The last trading day of March the Dow was down 10 of the last 14 years. Many believe market manipulators have had a good bull run to show the upside. We certainly saw this in sell off consolidation yesterday with the market dropping as low as 7397 by 3.15 p.m. EST, right to our support line.
President Obama fired the President of GM. Good riddance. And he held accountable the other top CEO's as the U.S. car companies to actually show us real action plans, criticizing that their first work due March 31st was inadequate. It is exactly this type of equality response....holding them accountable for the debt to our nation they have created.
The market sell off we believe healthy. If the market stabilizes we are seeing nothing more than a good consolidation, profit taking on a stupdendous 21% rise in just ten market days. If it continues, taking any catalyst news as bad news, we've seen the bear market rally, often strong as we've seen, fizzle.
My bet is that the Obama over communication, the first President to talk to us everyday, may well be actually teaching our populace what he is attempting. Our news, our talking heads, and our conservative bloggers lead us with "too much too fast, socialism, or my favorite "fire Geitner" (can you imagine what the world would think if we fired our U.S. Treasury Secretary in less than 90 days on the job?)
The constant communication may help build the necessary citizen momentum to get optimistic, and to begin re-thinking how to live and work. A complete cultural change may be taking place in our nation.
Risk traders that continued to hold our April320P or were day trading it had fun watching it move up so quickly, but we missed put entry yesterday for any traders following our rules, as the exhaustive gap down was immediate.
First buys could have been made to the call, which we recommended as a higher risk trade. Most traders watching futures, by the way, would not buy this issue, but for those that did , we may now be bottoming from consolidation, and calls could begin gaining strength.
Back to Floyd's Soapbox:
Many comments on swearing, and on tv's on the streets from yesterday's blog.
I'll start with the TV's on the street. Oh how good it sounds. Stop speeders, stop criminals. But, just as with TARP, or with TSA, or with Defense, who is in charge, and do you really trust them?
Think twice. Who is in charge here? What are they looking for? Are our rights being violated? Sure they are, but the majority of Americans will right now say “I’m not doing anything wrong, so I don’t care.”
And , it is this type of mentality that created Nazi Germany, and true totalitarianism.
I know it’s not intentional, and that the tv cameras aren’t here to “watch us”, but I also know that if there had been 8 more years of Bushian thinking, there may well might have been. Cheney has already told us “we are not as safe under Obama,” and I’m sure many gun toters already believe it, that we are “minimizing defense."
How do we stop such false facts? How do we learn to question when the camera is put up to not say "what a good idea." but to have a sense of disrespect as to what of our rights are being taken away.
Please continue to reinforce my soapbox, and allow me on it. You need my screams to shock your calm.
So back to swearing. Here's a few more blogs from subscribers, and we will have a few more tomorrow, as the lesson plan materializes.
Here's a hint: when we see facts, or what we see as what is important or logical, or the most appropriate thing to do, are we simply talking, or learning to analyze through a microscope?
1. "I once was saddened to see people swear, as my Father had taught me swearing was a sin. Then I found that he was having sex with my younger sister, and Mom would do nothing about it.For years I put up with this, while he thumped his Bible. Now, 30 years away from him, and trading successfully, I have learned to judge no book by its cover, and to be open to all points of view.Your sense of logic around how to see facts has helped me gain success in the market. I guess a few swear words might even make a point." -MDL, Columbus Oh"
2. "I get angry when people swear and I see kids swearing, and smoking, and think about the degradation of our society, but then I think how much I am part of this degradation, as I have a 5 bedroom home that only my wife and I live in, and I make a living selling life insurance, which sadly I know is not a good deal for most people that buy it, and trading options to be able to retire.
So when I get upset on the swearing, I think what you would say to me if you knew me well, and if you could see how I have built my wealth. Perhaps your anger with the Dr. really exposed your anger that questions like this are even part of our society, and why we still battle to have Confederate Flags on our State Government Steps, when our President is black.
Your point, is as always, provocative." -KJB, Virginia
3. " point is simple to me. We never stand up and truly make points about what we know is wrong, we just talk about it. All of us just "say we are angry" or "make our point". When you said " I will not stand for this" you did so in an angry tone, perhaps offensive, but darn it, you got him to talk to you. No one ever answers my complaints" -Jill M, Idaho
So again, I"ll have more of your comments tomorrow. Think about this:
Facts and logic in discussion about swearing is a sad use of absolutism. As an example, it is a fact that 78% of all child massacre students have read The Catcher in the Rye by J.D. Salinger.
Thusly, it would be logical that we stop allowing children to read this classic piece of fiction, as we could stop mass murderers.
It is faulty logic that calm and reason prevail well when making a point. Making a point is emotional, and has little to do with fact or reason, it is one's interpretation.
Thusly when one is angry and swears out his point the person that reads it (the Dr. in my case) may have taken offense, but so be it, as I took offense to the question. It prompted his response.
Would his response have been different if I were civil in my remarks, or would my remarks have been noticed?
All I know is that the report was changed, he had good discourse with me about it, and made a point of changing it in his office. I was offensive, but effective. Would I have been as effective if I had not been offensive?
The issue I am teaching is that with the black and white you all see, your FACTS about what is real (evolution is real, to creationism is right) interpret how you view others, and provide you the opportunity to judge.
It's true for all of us. When we see something as "obviously a fact" it should be sadly clear that many of the "obvious facts" we've read in recent years have been far from it. A great example is Bank of America buying Countrywide out of bankruptcy (from false facts) and having Goldman state "With BOA making this move and their liquid positions this is a super financial move long term for this AAA rated bank".
This was a fact at the time. It was logical. We all believed it.
Actions are not factually based, but emotionally. Decisions are also emotionally based; in fact logical people buy emotionally, and emotional people buy more logically.
By the beginning of this blog I am trying to show WHY we as citizens are not forming a unified stance, as our perceptions of reality are so only in tune with what we believe, and what we allow.
And many of us see our ways as the only way.
And this leads below to a bit of Floydian Therapy, how to see the world as it is, not as you are, or want it to be.
Floydian Therapy:
*You attract people or situations that help make your beliefs true.
*You hallucinate that you are right.
*You act in the way to make you right
*When you keep letting things happen that you don’t like: WATCH yourself doing it. It is much harder, if not impossible, to do things CONSCIOUSLY.
*There is another way of looking at the world.
*There is no purpose. You may choose to create one, but we created the word purpose
*We create the purpose. And , every purpose thusly has a consequence.
*For any outcome you want there is a certain way of thinking or acting that will get it for you.
*You create your own reality. You do things to yourself. You actually already know what to do.
*When you peel the onion away, as we all talk about, nothing is left. Exactly.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
There is no Black and White
The market hit 7962 repeatedly on Friday, right at our Dow projection resistance line. Intraday moves took the market to 7695, just at our strongest support line. A few of us cynics wonder if the 21% stock market increase in the past 10 days might have anything to do with institutional traders manipulating the market to "buy upside," only to lock profits near the end of March to show a stronger balance sheet.
But then again, I'm a good guy and not cynical about market manipulation. As I teach, almost all FACTS are false, simply interpreted data around the opinion and morals of the reader. I teach "there is no black and white" regularly, as it is key to trading, and know that this principle, as it fights "the absolute" is hard to understand. 1+1=2 is a fact, ONLY if we agree on the definition of 1.
After using the April320P for day trade profits all of last week, we used stop loss on our remaining position on Friday, saying goodbye to a position that was an effective hedge for us as we profited on calls 7 days straight.
The Dow is up 21% in 13 days in the quickest rally since 1938. Perhaps it’s a Cinderella market that will turn into an illusion when the clock strikes midnight, and equally perhaps it may be a return to a serious bull run.
We have many new subscribers, and our long term loyal students and subscribers, and it's time for a week of the Floydian Soap Box. For those of you squeamish, faint at heart, or offended by swearing, radical thoughts, or "disrespect," first examine your limited minds, and secondly, ignore the following. These are beginning lessons from Floydian Therapy in how to trade the market. They are based on what our judgments and perceptions are, and why so many of us think we are "right" and that there is a black and white.
Friday I used the word FUCK in my diatribe about a Dr. that inquired of "what religion I was." By the end of the day I had received 47 responses from subscribers asking questions and complimenting my commentary, and 4 expressing concern or displeasure.
Following are three commentaries from subscribers. Please read carefully, as we will be discussing this around trading in the upcoming days, and feel free to offer your opinions.
First from friend and Trader JPW, from Missouri:
"I’ll be curious to see your commentary on swear words.
Though I personally believe intelligent creative individuals can find better ways of making an emphasis to a point with means other than swear words, some feel no need to exercise their creative minds in that fashion, as swearing is a much easier, though less effective approach than real facts. In the context you used a swear word, and the particular word used and considering the meaning of the swear word I find a hard time seeing how “f...g” relates to his request to know one’s religious affiliation. Even though one might find it hard to understand why he would ask that question, the reason for asking it would most likely be to know if certain medical approaches would be offensive, or to be aware of ones religious preferences upon death. There are other means of ascertaining that information, and less intrusive ways to do so.
For most people using swear words is a lack of sufficient emotional control, for some its second nature to swear. Typically, I believe highly intelligent individuals avoid using them. Maybe you used it for emphasis. Yet, I wonder if by using the swear word, you actually minimized your commentary to the Doctor? By using the F word in this case if I was the Doctor, I would discredit the entire comments you made as an emotional response, whereas a more creative approach (and logic based) to really “proving” your point of view would highlight the issue and not cloud it with a worthless swear word. Facts speak louder than emotions. Strong logical arguments coupled with an emotional appeal will have greater results, than using swear words that have no logical basis, but are most often reactionary rather than thought or logic based. Some use swear words to gain attention. If this was your real purpose, than it may have accomplished that, but it reduced any real argument to your point of view and had the added downside of potentially having your argument dismissed for lack of logic as it focused your comments on the emotion. Again, creative minds should be able to find stronger appeals than using the lower class swear words I believe.
Putting it in your commentary probably was to generate emotional fervor with your subscribers, and to encourage heightened emotions, all very similar to today’s media. Then again I guess this is an important part to keeping your subscriber base subscribing.
I would think better topics than the use of swear words would be more helpful to traders? Or was it to just generate interest in your Blog, and remove the focus from the recent loss on the Put trade?
Look forward to seeing your commentary.
Would hope your looking for intelligent discussion and you not find my blog offensive?"
And from Trader FTT, from Chicago:
"I for one am tired of hearing all I cannot do, and all I must tell. I am offended and incensed that there are now cameras on our street corners to watch us speeding, and put up in "high crime areas".
The average stupid American, as you so well call them, sees this "well I have nothing to hide and it will cut crime". The intelligent citizen sees this as the future of fascism, as the film maker is in control.
I am offended when I am asked my religion, and I understand the "shock" affect you used, just as you are so eloquent in your disrespect for the TSA and what they have done for us.
We spend far too much time in this country judging others, and making up suppositions, and I can only say "hotdamn, I love when you speak your mind. I'm sick of judgmental people. And personally, if I want to swear, I should be able to. They are just words. Good for you, Floyd"
And from Trader LFC, Italy:
"You Americans don't talk about sex, often act as sheep, and miss the joys of life. It is not right to ask one's religion nor their sexual preference, and we spend far too much in our world judging.
I wonder if The Catcher in the Rye, the famous novel by J.D. Salinger, is censored in many schools, especially religious ones in the U.S. There is a logic: Most of the "shooters" in your high school massacres had read this classic, therefore the book should be censored. It works right with your "what religion are you". I see the parallel to stocks already".
You wasted millions as a nation judging your former President on a sex act, but reelected a President practicing mass murder. I'd be surprised if the majority of your puritanical readers, as I see the U.S., will have appreciated your right to expression, and will have judged you. It will be an interesting study".
Thanks to all for writing here, and expressing your opinions. All of your points of view are welcome, and are part of the dialogue I hope to create about "how we think." Feedback more....as this is a week of teaching "how we think" I'll leave the comments above for your review, and blogging participation and give you one more story:
I used to travel to Europe and Asia a great deal, and just before getting a ticket a very official agent of the airline would interrogate each traveler, examining your papers, the passport, and asking a series of questions. Many Americans felt that this was “extraordinary in its’ diligence” and that this is what “the US should have been doing all along.”. As always, we only think out what we think is logic. Logic always has bias. This is key lesson.
So, from a conversation Floyd had 3 years ago in Europe, my little story for your review:
"Where are you going, and what is your purpose of business?"(The screener, saying to me, the businessman dressed in a high quality suit, flying business class, with a huge passport showing years of world travels.)
So here’s Floyd in line in Zurich. They review my papers, and I am in order. (It's a proud moment:))
"What was my purpose of business in Zurich?"-the screener
"I studied the mutilation of children, and how religions create mass murders in the name of God. And I am traveling to follow the will of God"-Floyd to the screener, who does not bat an eye.
"Where did you stay?"-the screener asks
"At the Marriot, but I slept around a lot with locals and prostitutes."- Floyd, just because why is it even RELEVANT where I stayed? Again, the screener does not bat an eye.
In turn, on my flight from Rome to Zurich they asked again:
"What is your purpose of travel to Zurich?"-this is my favorite question from screeners. You can say whatever you want!
"I am here to learn how to move assets to Switzerland from other tax havens. I can't keep it in the U.S."-I seriously said this, with no response. This Swiss guy even smiled.
I know, it’s funny. It’s also true. At both airports I was greeted warmly with this responses, had no questions put of me, and whisked right through.
I did answer honestly that I had no sharp objects with me, although I carried my trusty box cutter, camouflaged as a letter opener, and legal to the TSA.
What point am I making in relation to the stock market?
What point am I making in general? Can you analyze what point I am making about "swearing", about The Catcher in the Rye, about cameras on our streets, or "what type of people need to swear"?
Stay tuned for more this week, as we analyze the "emotions that create the market".
These are true stories, from your leader of disrespect.
But then again, I'm a good guy and not cynical about market manipulation. As I teach, almost all FACTS are false, simply interpreted data around the opinion and morals of the reader. I teach "there is no black and white" regularly, as it is key to trading, and know that this principle, as it fights "the absolute" is hard to understand. 1+1=2 is a fact, ONLY if we agree on the definition of 1.
After using the April320P for day trade profits all of last week, we used stop loss on our remaining position on Friday, saying goodbye to a position that was an effective hedge for us as we profited on calls 7 days straight.
