Stocks had their best month in a year, with the Dow posting a July gain of 692 points, or 7.1%. Encouraging earnings reports have supported the market. On Friday the blue chips overcame an early 120 point drop to finish down just 1 point. However, the FEAR began. U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter to a 2.4% annual rate as consumers remained frugal and a business restocking showed signs of fading.
Floyd's favorite, and his soapbox rants for years: "The recession was deeper, and the subsequent recovery slower, than the government originally estimated. Remember just a few years ago when Emperor Bush was telling us we were "not really in a recession" and that things were brighter. Hmm, well it appears the numbers were wrong and the 1.5 last years of the Emperor's reign the GDP was actually much worse, with corrected numbers.
People forget the cause of the recession and focus on the stimulus spending that is meant to save it. For just a year, that didn't exist, I would like to implement the Republican strategy for "stop spending money." I have yet to see a Republican plan that details WHAT TO DO.
Floyd predicts another large economic stimulus required before year end.
Our masterful call that has hit profits over 21 times in a row was profitable again Friday for traders that had steel nerves and bought on the downside, waiting for the turnaround.
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Friday, July 30, 2010
We Trade the Frenzy
-- NASDAQ AND NY COMPOSITE HIT RESISTANCE
-- A VOLATILE 16 WEEK PERIOD
-- FINANCE AND SEMIS HIT RESISTANCE
-- OIL AND GASOLINE ETFS FORM TRIANGLES
-- EURO ETF HITS KEY RETRACEMENT
-- EURO AND STOCKS ARE POSITIVELY CORRELATED
-- GOLD AND EURO ARE NEGATIVELY CORRELATED
Apache Oil buys in to bail out BP. We have BP calls. Apache (APA) many of our long term traders know I play a lot, but right now my www.bluechiptoptions.com oil stock recommendation is with another play.
The Apache Oil/BP money could be a trigger for the market.
It is important now as we trade the frenzy in the electronic bet, trying to catch "nuances" in bid/ask and making money that we recognize the triggers that will stimulate. This may be one.
The market should report the second quarter GDP as having 3.0% growth. It's really smaller inventories, but should show again some improvement. It always depends, with news, what the mob psychology sees at that moment.
-- A VOLATILE 16 WEEK PERIOD
-- FINANCE AND SEMIS HIT RESISTANCE
-- OIL AND GASOLINE ETFS FORM TRIANGLES
-- EURO ETF HITS KEY RETRACEMENT
-- EURO AND STOCKS ARE POSITIVELY CORRELATED
-- GOLD AND EURO ARE NEGATIVELY CORRELATED
Apache Oil buys in to bail out BP. We have BP calls. Apache (APA) many of our long term traders know I play a lot, but right now my www.bluechiptoptions.com oil stock recommendation is with another play.
The Apache Oil/BP money could be a trigger for the market.
It is important now as we trade the frenzy in the electronic bet, trying to catch "nuances" in bid/ask and making money that we recognize the triggers that will stimulate. This may be one.
The market should report the second quarter GDP as having 3.0% growth. It's really smaller inventories, but should show again some improvement. It always depends, with news, what the mob psychology sees at that moment.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
We Are "Near Something"
We are "near something." What is it? We saw the market vacillate from theoretical Dow highs of 10,598 to 10,447, right within a trading range that left our longstanding August OEX500 Call available for new buyers as low as 11.40, before the 3 o"clock hour came.
The market is ripe for consolidation, and also ripe for another 150 points before downside. Charts can be read several ways. We remain with our open call position and will issue a new buy to the put, expecting high risk to both trades at this time.
-----------------
LOGIC: Many are upset that President Obama does not show his patriotism by wearing an American Flag on his lapel. Hmm, 95% of all Flag lapels are imported from Communist China
__________________
Barrick Gold reports before the market opens, as does Kellogg. The House Ethics Panel (the very name gets me smiling) begins holding their trial on charges against Rep. Charles Rangel.
Mitsubishi and Nissan report after hours, and Honda and Mazda report tomorrow. Last week on of our core holdings at www.bluechipoptions.com, slimey and disgusting McDonalds (MCD) posted a 12% increase in earnings, mostly by selling high fat smoothies, addicting our youth to obesity.
You are what you eat. It is so interesting here to me is that McDonalds is our culture and has become the worlds. If one just sits and looks at it, that's sad.
With this, for the upside that we see in the market over the short term GE raised its dividend by 20% and reinstated a stock buyback plan. When GE begins buying its stock, and pays us more, it's a solid note in the upside we think will fuel the short term.
The market is ripe for consolidation, and also ripe for another 150 points before downside. Charts can be read several ways. We remain with our open call position and will issue a new buy to the put, expecting high risk to both trades at this time.
-----------------
LOGIC: Many are upset that President Obama does not show his patriotism by wearing an American Flag on his lapel. Hmm, 95% of all Flag lapels are imported from Communist China
__________________
Barrick Gold reports before the market opens, as does Kellogg. The House Ethics Panel (the very name gets me smiling) begins holding their trial on charges against Rep. Charles Rangel.
Mitsubishi and Nissan report after hours, and Honda and Mazda report tomorrow. Last week on of our core holdings at www.bluechipoptions.com, slimey and disgusting McDonalds (MCD) posted a 12% increase in earnings, mostly by selling high fat smoothies, addicting our youth to obesity.
You are what you eat. It is so interesting here to me is that McDonalds is our culture and has become the worlds. If one just sits and looks at it, that's sad.
With this, for the upside that we see in the market over the short term GE raised its dividend by 20% and reinstated a stock buyback plan. When GE begins buying its stock, and pays us more, it's a solid note in the upside we think will fuel the short term.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Chartists Starting to Really Argue
Chartists are now starting to really argue. Is the world to end, a huge correction, or is a oversold move now just down a bit. At BlueChipOptions.com we've made some great money recently recommending soft commodities, such as Mosaic (MOS) and Monsanto (MON) and profiting on both.
Many of our traders follow futures and try to study with us when futures "mean something" and when they are meaningless. For example, this morning we saw lightly fluctuating futures, with only a modest up side. And the reading at 9.32 and 9.35 showed even more "no bias."
As we are playing only the call, for what we think may be the "last top," it was easy to watch the market to wait for best buy. Yesterday, by 3.21 p..m. using the theoretical Dow we went from highs of the day of 10,535, to lows of 10,454.
Traders that had held our August500C came close to our top sell, when it reached $14.00 yesterday. We believe we have just a bit more upside, and will hold any open position to the call, and not yet take a position to the put.
_____________________
32.07% was the implied volatility of the equity market for June 2010; this is an important fact as it was the 4th consecutive monthly increase. We're certain July will be even higher pointing volatility, showing the "intensity" and uncertainty of this market.
Last week Big Ben Bernanke, the son of Bubbles Greenspan, told us "the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. If the recovery seems to be faltering, we need to at least review our options."
This prompted FEAR, GREED, and more FEAR. Republicans, those that protect our assets so well, immediately say "stimulus not working," and "look at the debt being built up."
Pee Partiers are reading the Constitution to see where it talks about stock trading and derivatives. Democrats are haunted by seeing nothing truly ever work because nothing is ever really executed.
Floyd would like now to explain Big Ben's statement to the fragile "Everyman:" "We have not a phucking clue what is happening. If the recovery doesn't make it, we'll have to stimulate the economy again, as unemployment will only rise, while the large corporations make more money."
Many of our traders follow futures and try to study with us when futures "mean something" and when they are meaningless. For example, this morning we saw lightly fluctuating futures, with only a modest up side. And the reading at 9.32 and 9.35 showed even more "no bias."
As we are playing only the call, for what we think may be the "last top," it was easy to watch the market to wait for best buy. Yesterday, by 3.21 p..m. using the theoretical Dow we went from highs of the day of 10,535, to lows of 10,454.
Traders that had held our August500C came close to our top sell, when it reached $14.00 yesterday. We believe we have just a bit more upside, and will hold any open position to the call, and not yet take a position to the put.
_____________________
32.07% was the implied volatility of the equity market for June 2010; this is an important fact as it was the 4th consecutive monthly increase. We're certain July will be even higher pointing volatility, showing the "intensity" and uncertainty of this market.
Last week Big Ben Bernanke, the son of Bubbles Greenspan, told us "the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. If the recovery seems to be faltering, we need to at least review our options."
This prompted FEAR, GREED, and more FEAR. Republicans, those that protect our assets so well, immediately say "stimulus not working," and "look at the debt being built up."
Pee Partiers are reading the Constitution to see where it talks about stock trading and derivatives. Democrats are haunted by seeing nothing truly ever work because nothing is ever really executed.
Floyd would like now to explain Big Ben's statement to the fragile "Everyman:" "We have not a phucking clue what is happening. If the recovery doesn't make it, we'll have to stimulate the economy again, as unemployment will only rise, while the large corporations make more money."
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
We Did it Again
Well, we did it again. Our handy OEX August 500C hit lows of 10.30, and highs of 12.40 by 1.15 p.m. Most traders did buy below prior day close, but following futures knew it unlike there would be huge whipsaw. This is where it is very important to "be on your own" and to "judge the market." I entered, for example, at 10.80 and sold at 11.80 for a quick $1.00 profit, and stopped trading for the day by 1.15 p.m. But for those that stuck it out, saw that we could break barriers, by 3 p.m.the market had hit theoretical tops, and the August 500 Call bought could have been sold for as high as 12.70
We came right to the Dow Projection top with a theoretical Dow at 10,540 in early trading. We believe there may be one more day of upside, perhaps two, and again will play the same issue, noting the higher risk, and that we think we'll soon be oversold and the market ready to correct. It is now a matter of "what trigger," good or bad, and whether FEAR or GREED take control. Wanna bet?
__________
Valued and esteemed chartists sent this update out over the weekend:
-- DOW AND NASDAQ CROSS BACK OVER 200-DAY LINES
-- THAT INCREASES ODDS FOR SUMMER RALLY
-- EMERGING MARKETS ARE LEADING RALLY
-- % NYSE STOCKS TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE TURNS UP
We see a necessary downturn taking place, a sell off, before sell offs in portfolios, and sense that the last few days of July will be strongly up. We see within this enough whipsaw to create real sell off, and to move right back up.
