Thursday, April 30, 2009

New Pivot Point Calculator

NEWS: On the website today we will have a NEW pivot point calculator in Excell format, in addition to our "online calculator."

This pivot point calculates a "more extended s3/r3 calculation" than the "online calculator" we offer in the password protected areas. Traders are successful these days most by re-calculating the OEX and Dow both midday to see support/resistance lines within the volatility. Please make use of this great new tool.

As expected our buy on the May400C the day prior was smart and this option sold to highs of 15.90 before 2.00 p.m. New traders were also able to enter this trade as low as 12.13, not far a buy "up" from 10.90 close, and also have the capability of selling several times for $2.00 and up per contract profits. And, as the market went right to our 8250 tops put traders took inventory in the May400P for 7.90 area. We're calling these past few weeks to a T, and hope to continue an impeccable win ratio. We closed the day yesterday with top profits to the call, and a first buy to the put. We believe the market hit resistance lines yesterday that would surprise us if bulls can "continue past" without a consolidation.

We are clearly trying to show reference within alerts this week to the historical moves of our Dow projections, and how each day we come right within bounds of the highs and lows, and it's part of how we are trading successfully.

Market downturn we think likely, over time or in an hour (the way this market moves) will hold at 7837 area, pending economic babbles or a pandemic.

Study every section of this alert in detail. It's got much more information in it, and more detail. Floyd is working on new videos showing our trades also.

By day end the market fell and put traders were also able to profit for day traders for some nice swing trade money, and we still hold .

The market drop at 3:45 p.m. showed a hesitancy in the bull armor.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Day Traders Must Recalculate

Many traders with OEX Options are not familiar with our other service, www.bluechipoptions.com

A recent example of how we trade is: On 4/21 we took inventory in DJXEB May 80.00 Call, a then in the money call available at 2.00. We held this until 4/24, and sold it at 2.80.

The DJX, or the Dow itself, moves in almost direct correlation to the OEX and our Blue Chip service lists the tools for the experienced trader to pick their own option around our recommendations of support and resistance lines.

At OEX Options our alerts are so complete you have EVERY tool to analyze the market and can begin to follow how the other indices also track (DJX and SPX) and can "watch the entire market breathe" around the indices that drive it.

Traders that owned the May 440P were profitable to 15.50. Many traders took inventory on this the day prior while the upside gap was occurring. We'll still hold it as an open signal for potential market and still consider it a new buy at the right price.

Yesterday we saw classic flat lining again. If day trading it is imperative you recalculate both the Dow and OEX no later than 12 noon to find the "closer" moves for S1, R1, et al in a flat lining market that keeps being propped up.

The FOMC babbles today at 2.15 p.m. Whipsaw often occurs around the FED announcement, with typical euphoria on any good news that Bernanke is able to make out of his statement, and on any bad news as it is analyzed.

We also continue to see a potential run at an upside to our Dow projections again, before consolidation, but the market flat lining has us baffled, as the market does not respond to good news.

Swine Flu pandemic the talking heads say is affecting the market, and we've learned that BOA and C need more cash for safety.

Today we'll have a two way trade potential, noting the high risk to the straddle.

----------------------------

Floydian Therapy:

❑ If you are really doing something you don’t want, but don’t know it, only your awareness of what you are doing (the witness) can help you discover the belief you have that isn’t serving you.

❑ When you really focus your mind you can focus on what you want, what you want to move towards, and create, OR on what you don’t want, which is when you are afraid, worried, stressed, or confused.

❑ Right now think of “not an elephant”. To do so you have to make a picture of an elephant.

❑ Any time you have a bad feeling, you are focusing on what you don’t want.

You can’t have a bad feeling without focusing on what you don’t want. You must notice what you focusing on.

❑ How many negative words do you use? “Not, bad, no, don’t, avoid”...you are obviously thinking about what you don’t want. Notice your internal pictures and thoughts.

❑ The hardest job is reversing what you have let yourself become. At first you are focusing on what you don’t want (unconscious incompetence), and you don’t even know you’re doing it. Then you’re doing it, and you’re aware that you are doing it (conscious incompetence), but aren’t doing anything about it, and then, you’re doing it (conscious competence), and really making progress, but you really have to work at it...and then, you’re finally NOTICING and instantly changing your focus on what you want, and it’s natural and automatic (unconscious competence).

