for 4.50
I bought two more near 8000 for 2.85...had an average price of 3.40
Ending up spending a total of $1020...only to sell off all three separately about 2 hours later for a 60% total profit! Made $610 today and could have sold for an extra 2.00 profit but I cannot be greedy anymore! I thought I was being greedy when I held out for 60%! But the market was rising so fast that I was a little unsure about how to take profits. I think I did OK like you already said!
2. GE: NIce trade. Bought at 3.40, and sold at 14.50. What a market. Still hold partials.
3. Jean: You amaze me. You missed the downturn yesterday, but allowed us to buy at 5.00 averages and sell to 12.50, that's what I did. What a market
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of trading.
My 26 old daughter's perspective -
It's your commentary, but from the perspective of a woman growing up in the 1990s and 2000s there is plenty of hunter mentality in women nowadays. Nearly as much so as men. The problem is men don't see it yet and at some point it'll change a lot of this world. The perception of having this desire is what men see as being "manly," but women have always had it on some level and it's growing more and more every day - we just still know how to hide it and market it differently than men are used to seeing. Not that this is necessarily a good thing, but it definitely exists nowadays.
Nov
From The S and A Short Report, responding to the 400 point 11/13. Pay careful attention to the commentary on Paulson's great new "bait and switch program with our deficit dollar bailout.
"Wow. Yesterday was a remarkably brutal trading day.
My power went out shortly after Treasury Secretary Paulson finished explaining the Bait & Switch bailout program. So I didn't see much of the afternoon session.
I'm stunned by the carnage in the market.
The selling was broad based. It was pervasive. And it was relentless.
Of the 100 or so industry sectors, none were up on the day. It was a wholesale liquidation of everything. Financial stocks made new lows. Oil broke down. Gold and silver sold off. And many components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are on the verge of becoming penny stocks.
Then, just to rub a little salt in the wound, after the close yesterday, Intel lowered revenue guidance. Business is weak in all areas and in all geographic regions.
The stock market futures sold off on the news. And I spent much of the early evening slapping myself on the back of the head for holding a few new long positions overnight.
But... there are some positive signs.
A tremendous amount of bullish pressure is building in many of the momentum indicators I follow. The S&P 500 is nearly 100 points below its 20-day exponential moving average – a magnet from which the index rarely strays more than 30 points. And the sentiment among CNBC anchors is as bearish as I've ever seen it.
All of this points to a bounce. And a bounce from this depressed level could yield 200 or so points on the S&P 500."
Gain a lack of respect. Paulson is worth 850 million, and ran a large brokerage. He is our Sec. of the Treasury. Bernanke is a college professor who has never had a real job. Greenspan is a disciple of Ayn Rand, and practiced supply side bubble economics. The Feds can't even define where the most pressing issues are, or what they have been. Congress actually thought they understood what they were voting on.
The Federal Reserve should be disbanded.
Let's hope that Obama has the smarts to fire these idiots and truly run this like a business. Shame on us for allowing this to happen.
QUESTION AUTHORITY. Here's why:
(CBS/AP) While the Bush administration shifts course on its $700 billion rescue plan, Congress is examining whether even bigger changes should be made in the program in light of the deteriorating economy and soaring mortgage foreclosures.
The debate may not be resolved until President-elect Barack Obama takes office on Jan. 20 and pursues policies for administering the rescue program that are likely to be more closely aligned with his Democratic allies in Congress.
In anticipation of the change of administrations, Democrats were holding hearings in both the House and Senate on Thursday examining various aspects of the most serious financial crisis to hit the country in 70 years.
That crisis was publically declared a recession on Thursday by a major global economic cooperative, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, of which the United States is one of 20 members.
The Paris-based OECD said in a statement that the economies of the U.S., Japan, and Europe were in recession, and the developed world's collective economy was on track to shrink 0.3 percent during 2009.
The House Oversight Committee was examining the role that hedge funds may have played in recent market turbulence. Among those scheduled to testify was billionaire investor George Soros, chairman of Soros Fund Management.
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will hear from executives of a number of financial institutions including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on the issue of how the government's $700 billion rescue effort is operating and particularly whether the government should be requiring more commitments on the use of the money to address rising mortgage foreclosure problems.
CBS News investigative correspondent Sharyl Attkisson reports that the massive tax-payer bailout of the banking system - sold to the American public as a transparent your tax dollars are buying massive shares in some of the nation's biggest and most successful banks - with virtually no strings attached. And that's all allowed under Congress' plan.
Attkisson and the CBS News investigative team decided to ask the banks directly what they are doing with Americans' tax money. Their responses were, on the whole, less than enlightening.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced Wednesday that the administration had decided to scrap what had originally been the centerpiece of the program - a proposal to buy troubled assets to get them off the books of banks as a way of promoting increased lending.
Instead, Paulson said the administration will proceed with an alternative plan to spend $250 billion to buy stock in the banks as a way of bolstering their financial situation and accomplishing the same goal - getting the institutions to return to more normal lending.
Despite shifting from the original plan, Paulson insisted he did not mislead Congress, reports CBS News business correspondent Anthony Mason.
I will never apologize for changing an approach or strategy when the facts change.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
"I will never apologize for changing an approach or strategy when the facts change," he said.
However, critics contend the administration should be imposing more restrictions on the stock purchases as a way of insuring that the banks will use the government resources to increase lending rather than just hoarding the cash or using it to acquire other banks or boost dividends for stockholders.
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said even with the changes in the rescue plan he was still disappointed in the administration's unwillingness to issue strict guidelines to ensure that participating firms use the funds to increase lending.
"In these difficult times, fear is still overwhelming confidence," Schumer told reporters on Tuesday.
More reports detailing the difficulties facing the economy were expected on Thursday with the Labor Department releasing its latest look at weekly applications for unemployment benefits, the Commerce Department reporting on the trade gap for September and the government reporting on the budget deficit for October.
The level of jobless claims was expected to remain at levels indicating the labor market is under severe strains, reflecting what many economists fear could be a deep and prolonged recession.
The government reported last Friday that the unemployment rate soared to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October as businesses cut another 240,000 jobs.
The trade deficit was expected to show some improvement, declining to $57 billion in September, compared to $59.1 billion in August, reflecting a big drop in the price of imported oil and a weakening economy, which is dampening demand for other imports.
The budget deficit, however, was expected to show a big increase in October, the first month of the new budget year, rising to $101.5 billion, compared to $57 billion in October 2007. The soaring costs of the bank rescue and the weak economy are expected to put the country on track to run up a record deficit for the current budget year of between $700 billion and $1 trillion, a staggering sum for a single year.