Stocks have rallied 3.6% on upbeat earnings. Interest rates are near to zero. As we watch the whipsaw, we almost forget the market gained, or then that it lost. It becomes a gambling pit with electronic pockets. Trading by rules becomes even more important.
If we see it right stocks, within whipsaw, will rally up to perhaps August 2nd, and we'll then see a several week slow down, before more upside. At www.bluechipoptions.com we have strategies on what to do long term. Check out what we do.
We came right to the Dow Projection top with a theoretical Dow at 10,540 in early trading. We believe there may be one more day of upside, perhaps two, and again will play the same issue, noting the higher risk, and that we think we'll soon be oversold and the market ready to correct. It is now a matter of "what trigger," good or bad, and whether FEAR or GREED take control. Wanna bet?
__________
Valued and esteemed chartists sent this update out over the weekend:
-- DOW AND NASDAQ CROSS BACK OVER 200-DAY LINES
-- THAT INCREASES ODDS FOR SUMMER RALLY
-- EMERGING MARKETS ARE LEADING RALLY
-- % NYSE STOCKS TRADING OVER 200-DAY AVERAGE TURNS UP
We see a necessary downturn taking place, a sell off, before sell offs in portfolios, and sense that the last few days of July will be strongly up. We see within this enough whipsaw to create real sell off, and to move right back up.
Stocks have rallied 3.6% on upbeat earnings. Interest rates are near to zero. As we watch the whipsaw, we almost forget the market gained, or then that it lost. It becomes a gambling pit with electronic pockets. Trading by rules becomes even more important.
If we see it right stocks, within whipsaw, will rally up to perhaps August 2nd, and we'll then see a several week slow down, before more upside. At www.bluechipoptions.com we have strategies on what to do long term. Check out what we do.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Deep Breaths and Blows
We believe that the market will continue this endless whipsaw and churning throughout August, more to the upside, and that stock holders will, as they have gained this past year, nothing.
We have been in a market that not just breathes, but appears to take deep breaths and blows. As one studies the market moves of 2010 no one has made money but traders that trade right. It's not really a stock market as much as a gambling pit with electronic pockets.
Just think:
7/16-260 point drop
7/19-50 points up
7/20-120 point drop, only to close 75 points above the prior day close, with 195 point swings throughout the day
7/21-160 point drop, rallying 60 points near day end
7/22-Up 200 points
7/23-Down 70 points, to end up 120 points.
All of this whipsaw points to cycles, Gann, mooncycles, Obama the Communist, and Lindsay Lohan being the causes.
From watching the analysts explain their charts, reversing opinions in the middle of the day, Floyd has learned this is perhaps our first completely
WTF? market.
WTF is extreme science for those of you that know the meaning.
As we see it, and note in our Dow projections, we have been contrarian to the upside for weeks and had all winning signals, with most over 50% in return, much higher than we normally expect.
As you study our Dow projections we have successfully profited, almost to the exact number, except for the lowest lows and the highest highs.
We open the week with a likely chance of reversal, but still remain contrarian to the call and the upside top. During the week we'll report on events, triggers, and "causes."
We have been in a market that not just breathes, but appears to take deep breaths and blows. As one studies the market moves of 2010 no one has made money but traders that trade right. It's not really a stock market as much as a gambling pit with electronic pockets.
Just think:
7/16-260 point drop
7/19-50 points up
7/20-120 point drop, only to close 75 points above the prior day close, with 195 point swings throughout the day
7/21-160 point drop, rallying 60 points near day end
7/22-Up 200 points
7/23-Down 70 points, to end up 120 points.
All of this whipsaw points to cycles, Gann, mooncycles, Obama the Communist, and Lindsay Lohan being the causes.
From watching the analysts explain their charts, reversing opinions in the middle of the day, Floyd has learned this is perhaps our first completely
WTF? market.
WTF is extreme science for those of you that know the meaning.
As we see it, and note in our Dow projections, we have been contrarian to the upside for weeks and had all winning signals, with most over 50% in return, much higher than we normally expect.
As you study our Dow projections we have successfully profited, almost to the exact number, except for the lowest lows and the highest highs.
We open the week with a likely chance of reversal, but still remain contrarian to the call and the upside top. During the week we'll report on events, triggers, and "causes."
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Again, We've not had a Loss This Week
All week the chartists have told us the "end of the world," changing their discussion as the market shifts. Yesterday we were again rewarded with our contrarian "in our face" analysis of Wall Street.
The market opened UP, and continued to move up on good earnings to a theoretical Dow high of 10403. We may see a reciprocal whipsaw from the massive moves, but the real news is that yet again our August 500C, bought as low as 3.90, and averaged cost for most traders. The 500 Call hit highs of 10.10 yesterday for a 100% return plus for most of our traders.
Again we have not had a loss this week, and continue to trade contrarian to the call, still seeing upside.
We'll not issue a signal for the day, as we believe it's an anything could happen day, and we do not want to hold inventory over the weekend.
Remember, when you are making money, and traders you have BEEN making money for weeks in a row on our contrarian in your fact attitude on the market, always be cautious of GREED.
We've simply done too well and do not want to slow our momentum. If open to trading, only day trade, and exit by day end.
Have a great weekend, and count your money.
If you are not making money right now on our options system, please write me, as conditions have been absolutely perfect for three weeks, all while the talking heads babble.
My favorite: Apple will fall. Antennagate. Jobs came on and said "shove it," you've created a phucking frenzy over nothing and our www.bluechipoptions.com also played this right.
________________
Charles Nenner Research, recently on CNBC, and a true analyst of the market, doesn't see a long position in the S&P 500 until it closes above 1109. The bounce may indeed be over, says Nenner, when the S&P closed under 1075.
I noted this past week the Dow Jones closed for three days on the 200 day moving average. Overall in the market in our BlueChipOption service we are also investors and "non investors" in Gold and Silver at various times.
We sold all of our Gold and Silver holdings a few months back at 1170 area. The market for GLD moved up almost 80 more points, then held in trade range, and we are now watching for could be a downside target. GLD appears to be following the Euro. This will effect the OEX.
Write for info on my thoughts on Gold and Silver and to hear a bit about Blue Chip Options. info@oexoptions.com and you'll get right to me.
The market opened UP, and continued to move up on good earnings to a theoretical Dow high of 10403. We may see a reciprocal whipsaw from the massive moves, but the real news is that yet again our August 500C, bought as low as 3.90, and averaged cost for most traders. The 500 Call hit highs of 10.10 yesterday for a 100% return plus for most of our traders.
Again we have not had a loss this week, and continue to trade contrarian to the call, still seeing upside.
We'll not issue a signal for the day, as we believe it's an anything could happen day, and we do not want to hold inventory over the weekend.
Remember, when you are making money, and traders you have BEEN making money for weeks in a row on our contrarian in your fact attitude on the market, always be cautious of GREED.
We've simply done too well and do not want to slow our momentum. If open to trading, only day trade, and exit by day end.
Have a great weekend, and count your money.
If you are not making money right now on our options system, please write me, as conditions have been absolutely perfect for three weeks, all while the talking heads babble.
My favorite: Apple will fall. Antennagate. Jobs came on and said "shove it," you've created a phucking frenzy over nothing and our www.bluechipoptions.com also played this right.
________________
Charles Nenner Research, recently on CNBC, and a true analyst of the market, doesn't see a long position in the S&P 500 until it closes above 1109. The bounce may indeed be over, says Nenner, when the S&P closed under 1075.
I noted this past week the Dow Jones closed for three days on the 200 day moving average. Overall in the market in our BlueChipOption service we are also investors and "non investors" in Gold and Silver at various times.
We sold all of our Gold and Silver holdings a few months back at 1170 area. The market for GLD moved up almost 80 more points, then held in trade range, and we are now watching for could be a downside target. GLD appears to be following the Euro. This will effect the OEX.
Write for info on my thoughts on Gold and Silver and to hear a bit about Blue Chip Options. info@oexoptions.com and you'll get right to me.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
A Huge Earnings Day
John Murphy from Stock Charts:
-- IBM AND CHIP STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER
-- SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX THREATENS 200-DAY AVERAGE
-- NASDAQ 100 IS IN DANGER OF DEATH CROSS
-- CORPORATE BONDS PAY HIGHER YIELDS BUT TREASURIES ARE SAFER
Floyd from OEX:
-The world is filled with idiots. Earnings are irrelevant to the longer term performance of a blue chip stock, but IBM showed great profits, tepid earnings, and boom.
-The Death Cross was made up by people that do drugs.
-The world is not over, and the use of the 200 day moving average always is used by advantage positively or negatively by chartists.
-Who says treasuries are safer?
We just watched the market drop, bought our August 500C as low as 4.00, sold to highs of 5.10 for a day trade by 1.38 p.m., and waited the rest of the day.......just another short hour to see it hit 7.30, and the Dow to struggle into positive territory.
________________
Today Big Ben Bernanke gives his semi-annual report card on the monetary policy and the economy. We think he'll say we are softly recovering, and that it will take a long time, and may require more stimulus. He may leave the stimulus stuff out but believe me, they are thinking about it. Tomorrow he "reprises" his report before the House Financial Service Committee, who are all Congressmen that have never had a job of any sort.
The SEC, still learning how to use the abacus, is considering reform of mutual fund fee structures.
More important to look forward to is the results Friday of the European Bank Stress tests.
Today is a huge day for earnings: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, The Evil Coca Cola Company, and AX and Capital One tomorrow. These results will influence the market.
Most all know that tomorrow's housing report for existing home sales will be shit, declining from the prior month.
Monsanto (MON) and Mosaic (MOS in option format) are both performing well.
-- IBM AND CHIP STOCKS LEAD MARKET LOWER
-- SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX THREATENS 200-DAY AVERAGE
-- NASDAQ 100 IS IN DANGER OF DEATH CROSS
-- CORPORATE BONDS PAY HIGHER YIELDS BUT TREASURIES ARE SAFER
Floyd from OEX:
-The world is filled with idiots. Earnings are irrelevant to the longer term performance of a blue chip stock, but IBM showed great profits, tepid earnings, and boom.