The Dow is up 21% in 13 days in the quickest rally since 1938. Perhaps it’s a Cinderella market that will turn into an illusion when the clock strikes midnight, and equally perhaps it may be a return to a serious bull run.
We have many new subscribers, and our long term loyal students and subscribers, and it's time for a week of the Floydian Soap Box. For those of you squeamish, faint at heart, or offended by swearing, radical thoughts, or "disrespect," first examine your limited minds, and secondly, ignore the following. These are beginning lessons from Floydian Therapy in how to trade the market. They are based on what our judgments and perceptions are, and why so many of us think we are "right" and that there is a black and white.
Friday I used the word FUCK in my diatribe about a Dr. that inquired of "what religion I was." By the end of the day I had received 47 responses from subscribers asking questions and complimenting my commentary, and 4 expressing concern or displeasure.
Following are three commentaries from subscribers. Please read carefully, as we will be discussing this around trading in the upcoming days, and feel free to offer your opinions.
First from friend and Trader JPW, from Missouri:
"I’ll be curious to see your commentary on swear words.
Though I personally believe intelligent creative individuals can find better ways of making an emphasis to a point with means other than swear words, some feel no need to exercise their creative minds in that fashion, as swearing is a much easier, though less effective approach than real facts. In the context you used a swear word, and the particular word used and considering the meaning of the swear word I find a hard time seeing how “f...g” relates to his request to know one’s religious affiliation. Even though one might find it hard to understand why he would ask that question, the reason for asking it would most likely be to know if certain medical approaches would be offensive, or to be aware of ones religious preferences upon death. There are other means of ascertaining that information, and less intrusive ways to do so.
For most people using swear words is a lack of sufficient emotional control, for some its second nature to swear. Typically, I believe highly intelligent individuals avoid using them. Maybe you used it for emphasis. Yet, I wonder if by using the swear word, you actually minimized your commentary to the Doctor? By using the F word in this case if I was the Doctor, I would discredit the entire comments you made as an emotional response, whereas a more creative approach (and logic based) to really “proving” your point of view would highlight the issue and not cloud it with a worthless swear word. Facts speak louder than emotions. Strong logical arguments coupled with an emotional appeal will have greater results, than using swear words that have no logical basis, but are most often reactionary rather than thought or logic based. Some use swear words to gain attention. If this was your real purpose, than it may have accomplished that, but it reduced any real argument to your point of view and had the added downside of potentially having your argument dismissed for lack of logic as it focused your comments on the emotion. Again, creative minds should be able to find stronger appeals than using the lower class swear words I believe.
Putting it in your commentary probably was to generate emotional fervor with your subscribers, and to encourage heightened emotions, all very similar to today’s media. Then again I guess this is an important part to keeping your subscriber base subscribing.
I would think better topics than the use of swear words would be more helpful to traders? Or was it to just generate interest in your Blog, and remove the focus from the recent loss on the Put trade?
Look forward to seeing your commentary.
Would hope your looking for intelligent discussion and you not find my blog offensive?"
And from Trader FTT, from Chicago:
"I for one am tired of hearing all I cannot do, and all I must tell. I am offended and incensed that there are now cameras on our street corners to watch us speeding, and put up in "high crime areas".
The average stupid American, as you so well call them, sees this "well I have nothing to hide and it will cut crime". The intelligent citizen sees this as the future of fascism, as the film maker is in control.
I am offended when I am asked my religion, and I understand the "shock" affect you used, just as you are so eloquent in your disrespect for the TSA and what they have done for us.
We spend far too much time in this country judging others, and making up suppositions, and I can only say "hotdamn, I love when you speak your mind. I'm sick of judgmental people. And personally, if I want to swear, I should be able to. They are just words. Good for you, Floyd"
And from Trader LFC, Italy:
"You Americans don't talk about sex, often act as sheep, and miss the joys of life. It is not right to ask one's religion nor their sexual preference, and we spend far too much in our world judging.
I wonder if The Catcher in the Rye, the famous novel by J.D. Salinger, is censored in many schools, especially religious ones in the U.S. There is a logic: Most of the "shooters" in your high school massacres had read this classic, therefore the book should be censored. It works right with your "what religion are you". I see the parallel to stocks already".
You wasted millions as a nation judging your former President on a sex act, but reelected a President practicing mass murder. I'd be surprised if the majority of your puritanical readers, as I see the U.S., will have appreciated your right to expression, and will have judged you. It will be an interesting study".
Thanks to all for writing here, and expressing your opinions. All of your points of view are welcome, and are part of the dialogue I hope to create about "how we think." Feedback more....as this is a week of teaching "how we think" I'll leave the comments above for your review, and blogging participation and give you one more story:
I used to travel to Europe and Asia a great deal, and just before getting a ticket a very official agent of the airline would interrogate each traveler, examining your papers, the passport, and asking a series of questions. Many Americans felt that this was “extraordinary in its’ diligence” and that this is what “the US should have been doing all along.”. As always, we only think out what we think is logic. Logic always has bias. This is key lesson.
So, from a conversation Floyd had 3 years ago in Europe, my little story for your review:
"Where are you going, and what is your purpose of business?"(The screener, saying to me, the businessman dressed in a high quality suit, flying business class, with a huge passport showing years of world travels.)
So here’s Floyd in line in Zurich. They review my papers, and I am in order. (It's a proud moment:))
"What was my purpose of business in Zurich?"-the screener
"I studied the mutilation of children, and how religions create mass murders in the name of God. And I am traveling to follow the will of God"-Floyd to the screener, who does not bat an eye.
"Where did you stay?"-the screener asks
"At the Marriot, but I slept around a lot with locals and prostitutes."- Floyd, just because why is it even RELEVANT where I stayed? Again, the screener does not bat an eye.
In turn, on my flight from Rome to Zurich they asked again:
"What is your purpose of travel to Zurich?"-this is my favorite question from screeners. You can say whatever you want!
"I am here to learn how to move assets to Switzerland from other tax havens. I can't keep it in the U.S."-I seriously said this, with no response. This Swiss guy even smiled.
I know, it’s funny. It’s also true. At both airports I was greeted warmly with this responses, had no questions put of me, and whisked right through.
I did answer honestly that I had no sharp objects with me, although I carried my trusty box cutter, camouflaged as a letter opener, and legal to the TSA.
What point am I making in relation to the stock market?
What point am I making in general? Can you analyze what point I am making about "swearing", about The Catcher in the Rye, about cameras on our streets, or "what type of people need to swear"?
Stay tuned for more this week, as we analyze the "emotions that create the market".
These are true stories, from your leader of disrespect.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
A Soap Box of Learning... Coming Soon!
Our April 420C was available perfectly to our rules of trading, and sold for average .70 profits per contract same day. The hedge April320P that we have day traded so well we suggest stop loss on for any remaining holders. We've hit great profit goals bi-directionally this week in an ongoing hard market to trade.
Whether this is a bear market rally, or a real rally, is yet to be determined. In our lengthy Dow projections below please study how the moves we've suggested have occurred. What typically are 21 day cycles are now occurring in 5 to 7 days. We believe the next move is consolidation, with up to a 586 point drop from the highest high, in a series of steps around support lines.
Obama's emotional rallies are affecting the America spirit, however, and the focus is gaining. Much of fear and greed, the basis of the market, is on the mood of the people.
Next week I will be leading a new series of articles that you will not think to relate to the stock market at first. I whet your appetite with this:
Monday my lovely wife of 38 years and I went to visit a new GP Dr., as we are changing health insurance carriers. The application for our new Dr was many pages, and on page 1 was listed:
What Religion are You?
My wife is a good woman, so she promptly answered the "truth," what faith she is.
I am a cynic, and you need me in the world. I wrote "see attached" and then wrote a note that I attached for the Dr. (He never said a word)
"Please share with me how my religion has one iota of difference in how you will treat me medically, unless I have religious convictions that so stipulate and that I would make aware to you.
By your asking me my religion you stereotype me, invade my privacy, and gain information that can be used against me, as they are public records. Please revise this form to be appropriate.
My religion is none of your fucking business."
My question to you: how does this relate to the stock market?
Hint: It is very important to how one thinks to trade.
Excuse the use of a swear word, but swear words will be discussed at length next week. I am preparing a soap box of learning.
Have a great weekend.
Floydian Therapy:
Americans are overmedicated; we don’t know the long-term effects of this stuff on the human brain; it’s a crime that even American children are on antidepressants these days; we are treating the symptoms and not the cause of a national health emergency. To be sure, some people need medication to help them, and mental health has improved for some with the many marvelous drugs available.
At the same time one can go to any physician these days and say I am depressed, and soon be on Prozac.
We are yet again creating a solution out of not knowing what the problem is, and a “medical bubble”.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Whether this is a bear market rally, or a real rally, is yet to be determined. In our lengthy Dow projections below please study how the moves we've suggested have occurred. What typically are 21 day cycles are now occurring in 5 to 7 days. We believe the next move is consolidation, with up to a 586 point drop from the highest high, in a series of steps around support lines.
Obama's emotional rallies are affecting the America spirit, however, and the focus is gaining. Much of fear and greed, the basis of the market, is on the mood of the people.
Next week I will be leading a new series of articles that you will not think to relate to the stock market at first. I whet your appetite with this:
Monday my lovely wife of 38 years and I went to visit a new GP Dr., as we are changing health insurance carriers. The application for our new Dr was many pages, and on page 1 was listed:
What Religion are You?
My wife is a good woman, so she promptly answered the "truth," what faith she is.
I am a cynic, and you need me in the world. I wrote "see attached" and then wrote a note that I attached for the Dr. (He never said a word)
"Please share with me how my religion has one iota of difference in how you will treat me medically, unless I have religious convictions that so stipulate and that I would make aware to you.
By your asking me my religion you stereotype me, invade my privacy, and gain information that can be used against me, as they are public records. Please revise this form to be appropriate.
My religion is none of your fucking business."
My question to you: how does this relate to the stock market?
Hint: It is very important to how one thinks to trade.
Excuse the use of a swear word, but swear words will be discussed at length next week. I am preparing a soap box of learning.
Have a great weekend.
Floydian Therapy:
Americans are overmedicated; we don’t know the long-term effects of this stuff on the human brain; it’s a crime that even American children are on antidepressants these days; we are treating the symptoms and not the cause of a national health emergency. To be sure, some people need medication to help them, and mental health has improved for some with the many marvelous drugs available.
At the same time one can go to any physician these days and say I am depressed, and soon be on Prozac.
We are yet again creating a solution out of not knowing what the problem is, and a “medical bubble”.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Shorting the Market and Shorting Sectors
Market moves went to our Dow tops like clockwork, and reversed. There may be another test of 7950 to 8015, but the topping we saw may now allow a strong consolidation.
If this consolidation has good volume and moves near 7250 we believe the opportunity for a stronger upside has high possibility. Bear market rally's, which this may be, can have surprising strength.
However, if the continued "selling of America" takes place by our President, we could truly begin to slow the FEAR. I applaud his constant newbites, in front of people, and "selling"...this is exactly what we need.
For years we have been led by false facts, and we now know it. Here's another one:
The nation is irate over the bonuses for the AIG employees. Dumb. There is not a shred of justice in the hysteria that followed. As AIG chief Ed Liddy explained on the hill last week, the people receiving retention bonuses were NOT the same people who launched AIG's unhedged housing bets that brought the company down. Those people were gone. Their pay was already clawed back.
But America and our Congress got false facts, and went for blood. Those who remained had been asked a year ago to stay and work themselves out of a job. In accepting the terms offered to them, they committed no offense (say, failing to pay taxes). Their only crime was possessing market knowledge, and we as citizens needed this type of individual to unravel the mess.
So now, they've worked for nothing, we've proven "we are strong", and we never got to the root of the issue, yet. Yet again, a "false fact" fueled fervor. We spent 1 trillion a few years ago on the Iraqi "false fact".
Remember, think with a basis of disrespect and cynicism.
We believe Treasuries are now ready to be our next bubble. People are actually buying these things, when the value of the USD is in the crapper. The USA name can sell anything. In our Blue Chip service (www.bluechipoptions.com) we have ways we are shorting the U.S. Treasury.
By the way, much talk in the world on "shorting the market, or a sector". I'll be teaching this next few months on what we do, as when we buy puts on the OEX we are shorting the market, and shorting sectors.
Thanks for being with us through such a great win ratio recently!!!!
If this consolidation has good volume and moves near 7250 we believe the opportunity for a stronger upside has high possibility. Bear market rally's, which this may be, can have surprising strength.
However, if the continued "selling of America" takes place by our President, we could truly begin to slow the FEAR. I applaud his constant newbites, in front of people, and "selling"...this is exactly what we need.
For years we have been led by false facts, and we now know it. Here's another one:
The nation is irate over the bonuses for the AIG employees. Dumb. There is not a shred of justice in the hysteria that followed. As AIG chief Ed Liddy explained on the hill last week, the people receiving retention bonuses were NOT the same people who launched AIG's unhedged housing bets that brought the company down. Those people were gone. Their pay was already clawed back.
But America and our Congress got false facts, and went for blood. Those who remained had been asked a year ago to stay and work themselves out of a job. In accepting the terms offered to them, they committed no offense (say, failing to pay taxes). Their only crime was possessing market knowledge, and we as citizens needed this type of individual to unravel the mess.
So now, they've worked for nothing, we've proven "we are strong", and we never got to the root of the issue, yet. Yet again, a "false fact" fueled fervor. We spent 1 trillion a few years ago on the Iraqi "false fact".
Remember, think with a basis of disrespect and cynicism.
We believe Treasuries are now ready to be our next bubble. People are actually buying these things, when the value of the USD is in the crapper. The USA name can sell anything. In our Blue Chip service (www.bluechipoptions.com) we have ways we are shorting the U.S. Treasury.
By the way, much talk in the world on "shorting the market, or a sector". I'll be teaching this next few months on what we do, as when we buy puts on the OEX we are shorting the market, and shorting sectors.
Thanks for being with us through such a great win ratio recently!!!!
The Market is Waiting
The end of the day sell off was appropriate, at 115 points, not too excessive, and thusly could now show follow through. At the same time, we've reached the very top of our Dow projections without extreme overbought conditions. Something will give when the euphoria fog of greed lifts.
" If the top 10 earners at Merrill had been given 104.5 million instead of 209 million last year, 104.5 jobs at $1million a year could have been saved or 209 jobs at $500,000 a year, or 1045 jobs at $100,000 a year. With these kind of numbers, conservatives should be worried less about creeping socialism and more about imminent revolution."