Despite its new flexibility, the administration said Wednesday it remains opposed to using the rescue fund to bail out the ailing auto industry or to provide guarantees for home loans, an idea that supporters contend offers the greatest hope for helping legions of Americans who are facing foreclosure.
Congressional Democrats felt otherwise on autos, and strongly. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid were pressing for quick passage of a major package for carmakers during a postelection session that begins next Tuesday, and one key House Democrat was putting together legislation that would send $25 billion in emergency loans to the beleaguered industry in exchange for a government ownership stake in the Big Three car companies.
But, if recent history is any judge, an auto industry bailout may not have the desired effect. In the 1990s, Japan tried the same thing, reports Mason.
"And what that resulted in that was this sort of quote unquote 'Zombie Economy,'" Steve Massocca, of Pacific Growth Equities, told CBS News. "You had these zombie companies that were kept alive simply by the fact that the government was able to support them."
The Bush administration has concluded that the bailout bill that passed earlier does not allow loans to the auto industry.
Paulson told reporters Wednesday that the administration was exploring the possibility of setting up a program in conjunction with the Federal Reserve that would provide support for the $1 trillion market in securities that fund such vital consumer products as credit cards, auto loans and students loans. About 40 percent of consumer credit is supplied through the sale of these securities that are backed by payments consumers make on their credit cards and other loans.
The administration has already spoken for all but $60 billion of the initial $350 billion supplied by Congress, including the $250 billion for direct stock purchases from banks and $40 billion for a new loan supplied on Monday to help stabilize troubled insurance giant American International Group.
And from subscribers:
1. MP: Great job on the 440 call...I hope those who had second buys yesterday made out OK today...did she go up enough?
I bought 1 today when the DOW hit 8200 for 4.50
I bought two more near 8000 for 2.85...had an average price of 3.40
Ending up spending a total of $1020...only to sell off all three separately about 2 hours later for a 60% total profit! Made $610 today and could have sold for an extra 2.00 profit but I cannot be greedy anymore! I thought I was being greedy when I held out for 60%! But the market was rising so fast that I was a little unsure about how to take profits. I think I did OK like you already said!
2. GE: NIce trade. Bought at 3.40, and sold at 14.50. What a market. Still hold partials.
3. Jean: You amaze me. You missed the downturn yesterday, but allowed us to buy at 5.00 averages and sell to 12.50, that's what I did. What a market
Thursday, November 13, 2008
We Believe Without Questioning
First, yesterday. I watched a 400 point drop that I did not see coming, far below our bottom test. If the market cannot control itself, if the FEAR leads again, we could easily shift downwards to test 7700 again.
This I had seen, but thought we might be past it. Perhaps not.
If we do, I believe, and I believe it now, it's a time to buy stocks. Further, I believe the U.S. will be forced to bail out GM, etc, and yet again we will have no choice. We let the blood flow too long, and we will have no alternatives.
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence Fink said he's seeing signs of ``capitulation'' in financial markets, a broad selloff that usually precedes the end of a bear market.
``A year ago, I said we won't see a bottom until we see a capitulation,'' he said at an investment conference in New York today. ``We are seeing a capitulation,'' and financial markets may begin to recover by mid-2009, said Fink, 56, whose company is the largest publicly traded asset manager in the U.S.
Ahh, Floyd and his box cutter have gotten so many people writing:) So many of you are afraid that : 1. I am breaking the law, 2. I am "pushing the envelope of decency."
Well, I've tricked you. The TSA, brilliant that they are NOT, have defined that box cutters are illegal (good, as this is the stuff of 9/11) but that letter openers (little plastic covers to hold a razor blade) are LEGAL.
This should be enough to show you what I am trying to teach. We believe without questioning.
I've been carrying one of these "gizmo" letter openers for years, and watching our Government ENFORCING us tell me it is okay, when it is a box cutter under a different name.
False facts abound.
But, there is good news around stupid, slimey GM having to be bailed out by the U.S. citizens, and around "the big three" and their collapse. We believe there is no alternative.
This I had seen, but thought we might be past it. Perhaps not.
If we do, I believe, and I believe it now, it's a time to buy stocks. Further, I believe the U.S. will be forced to bail out GM, etc, and yet again we will have no choice. We let the blood flow too long, and we will have no alternatives.
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence Fink said he's seeing signs of ``capitulation'' in financial markets, a broad selloff that usually precedes the end of a bear market.
``A year ago, I said we won't see a bottom until we see a capitulation,'' he said at an investment conference in New York today. ``We are seeing a capitulation,'' and financial markets may begin to recover by mid-2009, said Fink, 56, whose company is the largest publicly traded asset manager in the U.S.
Ahh, Floyd and his box cutter have gotten so many people writing:) So many of you are afraid that : 1. I am breaking the law, 2. I am "pushing the envelope of decency."
Well, I've tricked you. The TSA, brilliant that they are NOT, have defined that box cutters are illegal (good, as this is the stuff of 9/11) but that letter openers (little plastic covers to hold a razor blade) are LEGAL.
This should be enough to show you what I am trying to teach. We believe without questioning.
I've been carrying one of these "gizmo" letter openers for years, and watching our Government ENFORCING us tell me it is okay, when it is a box cutter under a different name.
False facts abound.
But, there is good news around stupid, slimey GM having to be bailed out by the U.S. citizens, and around "the big three" and their collapse. We believe there is no alternative.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Classical in Being Erratic
Market conditions were classical in being erratic yesterday. We saw a slight market topping, and moves right to our projected Dow lows.
IF the market has more downside, it MAY be to 8200, but we've now sold off all puts profitably and will lead, pending futures, with a short term CALL buy.
Several level 3 subscribers worked with me yesterday on a buy for a Nov440C, bought at 12.20, and sold to 17.00, and we'll begin trading this position for the short term, seeing a short term up cycle as possible.
Recent emails have outlined several "radical things" old Floyd has done:
1. I carry a box cutter on an airplane:) (By the way, you'll love this....they are legal now, although one half of TSA doesn't know it). I carry them on just to show the incompetence of my personal rights being violated, and airport security slowing down business, and to see what TSA idiots actually even find them. I do this in principle of what is a wrong principle, nothing more. You are NO safer than you were years ago. Do not be misled.
2. I gave a story a few weeks ago on being stopped in my 26 year old daughter's car, with old Floyd the passenger, and the officer asked to "see in the trunk." My daughter was stopped by the police and I was offended that they asked her to open her trunk. Why not accommodate, a reader writes? The reason: it is illegal that a police offer would ask this, and it is NOT right to teach a young person to simply "comply." This is Nazi Germany kind of stuff; in fact, it is believed if the youth had fought more rather than comply as taught by Jewish elders much of the Holocaust would've been different. We must learn to say NO when we have rights violated, and not to "comply." She had done nothing wrong, and had no reason to share what was in her trunk (dirty laundry).