-The Death Cross was made up by people that do drugs.
-The world is not over, and the use of the 200 day moving average always is used by advantage positively or negatively by chartists.
-Who says treasuries are safer?
We just watched the market drop, bought our August 500C as low as 4.00, sold to highs of 5.10 for a day trade by 1.38 p.m., and waited the rest of the day.......just another short hour to see it hit 7.30, and the Dow to struggle into positive territory.
________________
Today Big Ben Bernanke gives his semi-annual report card on the monetary policy and the economy. We think he'll say we are softly recovering, and that it will take a long time, and may require more stimulus. He may leave the stimulus stuff out but believe me, they are thinking about it. Tomorrow he "reprises" his report before the House Financial Service Committee, who are all Congressmen that have never had a job of any sort.
The SEC, still learning how to use the abacus, is considering reform of mutual fund fee structures.
More important to look forward to is the results Friday of the European Bank Stress tests.
Today is a huge day for earnings: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, The Evil Coca Cola Company, and AX and Capital One tomorrow. These results will influence the market.
Most all know that tomorrow's housing report for existing home sales will be shit, declining from the prior month.
Monsanto (MON) and Mosaic (MOS in option format) are both performing well.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
A Feeding Frenzy
Through 1 p.m. the market moved in a trade range that is now almost "imagined" around the 10,070 potential bottoms. Gold and Silver dropped. We now see support lines on GLD at 1175, but suggest short term that Gold itself may trade range.
By 3.48 p.m. we had exhausted ourselves in lackluster summer trading, and a "trade range" developing.
Much like the iPhone4 we believe the market has begun a feeding frenzy of what is wrong, and what could happen.
The market, again before the classic afternoon trading hours, hit theoretical Dow bottoms of 10,033, to highs of 10,210.
The August 500Call was available as a new buy, below prior day close, as low as 5.05 in early morning trading. The endless gyrations thereafter allowed only tight profits and "trade watching up until the later hours of the trading day." We Do NOT Think A Trade Range Developing, but instead a clear bias
_________
You truly could not make this stuff up. For what they did, and what it caused:
AIG Agrees to $725 Million Settlement of Securities Suit
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575371591698030242.html
_______________
On Wednesday, 7/21 Big Ben Bernanke gives his semi-annual report card on the monetary policy and the economy. We think he'll say we are softly recovering, and that it will take a long time, and may require more stimulus. He may leave the stimulus stuff out but believe me, they are thinking about it.
The S&P 500 is trading only 12.4 times what companies are expected to earn over the next four quarters, below the 14.3 multiple of last year (Reuters). I see this as yet another sign of our FEAR.
The market dropped 270 points on Friday when Bank of America dropped 9.2%, it's worst one day drubbing in 15 months. What was interesting: Bank of America news was NOT bad. Our expectations were unreasonably high, and we set the tone immediately for FEAR and sell off.
We write about the whipsaws and giant movements of last week because they are either part of moon cycles algorithms (the last ten day period important in moon cycles) of natural law, or in other words, a "special event" or were/are they the advent of a return to a deeper bottom? We think the market has stronger potential to hold longer term.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
With last Friday's massive drop here were chartists points of view intraday on Friday. Compare them to where the market is today, and what is different from their perspective.
We remain contraian short term bulls, believing a downside test to 9800 area likely, with a rebound to as high as 10,550+. This could begin to occur without even a downside test.
A short term summer rally is perfect fishing for Wall Street, to bring the individual investor in, get the card game going again, and figure ways on Wall Street to be "creative around the new legislation."
The market will improve in bursts, with volatility becoming the norm. We waited a day to show you Friday's "expert" chartist commentary:
-- SPY FORMS LOWER HIGH WITH WEEKLY REVERSAL
-- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE FAILS TO BREAK RESISTANCE
-- NYSE AD LINE FORMS LOWER HIGH AS SMALL-CAPS WEAKEN
-- NET NEW HIGHS TURN NEGATIVE
-- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCE WEIGH ON MARKET
-- KEY SECTORS TESTING SUPPORT LEVELS
-- STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES
-- BREADTH INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL
-- RISING EURO WEIGHS ON GOLD
-- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT
-- VOLATILITY INDICES TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES
-- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT SHOWS THE S&P 500 IN WAVE 4
-- AN ALTERNATIVE ABC CORRECTION AND SUMMER RALLY
We think we will have a burst up on the "alternative ABC correction."
By 3.48 p.m. we had exhausted ourselves in lackluster summer trading, and a "trade range" developing.
Much like the iPhone4 we believe the market has begun a feeding frenzy of what is wrong, and what could happen.
The market, again before the classic afternoon trading hours, hit theoretical Dow bottoms of 10,033, to highs of 10,210.
The August 500Call was available as a new buy, below prior day close, as low as 5.05 in early morning trading. The endless gyrations thereafter allowed only tight profits and "trade watching up until the later hours of the trading day." We Do NOT Think A Trade Range Developing, but instead a clear bias
_________
You truly could not make this stuff up. For what they did, and what it caused:
AIG Agrees to $725 Million Settlement of Securities Suit
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704229004575371591698030242.html
_______________
On Wednesday, 7/21 Big Ben Bernanke gives his semi-annual report card on the monetary policy and the economy. We think he'll say we are softly recovering, and that it will take a long time, and may require more stimulus. He may leave the stimulus stuff out but believe me, they are thinking about it.
The S&P 500 is trading only 12.4 times what companies are expected to earn over the next four quarters, below the 14.3 multiple of last year (Reuters). I see this as yet another sign of our FEAR.
The market dropped 270 points on Friday when Bank of America dropped 9.2%, it's worst one day drubbing in 15 months. What was interesting: Bank of America news was NOT bad. Our expectations were unreasonably high, and we set the tone immediately for FEAR and sell off.
We write about the whipsaws and giant movements of last week because they are either part of moon cycles algorithms (the last ten day period important in moon cycles) of natural law, or in other words, a "special event" or were/are they the advent of a return to a deeper bottom? We think the market has stronger potential to hold longer term.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
With last Friday's massive drop here were chartists points of view intraday on Friday. Compare them to where the market is today, and what is different from their perspective.
We remain contraian short term bulls, believing a downside test to 9800 area likely, with a rebound to as high as 10,550+. This could begin to occur without even a downside test.
A short term summer rally is perfect fishing for Wall Street, to bring the individual investor in, get the card game going again, and figure ways on Wall Street to be "creative around the new legislation."
The market will improve in bursts, with volatility becoming the norm. We waited a day to show you Friday's "expert" chartist commentary:
-- SPY FORMS LOWER HIGH WITH WEEKLY REVERSAL
-- NASDAQ AD VOLUME LINE FAILS TO BREAK RESISTANCE
-- NYSE AD LINE FORMS LOWER HIGH AS SMALL-CAPS WEAKEN
-- NET NEW HIGHS TURN NEGATIVE
-- CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY AND FINANCE WEIGH ON MARKET
-- KEY SECTORS TESTING SUPPORT LEVELS
-- STOCKS MOVE SHARPLY LOWER TO AFFIRM RESISTANCE ZONES
-- BREADTH INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH OVERALL
-- RISING EURO WEIGHS ON GOLD
-- GOLD BREAKS WEDGE SUPPORT
-- VOLATILITY INDICES TEST IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONES
-- ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT SHOWS THE S&P 500 IN WAVE 4
-- AN ALTERNATIVE ABC CORRECTION AND SUMMER RALLY
We think we will have a burst up on the "alternative ABC correction."
Monday, July 19, 2010
Hyperbole
Last Thursday everything was great, but Friday we hit a 270 point drop on consumer confidence, and fear of economic downturn. The amount of hyperbole you will have read by the time you read this commentary will have you in turmoil:
*The Dow could hit 5000
*The turnaround will take a second stimulus
*Things would be better if McCain were in charge
*Obama is anti-business.
*Goldman Sachs robbed America with a 550 million dollar fine for their greed and sins, a small penance for what they have done to our economy. This was yet another example of where Wall Street still runs the government because the government is run by committees run by lobbyists.
*The Apple problem with antennas has only been reported by .55% of the 3 million that have bought the phone. Is anyone suspicious that all smartphones do this (fact) yet Apple hit the press for a small issue, easily fixed over a short time. BTW, I've had each iPhone, ATT the whole time, traveled the world, and had no worse or better service than any other phone I've used.
It is this type of frenzy that creates FEAR days like Friday. For example, please study how irrelevant the consumer confidence index really is, and what it means.
We took no new positions Friday, but profited every other day last week.
There are three issues we cover in Blue Chip Options (www.blueoptions.com) that will influence the market and the world.
1. BP Stock will surprise everyone
2. Apple's frenzy over the antenna will TEACH Amerika NOTHING about how the media leads them, and false facts
3. The short term outlook for GLD and SLV.
*The Dow could hit 5000
*The turnaround will take a second stimulus
*Things would be better if McCain were in charge
*Obama is anti-business.
*Goldman Sachs robbed America with a 550 million dollar fine for their greed and sins, a small penance for what they have done to our economy. This was yet another example of where Wall Street still runs the government because the government is run by committees run by lobbyists.
*The Apple problem with antennas has only been reported by .55% of the 3 million that have bought the phone. Is anyone suspicious that all smartphones do this (fact) yet Apple hit the press for a small issue, easily fixed over a short time. BTW, I've had each iPhone, ATT the whole time, traveled the world, and had no worse or better service than any other phone I've used.
It is this type of frenzy that creates FEAR days like Friday. For example, please study how irrelevant the consumer confidence index really is, and what it means.
We took no new positions Friday, but profited every other day last week.
There are three issues we cover in Blue Chip Options (www.blueoptions.com) that will influence the market and the world.
1. BP Stock will surprise everyone
2. Apple's frenzy over the antenna will TEACH Amerika NOTHING about how the media leads them, and false facts
3. The short term outlook for GLD and SLV.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
A Simple Day
A simple day on Wall Street. Flat futures, highs of 10,400 by midday, lows of 10,240. The August 500 Call was easily picked up at best buy pricing, as low as 9.60 by 10 a.m.