Laura Norman wrote the above to The Wall Street Journal yesterday, and it identifies the situation well.
Geitner yesterday shared that 1 of 3 jobs in the United States are "employed by AIG" in some way.
Obama hits the streets daily in the media blitz of our lives, to help the American people vaguely understand what a clusterf____we have, and that more unravels each day. I know clusterf___, also known as "goat rodeos" and I know that we have not even begun to uncover the frauds. False facts have prevailed for years.
Our Dow Projections are your trading tool. It's what I do best. Yesterday allowed profits for both put and call traders, if day trading, and for tight profits. It's quite easy to miss a large move right now, as we did Monday, as one never knows what now moves the market, other than a trigger that sets up moves. Market manipulation takes place without our knowing it.
We will continue to trade OTM put and call, open signal and new buy, settling for tight profits until we see the establishment of a further trend up. The count is now skewed, meaning the market is "waiting".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
If we were just sitting together, drinking coffee, watching a sunrise over the Florida ocean, I might ask or impart:
*How do know when it’s time to be depressed?
*You are supposed to be right where you are
*Awareness, in of itself, is transformative.
*Do you ever stretch like a dog, and think like a child?
*Life is a meaningless play going nowhere for no reason.
*Be in the world, but not of it
*What if it was here, what if it was now, what if it was already done?
*If you can observe, you won’t have the resistance
*We have a choice in how we respond, or even if we do
*Resistance is simply focusing on what you don’t want
*Focusing is making internal representations of what you want, or don’t want. It’s your choice.
*When you focus on what you don’t want you feel pain
*We can have control over what we focus on; there really is a law of attraction
*Put passion in the goal you are visualizing
*Whatever is happening to you, you created
*We chronically focus on what we don’t want, what we don’t like, and what is wrong
*Actions must be good to really work
*You can’t change people from their developmental level. I teach from a style of spiral dynamics, a way of understanding people
*Depression happens when you don’t get what you want, or feel controlled.
*Speak to people where they are; not where you are
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
" If the top 10 earners at Merrill had been given 104.5 million instead of 209 million last year, 104.5 jobs at $1million a year could have been saved or 209 jobs at $500,000 a year, or 1045 jobs at $100,000 a year. With these kind of numbers, conservatives should be worried less about creeping socialism and more about imminent revolution."
Laura Norman wrote the above to The Wall Street Journal yesterday, and it identifies the situation well.
Geitner yesterday shared that 1 of 3 jobs in the United States are "employed by AIG" in some way.
Obama hits the streets daily in the media blitz of our lives, to help the American people vaguely understand what a clusterf____we have, and that more unravels each day. I know clusterf___, also known as "goat rodeos" and I know that we have not even begun to uncover the frauds. False facts have prevailed for years.
Our Dow Projections are your trading tool. It's what I do best. Yesterday allowed profits for both put and call traders, if day trading, and for tight profits. It's quite easy to miss a large move right now, as we did Monday, as one never knows what now moves the market, other than a trigger that sets up moves. Market manipulation takes place without our knowing it.
We will continue to trade OTM put and call, open signal and new buy, settling for tight profits until we see the establishment of a further trend up. The count is now skewed, meaning the market is "waiting".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
If we were just sitting together, drinking coffee, watching a sunrise over the Florida ocean, I might ask or impart:
*How do know when it’s time to be depressed?
*You are supposed to be right where you are
*Awareness, in of itself, is transformative.
*Do you ever stretch like a dog, and think like a child?
*Life is a meaningless play going nowhere for no reason.
*Be in the world, but not of it
*What if it was here, what if it was now, what if it was already done?
*If you can observe, you won’t have the resistance
*We have a choice in how we respond, or even if we do
*Resistance is simply focusing on what you don’t want
*Focusing is making internal representations of what you want, or don’t want. It’s your choice.
*When you focus on what you don’t want you feel pain
*We can have control over what we focus on; there really is a law of attraction
*Put passion in the goal you are visualizing
*Whatever is happening to you, you created
*We chronically focus on what we don’t want, what we don’t like, and what is wrong
*Actions must be good to really work
*You can’t change people from their developmental level. I teach from a style of spiral dynamics, a way of understanding people
*Depression happens when you don’t get what you want, or feel controlled.
*Speak to people where they are; not where you are
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
How Fast Sentiment Changes
The week after triple witching the Dow was down 15 of the last 21 years, but had strong up moves in 2000 and 2007. Facts help us see patterns.
Monday's moves on the Geitner package sent the S&P 500 above 800, a strong resistance line, and took the Dow right back to the what were the former lows of the market, now considered euphoria for us all.
The Dow hit tops of 7723 by 3 p.m., with a 5.53% increase for the day. Wall Street liked what they heard.
Traders that played the call had to break all our rules, however, as the market opened with a huge exhaustive gap. Those traders that did play it up had up to 82% returns.
So, is there more upside? Perhaps. The next tops could run at 7750 to 7900, and with euphoria, anything is possible. And by day end yesterday we hit 7820. 7950 is the next resistance line.
Will, however, Main Street and the mood of the news take us with a backstep, and a larger consolidation? It's highly likely.
We will list two signals, our open put, which we used for a hedge with the many profits last week, and a recommendation for an OTM call, for the optimists that think more upside could occur.
And remember again, at 7750, where the market hit tops at 3.45 p.m., we hit the October bottoms that we all thought was the end of the world:) Perspectives change.
Whew. How fast sentiment changes.
And, by the way, small cars aren't selling. America doesn't want them. Gas is low. Why bother? (Check the statistics) As usual, we look forward without vision of past or future.
Monday's moves on the Geitner package sent the S&P 500 above 800, a strong resistance line, and took the Dow right back to the what were the former lows of the market, now considered euphoria for us all.
The Dow hit tops of 7723 by 3 p.m., with a 5.53% increase for the day. Wall Street liked what they heard.
Traders that played the call had to break all our rules, however, as the market opened with a huge exhaustive gap. Those traders that did play it up had up to 82% returns.
So, is there more upside? Perhaps. The next tops could run at 7750 to 7900, and with euphoria, anything is possible. And by day end yesterday we hit 7820. 7950 is the next resistance line.
Will, however, Main Street and the mood of the news take us with a backstep, and a larger consolidation? It's highly likely.
We will list two signals, our open put, which we used for a hedge with the many profits last week, and a recommendation for an OTM call, for the optimists that think more upside could occur.
And remember again, at 7750, where the market hit tops at 3.45 p.m., we hit the October bottoms that we all thought was the end of the world:) Perspectives change.
Whew. How fast sentiment changes.
And, by the way, small cars aren't selling. America doesn't want them. Gas is low. Why bother? (Check the statistics) As usual, we look forward without vision of past or future.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Agonizing Over the Small Stuff
Traders were able to profit on the April320P, buying as low as 3.20, selling to as high as 4.50, on Friday as the market again turned to our second Dow projected bottom at 7217. We've hit constant profits recently, but traders must be watching to trade, as this is a market that can move 400 points in a day with ease.
With a count of 8 to the put there is some good possibility of another bottom test, but Geitner unveils part of the economic package today, and the market mood may shift up. Wall Street will like this package, we think, while Main Street will potentially not.
Regardless, and personally sick to death of our stupidity in "sweating the small stuff" and missing the big picture, the market could shift sentiment after consolidation shortly and allow more upsurge.
Our President has a real plan, and yet again we miss the overview by focusing on false facts, the very lack of data that created this crisis. Our instant newsbites have made the information we receive actually just "particles of too much information.
Two way trades are likely, a return to upside more likely, and another sell off imminent. We are not yet out of any woods, and don't quite even know where we are.
In a nutshell, what we are not seeing,and where we are misled by Fox type newsbites of "socialism" and "what outrageous things Obama is doing" are truly babble. Read what a former Vice Chairman of the FED Reserve says, and recognize that false facts permeate our newsbites, just as they have permeated our financials, and have led our greed.
"By ALAN S. BLINDER
Ever since President Barack Obama released the budget last month, we have been hearing a fusillade of criticism claiming that the president, contrary to previous advertising, is not a centrist, but a "leftie" intent on leading the country down the path of socialism.
Let's see. Socialism means public ownership and control of businesses, right? So which industries does the president propose to nationalize?
Banking? Well, no. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner has made it clear that he opposes nationalizing banks, despite much outcry from the political left -- and even some from the right -- to do just that. Yes, it's a valid criticism that we are still waiting for Mr. Geithner's banking plan. But the budget commits an outrageous act of accounting honesty by including a $750 billion allowance as "a reserve for further efforts to stabilize the financial system." Given the popularity of bank bailouts, that was a courageous thing to do.
What about health care? Doesn't Mr. Obama want "socialized medicine"? No. He wants to reform the current system so that it costs less and covers more people. Disgracefully, the United States is the only advanced nation in the world that fails to cover every citizen -- even though we spend vastly more on health care than other nations.
Some reformers want the U.S. to adopt a single-payer system like other countries, such as "socialist" Canada and England -- which run firmly capitalist economies, by the way. But regardless of whether single-payer is a good idea, it's not Mr. Obama's. His health-insurance reform plan emphasizes choice (keeping what you have if you like it), greater efficiency (partly by utilizing information technology), and portability (your health coverage will follow you from job to job). Which part of that is socialist?
And, once again, the Obama budget recognizes, rather than hides, the need to pay the bills. Half the cost of health reform would be covered by a tax provision that has really raised a ruckus: Capping itemized deductions at the 28% bracket rate. Let's consider how socialist that idea is.
As the law now stands, when a family that does not itemize deductions on its tax return donates $100 to its favorite charity, the donation costs the family $100. But when an itemizing family in the 25% bracket donates $100, it costs them only $75 after tax. And when an itemizer in the 35% bracket donates $100, the after-tax cost is only $65. Thus the richer you are, the less it costs. Is it socialistic to say that seems a little backwards?
If that tax treatment strikes you as fair, try another example. Suppose those same three families each pay $10,000 a year in interest on their home mortgages. The cost to the non-itemizer is the full $10,000. For the family in the 25% bracket that itemizes, the net cost after taxes is only $7,500. And for the upper-income family in the 35% bracket that itemizes, the net cost is a mere $6,500. Just imagine a member of Congress proposing a homeownership subsidy like that directly, rather than through the tax code: 35% to the rich, 25% to the middle class, and nothing to the poor. Would anyone support it?
Enter Mr. Obama, the alleged leftist. Does he propose to end this "class warfare" on the middle and lower classes? No. He only wants to mitigate it slightly. He would reduce the 35% subsidy rate to 28% -- which would still leave the costs of charitable giving, mortgage interest, and much else far lower for the rich than for the poor. That's hardly a radical proposal. Indeed, it has been under discussion since the 1980s.
It's true: The president would like to do a bit more. Elsewhere in the budget, he proposes letting the Bush upper-bracket tax cuts expire in 2011, meaning the top rate would revert to where it was during the Clinton years: 39.6%. And Mr. Obama would still cap deductibility at 28%.
Unsurprisingly, the president's proposal to let the top rate return to 39.6% has unleashed a firestorm of criticism from people who claim that such radical redistribution would prolong the recession, destroy entrepreneurship, and pretty much end capitalism as we know it -- just as it did during the Great Prosperity of the 1990s, I suppose. Some claims parody themselves.
So where does all this leave us on the road to socialism? If Mr. Obama is able to get all of these proposals through Congress, the U.S. will have a fully private banking system, propped up with temporary government support; a uniquely American health-care system that covers virtually everyone; and a somewhat more progressive income tax.
If this is socialism, then let's make the most of it"
Mr. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.
With a count of 8 to the put there is some good possibility of another bottom test, but Geitner unveils part of the economic package today, and the market mood may shift up. Wall Street will like this package, we think, while Main Street will potentially not.
Regardless, and personally sick to death of our stupidity in "sweating the small stuff" and missing the big picture, the market could shift sentiment after consolidation shortly and allow more upsurge.
Our President has a real plan, and yet again we miss the overview by focusing on false facts, the very lack of data that created this crisis. Our instant newsbites have made the information we receive actually just "particles of too much information.
Two way trades are likely, a return to upside more likely, and another sell off imminent. We are not yet out of any woods, and don't quite even know where we are.
In a nutshell, what we are not seeing,and where we are misled by Fox type newsbites of "socialism" and "what outrageous things Obama is doing" are truly babble. Read what a former Vice Chairman of the FED Reserve says, and recognize that false facts permeate our newsbites, just as they have permeated our financials, and have led our greed.
"By ALAN S. BLINDER
Ever since President Barack Obama released the budget last month, we have been hearing a fusillade of criticism claiming that the president, contrary to previous advertising, is not a centrist, but a "leftie" intent on leading the country down the path of socialism.
Let's see. Socialism means public ownership and control of businesses, right? So which industries does the president propose to nationalize?
Banking? Well, no. Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner has made it clear that he opposes nationalizing banks, despite much outcry from the political left -- and even some from the right -- to do just that. Yes, it's a valid criticism that we are still waiting for Mr. Geithner's banking plan. But the budget commits an outrageous act of accounting honesty by including a $750 billion allowance as "a reserve for further efforts to stabilize the financial system." Given the popularity of bank bailouts, that was a courageous thing to do.
What about health care? Doesn't Mr. Obama want "socialized medicine"? No. He wants to reform the current system so that it costs less and covers more people. Disgracefully, the United States is the only advanced nation in the world that fails to cover every citizen -- even though we spend vastly more on health care than other nations.
Some reformers want the U.S. to adopt a single-payer system like other countries, such as "socialist" Canada and England -- which run firmly capitalist economies, by the way. But regardless of whether single-payer is a good idea, it's not Mr. Obama's. His health-insurance reform plan emphasizes choice (keeping what you have if you like it), greater efficiency (partly by utilizing information technology), and portability (your health coverage will follow you from job to job). Which part of that is socialist?
And, once again, the Obama budget recognizes, rather than hides, the need to pay the bills. Half the cost of health reform would be covered by a tax provision that has really raised a ruckus: Capping itemized deductions at the 28% bracket rate. Let's consider how socialist that idea is.
As the law now stands, when a family that does not itemize deductions on its tax return donates $100 to its favorite charity, the donation costs the family $100. But when an itemizing family in the 25% bracket donates $100, it costs them only $75 after tax. And when an itemizer in the 35% bracket donates $100, the after-tax cost is only $65. Thus the richer you are, the less it costs. Is it socialistic to say that seems a little backwards?