3. My cell phone is NOT going to bring an airplane down by being "on" for take off. I refuse to let people LIE to me as to real reason this occurs. Tell me the truth and I'll turn it off. Lie to me, and I will not.
These are ALL FALSE FACTS, and if we as people do not question false facts, how else can we begin to know what is "real", vs. what is "told us".
The "economy is sound", or "deficits do not matter" are comments made to us for years. Why have we believed them? And look what it has caused.
Question facts and authority, not blindly, but respectfully.
In recent weeks we are seeing the highest level of market volatility since the crash of 1987. On a charted volatility index we've hit over 80, literally off the charts.
The Floydian rule is: whenever stocks get volatile, it's time to buy. The Leuthold Group, a great true research house, has charted volatility ratios all the way back to the 1800's and concluded:
"High volatility is the footprint of almost all market bottoms".
High volatility will couple with how we as people collectively interpret a level of consciousness, or an event.
When "fearful" the market reacted more than normally to much bad news, and our freefall led form 14,100 to 7700.
When "greedy" our market moved from 9400 to 14,100, and "bubbles" were created. We allowed our leaders to develop the bubbles (Greenspan) and never questioned facts.
Now we gain facts and are beginning to believe none of them. We're reversing our own volatility ratios as FEAR builds.
IF the market has more downside, it MAY be to 8200, but we've now sold off all puts profitably and will lead, pending futures, with a short term CALL buy.
Several level 3 subscribers worked with me yesterday on a buy for a Nov440C, bought at 12.20, and sold to 17.00, and we'll begin trading this position for the short term, seeing a short term up cycle as possible.
Recent emails have outlined several "radical things" old Floyd has done:
1. I carry a box cutter on an airplane:) (By the way, you'll love this....they are legal now, although one half of TSA doesn't know it). I carry them on just to show the incompetence of my personal rights being violated, and airport security slowing down business, and to see what TSA idiots actually even find them. I do this in principle of what is a wrong principle, nothing more. You are NO safer than you were years ago. Do not be misled.
2. I gave a story a few weeks ago on being stopped in my 26 year old daughter's car, with old Floyd the passenger, and the officer asked to "see in the trunk." My daughter was stopped by the police and I was offended that they asked her to open her trunk. Why not accommodate, a reader writes? The reason: it is illegal that a police offer would ask this, and it is NOT right to teach a young person to simply "comply." This is Nazi Germany kind of stuff; in fact, it is believed if the youth had fought more rather than comply as taught by Jewish elders much of the Holocaust would've been different. We must learn to say NO when we have rights violated, and not to "comply." She had done nothing wrong, and had no reason to share what was in her trunk (dirty laundry).
3. My cell phone is NOT going to bring an airplane down by being "on" for take off. I refuse to let people LIE to me as to real reason this occurs. Tell me the truth and I'll turn it off. Lie to me, and I will not.
These are ALL FALSE FACTS, and if we as people do not question false facts, how else can we begin to know what is "real", vs. what is "told us".
The "economy is sound", or "deficits do not matter" are comments made to us for years. Why have we believed them? And look what it has caused.
Question facts and authority, not blindly, but respectfully.
In recent weeks we are seeing the highest level of market volatility since the crash of 1987. On a charted volatility index we've hit over 80, literally off the charts.
The Floydian rule is: whenever stocks get volatile, it's time to buy. The Leuthold Group, a great true research house, has charted volatility ratios all the way back to the 1800's and concluded:
"High volatility is the footprint of almost all market bottoms".
High volatility will couple with how we as people collectively interpret a level of consciousness, or an event.
When "fearful" the market reacted more than normally to much bad news, and our freefall led form 14,100 to 7700.
When "greedy" our market moved from 9400 to 14,100, and "bubbles" were created. We allowed our leaders to develop the bubbles (Greenspan) and never questioned facts.
Now we gain facts and are beginning to believe none of them. We're reversing our own volatility ratios as FEAR builds.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
It is Learning the Differentiation that makes a Difference
Jean Gebser was a philosopher that felt human consciousness had developed in lie into "structures". IN 1953 he wrote The Ever-Present Origin, and outlined categorizations that led to integral theory models.
Gebser saw turmoil, chaos and social, moral and political decline as positive, no matter what the short term, as turmoil led to new levels of human consciousness. Floydian Therapy works in this way, seeing the current "dissolution of values", or "core beliefs" as coming from polarization "led by how we are led", or not led. In other words, we as a people follow our own chaos and turmoil (worldwide) and if GREED the culprit, magnify it. If FEAR the culprit, we magnify it. And cause and effect leads supply and demand, and the economics of the world then leads the next trigger points.
This is heady stuff, but where we are. Knowing and understanding it is key to your stock market successes. Much of my discussion with clients surrounds learning and understanding our recognition that the way we interpret our experience really determines how we value and see it.
When we understand HOW we interpret an experience we can begin to determine how we value and see it. In turn, if we believe that how we see it is "the norm", or "right" we influence the experience and make it unreal.
Here's an example: on every flight I take I pack a box cutter. This is how 9/11 occurred, and our rights are trampled daily by the TSA at airports as we as people stand in Holocaust lines filing through.
In the last 19 flights my box cutter has never been noticed. This is why I carry it. I am proving to myself either the lack of security, OR the changes in laws that would allow a box cutter to go through (many airports tell me this is now acceptable). It's a classic example of stupidity. I have to take my shoes off, but box cutters are okay, or not noticed.
This means two things:
1. The TSA is inept and the entire "investigation" of our people is worthless.
2. That as sheep the American people have "believed" the rule, "believed the "value of the rule", and "believed" in the competency of the initial decision. The initial decision was not competent, making the "effect" secondary to the "cause".
All three of the beliefs have been false.
It is how we see things that influence how they are experienced.
This is more than true in the stock market.
My rebellion in carrying my box cutter is simply to remind me of what IS, not what is told me to be.
When I hear "facts" I immediately try to prove to myself if they are really facts, or instead, "false facts". It is learning the differentiation that makes a difference. It is from this that we were able, in our Blue Chip Option service, to sell near the top at 14,000, and sell again at 11,000....as none of the economic FACTS we had been hearing made sense to Floyd. Oil at all time highs (then), but unemployment not high......but all the new jobs in home building only, and the market topping. When oil was speculated beyond comprehension, we could and should have been able to see that trader speculation was far out of control. This would have been an example of "understanding false facts", much of what I try to teach in my constant tirades on the idiocy of "analysts and talking heads", most of whom have now lost their jobs, and our fortunes.