From there we watched the market fluctuate and dance and begin moving its way back up. We continue to see a stronger upside over the short term, before a turn to downside, and a renewed and stronger upside.
And sure enough by sitting on our hands the August 500 Call, easily bought as low as 9.60, hit tops of 12.40 by 3.45, and we were profitable yet again on the same trade.
My GOD what is wrong. We as a nation willing to help one another? Not for gain?
And next, Amerikans, intent on drilling oil because "it's here, and why get it from the "ragheads," etc philosophy, the basis of the growth of the size of our bellies, and our greed, let's first remember the Ford Expedition or Chevy Suburban before we now read FEAR:
Americans in 73% Majority Oppose Ban on Deepwater Oil Drilling
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Most Americans oppose President Barack Obama’s ban on deepwater oil drilling in response to BP Plc’s Gulf of Mexico spill, even as they hold the company primarily responsible for the incident.
Almost three-fourths, or 73 percent, say a ban is unnecessary, calling the worst oil spill in U.S. history a “freak accident,” according to a Bloomberg National Poll. Barely more than a third say they support drilling less than they did a few months ago. The BP rig sank in April. The administration issued a new moratorium this week after a court rejected a six-month one imposed in May.
“A ban will destroy the economy in that area over nothing,” said poll respondent Ron Smallcomb, 64, a used-car dealer in Mountaintop, Pennsylvania. “This is crazy. If there’s a plane crash you don’t ground all the airlines and stop flying completely.”
Eight in 10 of those questioned in the July 9-12 poll say London-based BP should pay for all damage caused by the spill. Six in 10 say BP, not the federal government, should reimburse wages lost by oil workers laid off because of the moratorium, with 56 percent saying even the possibility of bankruptcy shouldn’t allow the company to escape paying.
Asked who was most to blame for the spill, 44 percent say BP, and 19 percent say lax federal regulations and oversight. One in five say no one is to blame.
“It’s their fault,” Dan Urban, 45, an unemployed restaurant manager in Las Vegas, said of BP. “They are ultimately responsible for what they did whether they go bankrupt or not.”
‘Economic Catastrophe’
While public objections to a drilling ban echo the views of Republican leaders such as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, the sentiment is strong regardless of political leaning: 85 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of independents and 65 percent of Democrats oppose a ban, according to the poll.
Jindal, whose state has been hardest hit by the spill, says a prohibition on drilling is an overreaction that will turn an “environmental disaster into an economic catastrophe,” costing as many as 20,000 jobs in Louisiana alone.
“We need the federal government to do their jobs to ensure drilling is done safely without killing thousands of jobs for our people,” Jindal said in a statement July 13.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar says a ban is a reasonable response to the crisis. “Industry must raise the bar on its practices and answer fundamental questions about deepwater safety,” he said in a statement on July 12.
Not ‘Impending Doom’
“The fact so many people say it was a freak accident is especially telling,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based company that conducted the telephone survey. “People say BP must pay, but there’s no sense of impending doom at the hands of the entire industry.”
The length of the spill, now in its 84th day, may explain why there’s not a broader sense of outrage, she said.
“Perhaps because it’s gone on so long there’s a sense that it is what it is,” Selzer said. “BP is accountable for what they are accountable for, but any sense of vindication you might look to find is absent.”
The Bloomberg National Poll is based on interviews with 1,004 U.S. adults ages 18 or older. Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Making BP pay for the economic damages from the spill even at the risk of bankruptcy is backed by 61 percent of respondents who said they are Democrats, and 54 percent of both Republicans and independents.
‘Accidents Happen’
Eight in 10 of those questioned say BP shouldn’t be assessed penalties beyond payment for damages, such as being banned from future drilling in the U.S. The House Natural Resources Committee yesterday approved an amendment that would bar the company from new offshore leases in the U.S.
“I totally expect them to pay for the damages done, but to ban BP or other companies from future drilling is ridiculous,” said John P. Sennet, 65, a retired manager from AK Steel Corp. in Middletown, Ohio. “I just don’t understand the logic in that -- accidents happen,” he said.
While 73 percent of Democrats say BP should pay for the wages of rig workers laid off because of the drilling moratorium, Republicans are evenly split, with 42 percent saying BP should pay and the same number saying the government should.
BP has allocated $100 million to pay for the missed wages of workers idled by the drilling ban. That money is separate from a $20 billion fund BP has created to cover economic damages caused by the spill."
So BP is now considered a good buy by many, America wants to not risk our waters (other waters okay), and our Gulf of Mexico destroyed for years.
From there we watched the market fluctuate and dance and begin moving its way back up. We continue to see a stronger upside over the short term, before a turn to downside, and a renewed and stronger upside.
And sure enough by sitting on our hands the August 500 Call, easily bought as low as 9.60, hit tops of 12.40 by 3.45, and we were profitable yet again on the same trade.
My GOD what is wrong. We as a nation willing to help one another? Not for gain?
And next, Amerikans, intent on drilling oil because "it's here, and why get it from the "ragheads," etc philosophy, the basis of the growth of the size of our bellies, and our greed, let's first remember the Ford Expedition or Chevy Suburban before we now read FEAR:
Americans in 73% Majority Oppose Ban on Deepwater Oil Drilling
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Most Americans oppose President Barack Obama’s ban on deepwater oil drilling in response to BP Plc’s Gulf of Mexico spill, even as they hold the company primarily responsible for the incident.
Almost three-fourths, or 73 percent, say a ban is unnecessary, calling the worst oil spill in U.S. history a “freak accident,” according to a Bloomberg National Poll. Barely more than a third say they support drilling less than they did a few months ago. The BP rig sank in April. The administration issued a new moratorium this week after a court rejected a six-month one imposed in May.
“A ban will destroy the economy in that area over nothing,” said poll respondent Ron Smallcomb, 64, a used-car dealer in Mountaintop, Pennsylvania. “This is crazy. If there’s a plane crash you don’t ground all the airlines and stop flying completely.”
Eight in 10 of those questioned in the July 9-12 poll say London-based BP should pay for all damage caused by the spill. Six in 10 say BP, not the federal government, should reimburse wages lost by oil workers laid off because of the moratorium, with 56 percent saying even the possibility of bankruptcy shouldn’t allow the company to escape paying.
Asked who was most to blame for the spill, 44 percent say BP, and 19 percent say lax federal regulations and oversight. One in five say no one is to blame.
“It’s their fault,” Dan Urban, 45, an unemployed restaurant manager in Las Vegas, said of BP. “They are ultimately responsible for what they did whether they go bankrupt or not.”
‘Economic Catastrophe’
While public objections to a drilling ban echo the views of Republican leaders such as Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, the sentiment is strong regardless of political leaning: 85 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of independents and 65 percent of Democrats oppose a ban, according to the poll.
Jindal, whose state has been hardest hit by the spill, says a prohibition on drilling is an overreaction that will turn an “environmental disaster into an economic catastrophe,” costing as many as 20,000 jobs in Louisiana alone.
“We need the federal government to do their jobs to ensure drilling is done safely without killing thousands of jobs for our people,” Jindal said in a statement July 13.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar says a ban is a reasonable response to the crisis. “Industry must raise the bar on its practices and answer fundamental questions about deepwater safety,” he said in a statement on July 12.
Not ‘Impending Doom’
“The fact so many people say it was a freak accident is especially telling,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based company that conducted the telephone survey. “People say BP must pay, but there’s no sense of impending doom at the hands of the entire industry.”
The length of the spill, now in its 84th day, may explain why there’s not a broader sense of outrage, she said.
“Perhaps because it’s gone on so long there’s a sense that it is what it is,” Selzer said. “BP is accountable for what they are accountable for, but any sense of vindication you might look to find is absent.”
The Bloomberg National Poll is based on interviews with 1,004 U.S. adults ages 18 or older. Percentages based on the full sample may have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Making BP pay for the economic damages from the spill even at the risk of bankruptcy is backed by 61 percent of respondents who said they are Democrats, and 54 percent of both Republicans and independents.
‘Accidents Happen’
Eight in 10 of those questioned say BP shouldn’t be assessed penalties beyond payment for damages, such as being banned from future drilling in the U.S. The House Natural Resources Committee yesterday approved an amendment that would bar the company from new offshore leases in the U.S.
“I totally expect them to pay for the damages done, but to ban BP or other companies from future drilling is ridiculous,” said John P. Sennet, 65, a retired manager from AK Steel Corp. in Middletown, Ohio. “I just don’t understand the logic in that -- accidents happen,” he said.
While 73 percent of Democrats say BP should pay for the wages of rig workers laid off because of the drilling moratorium, Republicans are evenly split, with 42 percent saying BP should pay and the same number saying the government should.
BP has allocated $100 million to pay for the missed wages of workers idled by the drilling ban. That money is separate from a $20 billion fund BP has created to cover economic damages caused by the spill."
So BP is now considered a good buy by many, America wants to not risk our waters (other waters okay), and our Gulf of Mexico destroyed for years.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Question Facts
The market opened right at prior day close, after showing a flat and vacillating futures for hours. Our call, recommended the day before, and also available on 7/13 returned up to 68% by early afternoon.
As we hit R3 many subscribers wrote wondering if it's time for downturn. Perhaps, but Floyd's GUT is that the market is ripe for more upside, just for a short time, before another downturn.
Therefore, we're not yet ready to recommend a put, and will put our call out one more time, same series (because we want to learn to fall in love with an option, and understand it, NOT the market).
Remember, question facts.
Question authority.
Do not respect because you are to respect. Respect when it is deserved.
Always make fun of anyone "important;" it helps put it all in perspective. And they are just human.
________________
Yes, you are reading this again. It's what's happening this week.
This is a very big earnings week, with everyone from Google to Campbell Soup reporting, and a big bank, JP Morgan Chase.
Fed minutes are released on Wednesday. Study the economic calendar you got on Monday to know what indicators will "trigger the market" in addition to the strength of movement.
On the numbers: There has been a 7.3 billion dollar decline in revolving debt, including credit cards, in May.
Study what we wrote yesterday. Put it together with the above. We'll give you the last of the puzzle tomorrow.