If you are interested in learning more about Floydian Therapy:

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

What is the "Count" you Speak of in the Daily Alert

The market hit highs last Friday that appear to be strong resistance, and futures were very negative pre market, only to open just a bit down, and have most of the day struggle around the pivot.

The Swine Flu epidemic was the fear trigger for yesterday's market, but a very difficult market to trade. Traders were profitable in the May 380 Put (1.00 profits) and the May 400Put for $2.00 to 3.50 and up contracts in tight day trading.

No buys to the call were made with futures over 100 points down.

This was NOT a volatile day, making trading "flat lining" hard to do.

_______________

"What is the count you speak of in the Daily alert?"

Many subscribers in Level 2 service as us what we mean by "count" and the numbers after it. In our Level 3 service we outline how we calculate this count. Simply put, Floyd utilizes a bell curve analysis for overbought (put) and oversold (call) conditions. With 0 as having no bias as the market climbs over a period of days or hours we calculate "norms" based on using the High/Low/Open/Close of a high volume index option and a series of calculations to define the "bias".
If the "count is 4 to the call" this means the bias is to the call, to a "count" of 4. 10 is the highest "count" to the call, meaning the market has reached highs and is LIKELY to hit resistance lines and falter. The higher a count gets to 10 the most likely reversal will take place".

When the bias is 0 to 2, to put or call, it's an "undefined bias" with few statistical odds to define the longer term bias.

At Level 3 we teach the calculations of how we reach "the count".

Here's a true summary of our banking crisis: (Thanks to MP for reminding me of this)

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

And here's what the IMF is up to. It's important you understand WHO the IMF is, and how they are trying to control the price of gold:

> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124078772568857401.html#mod=article-outset-box

And trader MP wrote again, to discuss our subscriber that quit. His writing is in italics and explains well what I am trying to teach.

From the subscriber that left: "I need to know exactly what to do, what price to pay and when to sell. I can't see that in your service, as you make me think out what I am doing myself."

Let me tell you something brother...I used to think similar to your subscriber and you know what...I realized that thinking like that gets you nowhere but dependent on someone else...I want to KNOW how to trade this freakin' market ON MY OWN!!! Your service is helping me do that! Thank you my friend...Even though I have not made any money yet with your service (ONLY because I broke rules and tried my own stupid things)...when (not if) but WHEN I am able to replace my account I am VERY CONFIDENT that I am going to make some serious money...VERY CONFIDENT!!!

This is because following your service everyday is teaching me how to truly understand and follow rules and I'm most especially learning about myself, my trading tolerance and style...

Now regarding the circle of pain...for the life of me I continue to crave sugar and I continue to procrastinate...I don't want to waste time anymore by putting things off and I don't want to binge eat anymore...the PAIN involved is getting on my nerves...so in order to leave this circle - does it even matter WHY I do these things? Do I even have to know why in order to stop...and WHY are some circles so difficult to get out of? Because these circles are so familiar and we fear the unknown?


Floydian Therapy:

❑ All effective personal growth approaches are really just ways to get you to focus on what you want.

❑ Carry a 3 X 5 card with you for two weeks. Make a mark on your card each time you notice yourself focusing on something you don’t want. When you notice yourself doing this, ask what is you do want. Write it down. Keep track of your notes for two weeks, and learn about yourself.

Knowing what you want vs. doing what you don't want is key. Want does not mean " a new car", want means "who do you want to be?"

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Monday, April 27, 2009

This is a Skill

Friday the market hit highs of 8167, very close to the 8250 top we saw to the market. There is more potential upside to 8326, but make note the count is now 8 and the market is oversold.

The May 400C was profitable to 13.20, for almost a 100% for traders selling final partials, and traders may have taken a first buy to the May 380P at 5.40 during the market run up in the a.m.

We've had such great successes with our recent options, now profitable 10 straight days, and have had the same run of success in our www.bluechipoptions.com site.

Recently we saw calls on Citi rise 48% and calls on Amazon just hit 35% increases, in less than 7 day holds. Our recent investment in a stock that is severely undervalued is up 40% from it's low, and 10% from our recent "second buy" suggestion.

We see market tops shortly, and a downside consolidation.

Floydian Soapbox: Recently a new subscriber left us, and when asked, said "I need to know exactly what to do, what price to pay and when to sell. I can't see that in your service, as you make me think out what I am doing myself".