Market conditions "flat lined" for so many hours on Monday, yet again a sign that the market does not know what to do. We saw the market move from an opening top 9200, to a bottom testing by 3 p.m. at 8723.
November 380 puts were able to be bought at as low as 1.75, below prior day close, and sold to highs of 4.00, exceeding our expectations. We'll list these as a new potential signal, HIGHER risk only.
Gebser saw turmoil, chaos and social, moral and political decline as positive, no matter what the short term, as turmoil led to new levels of human consciousness. Floydian Therapy works in this way, seeing the current "dissolution of values", or "core beliefs" as coming from polarization "led by how we are led", or not led. In other words, we as a people follow our own chaos and turmoil (worldwide) and if GREED the culprit, magnify it. If FEAR the culprit, we magnify it. And cause and effect leads supply and demand, and the economics of the world then leads the next trigger points.
This is heady stuff, but where we are. Knowing and understanding it is key to your stock market successes. Much of my discussion with clients surrounds learning and understanding our recognition that the way we interpret our experience really determines how we value and see it.
When we understand HOW we interpret an experience we can begin to determine how we value and see it. In turn, if we believe that how we see it is "the norm", or "right" we influence the experience and make it unreal.
Here's an example: on every flight I take I pack a box cutter. This is how 9/11 occurred, and our rights are trampled daily by the TSA at airports as we as people stand in Holocaust lines filing through.
In the last 19 flights my box cutter has never been noticed. This is why I carry it. I am proving to myself either the lack of security, OR the changes in laws that would allow a box cutter to go through (many airports tell me this is now acceptable). It's a classic example of stupidity. I have to take my shoes off, but box cutters are okay, or not noticed.
This means two things:
1. The TSA is inept and the entire "investigation" of our people is worthless.
2. That as sheep the American people have "believed" the rule, "believed the "value of the rule", and "believed" in the competency of the initial decision. The initial decision was not competent, making the "effect" secondary to the "cause".
All three of the beliefs have been false.
It is how we see things that influence how they are experienced.
This is more than true in the stock market.
My rebellion in carrying my box cutter is simply to remind me of what IS, not what is told me to be.
When I hear "facts" I immediately try to prove to myself if they are really facts, or instead, "false facts". It is learning the differentiation that makes a difference. It is from this that we were able, in our Blue Chip Option service, to sell near the top at 14,000, and sell again at 11,000....as none of the economic FACTS we had been hearing made sense to Floyd. Oil at all time highs (then), but unemployment not high......but all the new jobs in home building only, and the market topping. When oil was speculated beyond comprehension, we could and should have been able to see that trader speculation was far out of control. This would have been an example of "understanding false facts", much of what I try to teach in my constant tirades on the idiocy of "analysts and talking heads", most of whom have now lost their jobs, and our fortunes.
Market conditions "flat lined" for so many hours on Monday, yet again a sign that the market does not know what to do. We saw the market move from an opening top 9200, to a bottom testing by 3 p.m. at 8723.
November 380 puts were able to be bought at as low as 1.75, below prior day close, and sold to highs of 4.00, exceeding our expectations. We'll list these as a new potential signal, HIGHER risk only.
Monday, November 10, 2008
GM May Not Have Enough Money To Finish The Year
GM may not have enough money to finish out the year, and has quieted its acquisition/consolidation talks with Chrysler, both of whom will have to be bailed out, Floyd believes, by the U.S. Government. What a sad statement. Blame must be made.
We have entered the greatest recessionary period since Reagan's second term in office.
We are threatened by three ongoing wars created:
1. The useless war in Iraq
2. The war in Afghanistan
3. The war against "red and blue", the divisive split of the country. This is the biggest war, and part of the war of a world that has been watching (and following us) in our Greed and loathing, and a world watching (not hoping) that we can become a true superpower again. We as a nation are NOT that now.
From Mike Gibbons:
Although Friday's gains gave a little relief after the 10% losses of the previous two sessions, they came on light volume and as such did not convince us that the overall downward trend is broken. In fact, as the economic news worsens, not just in the US but around the world, it is becoming more and more certain that we are in for a prolonged and deep recession. If so, there are further gains to be made on the short side and very little to be gained by going long. As we show in this weeks Top Tip, our short side selections have been very successful and as a group have given much better returns than would have been obtained by shorting the major indexes alone.
Friday's unemployment figures were bad but because they count only those actively looking for work they do not count those who have given up or are on shorter work weeks. So the unemployment figures are actually much worse than the headline number suggests. Commentators on the News Hour Friday night estimated that the real unemployment rate is 11% and could grow to 15% in coming months. This will clearly be devastating to the economy and it is essential an effective stimulus package be enacted quickly. The market action on Friday indicates some investors are anticipating such a package and that regained confidence, when it is enacted, will lift the markets higher. We think there is more downside potential than upside.
We have entered the greatest recessionary period since Reagan's second term in office.
We are threatened by three ongoing wars created:
1. The useless war in Iraq
2. The war in Afghanistan
3. The war against "red and blue", the divisive split of the country. This is the biggest war, and part of the war of a world that has been watching (and following us) in our Greed and loathing, and a world watching (not hoping) that we can become a true superpower again. We as a nation are NOT that now.
From Mike Gibbons:
Although Friday's gains gave a little relief after the 10% losses of the previous two sessions, they came on light volume and as such did not convince us that the overall downward trend is broken. In fact, as the economic news worsens, not just in the US but around the world, it is becoming more and more certain that we are in for a prolonged and deep recession. If so, there are further gains to be made on the short side and very little to be gained by going long. As we show in this weeks Top Tip, our short side selections have been very successful and as a group have given much better returns than would have been obtained by shorting the major indexes alone.
Friday's unemployment figures were bad but because they count only those actively looking for work they do not count those who have given up or are on shorter work weeks. So the unemployment figures are actually much worse than the headline number suggests. Commentators on the News Hour Friday night estimated that the real unemployment rate is 11% and could grow to 15% in coming months. This will clearly be devastating to the economy and it is essential an effective stimulus package be enacted quickly. The market action on Friday indicates some investors are anticipating such a package and that regained confidence, when it is enacted, will lift the markets higher. We think there is more downside potential than upside.
Friday, November 7, 2008
I Agree With You on Almost Everything...
As always, Floydian rants solicit commentary from our subscribers, as my job is to provoke and make you question everything. It's how you'll learn to read the market, and learn not to believe what is "told to you." Listening to the stories and lies (cell phones on bring down airplanes) is what creates our issues.