And now, for a study of FACTS, a good lesson for us:
1. Consumers Report will not recommend the iPhone 4 because of poor reception. (Last year they recommended the Camry as car of year:))
2. Using a case seems to slow the problem.
3. All phones drop calls, and antennas work well in certain areas.
Floydian Thoughts:
I have owned each of the iPhones, including iPhone 4. I have never had any dropped calls or bad access ANY DIFFERENT THAN any other phone I've used it while traveling around the world.
Now, it's true, I like Apple, and have defended it for years against Microphuck, the company that brought you virus protection for their own phucking complicated crap software in which control/alt/delete is a normal world.
I believe, as my daughter succinctly shared with our Blue Chip Option customers yesterday said:
"False facts or not, this isn't a good reflection on Apple's "flawless" brand name. It's something that Microsoft has always dealt with, and a lot of video games and various technology products nowadays, where they just release the product and it's flawed but expect to fix it via upgrades, etc. I think Microsoft's willingess to push out flawed products faster and faster was one of the things that I think made Apple as successful as it is nowadays compared to ten years ago.
False facts and jealousy, absolutely, I agree. But, on some levels it's valid to note - because it was, I think, a bit of a slip up on Apple's part not to be more prepared for this backlash. And, in this technology fast paced world, this does mean a little on Apple losing their competitive edge. Steve Jobs is now put to a higher and higher standard in terms of technology, and Google (with Android competitively taking over much more of the smartphone market) and others are hot on his trail; he's got to be flawless and brilliant next time. And demand is more and more and faster every day (what we carry around in our pockets is more computer than what I had in my dorm room in college, less than ten years ago).
The iPhone 4 tried a new technique with the antenna - a problem plaguing these new smart phones we use so consistently - which could've been big, but didn't work out as well as hoped, regardless of the fact that they're carried by a carrier (AT&T) who simply cannot support their demand. This, and battery life, are part of the the next game. This is part of the evolution of technology which inherently plays a role in the stock market later. While Apple certainly is likely to rebound from this negative press, it's important to watch Google and others in this next major technological revolution."
I also believe Apple is hit by every fricking lobbyist for every phone company and manufacturer with lobbying and games, as they are 4 years ahead of the curve, and these boys play very very dirty.
I laugh, as only one or two people I know have ever had problems with iPhone reception. They have trouble with how much data downloads take place as the Apple is a computer, and ATT's inability to build networks promptly enough.
Is Apple far enough ahead of the curve? Yes. As they can market.
Is Apple loved by users? Yes.
Is MIcrophuck? No
Is Adobe Flash? No, and Jobs believes it won't perform.
I have enjoyed this roll out because America does not appreciate the performance of companies (I've noted) that work outside of the norm.
Because, we are conformists, and buy everything at Walmart, and watch the same TV shows every night that show disemboweled dead people. It's our most popular show on TV.
Stock Brokerage analysis: From trader MR: " I started paper trading again. I must pass along a broker recommendation for Think or Swim to any aspiring trader. A great tool for the OEX trader, they have individual charts for options - not just price grids like many brokers. I can look up a chart for the July 500 call and see what it was trading at yesterday, price range, high, low, to get a feel for a "best buy" price. These charts also show volume bars."They also have a function called On Demand that allows you to turn the trading clock backwards and watch the entire market on any given day (currently back to December 2009)."
He's right. It's one of our three recommended brokerages and they do a great job.
As we hit R3 many subscribers wrote wondering if it's time for downturn. Perhaps, but Floyd's GUT is that the market is ripe for more upside, just for a short time, before another downturn.
Therefore, we're not yet ready to recommend a put, and will put our call out one more time, same series (because we want to learn to fall in love with an option, and understand it, NOT the market).
Remember, question facts.
Question authority.
Do not respect because you are to respect. Respect when it is deserved.
Always make fun of anyone "important;" it helps put it all in perspective. And they are just human.
________________
Yes, you are reading this again. It's what's happening this week.
This is a very big earnings week, with everyone from Google to Campbell Soup reporting, and a big bank, JP Morgan Chase.
Fed minutes are released on Wednesday. Study the economic calendar you got on Monday to know what indicators will "trigger the market" in addition to the strength of movement.
On the numbers: There has been a 7.3 billion dollar decline in revolving debt, including credit cards, in May.
Study what we wrote yesterday. Put it together with the above. We'll give you the last of the puzzle tomorrow.
And now, for a study of FACTS, a good lesson for us:
1. Consumers Report will not recommend the iPhone 4 because of poor reception. (Last year they recommended the Camry as car of year:))
2. Using a case seems to slow the problem.
3. All phones drop calls, and antennas work well in certain areas.
Floydian Thoughts:
I have owned each of the iPhones, including iPhone 4. I have never had any dropped calls or bad access ANY DIFFERENT THAN any other phone I've used it while traveling around the world.
Now, it's true, I like Apple, and have defended it for years against Microphuck, the company that brought you virus protection for their own phucking complicated crap software in which control/alt/delete is a normal world.
I believe, as my daughter succinctly shared with our Blue Chip Option customers yesterday said:
"False facts or not, this isn't a good reflection on Apple's "flawless" brand name. It's something that Microsoft has always dealt with, and a lot of video games and various technology products nowadays, where they just release the product and it's flawed but expect to fix it via upgrades, etc. I think Microsoft's willingess to push out flawed products faster and faster was one of the things that I think made Apple as successful as it is nowadays compared to ten years ago.
False facts and jealousy, absolutely, I agree. But, on some levels it's valid to note - because it was, I think, a bit of a slip up on Apple's part not to be more prepared for this backlash. And, in this technology fast paced world, this does mean a little on Apple losing their competitive edge. Steve Jobs is now put to a higher and higher standard in terms of technology, and Google (with Android competitively taking over much more of the smartphone market) and others are hot on his trail; he's got to be flawless and brilliant next time. And demand is more and more and faster every day (what we carry around in our pockets is more computer than what I had in my dorm room in college, less than ten years ago).
The iPhone 4 tried a new technique with the antenna - a problem plaguing these new smart phones we use so consistently - which could've been big, but didn't work out as well as hoped, regardless of the fact that they're carried by a carrier (AT&T) who simply cannot support their demand. This, and battery life, are part of the the next game. This is part of the evolution of technology which inherently plays a role in the stock market later. While Apple certainly is likely to rebound from this negative press, it's important to watch Google and others in this next major technological revolution."
I also believe Apple is hit by every fricking lobbyist for every phone company and manufacturer with lobbying and games, as they are 4 years ahead of the curve, and these boys play very very dirty.
I laugh, as only one or two people I know have ever had problems with iPhone reception. They have trouble with how much data downloads take place as the Apple is a computer, and ATT's inability to build networks promptly enough.
Is Apple far enough ahead of the curve? Yes. As they can market.
Is Apple loved by users? Yes.
Is MIcrophuck? No
Is Adobe Flash? No, and Jobs believes it won't perform.
I have enjoyed this roll out because America does not appreciate the performance of companies (I've noted) that work outside of the norm.
Because, we are conformists, and buy everything at Walmart, and watch the same TV shows every night that show disemboweled dead people. It's our most popular show on TV.
Stock Brokerage analysis: From trader MR: " I started paper trading again. I must pass along a broker recommendation for Think or Swim to any aspiring trader. A great tool for the OEX trader, they have individual charts for options - not just price grids like many brokers. I can look up a chart for the July 500 call and see what it was trading at yesterday, price range, high, low, to get a feel for a "best buy" price. These charts also show volume bars."They also have a function called On Demand that allows you to turn the trading clock backwards and watch the entire market on any given day (currently back to December 2009)."
He's right. It's one of our three recommended brokerages and they do a great job.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Flat as a Pancake
Lonely, low volume and flat as a pancake....that's how we started the week. The August 500 Call was available.
This is a very big earnings week, with everyone from Google to Campbell Soup reporting, and a big bank, JP Morgan Chase.
Fed minutes are released on Wednesday. Study the economic calendar you got on Monday to know what indicators will "trigger the market" in addition to the strength of movement.
There has been a 9.1 billion decline in consumer credit for May. This is good, but bad, as people can only spend on credit. Many are living paycheck to paycheck.
Home prices in 20 large American cities rose by 3.8% in the year to the end of April. Some housing markets have begun recovering from their lows. In San Francisco prices actually increased 18% from April a year ago. And as I travel some areas of the U.S, have not lost the value of their homes like those in Florida, California and other true boom markets....Miami to Wyoming
______________
The most important piece of the jigsaw of a rising economy is not bullshit like "buy less from China," or "the government caused this and now we're becoming socialists."
Idiots think this. (Sorry if you are one)
A large part of the jigsaw is that consumers owe $14 trillion. This is all Obama's fault, like everything else. He and those Democrats (not a single Republican) are not focusing on JOBS that will allow people to spend.
Here's the facts:
1. There is $14 TRILLION in household debt, and $10.5 TRILLION of that mortgage related, thanks to Bubbles Greenspan.
2. Americans have now decided being upside down that is okay to PHUCK your bank. We predict more and more will just walk away from their mortgages as their homes lose more value.
Reduced spending may occur with this, as will rising delinquencies on credit cards and mortgage accounts.
3. A Floydian Fact of real merit: There is an astonishing decline in bank deposits, clear evidence we as a public are starting to burn through the cash.
4. Stephanie Pomboy, Market Maven, says there is almost a zero chance of our ratio of debt returning to 65%, what it was before Bubbles Greenspan came to head the FEDS, and we all believed him GOD, because the money was free. She analyzes that to decline our debt by 6.3 trillion, or increase income by 9 trillion would bring us to this 65% reasonable and healthy rate, would take up to 10 years to occur, and has a ZERO chance of occurring because 40% of our households now spend every dollar they make just to keep their heads above water.
_____________________
And here's some babbly from the Bubbler, the guy that started it out, Mr. Bubbles Greenspan:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy may be undergoing what he called a “pause,” and that he can’t rule out the possibility of a so- called double-dip recession.
“Of course, there’s a possibility,” Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC today. “The trouble is there’s always a possibility in both directions.”
Greenspan, who ran the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said “it’s more than likely” that a “pause” is occurring in the world’s largest economy. Inventory accumulation “has stopped” and production “has flattened out,” the 84-year-old former central banker said.