I wish this guy luck, but it got me thinking: this is not easy stuff. This is a skill that can return you 20% or more a day, and provide consistent full time income if prudently invested and studied. It takes study, and I'm here to help you study.

Use this alert. It's the most comprehensive pre market summary on the market and is used by professional traders simply for the "read of the market".

-------------

Floydian Therapy:

Here's the last section of our Circle of Pain article, which we hope has been helpful to you.

The full article is available at: http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf

We all live in pain. We often choose to create much of this pain. We also spend much of our lives doing what we do not want, and then complain, overeat, get divorced, or drink to excess because we are unhappy, doing what we do not want.

To exit a circle of pain one must know that one is in a circle and that the circle is insidious and will not end without a planned exit. You must choose to leave the circle, to find the events you will say “no” to, or you must come to accept the circles you choose.

There are consequences to each decision. Floydian Therapy will walk you through the process.

You are what you decide.

If interested in learning about our transpersonal life coach counseling, Floydian Therapy, contact us at floydiantherapy@gmail.com

Disclaimer: All examples in this article are meant for educational purposes only. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead is purely coincidental. If you think this is “you,” it probably is.

Friday, April 24, 2009

Taking Profits with the Skill of a Surgeon

The word is dire. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has very clearly identified that we are in a recession equal to our Great Depression, and that it will get worse before better.

I trust this commentary. They are seeing the world picture, and see what nations are buying gold. While gold dipped in recent months the IMF was reporting nations worldwide buying more of gold, while retail demand slipped.

Study this article

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124040469973043357.html

George Soros, the billionaire investor, also believes a tripling of nationalized cash infusion will have to take place, world wide, and that our alternatives of allowing the free market to play out are far from the reality of empty freighters waiting in China, and our automobile companies bankrupting.

For 10 years we have built our wealth entirely in "numbers and paper" via the financial sector, with little regulation, and no understanding world wide of what we were "doing".

Thusly, when we are profitable 8 times straight in recent trades, and all profits have exceeded 20% (most averaging 35%) we emphasize to you that in the current market environment I can't think of any investor who would not be happy with 20% returns. I see this as almost impossible in the stock market, and see index option trading as a skill that is much like a surgeon's, taking facts, intuition, and the control of nerves.
___

Two way profits again yesterday, outlined in detail in our Open and New signals. We're hitting on all cylinders. Day traders have reported 13 to 15 profitable trades in the past 9 market days.


Floydian Therapy:

The Circle of Pain continued....

Full article at: http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf


Breaking out of a circle requires first identifying that one is in one.

Much like an addict, it is coming to terms with the powerlessness you have over the situation, and how the circle of pain becomes something you simply now automatically join, and cannot seem to get out of.

Imagine a giant Ferris wheel. You are not strapped in, and have no partner.
You have given your ticket and the ride has begun. The announcer says “this ride will go fast, or slow, and you will only be allowed off for bathroom and food breaks, when we tell you.”

“Here goes!”

That is the circle of pain.

SIX STEPS TO BREAKING A PATTERN

1. Identify the issue. This is key, and sounds simple, but is the hardest step.

You must clearly write down the complete issue you, and the partners in your
circle of pain, deal with.

2. Who in the circle of pain wants it to continue? There is likely someone that benefits from the pain you are in, although they would not see it that way.

What needs to change to make this person or people in the drama either not
want it to continue, or be forced to work to your rules as you exit the circle?

3. Where are the exit points? Remember, there are entry points to the circle of pain, and it is these same entry points that can allow your exit. What are they?

Ex: The family that constantly enables their children with money could put a
“trustee” in charge of the money, so that the Father did not control, and the
adult children had to see a “trustee” to deal with what they got for free.

4. Do you down deep enjoy the drama and not want the pain to end? You must

be very honest here, as many participants in “bad drama” seem to be “driven”
to stay in the situation as they are “lost” without the “game of the circle.” You
must find out if you are one of these people.

5. Find the quadrant or sector that you define will lead the exit. Tell the

other participants in the circle that you intend to do so, and how. There is
ALWAYS more than one person in a circle of pain.

6. Form the plan and exit the quadrant. Study the responses, both your own, and the other members of the circle, and write down to yourself what is taking place and what you will do differently.

If you are interested in learning more about Floydian Therapy:

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Pivot Point Struggle

Yesterday the market was a classic study. Floyd entered pre market with a best buy price of 10.10 or less on our call, and filled at 10.00. Two hours later I had sold off at 12.70 within two hours.