Level 3 subscriber AG from Colorado took my comments on the Holocaust, and how certain Muslims may want to rewrite history, and taught me well what I was trying to teach you. What AG teaches is how we as a people "selectively" are provided, or chose to remember or marginalize what we choose to not know. Read carefully, as this is exactly appropriate to the stock market, and how we have allowed ourselves to be manipulated:
"I just read your commentary. I agree with you on almost everything .The only thing that I could disagree with you on is that, I do see a hope for America now in Barack. The way will not be easy but I do feel very strongly he has been able to crystallize the ideals on which America was founded. We are not a perfect Union yet but at each time in which we meet extreme difficulty it is a chance to reaffirm ourselves, to raise above the forces of negativity within each of us and move little closer to a more perfect higher self. In this election Barack is not special because of his ethnicity, because he is the first "African American president." He is transformational because he started and successfully realized a movement based on social justice and a vision of equality for all people. It is in our times of greatest despair that we get to see the light that illuminates all of us from within. We saw it before in the time of our founding fathers, in the time of the civil war with Lincoln and in the time of JFK. I think we are seeing it now again in Obama. What makes him transformational is that he is no more or less the every one of us. His uniqueness comes from his commonness and his ability to fight for it.
In respect to the subscriber who wrote of the rewriting of history in regards to the holocaust, I have to agree that the only way we learn and developed as a society is to learn form the past and so the preservation of both the good and bad in our growth as a civilization must be recorded meticulously . But I pose the question, whose version of history should prevail? We in the west know of world history as seen though our eyes, we are taught in schools of the sacrifice of Christian lives during the crusades, yet have we ever looked at how many Muslims were killed during those religious wars? We don't really have to even go that far back. A few years ago every day we would see running on the bottom of the CNN news tape the death toll of American soldiers in IRAQ. What is amazing is that as we record the sacrifice of American lives in Iraq yet most Americans will not be able to tell you of the number of Iraqi lives that have been lost because our invasion. At least we have a history of the Jewish holocaust. What is so very sad is that over 1.2 million Iraqi people have died since our "liberation" and we do not even generally make this holocaust known let alone "attempt to erase it." Had Hitler won the war "history" would have only considered the atrocities of this monster as "collateral damage" in much the same way we have marginalized what we have done to the Iraqis. My point in the tirade is that before we point fingers perhaps we should try to make ourselves a better people and hold ourselves to the same standards we try to hold others to. If we truly want to grow as a nation and as individuals we have to first take a look at the face that stares back at us from the mirror and conquer our own demons first."
With this said, it's time to move on. Every hope and prayer I have is in Obama being able to transform, and lead, and pull us to one nation. There must not be red/blue states, or people, and the hate, anger, and divisiveness in our nation must end, or it will destroy us.
No economic news is good, and the market now "reacts" to a new President. We believe a bottom is occurring, at least for the short term, and that market volatility may continue, but the fear will slightly subside.
The rhetoric will slow, and actions will begin.
Our December puts were profitable to highs of 15.00, keeping our record almost spotless, and the Dow closed right near our Dow projection bottoms.
Although it may not occur today, it is likely now that the market will bottom. Watch for any upturn 100 points up that holds through close to see if we have upside potential. We'll hold our November calls a few more days on upturn, with two buys made.
Level 3 subscriber AG from Colorado took my comments on the Holocaust, and how certain Muslims may want to rewrite history, and taught me well what I was trying to teach you. What AG teaches is how we as a people "selectively" are provided, or chose to remember or marginalize what we choose to not know. Read carefully, as this is exactly appropriate to the stock market, and how we have allowed ourselves to be manipulated:
"I just read your commentary. I agree with you on almost everything .The only thing that I could disagree with you on is that, I do see a hope for America now in Barack. The way will not be easy but I do feel very strongly he has been able to crystallize the ideals on which America was founded. We are not a perfect Union yet but at each time in which we meet extreme difficulty it is a chance to reaffirm ourselves, to raise above the forces of negativity within each of us and move little closer to a more perfect higher self. In this election Barack is not special because of his ethnicity, because he is the first "African American president." He is transformational because he started and successfully realized a movement based on social justice and a vision of equality for all people. It is in our times of greatest despair that we get to see the light that illuminates all of us from within. We saw it before in the time of our founding fathers, in the time of the civil war with Lincoln and in the time of JFK. I think we are seeing it now again in Obama. What makes him transformational is that he is no more or less the every one of us. His uniqueness comes from his commonness and his ability to fight for it.
In respect to the subscriber who wrote of the rewriting of history in regards to the holocaust, I have to agree that the only way we learn and developed as a society is to learn form the past and so the preservation of both the good and bad in our growth as a civilization must be recorded meticulously . But I pose the question, whose version of history should prevail? We in the west know of world history as seen though our eyes, we are taught in schools of the sacrifice of Christian lives during the crusades, yet have we ever looked at how many Muslims were killed during those religious wars? We don't really have to even go that far back. A few years ago every day we would see running on the bottom of the CNN news tape the death toll of American soldiers in IRAQ. What is amazing is that as we record the sacrifice of American lives in Iraq yet most Americans will not be able to tell you of the number of Iraqi lives that have been lost because our invasion. At least we have a history of the Jewish holocaust. What is so very sad is that over 1.2 million Iraqi people have died since our "liberation" and we do not even generally make this holocaust known let alone "attempt to erase it." Had Hitler won the war "history" would have only considered the atrocities of this monster as "collateral damage" in much the same way we have marginalized what we have done to the Iraqis. My point in the tirade is that before we point fingers perhaps we should try to make ourselves a better people and hold ourselves to the same standards we try to hold others to. If we truly want to grow as a nation and as individuals we have to first take a look at the face that stares back at us from the mirror and conquer our own demons first."
With this said, it's time to move on. Every hope and prayer I have is in Obama being able to transform, and lead, and pull us to one nation. There must not be red/blue states, or people, and the hate, anger, and divisiveness in our nation must end, or it will destroy us.
No economic news is good, and the market now "reacts" to a new President. We believe a bottom is occurring, at least for the short term, and that market volatility may continue, but the fear will slightly subside.
The rhetoric will slow, and actions will begin.
Our December puts were profitable to highs of 15.00, keeping our record almost spotless, and the Dow closed right near our Dow projection bottoms.
Although it may not occur today, it is likely now that the market will bottom. Watch for any upturn 100 points up that holds through close to see if we have upside potential. We'll hold our November calls a few more days on upturn, with two buys made.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
A Dramatic Victory
The Democrats won a dramatic victory and the mood on Wall Street was as expected, with market moves that took the market to lows of 9,071.