If that tax treatment strikes you as fair, try another example. Suppose those same three families each pay $10,000 a year in interest on their home mortgages. The cost to the non-itemizer is the full $10,000. For the family in the 25% bracket that itemizes, the net cost after taxes is only $7,500. And for the upper-income family in the 35% bracket that itemizes, the net cost is a mere $6,500. Just imagine a member of Congress proposing a homeownership subsidy like that directly, rather than through the tax code: 35% to the rich, 25% to the middle class, and nothing to the poor. Would anyone support it?
Enter Mr. Obama, the alleged leftist. Does he propose to end this "class warfare" on the middle and lower classes? No. He only wants to mitigate it slightly. He would reduce the 35% subsidy rate to 28% -- which would still leave the costs of charitable giving, mortgage interest, and much else far lower for the rich than for the poor. That's hardly a radical proposal. Indeed, it has been under discussion since the 1980s.
It's true: The president would like to do a bit more. Elsewhere in the budget, he proposes letting the Bush upper-bracket tax cuts expire in 2011, meaning the top rate would revert to where it was during the Clinton years: 39.6%. And Mr. Obama would still cap deductibility at 28%.
Unsurprisingly, the president's proposal to let the top rate return to 39.6% has unleashed a firestorm of criticism from people who claim that such radical redistribution would prolong the recession, destroy entrepreneurship, and pretty much end capitalism as we know it -- just as it did during the Great Prosperity of the 1990s, I suppose. Some claims parody themselves.
So where does all this leave us on the road to socialism? If Mr. Obama is able to get all of these proposals through Congress, the U.S. will have a fully private banking system, propped up with temporary government support; a uniquely American health-care system that covers virtually everyone; and a somewhat more progressive income tax.
If this is socialism, then let's make the most of it"
Mr. Blinder is a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.
Friday, March 20, 2009
It's March Expiry and a Market of Pure Craziness
It's March expiry. In a market of pure craziness.
First, we are a stupid American people. The 165 million bonus discussion has taken over the whole country, the Congress, and now people want Geitner to quit or be fired, and the bi partisan games continue.
What is sad is that no one gets this is a small thing, not a big thing. Sure it's wrong, it's messed up, but the situation at AIG is beyond our comprehension, and far beyond the Congress that has given the money, all the way back.
It's quite simple to me as a business consultant. AIG is what is called in my world a "giant clusterf___". When there is a "clusterf___" it is similar to a goat rodeo. If you put all the goats in a fenced in area they will kill themselves with their own stupidity, just as we are now seeing the nation take offense to a "small thing" and continue to miss the "big things" that caused it.
The bottom line: AIG is a clusterf___. Only Hank Greenberg, the former Chairman, convicted of fraud in 2005, even understands the size and scope of the shell game. No one can unravel a clusterf___.
We let it happen and we paid people retentions to get us out of the situation they got us in to. It's sadly part of the game. They may be creeps, they may not, but what is key is that this is a "small issue," yet again wasting our time, and the point of a bi partisan series of games.
And we waste precious days as a nation babbling about bonuses, all caught in the quagmire of no one originally setting it right.
But the market has been fun.
7588 as the high and 7329 as the low, all in one day. All new buys from yesterday's alerts were available at below prior day close, and both put and call could have sold for intraday profits of up to 61%.
We continue to hold a longer term hedge April put.
First, we are a stupid American people. The 165 million bonus discussion has taken over the whole country, the Congress, and now people want Geitner to quit or be fired, and the bi partisan games continue.
What is sad is that no one gets this is a small thing, not a big thing. Sure it's wrong, it's messed up, but the situation at AIG is beyond our comprehension, and far beyond the Congress that has given the money, all the way back.
It's quite simple to me as a business consultant. AIG is what is called in my world a "giant clusterf___". When there is a "clusterf___" it is similar to a goat rodeo. If you put all the goats in a fenced in area they will kill themselves with their own stupidity, just as we are now seeing the nation take offense to a "small thing" and continue to miss the "big things" that caused it.
The bottom line: AIG is a clusterf___. Only Hank Greenberg, the former Chairman, convicted of fraud in 2005, even understands the size and scope of the shell game. No one can unravel a clusterf___.
We let it happen and we paid people retentions to get us out of the situation they got us in to. It's sadly part of the game. They may be creeps, they may not, but what is key is that this is a "small issue," yet again wasting our time, and the point of a bi partisan series of games.
And we waste precious days as a nation babbling about bonuses, all caught in the quagmire of no one originally setting it right.
But the market has been fun.
7588 as the high and 7329 as the low, all in one day. All new buys from yesterday's alerts were available at below prior day close, and both put and call could have sold for intraday profits of up to 61%.
We continue to hold a longer term hedge April put.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Irrational Exuberance
Irrational exuberance is now occurring, after irrational pessimism, and it's great for trading. The volatility was extreme yesterday around the FOMC, with bottom tests at 7217, allowing traders to day trade again on the April370P for up to 1.00 per contract, in addition to holding as our hedge. Better, our day trade on the March370C was exceptional, with traders reporting profits of up to 5.00 per contract!! in same day trading.
There is little to comment on that is not already ad nauseum. The shorts are now dead in the water. We'll be talking much about shorting in coming weeks, as it's the hot topic, the trading public first learning that shorting was a profit game, and now perhaps beaten up by a 1200 point rise in just a few days.
Calls continue to lead, but the market is now vastly overbought, so take prudent risk. There is little really that is creating uptrend, other than the exhaustion of the downturn, and that rampant fear that led the decline.
There is little to comment on that is not already ad nauseum. The shorts are now dead in the water. We'll be talking much about shorting in coming weeks, as it's the hot topic, the trading public first learning that shorting was a profit game, and now perhaps beaten up by a 1200 point rise in just a few days.
Calls continue to lead, but the market is now vastly overbought, so take prudent risk. There is little really that is creating uptrend, other than the exhaustion of the downturn, and that rampant fear that led the decline.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
The Bull Rally Made It
The bull rally made it. The market yesterday hit tops of 7437, in dual run ups. The March 370C was available as low as 1.85 and and could have sold to highs of 5.60.
Traders reported day trading this call for 1.00 and 2.00 per contract also. The April 370C, our hedge, also had day trade plays of 3.50 to 5.30, for any trader online watching the support and resistance lines.
And, the market went to lows of 7132 in morning trading.
Whew. Great profits, and fast trading. We've never seen volatility like this.
The FOMC announces at 2.15 p.m EST. The market makers have obviously bought it up in advance of the announcement, and thusly it could be priced in to the announcement already, some say.
Volatility is likely on an FOMC day, especially in this type of market. We'll play put and call again.
Floydian Therapy:
We need a lesson at the beginning . . . It is a Monday. You are 44 years old. Someone you know, that you trust, well informed, tells you that must make a change. Life or death. Change or die.
This informed person tells you if you change you will live much longer, and with less pain. (A good example might be to change your diet after your massive heart attack?) Of course you will do this as it implies reason.
But the fact is that you are probably deluding yourself and will do nothing.
The odds are 9 to 1 that you will do nothing.
Shocked. Don’t be. 8 of 10 people that take private therapy will do NOTHING with it, will make no changes. Prescriptions for mental health are quite unnecessary with over 80% of the people that are actual prescribed them. Down deep you already knew this, even if you are taking such medications. The placebo is now often the effect, or the diagnosis is based on societal perception. Are there really 40 million depressed people in the U.S.A? :)
Frames are the mental structures that define how we see the world. We reject new facts that don’t fit into our structure. To change behavior you have to change the frames.
The secret is that JOY is a better motivator than fear. Most change takes place, or we see the need of, because of FEAR. Change is not motivated by fear. Crisis is not a powerful impetus for change. Facts do not set us free.
Despite the fear, we are not respectful of it.
So here’s fear. People who live to 85 have a 50% change of being senile.
Do something about 200 times in a row and you’ve created a habit.
But think again. 2/3 of the people that are prescribed statin drugs for cholesterol stop taking the drug because they see no change. They quit because they didn’t feel any better.
The good news is the brain has the ability to change lifelong, and that big changes produce big results. Radical, sweeping fast change works best.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Traders reported day trading this call for 1.00 and 2.00 per contract also. The April 370C, our hedge, also had day trade plays of 3.50 to 5.30, for any trader online watching the support and resistance lines.
And, the market went to lows of 7132 in morning trading.
Whew. Great profits, and fast trading. We've never seen volatility like this.
The FOMC announces at 2.15 p.m EST. The market makers have obviously bought it up in advance of the announcement, and thusly it could be priced in to the announcement already, some say.
Volatility is likely on an FOMC day, especially in this type of market. We'll play put and call again.
Floydian Therapy:
We need a lesson at the beginning . . . It is a Monday. You are 44 years old. Someone you know, that you trust, well informed, tells you that must make a change. Life or death. Change or die.
This informed person tells you if you change you will live much longer, and with less pain. (A good example might be to change your diet after your massive heart attack?) Of course you will do this as it implies reason.
But the fact is that you are probably deluding yourself and will do nothing.
The odds are 9 to 1 that you will do nothing.
Shocked. Don’t be. 8 of 10 people that take private therapy will do NOTHING with it, will make no changes. Prescriptions for mental health are quite unnecessary with over 80% of the people that are actual prescribed them. Down deep you already knew this, even if you are taking such medications. The placebo is now often the effect, or the diagnosis is based on societal perception. Are there really 40 million depressed people in the U.S.A? :)
Frames are the mental structures that define how we see the world. We reject new facts that don’t fit into our structure. To change behavior you have to change the frames.
The secret is that JOY is a better motivator than fear. Most change takes place, or we see the need of, because of FEAR. Change is not motivated by fear. Crisis is not a powerful impetus for change. Facts do not set us free.
Despite the fear, we are not respectful of it.
So here’s fear. People who live to 85 have a 50% change of being senile.
Do something about 200 times in a row and you’ve created a habit.
But think again. 2/3 of the people that are prescribed statin drugs for cholesterol stop taking the drug because they see no change. They quit because they didn’t feel any better.
The good news is the brain has the ability to change lifelong, and that big changes produce big results. Radical, sweeping fast change works best.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, March 16, 2009
Optimism is Showing
There has been a rally. 4 days. Optimism is showing. Thus, it's likely for another bottom test, or at least a scare, while our citizens assimilate the changes that are taking place fundamentally within our banking and financial sectors, now the backbone of our economy because the U.S. no longer successfully manages. The markets Friday went to our resistance tops at 7292, and again pushed at 7060, in tight trading.
Both of our signals were profitable for day trading Friday. The March 370 Call was a 1.50 average contract profit, and day traders played the April 320 put for up to 2.00 per contract, and many traders made second buys.
We'll hold the April put as hedge, and watch futures carefully, and recommend a call today for March expiry, same day trade only, for tight profits, again watching news and futures before a buy.
If upside occurs take tight profits, and leave money on the table. Last week we had good returns in the OEX, and we'll watch the rally, or bear market rally with open arms. Our newest Dow Projections are below; remember, Dow projections are some of my best work, and can be key to your option trading success.
Both of our signals were profitable for day trading Friday. The March 370 Call was a 1.50 average contract profit, and day traders played the April 320 put for up to 2.00 per contract, and many traders made second buys.
We'll hold the April put as hedge, and watch futures carefully, and recommend a call today for March expiry, same day trade only, for tight profits, again watching news and futures before a buy.
If upside occurs take tight profits, and leave money on the table. Last week we had good returns in the OEX, and we'll watch the rally, or bear market rally with open arms. Our newest Dow Projections are below; remember, Dow projections are some of my best work, and can be key to your option trading success.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Good Stock Investing is Boring, Options are Not
George Soros says, "If investing is entertaining and you are having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good stock investing is boring." He's right, and it's why smart investors "play the market" with index cash derivative options, the OEX, while conservatively investing in key core and speculative stocks, and studiously track just what they hold.
We hit Floydian highs yesterday, and our OEWCJ calls could have been sold for up to 150% profits, three days maximum holds. Congratulations, all. Put traders took first buys on the April 320P at around 6.50, at R2, and we will hold.
As you read Dow projections you'll see I saw the third top at 7237. We hit 7232 on the Dow yesterday, what could be a top. The Dow projections below identify the next resistance lines if a true bull rally could be beginning.
We doubt it. Somehow not enough is good yet, there is still too much fear, and it's 70% likely to us that we'll have a stronger downside, soon. We may be early in projecting this, but any trigger could induce fear, and lead a support line run down to same support lines we've seen all week.
Our call recommendation is a day trade. We'd only hold puts over the weekend, an April issue, so it can be hedge for us.
Bernie Madoff is in jail. That may have actually influenced the market, comic as it is. Geitner testified, and tried to explain to people that know nothing in Congress that this is one big mess and he can't believe it, and more crap comes out of the woodwork hourly. I can only imagine the issues Geitner deals with, as exposing the house of cards continues to unravel, but understanding what it did to the financial system is even more complicated.
Again, we've had some superb profits this week. Let's count our blessings. Smart day traders are able to scalp tight .50 to 1.50 contracts if they are online studying by the minute, and puts have rewarded us.
We've missed 4 signals in the last 30 days, and this week surely helped make up for it.
This is the hardest market to read and project I've seen in my 30 years of trading. Buffet said falling "off a cliff." WE have seen first what GREED can do, with no regulation or structure, and we are now seeing what FEAR can do. It's the perfect lesson for us all.
Lastly, I've posted President Obama's complete layman version budget on the website (in the left column with other Lessons In Investing articles) This is an Acobat PDF document that is 128 pages and is the crux of his vision and plan. Stop watching TV, reading papers, and listening to fodder.
It's free, it's on our website, and if you truly read this, you can make a fair judgement of your opinion.
It's called A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America's Promise. This is the plan he is trying to enact.
Floydian Therapy:
I often tell people that they will need to, very effectively, learn to water a rock garden. People smile when they hear this. How you hear it alone is part of who you are.
Your perception is often that something does not need to be done, or that it “is this way,” and this is part of the problem. What we perceive to be “real” is often not, and what we understand is often incomplete.
Everything necessary to solve all human problems is simple and in you right now.
You are the complete problem with yourself, so know that up front.
It’s Mom and Dad, genetics, who your friends were, and are, where you live and what you eat, but it is as much your perception.
Smoking is bad, some drinking is good, exercise is essential. White bread is bad. Prayer does help. Do not eat too much, and exercise every day, and you will not get fat.
You can live a lot longer than before, and that makes you worry more.