I recalculated the Dow at opening and used these new support and resistance projections to see what were the short term variables. Under this scenario the Dow hit r3 by 11 a.m., and retreated, to regroup around 2.15 p.m. after it had headed back to the pivot point to the middle of the day. For those working with me in "loving an option" I did all of these projections watching only one option, the May 400 Call, which I've bought and sold profitably several times already, around s/r lines.

We continue to believe the market is poised for another 300 point move, and with more bias to the call. Earnings are showing mixed results, and the mood overall remains optimistic, despite a myriad of opinions and data.

However, watching the pivot point struggle, we may begin to now see whipsaw and we'll make special note within our Dow projections of stopping points.

So, two signals, but the bias to the call. Let's keep our winning streak going.

Thanks for your kind comments, subscribers, on the Circle of Pain article we're sharing this week. It should help you understand the emotions that are part of your day to day trading, and why.



Floydian Therapy:

More on the Circle of Pain. Full article at : http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf

Let’s create a few examples of circles of pain that you may know well.

The Circle of Pain
“I can’t stop picking on my wife, and arguing with her”

You can almost picture how many dramas occur within this circle, from lack of sex, to arguing, to children that are hurt, to a wife that feels abused, and you that feel “not understood.”
There is an anger here that must come up, be “let go of,” or dealt with. It permeates both of your lives.


The Circle of Pain
“When I decide to buy something I go on buying streaks and spend way more money than I should, then I feel regretful, but I go out and buy again. I can’t stop.”

You know this situation. You are the person, or know someone like this. You can’t stop buying things, far more than you need.
You probably do this because you feel empty, and are “filling yourself.” Depression.

The Circle of Pain
“When I trade in the stock market, or options, I always buy at the wrong time, and sell at the worse time, and I lose money all the time. I keep trying, and sometimes I make money and then am invincible and very greedy, only to go back to losing money, way more than I can afford to lose.”

This is many investors, as the average Joe is the culprit the market makers use to control the market, and investing becomes desperation, or addiction. Emotional people trade logically, and logical people trade emotionally. All people, and the market itself, is driven by:
-cause and effect
-fear and greed
-supply and demand
How you react to the variables within your emotions defines your logic in the market.


If you are interested in learning more about Floydian Therapy:

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

We are Truly on a Roll!

We are truly on a roll! After record profits Monday on both open puts, we hit well on the May400C today, reversing the downside, with buys as low as 8.20 and sells as high as 10.30 by 2 p.m.

Traders reported nice 1.50 per contract day trades, and later .70 moves on this option as the market hesitated. The fact that the downside was slight, and tight, and that futures were very "flat" made traders not take entry to the higher risk put.

We are trying to report how the market has moved recently up until the 2 p.m. hour, as we notice we can often day trade profit before this period, leading up to the "3 p.m. run", that with index options runs to 4.15 p.m. EST

The market hit 7972 and lows of 7741 in trading by 2.15 EST, with an almost immediate return to upturn.

Gold gained over the past few days, a sign of uncertainty on the USD, and rising demand for gold in India. The IMF just gave the U.S. the most scathing report one could imagine, that simply tells us we we will be nationalizing and paying off our sins for years, with no choice. George Soros, my idol, made billions shorting the market many times, and he believes the market is not yet healthy, and we have more to "learn" about what has been done.

Earnings reports are muted, but financials are showing that "this might work," and Obama hints brilliantly through Geitner that there may be more money needed to be spent. Floyd believes our government will be spending much more, and that we all will be paying for it and that it's all good......a complete reversal must take place than a financial sector run by scam artists controlling the money of the world, leading even the price of oil, the core resource we're now only beginning to "deal with"

Soros is dead right, as are the bullish that see the upside. We think this upside will come first, and show even more optimism, short term.

We will take a break from our Circle of Pain article today, available in full at: http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf

Subscribers to our Advanced Mentoring or Floydian Therapy services make full use of articles and thinking like this. At OEX Options we are here to teach you the nuances of trading, and of yourself.

We believe stock trading is emotional in index option trading, and can be used to our advantage. Formula or auto broker does not work because the subtleties of the bid/ask and how to "play the other trader" to buy up, or sell down, are a great part of index trading.