Level 3 Subscriber RC, a devout Republican, writes me regularly with his point of view, and I respect him. Yesterday he wrote to be shocked about how Muslims have now forced Great Britain, and San Francisco, to take Holocaust historical facts out of the history books, et al, as certain Muslims do not believe there was a Holocaust. As we bantered back and forth, RC wrote me I had "too much hate."
The election is now over. I have had much disrespect, and a great deal of anger, over Bushian neo conservatism, but began thinking about "hate," and sent RC this commentary:
I thought about your comment.
I have not hate, only disrespect for much that has gone on. Bush deserves to be hated (or at least not respected, he has destroyed our country in many ways)
I do not believe that a young Barack Obama meeting Ayers, led by a top Republican (never mentioned) has a single thing to do with whether he can run a country. McCain's faulty game plays on this backfired on him.
I do believe that choosing Sarah Palin, a Christian right winger, was a classic example of how bad McCain would manage, as he chose a potential leader of the world, to win. Sorry, she cannot lead our country. The majority of our country, thankfully, agreed with me. McCain's "game" failed.
I do believe we were consciously lied to by Bush and Cheney about Iraq and that their oil war backfired on them. I do believe that we have killed our our own citizens, spent billions, and killed numerous civilians, for a war that has no end, and no purpose. What Hussein did is irrelevant, as it is not to us to go to each dictatorship to "save the world."
I do believe that church and state must be separated.
I do believe that Muslims should not be influencing historical perspectives, such as the Holocaust, and that we are now seeing the reverse reaction by our over reaction to their anger. Their anger is deserved, sadly, as we have made Muslims "the evil ones," and created a world of anger (All Bush and neo cons). We are a world of varying people, and different religions.
I do not believe any reference to God should influence our politics, as our nation is NOT Christian, but a multitude of religions.
I do believe that McCain has made it a campaign of hate first, and that we now have idiots being mean to Palin, et al. It's a two edged sword. I think McCain's ugly campaign finally backfired on him, and his "games" were seen through.
I do believe that McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time, and I do believe that Bush politics have created this entire mess. All fell in, but it was "from the top" that our direction began.
I do believe that it's time to let the Democrats yet again undo the supply side game that Reagan led , quadrupled by Bushy 1, and now made worse by Bushy 2. Living in Florida I simply was stunned by what Jeb Bush, our former Governor, was able to do to destroy our school systems, and home ownership taxation.
I do believe that our no bid games in Iraq were great for Bush croney's, and built nothing. I know. I sold kitchens to Halliburton for Iraq that I saw marked up 200% after our sale, for doing nothing.
I do believe that your opinion on abortion and same sex marriage bores me. I want you to have the right to your opinion, as I want the right to mine....and not be legislated if I disagree with you. I want a Supreme Court that does not bring religion into decisions.
I do believe that neither candidate will be able to do half of what they have said, as we will find our economic situation even worse, and will be out of money.
I do believe that McCain is a loser, just a war hero done good, that is a poor choice for the Republicans, and that Palin was worse, and the election will be lost by Tom Delay, by Karl Rove, by the entire "Bushy gang" that made little of our rights, falsely imprisoned people, and allowed horrifying lack of prisoner rights to be done, all in the name of terrorism. I was proven right.
I do believe we took our eye off the ball and left Afghanistan. Went to Iraq, for oil. Let Wall St. ride. Tried to even privatize social security.
Not hate, but hard facts to me that I'd have preferred Bill Clinton to what Bush did, and I prefer the chance to Obama, that to have allowed Sarah potentially be President.
You find facts often that you send that show what others have done wrong, yet have nothing to do with this. Ayers and Obama.....what's the connection, Obama at 25 working with Republicans leading a committee that Ayers is on, and it becoming the "game" of the election, because McCain has nothing good to say. I saw this election become classic Republican games of "fear and loathing", just as Bushy did 4 and 8 years ago. Finally America saw through the "fear" game.
Not hate, just a disrespect always for those that want to tell me how I must be. And I dead agree with you on the Holocaust and Muslims, but find this is the issue, NOT the cause. We have created a world of haters, and no one will really win, as half the country thinks one way and the other the opposite.
How sad.
So, the election is over, and now the real issue begins....what honestly can be done, not the promises, but what can be done, to lead this country to unison, and economic balance. We have spent far too long without any unity."
Level 3 Subscriber RC, a devout Republican, writes me regularly with his point of view, and I respect him. Yesterday he wrote to be shocked about how Muslims have now forced Great Britain, and San Francisco, to take Holocaust historical facts out of the history books, et al, as certain Muslims do not believe there was a Holocaust. As we bantered back and forth, RC wrote me I had "too much hate."
The election is now over. I have had much disrespect, and a great deal of anger, over Bushian neo conservatism, but began thinking about "hate," and sent RC this commentary:
I thought about your comment.
I have not hate, only disrespect for much that has gone on. Bush deserves to be hated (or at least not respected, he has destroyed our country in many ways)
I do not believe that a young Barack Obama meeting Ayers, led by a top Republican (never mentioned) has a single thing to do with whether he can run a country. McCain's faulty game plays on this backfired on him.
I do believe that choosing Sarah Palin, a Christian right winger, was a classic example of how bad McCain would manage, as he chose a potential leader of the world, to win. Sorry, she cannot lead our country. The majority of our country, thankfully, agreed with me. McCain's "game" failed.
I do believe we were consciously lied to by Bush and Cheney about Iraq and that their oil war backfired on them. I do believe that we have killed our our own citizens, spent billions, and killed numerous civilians, for a war that has no end, and no purpose. What Hussein did is irrelevant, as it is not to us to go to each dictatorship to "save the world."
I do believe that church and state must be separated.
I do believe that Muslims should not be influencing historical perspectives, such as the Holocaust, and that we are now seeing the reverse reaction by our over reaction to their anger. Their anger is deserved, sadly, as we have made Muslims "the evil ones," and created a world of anger (All Bush and neo cons). We are a world of varying people, and different religions.
I do not believe any reference to God should influence our politics, as our nation is NOT Christian, but a multitude of religions.
I do believe that McCain has made it a campaign of hate first, and that we now have idiots being mean to Palin, et al. It's a two edged sword. I think McCain's ugly campaign finally backfired on him, and his "games" were seen through.
I do believe that McCain voted with Bush 90% of the time, and I do believe that Bush politics have created this entire mess. All fell in, but it was "from the top" that our direction began.