It is important that you like your work, but most people don’t. When you are happy is when you do your best work, so find work that makes you happy. Until you do this you will not be happy.
Get over yourself. You really do not have any real problems that you didn’t create yourself, so quit creating problems. Think this out. Once you figure out all the problems you keep developing and stop doing them, things are easier.
This all may take a lifetime but this is how you do it.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
We hit Floydian highs yesterday, and our OEWCJ calls could have been sold for up to 150% profits, three days maximum holds. Congratulations, all. Put traders took first buys on the April 320P at around 6.50, at R2, and we will hold.
As you read Dow projections you'll see I saw the third top at 7237. We hit 7232 on the Dow yesterday, what could be a top. The Dow projections below identify the next resistance lines if a true bull rally could be beginning.
We doubt it. Somehow not enough is good yet, there is still too much fear, and it's 70% likely to us that we'll have a stronger downside, soon. We may be early in projecting this, but any trigger could induce fear, and lead a support line run down to same support lines we've seen all week.
Our call recommendation is a day trade. We'd only hold puts over the weekend, an April issue, so it can be hedge for us.
Bernie Madoff is in jail. That may have actually influenced the market, comic as it is. Geitner testified, and tried to explain to people that know nothing in Congress that this is one big mess and he can't believe it, and more crap comes out of the woodwork hourly. I can only imagine the issues Geitner deals with, as exposing the house of cards continues to unravel, but understanding what it did to the financial system is even more complicated.
Again, we've had some superb profits this week. Let's count our blessings. Smart day traders are able to scalp tight .50 to 1.50 contracts if they are online studying by the minute, and puts have rewarded us.
We've missed 4 signals in the last 30 days, and this week surely helped make up for it.
This is the hardest market to read and project I've seen in my 30 years of trading. Buffet said falling "off a cliff." WE have seen first what GREED can do, with no regulation or structure, and we are now seeing what FEAR can do. It's the perfect lesson for us all.
Lastly, I've posted President Obama's complete layman version budget on the website (in the left column with other Lessons In Investing articles) This is an Acobat PDF document that is 128 pages and is the crux of his vision and plan. Stop watching TV, reading papers, and listening to fodder.
It's free, it's on our website, and if you truly read this, you can make a fair judgement of your opinion.
It's called A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America's Promise. This is the plan he is trying to enact.
Floydian Therapy:
I often tell people that they will need to, very effectively, learn to water a rock garden. People smile when they hear this. How you hear it alone is part of who you are.
Your perception is often that something does not need to be done, or that it “is this way,” and this is part of the problem. What we perceive to be “real” is often not, and what we understand is often incomplete.
Everything necessary to solve all human problems is simple and in you right now.
You are the complete problem with yourself, so know that up front.
It’s Mom and Dad, genetics, who your friends were, and are, where you live and what you eat, but it is as much your perception.
Smoking is bad, some drinking is good, exercise is essential. White bread is bad. Prayer does help. Do not eat too much, and exercise every day, and you will not get fat.
You can live a lot longer than before, and that makes you worry more.
It is important that you like your work, but most people don’t. When you are happy is when you do your best work, so find work that makes you happy. Until you do this you will not be happy.
Get over yourself. You really do not have any real problems that you didn’t create yourself, so quit creating problems. Think this out. Once you figure out all the problems you keep developing and stop doing them, things are easier.
This all may take a lifetime but this is how you do it.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Man Exploited Man in Greed... and Led to this Debacle
There is an old polish Proverb "under capitalism man exploits man, under socialism the reverse is true." Sadly, part of this appears right now to be all too true, as man exploited man in GREED, and led to this debacle.
After Tuesday's bull run, many saw it as a "bear market rally." With yesterday's trading we saw initial follow through at the opening, but the following may show us a bit of "why" and "what" is happening:
"To come up with a list of the exact days on which those bull markets commenced, I relied on the definition employed by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm: For them, a bull market requires one of three conditions to hold: (1) at least a 30% rise in the Dow in 50 calendar days, (2) at least a 13% rise in the Dow in 155 calendar days, or (3) at least a 30% reversal in the Value Line Geometric index. Since 1900, according to the research firm, there have been by this set of criteria no fewer than 34 bear market bottoms.
In nearly half of these bull markets, believe it or not, the Dow rose by less than one percent on the first day. That should put to rest the notion that bull markets always begin with huge powerful and exciting up-thrusts.
What is powerful and exciting, however, is a bear market rally. Consider the following factoid: During the Great Depression, there were a handful of calendar months in which the Dow rose by more than 20%.
The month with the biggest Dow up move, for example, was April 1933, when the Dow rose by 40.2%. In August 1932, furthermore, the Dow rose by 34.8%.
Now that is excitement. But, needless to say, those months didn't mark the end of that decade's bear market.
Another feature of Tuesday's rally that also doesn't seem quite right: It was led by financials. This is a source of concern because rarely does the same sector lead in two successive bull markets."
Interesting commentary above, and the market will hit many resistance areas. At the same time, many investors are "watching", using the historical data from 1932 when volume on the NYSE contracted to only 1 million shares a day. It was on the 7/8/32 that the Dow hit it's bottom (of interest, 41.22) and volume surged to 4-5-6 million shares as the market surged higher. A new bull market had started amidst the Great Depression.
What traders note is "where did all the money come from" then, and noted how fast the market turned. When the price is right, the money will be there.
This is what the market waits for, and the talking heads, newsletters and analysts babble about. No one knows.
The market topped at 7050, right at our resistance lines, before falling again. Day traders reported good tight trades on our recommended no more than two day signal, the March 350C.
Up to $1.00 a contract profits were possible several times, and even tighter profit trades. We'll list as an open signal today for any traders still holding.
And, as contrarians, we'll list the possibility of downside as we have now hit resistance lines; study our updated and lengthy Dow projections listed below as puts have a good chance of a doubling unless we see more strength to the upside today.
Floydian Therapy:
Author Elizabeth Garret writes in Eat, Pray, Love that each of us, and even cities, have a WORD. For example, her word for Rome is SEX. Her word for NYC is ELECTRIC. What takes it a bit farther is if we are able to find the word that defines who we are, such as your own identification of what you see yourself as.
As an example, one of my clients is a SEEKER, another a CYNIC, another CONFORMER.
Identification of self helps one to create self.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
After Tuesday's bull run, many saw it as a "bear market rally." With yesterday's trading we saw initial follow through at the opening, but the following may show us a bit of "why" and "what" is happening:
"To come up with a list of the exact days on which those bull markets commenced, I relied on the definition employed by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm: For them, a bull market requires one of three conditions to hold: (1) at least a 30% rise in the Dow in 50 calendar days, (2) at least a 13% rise in the Dow in 155 calendar days, or (3) at least a 30% reversal in the Value Line Geometric index. Since 1900, according to the research firm, there have been by this set of criteria no fewer than 34 bear market bottoms.
In nearly half of these bull markets, believe it or not, the Dow rose by less than one percent on the first day. That should put to rest the notion that bull markets always begin with huge powerful and exciting up-thrusts.
What is powerful and exciting, however, is a bear market rally. Consider the following factoid: During the Great Depression, there were a handful of calendar months in which the Dow rose by more than 20%.
The month with the biggest Dow up move, for example, was April 1933, when the Dow rose by 40.2%. In August 1932, furthermore, the Dow rose by 34.8%.
Now that is excitement. But, needless to say, those months didn't mark the end of that decade's bear market.
Another feature of Tuesday's rally that also doesn't seem quite right: It was led by financials. This is a source of concern because rarely does the same sector lead in two successive bull markets."
Interesting commentary above, and the market will hit many resistance areas. At the same time, many investors are "watching", using the historical data from 1932 when volume on the NYSE contracted to only 1 million shares a day. It was on the 7/8/32 that the Dow hit it's bottom (of interest, 41.22) and volume surged to 4-5-6 million shares as the market surged higher. A new bull market had started amidst the Great Depression.
What traders note is "where did all the money come from" then, and noted how fast the market turned. When the price is right, the money will be there.
This is what the market waits for, and the talking heads, newsletters and analysts babble about. No one knows.
The market topped at 7050, right at our resistance lines, before falling again. Day traders reported good tight trades on our recommended no more than two day signal, the March 350C.
Up to $1.00 a contract profits were possible several times, and even tighter profit trades. We'll list as an open signal today for any traders still holding.
And, as contrarians, we'll list the possibility of downside as we have now hit resistance lines; study our updated and lengthy Dow projections listed below as puts have a good chance of a doubling unless we see more strength to the upside today.
Floydian Therapy:
Author Elizabeth Garret writes in Eat, Pray, Love that each of us, and even cities, have a WORD. For example, her word for Rome is SEX. Her word for NYC is ELECTRIC. What takes it a bit farther is if we are able to find the word that defines who we are, such as your own identification of what you see yourself as.
As an example, one of my clients is a SEEKER, another a CYNIC, another CONFORMER.
Identification of self helps one to create self.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Dr Doom
Roubini is Dr. Doom, and predicted this. He's another economic genius, like Krugman, who we provided a URL link for yesterday on his view of what Obama must do.
Now, read Roubini:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apvoCvLuZJkg
And after you've read what this economic powerhouse thinks, the Dr. Doom that predicted it that the government talks to, and he says the S&P at 500, perhaps then the incredible rally of 3/10 will seem less credible.
Whipsaw is likely, with consolidation possible, but more upside just as likely.
The market was already ready to turn, but 4 things led the burst up:
1. Bernanke tells us the recession could be over by the end of 2009. (Please smile)
2. Citibank actually makes a profit for the first two months. (Please smile again)
3. Obama clarifies stimulus packages, and Madoff goes to court.
4. The market WANTED to turn.
And on and on as to why. Our Dow projections are right on target, and although we may have consolidation, we continue to see at least a day or two of stronger and "exciting" upside.
Yesterday we hit the bulls eye, and our recommended March 340C hit highs of 10.10, for profits of up to 140% in a two day hold. Traders following futures did not take entry to the put, and we open the day with no open signal.
Now, read Roubini:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=apvoCvLuZJkg
And after you've read what this economic powerhouse thinks, the Dr. Doom that predicted it that the government talks to, and he says the S&P at 500, perhaps then the incredible rally of 3/10 will seem less credible.
Whipsaw is likely, with consolidation possible, but more upside just as likely.
The market was already ready to turn, but 4 things led the burst up:
1. Bernanke tells us the recession could be over by the end of 2009. (Please smile)
2. Citibank actually makes a profit for the first two months. (Please smile again)
3. Obama clarifies stimulus packages, and Madoff goes to court.
4. The market WANTED to turn.
And on and on as to why. Our Dow projections are right on target, and although we may have consolidation, we continue to see at least a day or two of stronger and "exciting" upside.
Yesterday we hit the bulls eye, and our recommended March 340C hit highs of 10.10, for profits of up to 140% in a two day hold. Traders following futures did not take entry to the put, and we open the day with no open signal.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Capitalism Led Our War on Terror
Al Capone said, "Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class."
Capitalism led our war on terror. First we created the TSA, a game to make our citizens feel safer, and a variety of "tricks" to create compliance. The amount of money spent on terror is astounding, yet nothing is really safer. Much of what we must understand is first what we must "uncreate," which is the mentality that more is good, that it is "okay" to take away our human privacy rights, and that the government knows what to do.
Many of our acts as a nation have been from this parallel. As an example, the GOP now preaches socialism and nationalism as Obama's agenda, forgetting the 350 Billion Paulson to his buddies bail out that occurred before he took office, and the series of events that the Bush Administration led. Sadly, the GOP now forgets this, and accuses us of socialism. And even sadder, we may need it.
Now, we lead with irrational pessimism:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29553363/
And, if you want to know Floyd's opinion on what is happening, study the following article. I follow and study Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist, and believe him one of the smartest people we have studying this situation. Skip the babbles about socialism, or free enterprise, and shoot Rush Limbaugh. Study this if you want to learn from knowledge:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26430979/obamas_bailout
Buffet said the economy "fell off a cliff." Even Buffet lost money last year, and his holdings are all taking a beating, as America has finally stopped shopping. The fear is rampant in the world, and it transfixes the mood of the public, making the "bad" seem worse, and never ending.
We did well on the March340P yesterday, with lows of 4.90 and highs of 7.60. Most traders reported 2.00 per contract profits in the whipsaw market, same day.
Call traders that bought the March340C during whipsaw were able to trade for tight day profits on the repeated whipsaws of the market; for those traders not day trading a first buy was made on this issue and we'll now hold.
Floydian Therapy:
A rock is not hard. You just believe it to be.
"Is their more then one answer to the Rock subject?"
The answer is yes, and all are right. It is how we see something that makes it as it is. It is when we are absolute in our fact of this that we create war, and religion. "
"Once you say a rock is hard then it can not ever be anything else easily. When you settle for a truth, it will be hard to change. :) When God talks to you, how do you know its God? Be like water, have no shape. The more I know the more I know I don't know.
What we know is what we both want to believe, and have been told. The very FACT that we only know so much is proof of what we do not know.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Capitalism led our war on terror. First we created the TSA, a game to make our citizens feel safer, and a variety of "tricks" to create compliance. The amount of money spent on terror is astounding, yet nothing is really safer. Much of what we must understand is first what we must "uncreate," which is the mentality that more is good, that it is "okay" to take away our human privacy rights, and that the government knows what to do.
Many of our acts as a nation have been from this parallel. As an example, the GOP now preaches socialism and nationalism as Obama's agenda, forgetting the 350 Billion Paulson to his buddies bail out that occurred before he took office, and the series of events that the Bush Administration led. Sadly, the GOP now forgets this, and accuses us of socialism. And even sadder, we may need it.
Now, we lead with irrational pessimism:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29553363/
And, if you want to know Floyd's opinion on what is happening, study the following article. I follow and study Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist, and believe him one of the smartest people we have studying this situation. Skip the babbles about socialism, or free enterprise, and shoot Rush Limbaugh. Study this if you want to learn from knowledge:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26430979/obamas_bailout
Buffet said the economy "fell off a cliff." Even Buffet lost money last year, and his holdings are all taking a beating, as America has finally stopped shopping. The fear is rampant in the world, and it transfixes the mood of the public, making the "bad" seem worse, and never ending.
We did well on the March340P yesterday, with lows of 4.90 and highs of 7.60. Most traders reported 2.00 per contract profits in the whipsaw market, same day.
Call traders that bought the March340C during whipsaw were able to trade for tight day profits on the repeated whipsaws of the market; for those traders not day trading a first buy was made on this issue and we'll now hold.
