Tuesday, November 25, 2008

The Only Indisputable Fact is That There is No Fact

Worry does not exist. We create the emotion, create the body reaction (long and short term) and argue with ourselves on what there is to worry about. If I throw a rock at you and you see it, your perception will be altered, and your fear and dread will rise. This will manifest in adrenalin rushes.

But it is not truly real, as one could see the rock coming and "not care" (it is possible) and have no fear, only calm.

We are thusly what we decide and choose to "be, see, or experience."

The only indisputable fact is that there is no fact, only our definition that there is such a thing. A rock is NOT necessarily hard.

Metaphysical study is critical to the trader, as it is our perception (individually and collectively) that creates cause and effect.

As an example, to a religious person it is indisputable that there is a God. But there is no fact of this, only interpretation of fact. There is no physical proof of a higher being, only our desire that there be one, or our interpretation of doctrines and examples.

Religious people will argue, and are wrong. It is unprovable. Atheists and non religious people will argue factually or in anger, and are also wrong. They do NOT know there is no God, they choose to believe that there is not one, and that no fact can be proven that there is.

This means both are wrong. So, is there a God, or are we God? Or is there no God. Or, is there only one God. This "false fact" thinking is the stuff of persecution and wars. Assuming there is a God, I'm sure she's smiling at us as we struggle with our training wheels.

From the Stock Traders Almanac:

TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
“For 35 years, trading the Dow Jones Industrials using the combination of the Wed before Thanksgiving and the Friday after had a great track record, except for 2 occasions. But publishing it in 1987 was the “kiss of death and Wednesday-Friday since 1988 lost 7 of 19 times versus a Wednesday-Monday with only 5 losses. The best strategy appears to be coming into the week long and exiting into strength Friday or Monday.”


And, from the market. Citi got bailed out. Now homebuilders want a bail out, and the auto industry is still asking. I continue to see 2 trillion spent before this crisis is over, and more dollars printed to do it, and a much larger deficit. Obama has his job just now managing the crisis that was created.

The market loves any good news, being classically overextended, and took a nice ride up Monday, allowing our Dec440Calls to sell to high of 15.20, the Dow hitting 8600++. Late afternoon Monday we issued a high risk trade to the put, that may require second buys, and that anticipates a negative retail weekend.
Meanwhile, we'll project Dow tops with more upside pre-holiday, making note the market diminishes in volume pre Thanksgiving, is closed for Thanksgiving, and is simply NOT worth trading Wednesday noon one. We're building a higher risk put trade on bad retail data, and on what "could" be tops.

And a rant from my 26 year old daughter:

I'm angry. I worked hard through high school and earned a full scholarship to college, and immediately after college I used the money my parents and I had saved for those first four years to pay my way through graduate school while I began my first year teaching. I'm now in my fourth year teaching (which I drive to in my fuel efficient, money saving Honda Civic Hybrid), work my father here at the OEX, as well as tutor on the side. By living frugally and working hard I've managed to do something seemingly unheard of nowadays - I live within my means. I have a total of one credit card, which is paid off in full every month and I own everything that is in my apartment. I'm a hardworking citizen who has done everything I'm supposed to - pay my taxes, and do my part for this country by educating children every single day. And I'm angry. I'm angry that these CEOs at banks and auto companies alike are not being called out for their corruption and inefficiency. I am angry that we have to save them to save this economy and that they won't stand up, take responsibility, and say sorry. I tell my students everyday to take ownership for their actions, but how will I teach them the proper behavior when everywhere they look they see that it's fine to misbehave and mess up without taking responsibility? So, I will go to work tomorrow in my fuel efficient car and show my students again and again how to properly take ownership for your actions - the good and the bad. Hopefully I'll never have to be this angry again, because maybe the one thing we can all learn from this debacle is to take ownership of our actions.

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