When trading index options we are actually trading against others emotions.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Open Puts were Hugely Profitable

Our open puts were hugely profitable. Traders reported up to 74% to 109% gains on both open puts, and all traders were rewarded with a minimum profit of 35 to 47%.

With futures negative yesterday we took no open entry to the call, but see the market potentially bottoming quickly and rebounding on any good earnings. Surprisingly, we're bullish for the end of the week, with no logical reason other than euphoria is building and any good news could spring the market to break former resistance lines. It's still a "good" month for stocks, and we think another surprise at a top is likely.

Remember, the top we speak of is now just a few 100 points above the market bottom of 7750 that hit last October, and sent the world to a tailsspin. So although "up dramatically" we are strong resistance lines.

With the strong market volatility days we are experimenting with a new buy technique for the more risk oriented trader. At opening the trader buys inventory to the signal we recommend, at "market price", meaning paying perhaps much higher than prior day close. The second buy is made at the prior day close, the former "limit buy" we would recommend. Traders average cost and sell for up to 42% by third day, or stop loss.

This appears to work best on highly volatile days, where we see sharp futures declines or up moves in the early market hours.

We'll keep you tuned on this, and begin reporting it as another method in the alert. Here's what we'll say:

"Pay to Market"-Take a first buy at the market opening, and a second buy at the prior day close price, if necessary. Sell for 34 to 42% profits by end of third day hold, or stop loss.

This is a higher risk trade opportunity for markets that show futures defining a strong market bias.

Right now traders we recommend using the pivot point calculator available on the website at least once during the trading day. You can plug in both OEX or DJIA numbers and get a better reading of the support and resistance lines on a highly volatile day.



Floydian Therapy:

The Circle of Pain, continued:

Circles have entry points and exit points, but they also look like circles, so they can appear to have no entry or exit. How does a circle become a circle? Can it be broken?

Circles can be broken, and can be dissected. What is key is to find the issues that surround one joining a circle (of pain, of addiction, of fear) and defining where the entry points were, and where the exit points can be made.

Here’s a scenario of something we read about all of the time with families – of physicians, entrepreneurs, celebrities, politicians, etc...

This is a wealthy family with many possessions, a secure business and, for all outward purposes, a strong and happy family. They have no friends outside of their church, and the parents never stop working; the children never start.

The family has an adult son suffering from drug abuse, arrested time and again for various things and does not have a job, and never had. His arrests have been for abuse, and showing aggressive, drug induced behavior. The daughter works in the family business without rules or real job expectations, coming and going as she likes. Her life is “subsidized” by her parents, and they balance her checkbook. She is married with three children.

The millions of dollars in money spent by the parents has always been on “supporting them,” paying legal bills, paying their rent (on nice homes), buying them things, and generally being generous and offering unconditional love.

This unconditional love, however, is enabling and controlling, breeding anger in the children, and the wife, even though they are supported and always “forgiven” for their behavior.

The father is rightfully upset that the situation never changes, and he is always counted on to “bail them out,” to “support the adult children.” But he never loses “control” by the way he handles this, and by “having control” he at least feels somewhat grounded in an untenable drama.

Sadly, his controlling behavior helps fuel the drama. The wife is fearful the children will never get well, and enables them by giving them money, and constantly forgiving bad behavior.

This picture is clear. They live in a circle of pain that they have created, and that never ends. And, subconsciously, this family may not want to change, as the DRAMA of the circle is what keeps their relationship alive. They don’t know how they would be a family without the circle of pain.

Now relate it to yourself. Do you have a circle of pain? It’s likely that you do.

And it’s just as likely that you do not want to stop, as the drama is what drives your relationships, and becomes your purpose. It’s stupid, and you can change.

In any circle there are entry points, and these same entry points prove there can be a exit point

The second circle defines quadrants, a simple way to “break down a circle” into specific areas, for your identification, and for your focus on areas that you could “break” to leave at least part of the circle.

Floydian Therapy calls this “chunking.” Chunking is simply a way to work at things in stages, “chunks of time” so that the situation is not overwhelming, or so large that you find yourself unable to even begin.


For more on Circle of Pain, go to:
http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf

Monday, April 20, 2009

April is Prone to Weakness after Tax Deadline

April is prone to weakness in the market after the April 15th tax deadline. April of 1999, however, was the first month the Dow ever gained 1000 points.:)

Rosetta Stone IPO jumped 40% on it's opening, a good sign for the market, and Friday the market struggled again at resistance lines before falling. Right now the rally is still missing some key ingredients:

-Sentiment is up, but without foundation

-The S&P500 is above its 50 day moving average; however, the 200 day moving average is still falling. These need to be both be rising.