Companies added 83,000 workers to their payrolls in June, less than forecast by economists, the Labor Department report said last week. The report capped a month of data on housing and manufacturing that point to a slowdown in the economy.
Stocks rose today, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its first-three day rally since April, after the Labor Department reported that claims for unemployment benefits fell last week more than forecast and the International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for global growth in 2010.
“Stock market behavior over the last several days” has been “encouraging,” Greenspan said after S&P 500 index rose 0.9 percent to 1,070.25 at 4 p.m. in New York, its highest close since June 28. “Banks are scared, but, then again, so are businesses."
He added that there are “still huge imbalances in the flow of funds,” and that China’s currency remains “undervalued.” After he spoke, the U.S. Treasury Department released a report to Congress saying the yuan “remains undervalued,” while stopping short of branding the country a currency manipulation.
This is a very big earnings week, with everyone from Google to Campbell Soup reporting, and a big bank, JP Morgan Chase.
Fed minutes are released on Wednesday. Study the economic calendar you got on Monday to know what indicators will "trigger the market" in addition to the strength of movement.
There has been a 9.1 billion decline in consumer credit for May. This is good, but bad, as people can only spend on credit. Many are living paycheck to paycheck.
Home prices in 20 large American cities rose by 3.8% in the year to the end of April. Some housing markets have begun recovering from their lows. In San Francisco prices actually increased 18% from April a year ago. And as I travel some areas of the U.S, have not lost the value of their homes like those in Florida, California and other true boom markets....Miami to Wyoming
______________
The most important piece of the jigsaw of a rising economy is not bullshit like "buy less from China," or "the government caused this and now we're becoming socialists."
Idiots think this. (Sorry if you are one)
A large part of the jigsaw is that consumers owe $14 trillion. This is all Obama's fault, like everything else. He and those Democrats (not a single Republican) are not focusing on JOBS that will allow people to spend.
Here's the facts:
1. There is $14 TRILLION in household debt, and $10.5 TRILLION of that mortgage related, thanks to Bubbles Greenspan.
2. Americans have now decided being upside down that is okay to PHUCK your bank. We predict more and more will just walk away from their mortgages as their homes lose more value.
Reduced spending may occur with this, as will rising delinquencies on credit cards and mortgage accounts.
3. A Floydian Fact of real merit: There is an astonishing decline in bank deposits, clear evidence we as a public are starting to burn through the cash.
4. Stephanie Pomboy, Market Maven, says there is almost a zero chance of our ratio of debt returning to 65%, what it was before Bubbles Greenspan came to head the FEDS, and we all believed him GOD, because the money was free. She analyzes that to decline our debt by 6.3 trillion, or increase income by 9 trillion would bring us to this 65% reasonable and healthy rate, would take up to 10 years to occur, and has a ZERO chance of occurring because 40% of our households now spend every dollar they make just to keep their heads above water.
_____________________
And here's some babbly from the Bubbler, the guy that started it out, Mr. Bubbles Greenspan:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy may be undergoing what he called a “pause,” and that he can’t rule out the possibility of a so- called double-dip recession.
“Of course, there’s a possibility,” Greenspan said in an interview on CNBC today. “The trouble is there’s always a possibility in both directions.”
Greenspan, who ran the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said “it’s more than likely” that a “pause” is occurring in the world’s largest economy. Inventory accumulation “has stopped” and production “has flattened out,” the 84-year-old former central banker said.
Companies added 83,000 workers to their payrolls in June, less than forecast by economists, the Labor Department report said last week. The report capped a month of data on housing and manufacturing that point to a slowdown in the economy.
Stocks rose today, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its first-three day rally since April, after the Labor Department reported that claims for unemployment benefits fell last week more than forecast and the International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for global growth in 2010.
“Stock market behavior over the last several days” has been “encouraging,” Greenspan said after S&P 500 index rose 0.9 percent to 1,070.25 at 4 p.m. in New York, its highest close since June 28. “Banks are scared, but, then again, so are businesses."
He added that there are “still huge imbalances in the flow of funds,” and that China’s currency remains “undervalued.” After he spoke, the U.S. Treasury Department released a report to Congress saying the yuan “remains undervalued,” while stopping short of branding the country a currency manipulation.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Death Cross
This past week the news media has been filled with information about the "death cross," a charting analysis that describes the crossing of the 50 day moving average below the 200 day moving average. Surveyed since 1930 when the death cross occurs, the market is up again a month or two later. As the "death cross" hit the news circuits more "fear" entered the market, we hit more oversold conditions, and finally the market corrected itself, short term, closing the week over 10,000 and actually up for the week.
Study our Dow projections carefully. We've been right on the target for weeks, and this week have narrowed our support/resistance lines in a new analysis.
After last week's 90% plus returns, and no losses, we're here at the table again.
This testimonial may help in your trading:
"Floyd, I've paper traded for over 90 days and by the end of the 90 days was making money. I wish I had listened to you first, before I traded right when I signed up for the service and lost 7k in days.
The good news is that I have learned to Point and Figure chart, and have learned how NOT to read the news, and to seriously question the facts provided us. It has helped my trading.
I bought on both the call trades last week, single buys, only, and turned a profit of over $11,000. I'm still ahead, this means, despite my stupid 'before reading the manual' trades.
Thank you for your style, commentary, and for telling me to spend lots more time on the website in the password area.
Feel free to use me as a reference. It's the first service that has been honest with me" AWL, Chicago
Study our Dow projections carefully. We've been right on the target for weeks, and this week have narrowed our support/resistance lines in a new analysis.
After last week's 90% plus returns, and no losses, we're here at the table again.
This testimonial may help in your trading:
"Floyd, I've paper traded for over 90 days and by the end of the 90 days was making money. I wish I had listened to you first, before I traded right when I signed up for the service and lost 7k in days.
The good news is that I have learned to Point and Figure chart, and have learned how NOT to read the news, and to seriously question the facts provided us. It has helped my trading.
I bought on both the call trades last week, single buys, only, and turned a profit of over $11,000. I'm still ahead, this means, despite my stupid 'before reading the manual' trades.
Thank you for your style, commentary, and for telling me to spend lots more time on the website in the password area.
Feel free to use me as a reference. It's the first service that has been honest with me" AWL, Chicago
Friday, July 9, 2010
Cynical For a Day
We did not play the market as we had to breathe, and let these oversold conditions breathe. The 3 p.m. hour being the most key and important I go online always at 2.30 or so to see where the Dow has been playing.
Yesterday everybody was tired, no one was ready to "go more" and the market held on. But the 3 pm. boys took us up, and we're now hitting good resistance lines. It's exciting, as we have bias that could actually conclude now and a stronger upside.
So we'll be cynical for a day. Watch futures carefully. Any movements to the put, and if risk oriented, buy our new signal for a day trade, but high risk.
We've had a great week. Another day up shows we are truly on the next cycle.
It is important to note that Gold is falling, for the short term, while the market slightly advances. Gold is also oversold, and a surprising downside could occur, one more test of support lines, as low as 9875. We add this to our Dow Projections. There is enough unsteadiness that a whipsaw surge returning FEAR could occur. We offer a day trade to the put today, not for the faint hearted.
Private employees toil 13.5 months to earn what federal works do in 12.
Because so many people lose money trading options people believe it is option trading that is wrong, not them. Options are just numbers, and it's very possible to make great profits on them.
It's this simple.
How to Trade:
1. Set stop loss and profit goals in advance.
2. Follow the rules you set
3. Follow the $'s you were willing to invest, and do not invest more or less
4. If you start losing too much, stop trading and paper trade again
5. "Fall in love" with the bid/ask of a specific STRIKE point while it is within trading range, and only follow that position. Make your money on an option you KNOW
6. Keep your emotions out of trading.
7. Hide 10% to 15% of any profits immediately and put in a separate account. Lock profits away from any "gambler" in your character.
Yesterday everybody was tired, no one was ready to "go more" and the market held on. But the 3 pm. boys took us up, and we're now hitting good resistance lines. It's exciting, as we have bias that could actually conclude now and a stronger upside.
So we'll be cynical for a day. Watch futures carefully. Any movements to the put, and if risk oriented, buy our new signal for a day trade, but high risk.
We've had a great week. Another day up shows we are truly on the next cycle.
It is important to note that Gold is falling, for the short term, while the market slightly advances. Gold is also oversold, and a surprising downside could occur, one more test of support lines, as low as 9875. We add this to our Dow Projections. There is enough unsteadiness that a whipsaw surge returning FEAR could occur. We offer a day trade to the put today, not for the faint hearted.
Private employees toil 13.5 months to earn what federal works do in 12.
Because so many people lose money trading options people believe it is option trading that is wrong, not them. Options are just numbers, and it's very possible to make great profits on them.
It's this simple.
How to Trade:
1. Set stop loss and profit goals in advance.
2. Follow the rules you set
3. Follow the $'s you were willing to invest, and do not invest more or less
4. If you start losing too much, stop trading and paper trade again
5. "Fall in love" with the bid/ask of a specific STRIKE point while it is within trading range, and only follow that position. Make your money on an option you KNOW
6. Keep your emotions out of trading.
7. Hide 10% to 15% of any profits immediately and put in a separate account. Lock profits away from any "gambler" in your character.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
The World Was Good though Gold Rose?? Maybe Not
The world is now good, everything is better, and Lindsey Lohan is going to jail for 90 days......and the market soared over 274 points to hit a theoretical Dow top of 10060.
Most importantly, the market held above 10,000, a hard psychological number. Let's hope it holds upside in today's trading.
No new trades yesterday were possible without paying above prior day close. But let's look closely again at our 95% potential profits on 7/6 and the following on the call yesterday
OEX JUL 17 2010 460.00 CALL
Last [Tick] 23.45[+]
This is how high the signal reached. We bought this option as low as $10.00 yesterday, and gave our top sells at 17.90. We're sure this morning no one believed us, but the triggers have been showing. Most of you bought this call Tuesday and were ready to make second buys. There was no need and your profits could have been as high as 74% with ease, and returns to 134% reported by many subscribers.