Floydian Therapy:
A rock is not hard. You just believe it to be.
"Is their more then one answer to the Rock subject?"
The answer is yes, and all are right. It is how we see something that makes it as it is. It is when we are absolute in our fact of this that we create war, and religion. "
"Once you say a rock is hard then it can not ever be anything else easily. When you settle for a truth, it will be hard to change. :) When God talks to you, how do you know its God? Be like water, have no shape. The more I know the more I know I don't know.
What we know is what we both want to believe, and have been told. The very FACT that we only know so much is proof of what we do not know.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, March 9, 2009
OEX Success Win Ratio 1/1 thru 3/7->> 83.5%
The Dow was down 1469 points March 9-22,2001. Doesn't even seem like a big number anymore, does it?
It's fallen 25% since January.
On Friday the market hit Dow tops of 6795, and bottoms of 6429, 13 year lows. Both the March 310P and March 340C were available for sales for up to 2.00 a contract profits Friday during the whipsaw market that took us to new downside tests, only to close above prior day close by day end. And, we hit stop loss on our now OTM March call.
GM hit 75 year lows, and the market has dropped over 20% in the last 10 market days. President Obama has a radical plan to change our scope of entry, as I see it, and scope of entry meaning "how we act as a populace" and who we support. Socialism, nationalism or whatever it is being called....it is a radical re-shift of priorities to allow the middle class to finally NOT be the only sector of our populace that pays.
What we're eliminating is only what was developed during the Bush "conservative years," a terminology that should make the smart smile with disbelief, as this conservative President was truly one of our most radical, shifting wealth, and eliminating all regulation.
What is Paulson doing now, and how much money did he make? I'm just curious, and you should be.
Rhetoric pervades our media, with bi partisan babbles in full swing. Few understand, I suppose, that what is happening could allow our country to actually "shift" focus and become a world power again, built on the "all", not the "few."
As we change our own perspectives, do not get caught in the minimalist detail of "what should not be done," but accept sweeping change that may provide catalyst to a shift in our economic perspective.
It has been proven that to do two things effectively at the same time that one must perform the dual functions together a minimum of 2000 times to be as accurate as when doing only one thing at a time.
Consider joining us at Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring services if you are interested in serious one on one training in the market. The type of market we have is perfect for truly learning to trade for a living.
http://www.oexoptions.com/AdvancedMentoring/AM.html
OEX Success Win Ratio 1/1 thru 3/7-83.5%
It's fallen 25% since January.
On Friday the market hit Dow tops of 6795, and bottoms of 6429, 13 year lows. Both the March 310P and March 340C were available for sales for up to 2.00 a contract profits Friday during the whipsaw market that took us to new downside tests, only to close above prior day close by day end. And, we hit stop loss on our now OTM March call.
GM hit 75 year lows, and the market has dropped over 20% in the last 10 market days. President Obama has a radical plan to change our scope of entry, as I see it, and scope of entry meaning "how we act as a populace" and who we support. Socialism, nationalism or whatever it is being called....it is a radical re-shift of priorities to allow the middle class to finally NOT be the only sector of our populace that pays.
What we're eliminating is only what was developed during the Bush "conservative years," a terminology that should make the smart smile with disbelief, as this conservative President was truly one of our most radical, shifting wealth, and eliminating all regulation.
What is Paulson doing now, and how much money did he make? I'm just curious, and you should be.
Rhetoric pervades our media, with bi partisan babbles in full swing. Few understand, I suppose, that what is happening could allow our country to actually "shift" focus and become a world power again, built on the "all", not the "few."
As we change our own perspectives, do not get caught in the minimalist detail of "what should not be done," but accept sweeping change that may provide catalyst to a shift in our economic perspective.
It has been proven that to do two things effectively at the same time that one must perform the dual functions together a minimum of 2000 times to be as accurate as when doing only one thing at a time.
Consider joining us at Level 3 or Advanced Mentoring services if you are interested in serious one on one training in the market. The type of market we have is perfect for truly learning to trade for a living.
http://www.oexoptions.com/AdvancedMentoring/AM.html
OEX Success Win Ratio 1/1 thru 3/7-83.5%
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Market is SO overbought!
You are smart subscribers. OEX Options was just rated in the top 10 Readers Choice Option Advisory Services by Stocks and Commodities Magazine!!! We're proud to provide this service, and are honored by the award and your business.
Yesterday we taught that after any 100 point up day there must be the follow through for any exhaustive gap up, or bear market rally, to begin. And it failed yesterday, with the market hitting 6550 on the theoretical Dow by 2.30 p.m.
Traders holding the March310P sold to highs of 8.20, for up to 70% returns on a two day hold!!! However, we'll stop loss on the March370C today, making this our fourth call loss, winning 18 of the last 22 trades.
The market is so overbought it's shocking, as even "the end of the world" often offers hope, as we saw in the 200 point run up the day before.
We will not yet project lower bottom tests. The media is abuzz with just how far this can go down, and what can happen. I believe if the country could unify in commitment, and stop the bipartisan games we'd be progressing.
Or Floyd's idea: Hire Warren Buffet, George Soros, Bill Gates, and three other true business economists and give them the control. Get it away from Congress. Let a "forum" develop the Obama plan that has been passed.
__________________________
To succeed in trading one must know the self first. The self is our created image of who we are, and the emotions that we show. As an example, Floyd believes that the math/analytical individual may do well at following patterns, but poorly at following the emotions of the market. Conversely the emotional person will tend to believe what they think should happen, rather than what does happen, and will fight the curve.
As an example, late last year even with the significant increase in money there was not a positive influence on the economy. Credit held tight as the banks hoarded, as Paulson had no controls to the bailout. Investors moved to money markets, Treasuries, and cash, which slowed the money supply.
Banks, which were never cautious at all, became cautious.
Friends of Floyd know that I have never put money in a bank, nor ever will. I don't think they are smart traders, or business people. I would never trade with a full service broker, as I believe the majority of them "kids" being lobbied to trade stocks, not invest for the investor. I personally know the FDIC is a sham, with barely enough money to cover a few bank failures, and personally believe banks have never understood even what the investor wants, and instead "created" what the investor will have.
And, the banks and brokerages have all been defiled.
Trader DS sent a shocking article and link. Please read carefully.
Hey, Floyd.
I ran across this and wanted to kick it your way for review. You have the subscriber
base that could make a difference provided you endorse it and its legitimacy. I would
really affect the OEX community and all fellow traders.
“A Congressman from Oregon has introduced a bill that would impose a transaction tax of 0.25% on sales/purchases of stocks/options/futures. I am enclosing a link to a
petition that has been started against this tax, a link to the Congressman's contact
info, and a link to info on the bill and other sponsors. The Congressman wants Wall
Street fat cats to pay for what they are doing by implementing this tax to help reimburse TARP. He amazingly doesn't realize (or doesn't care) what this would do to the average person who is starting to take control of their portfolio or trying to recoup losses by trading (since this would impact transactions even losses would be taxed not just profits). Hope you find this info helpful and please pass it along.”
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h1068/show
http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congress-to-block-trader-tax
http://www.defazio.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=127&Itemid=74
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/7043
Yesterday we taught that after any 100 point up day there must be the follow through for any exhaustive gap up, or bear market rally, to begin. And it failed yesterday, with the market hitting 6550 on the theoretical Dow by 2.30 p.m.
Traders holding the March310P sold to highs of 8.20, for up to 70% returns on a two day hold!!! However, we'll stop loss on the March370C today, making this our fourth call loss, winning 18 of the last 22 trades.
The market is so overbought it's shocking, as even "the end of the world" often offers hope, as we saw in the 200 point run up the day before.
We will not yet project lower bottom tests. The media is abuzz with just how far this can go down, and what can happen. I believe if the country could unify in commitment, and stop the bipartisan games we'd be progressing.
Or Floyd's idea: Hire Warren Buffet, George Soros, Bill Gates, and three other true business economists and give them the control. Get it away from Congress. Let a "forum" develop the Obama plan that has been passed.
__________________________
To succeed in trading one must know the self first. The self is our created image of who we are, and the emotions that we show. As an example, Floyd believes that the math/analytical individual may do well at following patterns, but poorly at following the emotions of the market. Conversely the emotional person will tend to believe what they think should happen, rather than what does happen, and will fight the curve.
As an example, late last year even with the significant increase in money there was not a positive influence on the economy. Credit held tight as the banks hoarded, as Paulson had no controls to the bailout. Investors moved to money markets, Treasuries, and cash, which slowed the money supply.
Banks, which were never cautious at all, became cautious.
Friends of Floyd know that I have never put money in a bank, nor ever will. I don't think they are smart traders, or business people. I would never trade with a full service broker, as I believe the majority of them "kids" being lobbied to trade stocks, not invest for the investor. I personally know the FDIC is a sham, with barely enough money to cover a few bank failures, and personally believe banks have never understood even what the investor wants, and instead "created" what the investor will have.
And, the banks and brokerages have all been defiled.
Trader DS sent a shocking article and link. Please read carefully.
Hey, Floyd.
I ran across this and wanted to kick it your way for review. You have the subscriber
base that could make a difference provided you endorse it and its legitimacy. I would
really affect the OEX community and all fellow traders.
“A Congressman from Oregon has introduced a bill that would impose a transaction tax of 0.25% on sales/purchases of stocks/options/futures. I am enclosing a link to a
petition that has been started against this tax, a link to the Congressman's contact
info, and a link to info on the bill and other sponsors. The Congressman wants Wall
Street fat cats to pay for what they are doing by implementing this tax to help reimburse TARP. He amazingly doesn't realize (or doesn't care) what this would do to the average person who is starting to take control of their portfolio or trying to recoup losses by trading (since this would impact transactions even losses would be taxed not just profits). Hope you find this info helpful and please pass it along.”
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/111-h1068/show
http://www.rallycongress.com/no2tradertax/1536/tell-congress-to-block-trader-tax
http://www.defazio.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=127&Itemid=74
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/7043
Thursday, March 5, 2009
The Economy Can be Jump-started
We saw the first upside yesterday in a long long time. As the market hit resistance lines there was hesitancy, but we did close over Floydian levels of 100 points up, a key to what could be the first upside.
My rule of thumb: the market must close 100 points or more UP to even consider any shift in sentiment. Wall Street finally did it yesterday, with 220 point moves by 3.30 p.m., before the market struggled at the 6950 resistance line, and faltered.
Today is the test, as the market must maintain upside to step in to its own exhaustive gap up (bear market rally) or a true bull rally. As the market hit the 3.00 hour yesterday we saw 215 point plus moves, a very positive sign for any type of rally, and right to our first Dow projections. We'll list a new call today, on the "count" of a shift in bell curve analysis, but noting to all traders that this is such a volatile market that any move can be undone in minutes.
These are extraordinary times. Traders write me daily with "what is happening, what will happen, why is this happening" and increasing concern about the news of nationalization and socialism.
At times I must smile.
"This crisis is neither the result of a normal turn of the business cycle nor an accident of history. We arrived at this point as a result of an era of profound irresponsibility that engulfed both private and public institutions from some of our largest companies' executive suites to the seats of of power of Washington D.C."-President Barack Obama
This man is our visionary. He gets it. If we truly can allow him to build a union of people, we can change our country. If we do not, and allow the bi-partisan politics to continue.....it does not look good.
For 8 years we allowed Bush to lead by fear, and false facts. I simply can't follow why an alternative approach can't be welcomed. Obviously what we have done has not worked. When I hear Rush Limbaugh lead the Republican Party I'm saddened even more. A buffoon sitting in Palm Beach looking for the President to fail. How very sad. Read this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29502272/
The strategic value to the economists is how we must analyze this market. These are the issues and "facts" they work from:
1. The economy can be jumpstarted. No one knows if any stimulus package will truly do this.
2. We are in a deflation. This is clear cut to Floydian logic, and the deflationary cycle must complete itself, despite our intervention.
3. The housing market will bottom out and recover. Will it? When?
4. A depression is a real possibility. During the great depression the Gross National Product fell 46% in four years.
5. U.S. Sovereign Risk is zero. What happens if the USD loses it status as the most credit worthy asset in the world? The idea that the U.S. could fail would be ridiculous just a few years ago, but fear that the United States could fail to repay its debts does not seem so crazy today.
My rule of thumb: the market must close 100 points or more UP to even consider any shift in sentiment. Wall Street finally did it yesterday, with 220 point moves by 3.30 p.m., before the market struggled at the 6950 resistance line, and faltered.
Today is the test, as the market must maintain upside to step in to its own exhaustive gap up (bear market rally) or a true bull rally. As the market hit the 3.00 hour yesterday we saw 215 point plus moves, a very positive sign for any type of rally, and right to our first Dow projections. We'll list a new call today, on the "count" of a shift in bell curve analysis, but noting to all traders that this is such a volatile market that any move can be undone in minutes.
These are extraordinary times. Traders write me daily with "what is happening, what will happen, why is this happening" and increasing concern about the news of nationalization and socialism.
At times I must smile.
"This crisis is neither the result of a normal turn of the business cycle nor an accident of history. We arrived at this point as a result of an era of profound irresponsibility that engulfed both private and public institutions from some of our largest companies' executive suites to the seats of of power of Washington D.C."-President Barack Obama
This man is our visionary. He gets it. If we truly can allow him to build a union of people, we can change our country. If we do not, and allow the bi-partisan politics to continue.....it does not look good.
For 8 years we allowed Bush to lead by fear, and false facts. I simply can't follow why an alternative approach can't be welcomed. Obviously what we have done has not worked. When I hear Rush Limbaugh lead the Republican Party I'm saddened even more. A buffoon sitting in Palm Beach looking for the President to fail. How very sad. Read this:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29502272/
The strategic value to the economists is how we must analyze this market. These are the issues and "facts" they work from:
1. The economy can be jumpstarted. No one knows if any stimulus package will truly do this.
2. We are in a deflation. This is clear cut to Floydian logic, and the deflationary cycle must complete itself, despite our intervention.
3. The housing market will bottom out and recover. Will it? When?
4. A depression is a real possibility. During the great depression the Gross National Product fell 46% in four years.
5. U.S. Sovereign Risk is zero. What happens if the USD loses it status as the most credit worthy asset in the world? The idea that the U.S. could fail would be ridiculous just a few years ago, but fear that the United States could fail to repay its debts does not seem so crazy today.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Deflation Must Occur
Yesterday was the death rattle. We saw up and downturn, and the struggle around key support and resistance lines. We were able to take entry to the put, and some day traded it, and our call remains an open signal. Study our Dow projections carefully again, as we are on a precipice. We'll climb out short term but the market is flat lining.