I do believe that it's time to let the Democrats yet again undo the supply side game that Reagan led , quadrupled by Bushy 1, and now made worse by Bushy 2. Living in Florida I simply was stunned by what Jeb Bush, our former Governor, was able to do to destroy our school systems, and home ownership taxation.
I do believe that our no bid games in Iraq were great for Bush croney's, and built nothing. I know. I sold kitchens to Halliburton for Iraq that I saw marked up 200% after our sale, for doing nothing.
I do believe that your opinion on abortion and same sex marriage bores me. I want you to have the right to your opinion, as I want the right to mine....and not be legislated if I disagree with you. I want a Supreme Court that does not bring religion into decisions.
I do believe that neither candidate will be able to do half of what they have said, as we will find our economic situation even worse, and will be out of money.
I do believe that McCain is a loser, just a war hero done good, that is a poor choice for the Republicans, and that Palin was worse, and the election will be lost by Tom Delay, by Karl Rove, by the entire "Bushy gang" that made little of our rights, falsely imprisoned people, and allowed horrifying lack of prisoner rights to be done, all in the name of terrorism. I was proven right.
I do believe we took our eye off the ball and left Afghanistan. Went to Iraq, for oil. Let Wall St. ride. Tried to even privatize social security.
Not hate, but hard facts to me that I'd have preferred Bill Clinton to what Bush did, and I prefer the chance to Obama, that to have allowed Sarah potentially be President.
You find facts often that you send that show what others have done wrong, yet have nothing to do with this. Ayers and Obama.....what's the connection, Obama at 25 working with Republicans leading a committee that Ayers is on, and it becoming the "game" of the election, because McCain has nothing good to say. I saw this election become classic Republican games of "fear and loathing", just as Bushy did 4 and 8 years ago. Finally America saw through the "fear" game.
Not hate, just a disrespect always for those that want to tell me how I must be. And I dead agree with you on the Holocaust and Muslims, but find this is the issue, NOT the cause. We have created a world of haters, and no one will really win, as half the country thinks one way and the other the opposite.
How sad.
So, the election is over, and now the real issue begins....what honestly can be done, not the promises, but what can be done, to lead this country to unison, and economic balance. We have spent far too long without any unity."
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Presidential Euphoria
From "Key Turning Dates":
"Almost two years ago, I alerted to expect 2007 to mark an historic high in the stock market. My rationale was based on the fact that 2007 would mark the anniversary year of many major market peaks. The year 2007, I wrote, would mark the 200th anniversary of the major high of 1808; the 170th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1837; the 100th anniversary of the high of 1907, which was followed by the "Rich Man's Panic" of 1907; the 70th anniversary of the high of 1937, which was followed by a crash; and the 20th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1987. I also pointed out that 2007 marked the 400th anniversary of the beginning of public trading of shares of stock, which occurred in Holland in 1607. I explained at that time that markets recognize anniversary dates because they are governed by mass human psychology, which is mathematically ordered. The "collective unconscious," as explained by the Swiss psychologist Karl Jung, supercedes news events, no matter how dramatic they might be.
Well, we can now see that the year 2007 indeed marked a major high in the stock market, and I believe it will be seen in retrospect as a high as significant as that of 1929. The crash of 1929 lasted into 1932; but I think the crash that began in 2007 will last longer, perhaps as long as 8 years or more. As of October 10, one of our turning dates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen from a high of 14,200 on (October 11, 2007) to a low of 7,882. Notice the one-year anniversary date? The major high and (thus far) important low were almost exactly one year apart. This is about a 45 percent decline, almost equal to decline from 1973 - 1974, and the largest decline (thus far) since 1929 - 1932.
The 1973 - 1974 market plunge was accompanied by a very steep recession. And we are seeing a recession set in as the current decline unfolds. But there is something different this time around: unprecedented levels of debt at the consumer level, the corporate level, and most certainly at the federal government level.
And the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market has brought down a number of Wall Street institutions. It is this deleveraging of debt that is the real long-term culprit for the U. S. and world economies. The vanishing liquidity has occurred at a breathtaking pace. Right now, it appears that the credit crisis has subsided;but rest assured, it has not. It will return with a vengeance at some point. That is the way markets work, of course. They ravage investors and then stage interim rallies that can last for long periods of time. These interim rallies, of course, lull most investors into a false sense of security, making them unprepared for the next downturn. "
As a new President takes over, and 8 years of hell end, I believe the market may now be a ripe buy for good blue chips, for traders willing to now hold for the long term. I continue to believe the "best is past" until all supply side economics stops it trickle down, and more subsidized programs and tax shifts develop a country with more distribution of wealth. Is it right? No. Is it necessary? Sadly, yes.
Yesterday, on Presidential euphoria, the market hit highs of 9693, and lows of 9283. The Nov480C was sold to top profits of 19.50, from the prior day buy, and we're now holding only a December put, for what should be a "two way trade" potential as the market now reacts to who wins, and what will happen next.
"Almost two years ago, I alerted to expect 2007 to mark an historic high in the stock market. My rationale was based on the fact that 2007 would mark the anniversary year of many major market peaks. The year 2007, I wrote, would mark the 200th anniversary of the major high of 1808; the 170th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1837; the 100th anniversary of the high of 1907, which was followed by the "Rich Man's Panic" of 1907; the 70th anniversary of the high of 1937, which was followed by a crash; and the 20th anniversary of the peak and crash of 1987. I also pointed out that 2007 marked the 400th anniversary of the beginning of public trading of shares of stock, which occurred in Holland in 1607. I explained at that time that markets recognize anniversary dates because they are governed by mass human psychology, which is mathematically ordered. The "collective unconscious," as explained by the Swiss psychologist Karl Jung, supercedes news events, no matter how dramatic they might be.
Well, we can now see that the year 2007 indeed marked a major high in the stock market, and I believe it will be seen in retrospect as a high as significant as that of 1929. The crash of 1929 lasted into 1932; but I think the crash that began in 2007 will last longer, perhaps as long as 8 years or more. As of October 10, one of our turning dates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen from a high of 14,200 on (October 11, 2007) to a low of 7,882. Notice the one-year anniversary date? The major high and (thus far) important low were almost exactly one year apart. This is about a 45 percent decline, almost equal to decline from 1973 - 1974, and the largest decline (thus far) since 1929 - 1932.
The 1973 - 1974 market plunge was accompanied by a very steep recession. And we are seeing a recession set in as the current decline unfolds. But there is something different this time around: unprecedented levels of debt at the consumer level, the corporate level, and most certainly at the federal government level.