We have simply kicked ass and taken names the past two days. We open the day with no new position, and will not have one. We have had two days of exceptional profits, and it's time to rest, and to let the market decide what it just did.
Gold rose. An indicator that makes no sense.
Let's just "sit on our hands" and watch this day unfold. If it "seems clear" we'll issue an intraday alert, but only if we see safe patterns.
Most importantly, the market held above 10,000, a hard psychological number. Let's hope it holds upside in today's trading.
No new trades yesterday were possible without paying above prior day close. But let's look closely again at our 95% potential profits on 7/6 and the following on the call yesterday
OEX JUL 17 2010 460.00 CALL
Last [Tick] 23.45[+]
This is how high the signal reached. We bought this option as low as $10.00 yesterday, and gave our top sells at 17.90. We're sure this morning no one believed us, but the triggers have been showing. Most of you bought this call Tuesday and were ready to make second buys. There was no need and your profits could have been as high as 74% with ease, and returns to 134% reported by many subscribers.
We have simply kicked ass and taken names the past two days. We open the day with no new position, and will not have one. We have had two days of exceptional profits, and it's time to rest, and to let the market decide what it just did.
Gold rose. An indicator that makes no sense.
Let's just "sit on our hands" and watch this day unfold. If it "seems clear" we'll issue an intraday alert, but only if we see safe patterns.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Gold is Beginning to Sell Off
Of course, everyone was happy, we all had hot dogs, made miniature bombs bursting in air, and allowed the stock market to burst to new highs of theoretical 9898 by 10.30 a.m.
Initial buys to our new recommendation to the call were not available. During that time, however, our put hit lows of 4.00, moving to highs of 7.80 during the trading day, for a signal we consider sold.
So, on a massively UP day, we first made money on PUTS, as much as 95%! And we took entry easily below best buy on the call, and still hold it as a trade.
Gold is beginning to sell off. This is a healthy and good sign for the short term.
It is not obvious that nations cannot be run on debt, as they have been for almost 40 years. Economists may argue the methodology of accounting, of debt, of how obligations are packaged, but in the end the "debt" has always been there, in the form of mortgages, mounting credit card debt, easy credit lines for corporations, forcing them to more debt, or to begin falsifying the books.
For ten years, in publication, Floyd has told us that all financial statements are false, or that at least the majority of the large corporations are. Enron was just the first to get "caught" but we can now see how many games were played, and these have been played since the early 1900's. Nothing has changed in the "core" or the basics, it is only the electronics, or the "way" the games are played that have changed.
None of this is new, and all of it has been done before.
Roubini Sees German, U.S Debt as Havens in Face of ‘Fragility’
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist credited with predicting the financial crisis, said that government bonds of countries such as Germany, Canada and the U.S. will represent a haven from increasingly volatile markets in coming months.
“It is going to be a period of economic and financial fragility,” Roubini said in an interview in Aix en Provence, France. “The short-term and long-term debt of countries not yet subject to sovereign debt concern will be havens,” he said.
The global economy will slow in the second half as deficit- reduction measures, notably in Europe, sap demand, Roubini said. U.S. growth will ease to about 1.5 percent by the end of 2010, about half its potential, while the euro area’s expansion may stall, he said. As a whole, the world should avoid a double-dip recession, he said.
“The next few weeks and months will be a time of volatility as the market surprises on the downside,” he said. “It’s a pretty ugly picture. The macro news from the U.S., Europe, Japan and even China is disappointing. Credit spreads will widen.”
Roubini spoke at a meeting of France’s Circle of Economists.
To Floyd, Roubini is one of the few economists who understands the situation we have created and that it is not so simple as "lower the deficit."
Initial buys to our new recommendation to the call were not available. During that time, however, our put hit lows of 4.00, moving to highs of 7.80 during the trading day, for a signal we consider sold.
So, on a massively UP day, we first made money on PUTS, as much as 95%! And we took entry easily below best buy on the call, and still hold it as a trade.
Gold is beginning to sell off. This is a healthy and good sign for the short term.
It is not obvious that nations cannot be run on debt, as they have been for almost 40 years. Economists may argue the methodology of accounting, of debt, of how obligations are packaged, but in the end the "debt" has always been there, in the form of mortgages, mounting credit card debt, easy credit lines for corporations, forcing them to more debt, or to begin falsifying the books.
For ten years, in publication, Floyd has told us that all financial statements are false, or that at least the majority of the large corporations are. Enron was just the first to get "caught" but we can now see how many games were played, and these have been played since the early 1900's. Nothing has changed in the "core" or the basics, it is only the electronics, or the "way" the games are played that have changed.
None of this is new, and all of it has been done before.
Roubini Sees German, U.S Debt as Havens in Face of ‘Fragility’
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist credited with predicting the financial crisis, said that government bonds of countries such as Germany, Canada and the U.S. will represent a haven from increasingly volatile markets in coming months.
“It is going to be a period of economic and financial fragility,” Roubini said in an interview in Aix en Provence, France. “The short-term and long-term debt of countries not yet subject to sovereign debt concern will be havens,” he said.
The global economy will slow in the second half as deficit- reduction measures, notably in Europe, sap demand, Roubini said. U.S. growth will ease to about 1.5 percent by the end of 2010, about half its potential, while the euro area’s expansion may stall, he said. As a whole, the world should avoid a double-dip recession, he said.
“The next few weeks and months will be a time of volatility as the market surprises on the downside,” he said. “It’s a pretty ugly picture. The macro news from the U.S., Europe, Japan and even China is disappointing. Credit spreads will widen.”
Roubini spoke at a meeting of France’s Circle of Economists.
To Floyd, Roubini is one of the few economists who understands the situation we have created and that it is not so simple as "lower the deficit."
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Welcome Back
Welcome back. The world has not ended. There is still love, nature, animals, clouds and many many people. Over the Holiday Weekend we only screwed up as we normally do, but did not create any new World Wars or environmental disasters.
The Dow Jones Industrial fell for seven straight days, sliding well under 10,000. It ended the week off 457 points, or 4.5%, to a close of 9686.
We are adjusting our Dow projections for the first time in 21 market days, with 76% of our Dow support/resistance lines actually hit during this highly volatile time.
It's also a week of limited economic data, as you can see below, so the markets will likely focus on weekly numbers, especially the all important (but really completely irrelevant) weekly jobless claim report.
Instructions detailed within our Dow Projections.
The Dow Jones Industrial fell for seven straight days, sliding well under 10,000. It ended the week off 457 points, or 4.5%, to a close of 9686.
We are adjusting our Dow projections for the first time in 21 market days, with 76% of our Dow support/resistance lines actually hit during this highly volatile time.
It's also a week of limited economic data, as you can see below, so the markets will likely focus on weekly numbers, especially the all important (but really completely irrelevant) weekly jobless claim report.
Instructions detailed within our Dow Projections.
Friday, July 2, 2010
Whipsaw and Volatility are Exhausting
Whipsaw and volatility are exhausting. The market opened with fluctuating futures leading to an immediate 124 point drop to 9650 by 11 a.m.
For traders that owned the July OEX 450 Put, it's a great story. The prior day close was 6.60, the put was available as low as 5.70 (below prior day) in early morning whipsaw, and hit highs of 9.00 by 11 a.m. This trade was possible, often within a dime or twenty cents, in easy trading. Typical profits were over 50% by 11 a.m! WOW. We hit it!
As the Dow hits 9650, off we go whipsaw and begin moving....and the day, at least the morning, was a roller coaster. Enough for old Floyd, settling for a 50% profit, I closed the computer and let it go. A good lesson: the money in our trading has been great this week. We've profited well this week, and we'll just see what tomorrow brings.
By 1 pm. yesterday the market had already started the reversal whipsaw. Sigh.
The OEX falters step by step with the Dow, showing that even the top 100 can't create any pattern.
- Hide quoted text -
We hold an OTM call and have made great money on our last put. Let's hold NO new inventory for the Holiday weekend, and make no other decisions.
Sell on the Call by day end, and we'll end the week profitable on all trades but the call that has made us so much money, and who knows today? Nothing would surprise me now.
___________
A day of data: unemployment will probably not surprise us at 9.8%, a drop in non-farm workers (census workers now gone), and the market will act worried about unemployment not changing, when it is unlikely to change, in our viewpoint, for some time.
We will see analysis today with factory orders announced at 10 a.m., and the ECRI Futures Inflation Gauge and Leading Index data also out in the A.M.
And of course we've just learned that housing, we are phucked, and it's worse. But really, with the stimulus ending, we have all known this, for weeks, and are making "it" news, and it became a trigger, for what we already knew.
__________________________
On the "government's recommendation that BP pay $20 billion in damages, from Investors.com:
"Where is the Constitution does it say that a President has the authority to extract vast sums of money from a private enterprise and distribute it as he sees fit? Nowhere. It says that private property is not to be confiscated by the government without 'due process of law.' If you believe that the end justifies the means, then you don't believe in constitutional government, and without constitutional government, freedom cannot endure."
This is a perfect example for traders to learn from, to understand how false facts and "mis-information" clouds judgment. Sorry to Investors.com, and whatever Tea Party guru wrote this, but here's the Floydian rebuttal:
1. Nowhere in the Constitution does it say to invade a country without provocation, or does it "draft" only certain types of people.
2. The Constitution does not mention lobbyists and bribers, much as work during the writing of the Constitution (by a few guys that when you study them are truly not the "greatest of men," but what we have "historically made them out to be."
3. I believe the ends do justify the means under extreme conditions, and believe most everyone does, when they think clearly and not with some ingrained "bullcrap spiritual stuff" that we choose to interpret as we see fit, such as the "jihad" vs. "eye for an eye" vs. "thou shalt not kill." I also believe BP are phuckers, and we had to steal the money from them, as they stole the environment and livelihoods of millions for GREED, and would never have paid this back. Private enterprise does not work too well in a democracy, much as you may have been led to think otherwise.
4. There are many governments that are non constitutional in which freedom endures.
5. Silly silly people. The Constitution is NOT the word of God, but words of men hundreds of years ago. A country in 2010 cannot be run by these rules, as there aren't even rules for many of the things we deal with. Where's North Korea, Afghanistan, or taxation of tanning salons and cigarettes, in the Constitution?