We think the market is about to trick us. After classic and massive oversold conditions, and over-extension, it is likely to have enough upside to help chartists and citizens believe the worst may be over.
We suspect, however, that whatever upside we see will be fleeting, and that we will all participate in a bear market rally.
What is happening is simple: we have experienced the greatest credit bubble of all time, and we have been driving Hummers and wiping our butts with ultrasoft Charmin toliet paper, bleached white, that is made from virgin forests. Some of us have three or four cars.
Deflation will NOT be beat by our government, by Bernanke, or by Obama dollars. In mid 2007 Paulson, the slimy trader that was our Treasury Secretary, said "the economy is the strongest I have ever seen it,"while Bush said " there is not a recession, or deflation, and our economy is stronger than it has ever been."
Oops.
Deflation must occur, and no amount of government intervention will change it. Any rally we see over the next few days/weeks/months.....be prepared that it may not be lasting.
Trader DS sent a video to our offices. George Soros, who he refers to below, is a brilliant and creative investor, one of the best of all time.
"I was digging around on the internet tonight and found this transcript and video of a 30 minute interview with George Soros on October 8th, 2008. It really reminded me of you and your teachings of the market. I thought I would shoot it to you to check out."
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
We think the market is about to trick us. After classic and massive oversold conditions, and over-extension, it is likely to have enough upside to help chartists and citizens believe the worst may be over.
We suspect, however, that whatever upside we see will be fleeting, and that we will all participate in a bear market rally.
What is happening is simple: we have experienced the greatest credit bubble of all time, and we have been driving Hummers and wiping our butts with ultrasoft Charmin toliet paper, bleached white, that is made from virgin forests. Some of us have three or four cars.
Deflation will NOT be beat by our government, by Bernanke, or by Obama dollars. In mid 2007 Paulson, the slimy trader that was our Treasury Secretary, said "the economy is the strongest I have ever seen it,"while Bush said " there is not a recession, or deflation, and our economy is stronger than it has ever been."
Oops.
Deflation must occur, and no amount of government intervention will change it. Any rally we see over the next few days/weeks/months.....be prepared that it may not be lasting.
Trader DS sent a video to our offices. George Soros, who he refers to below, is a brilliant and creative investor, one of the best of all time.
"I was digging around on the internet tonight and found this transcript and video of a 30 minute interview with George Soros on October 8th, 2008. It really reminded me of you and your teachings of the market. I thought I would shoot it to you to check out."
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html
Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:
http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
We Are Fearful as a World
The best description for what occurred yesterday in our stock market, and to our world, is summed up well by trader MP in his email to me yesterday:
"Honestly Floyd...
I've been a subscriber for about 9 months now...When I started we were in the 12,000's...now we are in the 6,000's...this is NUTS!!!
I know you must be surprised as well because my old emails indicate that you never thought we would be this low...
I mean seriously...when is this thing going to stop?
I heard this morning that if people are going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the DOW to hit 6,000 then they might miss the biggest pop we've seen in a long time...
But then again...I heard back in October that we were heading for 5,000!!!
I don't know what to think my friend...I'm kicking myself that I bought Exxon, Chevron and Alcoa on Friday because I had a feeling that they would keep going down...But how are we supposed to know?
And when we hit S2 this morning, I made my FIRST purchase on the 370 calls at 3.40....but I have a feeling that was a mistake as well...
I guess this is my big question...we've dropped so far so quickly....are we really looking at 5-10 years just to get back to where we were like most people are saying?
Christine and I HAD 50K sitting in a college fund for the girls that is now worth about 25K - can I do anything about it? As a young couple, what do you recommend in a time like this? Conservatively trade the OEX, buy blue Chip Stocks like Chevron, Exxon etc...What else can we do? "
Trader MP is scared, rightfully. He later wrote yesterday to apologize for his email, that he knew was fearful:)
So, first the facts. By 2 p.m. the market went to a theoretical Dow low of 6760. New historical bottoms. AIG, the slime, need more money, and off we are to give it to them, as really they are so integrated in our financial system we "have no choice." And Rush Limbaugh, our New Republican leader, "wants Obama to fail."
Sigh.
March is historically strong early in the month. But, the GDP declined at an annual rate of 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008, showing the steepest drop off since the depths of the 1982 recession, and signaling a potentially longer term return to any strengths. The first quarter looks awful, and companies are now reducing dividends, allowing companies that don't to actually be outperforming those that do. And AIG's government intervention again pushed the market to the lows we were going to suggest would occur AFTER a run up.
The U.S. has also been hurt by the synchronized nature of the global downturn, with exports now declining at a 24% annual rate.
Family values may be stronger as we lose our USD as a strength, and perhaps lose our SuperPower Nation ranking. All of this could be part of the shift that is taking place.
And, a lesson on money from our long term subscriber BD that I find fascinating.
"Floyd, the story you are about to read is, of course, fiction. But if you found it to be disturbingly close to the truth and would like to know who Fabian was in real life, a good starting point is a study on the activities of the English goldsmiths in the 16th & 17th centuries. I'll send the conclusion later.
The Beginning…
Fabian was excited as he once more rehearsed his speech for the crowd certain to turn up tomorrow. He had always wanted prestige and power and now his dreams were going to come true.
He was a craftsman working with silver and gold, making jewelry and ornaments, but he became dissatisfied with working for a living. He needed excitement, a challenge, and now his plan was ready to begin.
For generations the people used the barter system. A man supported his own family by providing all their needs or else he specialized in a particular trade. Whatever surpluses he might have from his own production, he exchanged or swapped for the surplus of others.
Market day was always noisy and dusty, yet people looked forward to the shouting and waving, and especially the companionship. It used to be a happy place, but now there were too many people, too much arguing. There was no time for chatting - a better system was needed.
Generally, the people had been happy, and enjoyed the fruits of their work.
This was the Government’s one and only purpose…
In each community a simple Government had been formed to make sure that each person’s freedoms and rights were protected and that no man was forced to do anything against his will by any other man, or any group of men.
This was the Government’s one and only purpose and each Governor was voluntarily supported by the local community who elected him.
However, market day was the one problem they could not solve. Was a knife worth one or two baskets of corn? Was a cow worth more than a wagon … and so on. No one could think of a better system.
Fabian had advertised, “I have the solution to our bartering problems, and I invite everyone to a public meeting tomorrow.”
The next day there was a great assembly in the town square and Fabian explained all about the new system which he called “money.” It sounded good. “How are we to start?” the people asked.
“The gold which I fashion into ornaments and jewelry is an excellent metal. It does not tarnish or rust, and will last a long time. I will make some gold into coins and we shall call each coin a dollar.”
He explained how values would work, and that “money” would be really a medium for exchange - a much better system than bartering.
One of the Governors questioned, “Some people can dig gold and make coins for themselves,” he said, “This would be most unfair”.
Fabian was ready with the answer. “Only those coins approved by the Government can be used, and these will have special markings stamped on them.” This seemed reasonable and it was proposed that each man be given an equal number. “But I deserve the most,” said the candle-maker. “Everyone uses my candles.” “No”, said the farmer, “without food there is no life, surely we should get the most.” And so the bickering continued.
Fabian let them argue for a while and finally he said, “Since none of you can agree, I suggest you obtain the number you require from me. There will be no limit, except for your ability to repay. The more you obtain, the more you must repay in one year’s time. “And what will you receive?” the people asked.
“Since I am providing a service, that is, the money supply, I am entitled to payment for my work. Let us say that for every 100 pieces you obtain, you repay me 105 for every year that you owe the debt. The 5 will be my charge, and I shall call this charge interest.”
There seemed to be no other way, and besides, 5% seemed little enough charge. “Come back next Friday and we will begin.”
Fabian wasted no time. He made coins day and night, and at the end of the week he was ready. The people were queued up at his shop, and after the coins were inspected and approved by the Governors the system commenced. Some borrowed only a few and they went off to try the new system.
They found money to be marvelous, and they soon valued everything in gold coins or dollars. The value they placed on everything was called a “price,” and the price mainly depended on the amount of work required to produce it. If it took a lot of work the price was high, but if it was produced with little effort it was quite inexpensive.
In one town lived Alan, who was the only watchmaker. His prices were high because the customers were willing to pay just to own one of his watches.
Then another man began making watches and offered them at a lower price in order to get sales. Alan was forced to lower his prices, and in no time at all prices came down, so that both men were striving to give the best quality at the lowest price. This was genuine free competition.
It was the same with builders, transport operators, accountants, farmers, in fact, in every endeavor. The customers always chose what they felt was the best deal - they had freedom of choice. There was no artificial protection such as licenses or tariffs to prevent other people from going into business. The standard of living rose, and before long the people wondered how they had ever done without money.
At the end of the year, Fabian left his shop and visited all the people who owed him money. Some had more than they borrowed, but this meant that others had less, since there were only a certain number of coins issued in the first place. Those who had more than they borrowed paid back each 100 plus the extra 5, but still had to borrow again to carry on.
The others discovered for the first time that they had a debt. Before he would lend them more money, Fabian took a mortgage over some of their assets, and everyone went away once more to try and get those extra 5 coins which always seemed so hard to find.
No one realized that as a whole, the country could never get out of debt until all the coins were repaid, but even then, there were those extra 5 on each 100 which had never been lent out at all. No one but Fabian could see that it was impossible to pay the interest - the extra money had never been issued, therefore someone had to miss out.
It was true that Fabian spent some coins, but he couldn’t possibly spend anything like 5% of the total economy on himself. There were thousands of people and Fabian was only one.
Besides, he was still a goldsmith making a comfortable living.
At the back of his shop Fabian had a strongroom and people found it convenient to leave some of their coins with him for safekeeping. He charged a small fee depending on the amount of money, and the time it was left with him. He would give the owner receipts for the deposit.
When a person went shopping, he did not normally carry a lot of gold coins. He would give the shopkeeper one of the receipts to the value of the goods he wanted to buy.
Shopkeepers recognized the receipt as being genuine and accepted it with the idea of taking it to Fabian and collecting the appropriate amount in coins. The receipts passed from hand to hand instead of the gold itself being transferred. The people had great faith in the receipts - they accepted them as being as good as coins.
Before long, Fabian noticed that it was quite unusual for anyone to actually call for their gold coins.
He thought to himself, “Here I am in possession of all this gold and I am still a hard working craftsman. It doesn’t make sense. Why, there are dozens of people who would be glad to pay me interest for the use of this gold which is lying here and rarely called for.
It is true, the gold is not mine - but it is in my possession, which is all that matters. I hardly need to make any coins at all, I can use some of the coins stored in the vault.”
At first he was very cautious, only loaning a few at a time, and then only on tremendous security. But gradually he became bolder, and larger amounts were loaned.
One day, a large loan was requested. Fabian suggested, “Instead of carrying all these coins we can make a deposit in your name, and then I shall give you several receipts to the value of the coins.” The borrower agreed, and off he went with a bunch of receipts. He had obtained a loan, yet the gold remained in the strong-room. After the client left, Fabian smiled. He could have his cake and eat it too. He could “lend” gold and still keep it in his possession.
Friends, strangers and even enemies needed funds to carry out their businesses - and so long as they could produce security, they could borrow as much as they needed. By simply writing out receipts Fabian was able to “lend” money to several times the value of gold in his strong-room, and he was not even the owner of it. Everything was safe so long as the real owners didn’t call for their gold and the confidence of the people was maintained.
He kept a book showing the debits and credits for each person. The lending business was proving to be very lucrative indeed.
His social standing in the community was increasing almost as fast as his wealth. He was becoming a man of importance, he commanded respect. In matters of finance, his very word was like a sacred pronouncement.
To be continued…
About the author:
This story was written by Larry Hannigan in 1971 – The sole purpose is to explain the simple maths of reality and the current Banking System – that is - 100 plus NOTHING does NOT equal 105 – and that charging interest on something that is created out of nothing, makes it impossible to repay, giving great power to those who do create money out of nothing - ie the Banks
And, from trader JK, what he thinks is an Abraham Lincoln quote:
"The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. The banking powers are more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. They denounce as public enemies all who question their methods or throw light upon their crimes. I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the bankers in the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe."
Abraham Lincoln
________________________________
The answer to MP, and in general, is that the the stock market historically has predicted the economy. Anyone remember when Priceline.com was at a higher value than all the U.S. Airlines combined, in the dot com bubble? How quickly we forget?
The Dow is now halved, and we are fearful as a world. The stock market is now becoming, I think, a barometer of how effective policy makers are dealing with the credit crisis. If the stock market can find optimism, and any upside, we believe it will proactively lead "faith." Most Americans do not even understand what the stock market IS, but they do know when it goes UP or DOWN. The news tells us.
If the market is not able to control itself, our concerns will mount, as it leads to further "cutting back", less confidence, and thoughts of the Great Depression.
Much of our issue is again the bi-partisan babbles that take place now, with "fights" on what should be done, and Obama's goal of unity as a nation led by Rush Limbaugh helping create even more of a split.
My answer: if we cannot "find a bottom" we will soon create a massive worldwide Depression. I'm saddened daily to read the lack of understanding by our own people on what has occurred, and what now really must be done. Those that believe we should "let free enterprise" correct, without intervention, simply have no understanding how banking credit runs our world.
Traders were only able to enter on the March310P yesterday if buying above prior day close. The low was 4.30, and the position rose to highs of 6.30.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Floydian Therapy:
Worry does not exist. We create the emotion, create the body reaction (long and short term) and argue with ourselves on what there is to worry about. If I throw a rock at you and you see it, your perception will be altered, and your fear and dread will rise. This will manifest in adrenalin rushes.
But it is not truly real, as one could see the rock coming and "not care" (it is possible) and have no fear, only calm.
We are thusly what we decide and choose to "be, see, or experience."
The only indisputable fact is that there is no fact, only our definition that there is such a thing. A rock is NOT necessarily hard.
As an example, to a religious person it is indisputable that there is a God. But there is no fact of this, only interpretation of fact. There is no physical proof of a higher being, only our desire that there be one, or our interpretation of doctrines and examples.
Religious people will argue, and are wrong. It is unprovable. Atheists and non religious people will argue factually or in anger, and are also wrong. They do NOT know there is no God, they choose to believe that there is not one, and that no fact can be proven that there is.