And the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market has brought down a number of Wall Street institutions. It is this deleveraging of debt that is the real long-term culprit for the U. S. and world economies. The vanishing liquidity has occurred at a breathtaking pace. Right now, it appears that the credit crisis has subsided;but rest assured, it has not. It will return with a vengeance at some point. That is the way markets work, of course. They ravage investors and then stage interim rallies that can last for long periods of time. These interim rallies, of course, lull most investors into a false sense of security, making them unprepared for the next downturn. "
As a new President takes over, and 8 years of hell end, I believe the market may now be a ripe buy for good blue chips, for traders willing to now hold for the long term. I continue to believe the "best is past" until all supply side economics stops it trickle down, and more subsidized programs and tax shifts develop a country with more distribution of wealth. Is it right? No. Is it necessary? Sadly, yes.
Yesterday, on Presidential euphoria, the market hit highs of 9693, and lows of 9283. The Nov480C was sold to top profits of 19.50, from the prior day buy, and we're now holding only a December put, for what should be a "two way trade" potential as the market now reacts to who wins, and what will happen next.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Today Is It
Today is it. History will be made. Vote smartly. Your lives depend upon this. Economically we have created a world wide disaster, based on supply side economics, lack of regulatory controls, and "we are in charge" thinking to the world. Our arrogance has hurt us greatly. Question authority, question FALSE facts, and elect smartly.
Subscriber JK gave me some good work on new stock terms, that might help you:
CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.
Citi says credit card losses may hit record levels in 2009. Ford, which makes big cars and trucks and deserves this, had sales off 30% for October. They knew better. GM down 45%, and they obviously didn't know better, but a true sign of recession is Toyota, which does right, also down 23%.
We believe two way trades are a very likely possibility, although truly no one can predict both this election, and how the American public will respond.
Subscriber JK gave me some good work on new stock terms, that might help you:
CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo @ $240 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.
Citi says credit card losses may hit record levels in 2009. Ford, which makes big cars and trucks and deserves this, had sales off 30% for October. They knew better. GM down 45%, and they obviously didn't know better, but a true sign of recession is Toyota, which does right, also down 23%.
We believe two way trades are a very likely possibility, although truly no one can predict both this election, and how the American public will respond.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Today Will End My Rants... For Now ; )
Today will end my soap box rants, as we elect a new President tomorrow. 8 years ago I wrote in newsletters:
*George Bush will be the worst President of all time. The economy will shudder, the deficit will rise, and he will get us in oil wars. He is worse than his Father
and a neo-con that will take away our rights to privacy." I was sadly dead right.
4 years ago I wrote:
*Once again the Bush dynasty has put fear to the American people, on "terrorism" and "protection," and we stupidly have believed them. We are led by Cheney, the real President, a true neo-con,
Rumsfeld who has "outsourced" the war, and by an Administration that has played to Wall Street, deregulated excessively, and taken away all capitalism controls, so that only the wealthy win. It will devastate our economy and our nation will suffer worldwide disdain." I was sadly dead right again.
Today I write:
*If McCain is elected you will see the same games continue, the same war lies, the same religious crap that has NOTHING to do with our people, and our nation will not get out of debt, but have more.
Just that he could consider a Sarah Palin as his VP candidate shows his inability for true leadership. If you honestly believe that Sarah could be President and she has a 1 in 3 chance, you truly are someone I do not understand, as she has shown no capability to even know the issues, and wraps herself in "buzz words."
Obama brings hope that a fully Democratic led House and Congress could restore our country's financial health, as Reagonomics "supply side" deficit building will be stopped.
Vote smartly. Your life depends upon it this time. Don't fall for stupidity of newsbites or religious fervor. Same sex marriage laws has NOTHING to do with our country's future.
Question authority.
There were several signs that market conditions for swing traders and medium term investors were improving this week:
Tuesday's near record gains were sustained through to week's end. This is contrary to the recent history when large gains have been followed by similarly large losses
As the market summary below shows, the indexes made some very impressive gains. The Russell 2000 performed best with a 12% gain
The gains were held into the close on Friday, indicating that nervousness about weekend events has diminished
TED Spread and Libor rates are coming down slowly, although they are still way too high for free credit flow.
We don't know if we have seen the bottom of this bear market yet, but we expect that immediately following the election the winning senator will take the lead in proposing legislation that will alleviate the depth of the recession we are already in. We know the Democrats are in favor of a new stimulus package and Martin Feldstein, an advisor to the McCain campaign, has also proposed a stimulus plan. So there is a good chance of bipartisan approval for new stimulus measures, whomever is elected President on Tuesday.
*George Bush will be the worst President of all time. The economy will shudder, the deficit will rise, and he will get us in oil wars. He is worse than his Father
and a neo-con that will take away our rights to privacy." I was sadly dead right.
4 years ago I wrote:
*Once again the Bush dynasty has put fear to the American people, on "terrorism" and "protection," and we stupidly have believed them. We are led by Cheney, the real President, a true neo-con,
Rumsfeld who has "outsourced" the war, and by an Administration that has played to Wall Street, deregulated excessively, and taken away all capitalism controls, so that only the wealthy win. It will devastate our economy and our nation will suffer worldwide disdain." I was sadly dead right again.
Today I write:
*If McCain is elected you will see the same games continue, the same war lies, the same religious crap that has NOTHING to do with our people, and our nation will not get out of debt, but have more.
Just that he could consider a Sarah Palin as his VP candidate shows his inability for true leadership. If you honestly believe that Sarah could be President and she has a 1 in 3 chance, you truly are someone I do not understand, as she has shown no capability to even know the issues, and wraps herself in "buzz words."
Obama brings hope that a fully Democratic led House and Congress could restore our country's financial health, as Reagonomics "supply side" deficit building will be stopped.
Vote smartly. Your life depends upon it this time. Don't fall for stupidity of newsbites or religious fervor. Same sex marriage laws has NOTHING to do with our country's future.
Question authority.
There were several signs that market conditions for swing traders and medium term investors were improving this week:
Tuesday's near record gains were sustained through to week's end. This is contrary to the recent history when large gains have been followed by similarly large losses
As the market summary below shows, the indexes made some very impressive gains. The Russell 2000 performed best with a 12% gain
The gains were held into the close on Friday, indicating that nervousness about weekend events has diminished
TED Spread and Libor rates are coming down slowly, although they are still way too high for free credit flow.
We don't know if we have seen the bottom of this bear market yet, but we expect that immediately following the election the winning senator will take the lead in proposing legislation that will alleviate the depth of the recession we are already in. We know the Democrats are in favor of a new stimulus package and Martin Feldstein, an advisor to the McCain campaign, has also proposed a stimulus plan. So there is a good chance of bipartisan approval for new stimulus measures, whomever is elected President on Tuesday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)