So to trade....what do you learn? Do not believe this fodder as it comes across the boards, the Palin to compare Obama to Hitler (Floyd hated George Bush II beyond comprehension for what he and gunman Cheney did, but even I would not compare their work to Hitler.)
Do not listen to those that call names, and create their interpretation of scholarly works.
Do not fall for false information.
___
Here's an article from Fortune, by Allen Sloan, that paints a full perspective, and may be one of the most important articles you will read this year:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/21/AR2010062104647.html
Monday is part of our Independence Day celebrations and the stock market is closed. Happy Fourth of July! We'll be back with a lengthy alert for July 6th
For traders that owned the July OEX 450 Put, it's a great story. The prior day close was 6.60, the put was available as low as 5.70 (below prior day) in early morning whipsaw, and hit highs of 9.00 by 11 a.m. This trade was possible, often within a dime or twenty cents, in easy trading. Typical profits were over 50% by 11 a.m! WOW. We hit it!
As the Dow hits 9650, off we go whipsaw and begin moving....and the day, at least the morning, was a roller coaster. Enough for old Floyd, settling for a 50% profit, I closed the computer and let it go. A good lesson: the money in our trading has been great this week. We've profited well this week, and we'll just see what tomorrow brings.
By 1 pm. yesterday the market had already started the reversal whipsaw. Sigh.
The OEX falters step by step with the Dow, showing that even the top 100 can't create any pattern.
- Hide quoted text -
We hold an OTM call and have made great money on our last put. Let's hold NO new inventory for the Holiday weekend, and make no other decisions.
Sell on the Call by day end, and we'll end the week profitable on all trades but the call that has made us so much money, and who knows today? Nothing would surprise me now.
___________
A day of data: unemployment will probably not surprise us at 9.8%, a drop in non-farm workers (census workers now gone), and the market will act worried about unemployment not changing, when it is unlikely to change, in our viewpoint, for some time.
We will see analysis today with factory orders announced at 10 a.m., and the ECRI Futures Inflation Gauge and Leading Index data also out in the A.M.
And of course we've just learned that housing, we are phucked, and it's worse. But really, with the stimulus ending, we have all known this, for weeks, and are making "it" news, and it became a trigger, for what we already knew.
__________________________
On the "government's recommendation that BP pay $20 billion in damages, from Investors.com:
"Where is the Constitution does it say that a President has the authority to extract vast sums of money from a private enterprise and distribute it as he sees fit? Nowhere. It says that private property is not to be confiscated by the government without 'due process of law.' If you believe that the end justifies the means, then you don't believe in constitutional government, and without constitutional government, freedom cannot endure."
This is a perfect example for traders to learn from, to understand how false facts and "mis-information" clouds judgment. Sorry to Investors.com, and whatever Tea Party guru wrote this, but here's the Floydian rebuttal:
1. Nowhere in the Constitution does it say to invade a country without provocation, or does it "draft" only certain types of people.
2. The Constitution does not mention lobbyists and bribers, much as work during the writing of the Constitution (by a few guys that when you study them are truly not the "greatest of men," but what we have "historically made them out to be."
3. I believe the ends do justify the means under extreme conditions, and believe most everyone does, when they think clearly and not with some ingrained "bullcrap spiritual stuff" that we choose to interpret as we see fit, such as the "jihad" vs. "eye for an eye" vs. "thou shalt not kill." I also believe BP are phuckers, and we had to steal the money from them, as they stole the environment and livelihoods of millions for GREED, and would never have paid this back. Private enterprise does not work too well in a democracy, much as you may have been led to think otherwise.
4. There are many governments that are non constitutional in which freedom endures.
5. Silly silly people. The Constitution is NOT the word of God, but words of men hundreds of years ago. A country in 2010 cannot be run by these rules, as there aren't even rules for many of the things we deal with. Where's North Korea, Afghanistan, or taxation of tanning salons and cigarettes, in the Constitution?
So to trade....what do you learn? Do not believe this fodder as it comes across the boards, the Palin to compare Obama to Hitler (Floyd hated George Bush II beyond comprehension for what he and gunman Cheney did, but even I would not compare their work to Hitler.)
Do not listen to those that call names, and create their interpretation of scholarly works.
Do not fall for false information.
___
Here's an article from Fortune, by Allen Sloan, that paints a full perspective, and may be one of the most important articles you will read this year:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/21/AR2010062104647.html
Monday is part of our Independence Day celebrations and the stock market is closed. Happy Fourth of July! We'll be back with a lengthy alert for July 6th
Thursday, July 1, 2010
High Tech High Speed Poker Game
Yesterday we saw a market "try to flat line," showing very flat and undefined futures, and hitting lows of 9790 before 11 a.m., again very very close to the 9776 support and resistance line that held the market during the first "great recession". We've hit this number several times during this sell off, and have always closed above it. The rest of the day we saw classic flatlining, through 1.30 p.m., then 2.30 p.m.
Puts were actually profitable yesterday to up to $1.00 per contract, and futures did not even reflect a strong downside. That is, until the 3 pm. hour when the market moved right to the 9774 resistance mark and where the puts we bought were profitable from a low of 4.35 to 6.90, for profits of up to 58%!!!
Right now a high-tech, high-speed poker game is playing out in the stock market, and billions of dollars are at stake. As the WSJ states "the adversaries are high frequency traders and big investors such as mutual funds. HIgh speed firms are using computers to detect large "buy" and "sell" orders to adjust their trades, and traditional investors are scrambling to trade "undetected."
So what is happening? It's become an escalating arms race,with technology receiving the power to trade faster and more efficiently. We saw it in the algorithms and rising use of computers, and a "traders" mistake that led the May 6th "flash crash."
_______________________________
> A timely excerpt from our Monday Blue Chip Option commentary:
> Turmoil has marked events more this year than ever before.
>
> Toyota was a crisis. Worldwide panic. News everywhere.
>
> Toyota still has a good quarter, learns their lesson on quality control, and soon thereafter every major car company except Honda is hit with massive recalls also, but the “hit” is not there.
>
> And from Toyota there was soon thereafter “the flash crash,” a 20 minute trading period in which companies that are well known actually hit zero, and more 25% trailing stop losses were executed by funds, individuals, and all of finance on the massive drop.
>
> Okay, so some say it was a blip, and I’ve also read an intriguing study on how this 1000 point drop that shattered Wall Street could have occurred on a full Fibonnaci retracement….and on and on.
>
> I don’t really care.
>
> What I care about is that it does not happen again, or that if this is the “new way,” let’s get ready, and buy gold buillion and run.
>
> What concerns me is that no one talks about it and you can find little internet feed explaining the true precautions being set up, or if they are; it is as if the exchanges see it just as a “blip,” “easily corrected with a simple remedy: the adoption of cross-market trading halts for individual stocks so that that buyers can catch up with the sellers and vice versa.” (Jim McTague, Barrons).
>
> It goes back to the story of the circuit breakers, what we had been told in the past was “failsafe” for moves like this. Proctor and Gamble gossip cost us billions? Something is wrong.
>
> Even VIX feels different. Buying fear is a good trade, just as selling confidence is usually a good sale. Sear, in Striking Point, says, “People are buying puts because fear is high , Vix at a lofty 35…..and remember the market’s mainstay strategy remains selling stocks to increase investment returns, or selling puts to lower the cost of buying stocks. 14 million contracts trade on an average day."
>
> Much of that option volume is institutional: buying hedges,adjusting hedges, puts against positions taken. Options are an art, science, and card game.
>
>
>
> The rules are changing in the card game.
Puts were actually profitable yesterday to up to $1.00 per contract, and futures did not even reflect a strong downside. That is, until the 3 pm. hour when the market moved right to the 9774 resistance mark and where the puts we bought were profitable from a low of 4.35 to 6.90, for profits of up to 58%!!!
Right now a high-tech, high-speed poker game is playing out in the stock market, and billions of dollars are at stake. As the WSJ states "the adversaries are high frequency traders and big investors such as mutual funds. HIgh speed firms are using computers to detect large "buy" and "sell" orders to adjust their trades, and traditional investors are scrambling to trade "undetected."
So what is happening? It's become an escalating arms race,with technology receiving the power to trade faster and more efficiently. We saw it in the algorithms and rising use of computers, and a "traders" mistake that led the May 6th "flash crash."
_______________________________
> A timely excerpt from our Monday Blue Chip Option commentary:
> Turmoil has marked events more this year than ever before.
>
> Toyota was a crisis. Worldwide panic. News everywhere.
>
> Toyota still has a good quarter, learns their lesson on quality control, and soon thereafter every major car company except Honda is hit with massive recalls also, but the “hit” is not there.
>
> And from Toyota there was soon thereafter “the flash crash,” a 20 minute trading period in which companies that are well known actually hit zero, and more 25% trailing stop losses were executed by funds, individuals, and all of finance on the massive drop.
>
> Okay, so some say it was a blip, and I’ve also read an intriguing study on how this 1000 point drop that shattered Wall Street could have occurred on a full Fibonnaci retracement….and on and on.
>
> I don’t really care.
>
> What I care about is that it does not happen again, or that if this is the “new way,” let’s get ready, and buy gold buillion and run.
>
> What concerns me is that no one talks about it and you can find little internet feed explaining the true precautions being set up, or if they are; it is as if the exchanges see it just as a “blip,” “easily corrected with a simple remedy: the adoption of cross-market trading halts for individual stocks so that that buyers can catch up with the sellers and vice versa.” (Jim McTague, Barrons).
>
> It goes back to the story of the circuit breakers, what we had been told in the past was “failsafe” for moves like this. Proctor and Gamble gossip cost us billions? Something is wrong.
>
> Even VIX feels different. Buying fear is a good trade, just as selling confidence is usually a good sale. Sear, in Striking Point, says, “People are buying puts because fear is high , Vix at a lofty 35…..and remember the market’s mainstay strategy remains selling stocks to increase investment returns, or selling puts to lower the cost of buying stocks. 14 million contracts trade on an average day."
>
> Much of that option volume is institutional: buying hedges,adjusting hedges, puts against positions taken. Options are an art, science, and card game.
>
>
>
> The rules are changing in the card game.
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