For a healthy market we must break the upside, which right now is in classic flatlining, hitting top resistance lines. It's a flip of the coin as to what news will trigger another trigger point to new Dow projection highs noted below, or negative earnings will trigger a healthy sell off. With such flat lining, and last minute run ups or sell offs in 3 p.m. trading, there is more of a strong option string to the downside.

"Follow the course opposite to custom and you will almost always do well"-J Rosseau

Over the next few days I'll be sharing something I work with clients on in our Floydian Therapy work. This article is called The Circle of Pain, and is available in entirety on our website. Excerpts from the article will run in the alert this week:

The Circle of Pain

The Circle of Pain begins when we let it in, when we create it. It’s insidious, and it is not with us at our birth.

It happens to all of us. A situation occurs, and there is drama within it.
Other people are usually involved, or it is an event that affects you.

How you deal with this defines everything. If the situation you handle, and apply calm to whatever the outcome, there is peace. This means if you are “dealing with it,” not ignoring it, you can gain peace by acceptance. If the situation involves others, the drama multiplies, and it is harder to find the calm.

Take it to the next level. Now it is a family, a marriage, coworkers, or anyone interacting. Something occurs, and it requires a response.

The response depends upon your emotions, how you feel about the event, and has little real reason behind it, because you are emotionally dealing with the drama. If you are one that believes in black and white, and that “white must win,” or one that uses only facts and logic to ascertain a solution, it’s even worse.

Because…emotions are at work. Your emotions -- how you interpret, and those that you are involved with.

At this point a circle is entered. It is effectively a circle of communication, or of miscommunication, and it typically has anger, greed, fear, and pain within it.

Pick any situation that is an issue, and right now review if it does not have these attributes. It will.

more....at.....http://www.oexoptions.com/FloydTherapy/CircleOfPain.pdf


If you are interested in learning more about Floydian Therapy:

Write me at: floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Friday, April 17, 2009

Mergers are Back in the News

Our trusty May 410 Call was profitable again. We had recommended a top sell at 11.40, hit it, and for some traders they even held out to 12.40 by 3.30 p.m. Traders that bought yesterday could have enjoyed a 32% profit and those holding buys from earlier days up to 50%.

That's 8 profits this week so far, but we're losing on our hedge put, what should soon be the strong string, and two buys have been made. We'll list an additional new put purchase for buy, at a higher strike, for traders just entering the market, as we continue to believe a consolidation is due. With the strength of this market this sell off may be only to 7800-7900 range again, as we saw in the drop off yesterday. But day traders were astute yesterday, and some reported .50 profits on this position in the morning downturn. We'll move to a different put for any new buyers, and now list an OTM call for traders wanting to dual trade.

In a market that has been flatlining as it has, we need the "hedge" to a straddle, and no one can complain about our profits this week.

Longer term, Floyd is bullish. The financial sector smoke and mirrors game is complex, but people are beginning to buy mortgages, and grim news (which is constant) seems to be greeted with more optimism, a sign of a longer term strength. In www.bluechipoptions.com, our sister publication, Floyd has been leading with calls on several sectors and recommending new stock buys.

There are now rumors of mergers coming back (Heinz and Campbell Soup, Nestle and Hershey?....) traders are talking of mergers again, IPO's (Rosetta Stone out yesterday) are getting some attention, and longer term we are bullish. Short term, we believe consolidation is healthy, and would like to see a strong enough pullback to allow profit taking, and new buys.......so the market can breathe.

It's expiry day. History has shown upside.


Floydian Therapy:

If you are holding a fragile egg and are afraid of dropping it, you are afraid not of the egg but of the consequences.

Look for God, Gurus say, like a man with his head on fire looks on water.

God may not be in a book, and I think becomes a limited God when we believe he/she is.

There are only two questions that human beings have ever fought over, all through history:

How much do you love me?

Who’s in charge?

These two questions of love and control undo us all, trip us up, and cause war, grief and suffering.

There are easy answers to these questions.

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com

Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Thursday, April 16, 2009

We Are Simple to Fool

Yesterday we saw classic flatlining throughout the day, pure hesitancy, only to see the crash protection team lead the market up to the 8080 top that we've hit again and again. Again, we saw 7840 lows, to 8080 highs, allowing tight profits yet again to both put and call.