This means both are wrong. So, is there a God, or are we God? Or is there no God. Or, is there only one God. This "false fact" thinking is the stuff of persecution and wars. Assuming there is a God, I'm sure she's smiling at us as we struggle with our training wheels.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
"Honestly Floyd...
I've been a subscriber for about 9 months now...When I started we were in the 12,000's...now we are in the 6,000's...this is NUTS!!!
I know you must be surprised as well because my old emails indicate that you never thought we would be this low...
I mean seriously...when is this thing going to stop?
I heard this morning that if people are going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the DOW to hit 6,000 then they might miss the biggest pop we've seen in a long time...
But then again...I heard back in October that we were heading for 5,000!!!
I don't know what to think my friend...I'm kicking myself that I bought Exxon, Chevron and Alcoa on Friday because I had a feeling that they would keep going down...But how are we supposed to know?
And when we hit S2 this morning, I made my FIRST purchase on the 370 calls at 3.40....but I have a feeling that was a mistake as well...
I guess this is my big question...we've dropped so far so quickly....are we really looking at 5-10 years just to get back to where we were like most people are saying?
Christine and I HAD 50K sitting in a college fund for the girls that is now worth about 25K - can I do anything about it? As a young couple, what do you recommend in a time like this? Conservatively trade the OEX, buy blue Chip Stocks like Chevron, Exxon etc...What else can we do? "
Trader MP is scared, rightfully. He later wrote yesterday to apologize for his email, that he knew was fearful:)
So, first the facts. By 2 p.m. the market went to a theoretical Dow low of 6760. New historical bottoms. AIG, the slime, need more money, and off we are to give it to them, as really they are so integrated in our financial system we "have no choice." And Rush Limbaugh, our New Republican leader, "wants Obama to fail."
Sigh.
March is historically strong early in the month. But, the GDP declined at an annual rate of 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008, showing the steepest drop off since the depths of the 1982 recession, and signaling a potentially longer term return to any strengths. The first quarter looks awful, and companies are now reducing dividends, allowing companies that don't to actually be outperforming those that do. And AIG's government intervention again pushed the market to the lows we were going to suggest would occur AFTER a run up.
The U.S. has also been hurt by the synchronized nature of the global downturn, with exports now declining at a 24% annual rate.
Family values may be stronger as we lose our USD as a strength, and perhaps lose our SuperPower Nation ranking. All of this could be part of the shift that is taking place.
And, a lesson on money from our long term subscriber BD that I find fascinating.
"Floyd, the story you are about to read is, of course, fiction. But if you found it to be disturbingly close to the truth and would like to know who Fabian was in real life, a good starting point is a study on the activities of the English goldsmiths in the 16th & 17th centuries. I'll send the conclusion later.
The Beginning…
Fabian was excited as he once more rehearsed his speech for the crowd certain to turn up tomorrow. He had always wanted prestige and power and now his dreams were going to come true.
He was a craftsman working with silver and gold, making jewelry and ornaments, but he became dissatisfied with working for a living. He needed excitement, a challenge, and now his plan was ready to begin.
For generations the people used the barter system. A man supported his own family by providing all their needs or else he specialized in a particular trade. Whatever surpluses he might have from his own production, he exchanged or swapped for the surplus of others.
Market day was always noisy and dusty, yet people looked forward to the shouting and waving, and especially the companionship. It used to be a happy place, but now there were too many people, too much arguing. There was no time for chatting - a better system was needed.
Generally, the people had been happy, and enjoyed the fruits of their work.
This was the Government’s one and only purpose…
In each community a simple Government had been formed to make sure that each person’s freedoms and rights were protected and that no man was forced to do anything against his will by any other man, or any group of men.
This was the Government’s one and only purpose and each Governor was voluntarily supported by the local community who elected him.
However, market day was the one problem they could not solve. Was a knife worth one or two baskets of corn? Was a cow worth more than a wagon … and so on. No one could think of a better system.
Fabian had advertised, “I have the solution to our bartering problems, and I invite everyone to a public meeting tomorrow.”
The next day there was a great assembly in the town square and Fabian explained all about the new system which he called “money.” It sounded good. “How are we to start?” the people asked.
“The gold which I fashion into ornaments and jewelry is an excellent metal. It does not tarnish or rust, and will last a long time. I will make some gold into coins and we shall call each coin a dollar.”
He explained how values would work, and that “money” would be really a medium for exchange - a much better system than bartering.
One of the Governors questioned, “Some people can dig gold and make coins for themselves,” he said, “This would be most unfair”.
Fabian was ready with the answer. “Only those coins approved by the Government can be used, and these will have special markings stamped on them.” This seemed reasonable and it was proposed that each man be given an equal number. “But I deserve the most,” said the candle-maker. “Everyone uses my candles.” “No”, said the farmer, “without food there is no life, surely we should get the most.” And so the bickering continued.
Fabian let them argue for a while and finally he said, “Since none of you can agree, I suggest you obtain the number you require from me. There will be no limit, except for your ability to repay. The more you obtain, the more you must repay in one year’s time. “And what will you receive?” the people asked.
“Since I am providing a service, that is, the money supply, I am entitled to payment for my work. Let us say that for every 100 pieces you obtain, you repay me 105 for every year that you owe the debt. The 5 will be my charge, and I shall call this charge interest.”
There seemed to be no other way, and besides, 5% seemed little enough charge. “Come back next Friday and we will begin.”
Fabian wasted no time. He made coins day and night, and at the end of the week he was ready. The people were queued up at his shop, and after the coins were inspected and approved by the Governors the system commenced. Some borrowed only a few and they went off to try the new system.
They found money to be marvelous, and they soon valued everything in gold coins or dollars. The value they placed on everything was called a “price,” and the price mainly depended on the amount of work required to produce it. If it took a lot of work the price was high, but if it was produced with little effort it was quite inexpensive.
In one town lived Alan, who was the only watchmaker. His prices were high because the customers were willing to pay just to own one of his watches.
Then another man began making watches and offered them at a lower price in order to get sales. Alan was forced to lower his prices, and in no time at all prices came down, so that both men were striving to give the best quality at the lowest price. This was genuine free competition.
It was the same with builders, transport operators, accountants, farmers, in fact, in every endeavor. The customers always chose what they felt was the best deal - they had freedom of choice. There was no artificial protection such as licenses or tariffs to prevent other people from going into business. The standard of living rose, and before long the people wondered how they had ever done without money.
At the end of the year, Fabian left his shop and visited all the people who owed him money. Some had more than they borrowed, but this meant that others had less, since there were only a certain number of coins issued in the first place. Those who had more than they borrowed paid back each 100 plus the extra 5, but still had to borrow again to carry on.
The others discovered for the first time that they had a debt. Before he would lend them more money, Fabian took a mortgage over some of their assets, and everyone went away once more to try and get those extra 5 coins which always seemed so hard to find.
No one realized that as a whole, the country could never get out of debt until all the coins were repaid, but even then, there were those extra 5 on each 100 which had never been lent out at all. No one but Fabian could see that it was impossible to pay the interest - the extra money had never been issued, therefore someone had to miss out.
It was true that Fabian spent some coins, but he couldn’t possibly spend anything like 5% of the total economy on himself. There were thousands of people and Fabian was only one.
Besides, he was still a goldsmith making a comfortable living.
At the back of his shop Fabian had a strongroom and people found it convenient to leave some of their coins with him for safekeeping. He charged a small fee depending on the amount of money, and the time it was left with him. He would give the owner receipts for the deposit.
When a person went shopping, he did not normally carry a lot of gold coins. He would give the shopkeeper one of the receipts to the value of the goods he wanted to buy.
Shopkeepers recognized the receipt as being genuine and accepted it with the idea of taking it to Fabian and collecting the appropriate amount in coins. The receipts passed from hand to hand instead of the gold itself being transferred. The people had great faith in the receipts - they accepted them as being as good as coins.
Before long, Fabian noticed that it was quite unusual for anyone to actually call for their gold coins.
He thought to himself, “Here I am in possession of all this gold and I am still a hard working craftsman. It doesn’t make sense. Why, there are dozens of people who would be glad to pay me interest for the use of this gold which is lying here and rarely called for.
It is true, the gold is not mine - but it is in my possession, which is all that matters. I hardly need to make any coins at all, I can use some of the coins stored in the vault.”
At first he was very cautious, only loaning a few at a time, and then only on tremendous security. But gradually he became bolder, and larger amounts were loaned.
One day, a large loan was requested. Fabian suggested, “Instead of carrying all these coins we can make a deposit in your name, and then I shall give you several receipts to the value of the coins.” The borrower agreed, and off he went with a bunch of receipts. He had obtained a loan, yet the gold remained in the strong-room. After the client left, Fabian smiled. He could have his cake and eat it too. He could “lend” gold and still keep it in his possession.
Friends, strangers and even enemies needed funds to carry out their businesses - and so long as they could produce security, they could borrow as much as they needed. By simply writing out receipts Fabian was able to “lend” money to several times the value of gold in his strong-room, and he was not even the owner of it. Everything was safe so long as the real owners didn’t call for their gold and the confidence of the people was maintained.
He kept a book showing the debits and credits for each person. The lending business was proving to be very lucrative indeed.
His social standing in the community was increasing almost as fast as his wealth. He was becoming a man of importance, he commanded respect. In matters of finance, his very word was like a sacred pronouncement.
To be continued…
About the author:
This story was written by Larry Hannigan in 1971 – The sole purpose is to explain the simple maths of reality and the current Banking System – that is - 100 plus NOTHING does NOT equal 105 – and that charging interest on something that is created out of nothing, makes it impossible to repay, giving great power to those who do create money out of nothing - ie the Banks
And, from trader JK, what he thinks is an Abraham Lincoln quote:
"The money powers prey upon the nation in times of peace and conspire against it in times of adversity. The banking powers are more despotic than a monarchy, more insolent than autocracy, more selfish than bureaucracy. They denounce as public enemies all who question their methods or throw light upon their crimes. I have two great enemies, the Southern Army in front of me and the bankers in the rear. Of the two, the one at my rear is my greatest foe."
Abraham Lincoln
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The answer to MP, and in general, is that the the stock market historically has predicted the economy. Anyone remember when Priceline.com was at a higher value than all the U.S. Airlines combined, in the dot com bubble? How quickly we forget?
The Dow is now halved, and we are fearful as a world. The stock market is now becoming, I think, a barometer of how effective policy makers are dealing with the credit crisis. If the stock market can find optimism, and any upside, we believe it will proactively lead "faith." Most Americans do not even understand what the stock market IS, but they do know when it goes UP or DOWN. The news tells us.
If the market is not able to control itself, our concerns will mount, as it leads to further "cutting back", less confidence, and thoughts of the Great Depression.
Much of our issue is again the bi-partisan babbles that take place now, with "fights" on what should be done, and Obama's goal of unity as a nation led by Rush Limbaugh helping create even more of a split.
My answer: if we cannot "find a bottom" we will soon create a massive worldwide Depression. I'm saddened daily to read the lack of understanding by our own people on what has occurred, and what now really must be done. Those that believe we should "let free enterprise" correct, without intervention, simply have no understanding how banking credit runs our world.
Traders were only able to enter on the March310P yesterday if buying above prior day close. The low was 4.30, and the position rose to highs of 6.30.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Floydian Therapy:
Worry does not exist. We create the emotion, create the body reaction (long and short term) and argue with ourselves on what there is to worry about. If I throw a rock at you and you see it, your perception will be altered, and your fear and dread will rise. This will manifest in adrenalin rushes.
But it is not truly real, as one could see the rock coming and "not care" (it is possible) and have no fear, only calm.
We are thusly what we decide and choose to "be, see, or experience."
The only indisputable fact is that there is no fact, only our definition that there is such a thing. A rock is NOT necessarily hard.
As an example, to a religious person it is indisputable that there is a God. But there is no fact of this, only interpretation of fact. There is no physical proof of a higher being, only our desire that there be one, or our interpretation of doctrines and examples.
Religious people will argue, and are wrong. It is unprovable. Atheists and non religious people will argue factually or in anger, and are also wrong. They do NOT know there is no God, they choose to believe that there is not one, and that no fact can be proven that there is.
This means both are wrong. So, is there a God, or are we God? Or is there no God. Or, is there only one God. This "false fact" thinking is the stuff of persecution and wars. Assuming there is a God, I'm sure she's smiling at us as we struggle with our training wheels.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, March 2, 2009
Our Stock Market is Changing
The first trading day in March the Dow was up 9 of the last 13. But, the world is coming to an end:
-Since 1900 there have been four global bear markets in which stocks have fallen by at least 40%, adjusted for inflation. Two have occurred in the past 9 years.
This now proves that equities are truly risky over the long term, and that only the astute win.
It also brings a bit of reality to the former Bushian "the economy is sound, and we are not in a recession". Smart people were watching and we knew. What we did not know was just how pervasive the greed was, and how large the house of cards was.
Some astute economists (Dimson/London Business School the lead) have studied on 17 markets back to 1900, and they estimate we may have to wait nine more years before the Dow average, including dividends, has a 50% chance of hitting its 2007 highs. These same analysts can prove that "after the bad times come good times" with some astounding accuracy.
This means: our stock market is changing. And will more. We need to become even more astute in our OEX short term trading, a way to trade any type of condition.
Calls were available for tight day trading Friday on the market tumbles back to support lines, and the climb up. These trades, however, were only available for those online and watching, the rest of us own the signal, and instructions are below. We'll list a put again as a tight day trade, but follow futures carefully.
-Since 1900 there have been four global bear markets in which stocks have fallen by at least 40%, adjusted for inflation. Two have occurred in the past 9 years.
This now proves that equities are truly risky over the long term, and that only the astute win.
It also brings a bit of reality to the former Bushian "the economy is sound, and we are not in a recession". Smart people were watching and we knew. What we did not know was just how pervasive the greed was, and how large the house of cards was.
Some astute economists (Dimson/London Business School the lead) have studied on 17 markets back to 1900, and they estimate we may have to wait nine more years before the Dow average, including dividends, has a 50% chance of hitting its 2007 highs. These same analysts can prove that "after the bad times come good times" with some astounding accuracy.
This means: our stock market is changing. And will more. We need to become even more astute in our OEX short term trading, a way to trade any type of condition.
Calls were available for tight day trading Friday on the market tumbles back to support lines, and the climb up. These trades, however, were only available for those online and watching, the rest of us own the signal, and instructions are below. We'll list a put again as a tight day trade, but follow futures carefully.
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