We have been profitable on 7 signals this week.

We continue to hold only a first buy to the May put, and will take a second buy today (some may have taken this second buy yesterday) if the market continues to move up, and renew our stop loss on # of days, as the market is waiting for a move, and it will be large.

Which way? It's a market being held up by optimism and waiting for downturn.


Tomorrow is option expiry, the Dow has been up 10 of the last 12 years, with 1.2% advances in 2007 and 1.8% in 2008. We have also seen a market that has held at pivot lines through 4/15, struggling between a first top and a first bottom, and showing resiliency.

Consolidation has been held through 4/15 to support lines, which historically can mean that the market has formed a new and higher bottom test. That's good news for the bulls, if true, but the type of trading we've seen this week in such mild whipsaw that dual profits (put and call) have been possible. Yesterday pre market we saw futures fluctuate with no bias, yet another sign that new tops and bottoms ranges are being considered by the market.

With October's lows in mind, now support lines, watch carefully to see if the market tries to "hold" at these levels. Many traders recently have simply put "best buy prices" in and "limit sells" and not watched the market during the day more than once or twice. Although this eliminates the need for constant monitoring it does allow the market to fluctuate and for traders to take profits, and some traders have recently also been following our test method of buying above prior day close under certain market conditions.

This is a market with more bad news than good, but wanting to be healthy, wanting to come back. Remember, at current market tops and bottoms we are near where the "crash" first bottomed last year, and we now think it is is "good news". This is how perception does control the market, and how the psychology of the common man becomes one as we begin to "believe".

This is much like WMD (Remember Iraq?...remember weapons of mass destruction?). When we first heard this, some believed. By the middle of the WMD Bush games over 76% of Americans believed there were WMD in Iraq, EVEN after it was proven there were not. We are a simple people to fool.

Mob psychology and the madness of crowds in action, and it may be happening in the new formations in the market.

Bernanke is right now trying to "open" the innuendo in some of his moves, and our compliments to less "power" and more transparency:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123975237751018765.html#mod=testMod

Successful traders use this rule: it does not matter what should be, it matters what is.

And a Floydian thought on free enterprise and big government: There is no doubt that capitalism works, and that free enterprise can control the fluctuations of the market. However, when there are no regulations and the majority of citizens do not gain in income, and a small % of the populace controls all the wealth, we are far from capitalism, and far from free enterprise. For those that say "let it all work itself out" there is not the understanding perhaps that the repercussions of it "working out" could create a nation of homeless people.

Stop reading newsbites about socialism, and the "great American experiment". We are righting the wrongs of many years of GREED.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Bank Stocks Help Buoy Market

Bank stocks helped buoy the market up on Monday, and raise one of our call options 40% at www.bluechipoptions.com. They hit 67% increases yesterday, in one week of trading.

This is what moved the market back up on Monday and allowed a count of 3 to call, potentially showing more upside. However, bank stock financials are inflated with TARP and "fun and games" as each tries to match Wells Fargo profits of 3 billion. At OEX we believe that the earnings coming out beginning this week will be not so pretty to read, and that the market may consolidate on the reality of what has truly driven this 4 week upside.

After dual profits on trades on Monday yesterday we continued to have or to buy the same May option issues. We are dual trading, with more risk noted to the call, on the hedge that market euphoria can continue around earnings, at least for the short term.

Yesterday, even while fishing, I was able to personally trade the May380P for 1.25 per contract profits, and the May410C for 1.10 per contract, as we watched the market move form 8097 tops to 7862.

With the hesitancy in the S&P 500 at resistance lines we continue to think we'll see a more significant consolidation by end of week. We will list both the same put and call that we've traded successfully 4 times this week already, but with notice that calls now approach even higher risk, and could be a loss.

Several traders asked recently why we do not "project" the OEX, and instead use the Dow. The Dow holds 30 stocks, and is the bellwether of the world, despite what many traders say. It is what is watched and read worldwide for how the market is doing, and its' moves affect the market. As the Dow and the OEX move in a strong correlation we use the Dow because of the ease of finding it "in the news," "on the radio", and available, and because it tracks perfectly. If an OEX trader wanted to use our calculation model on the website to utilize only the OEX for projections, not just support and resistance lines, it's possible, but has not been studied in the same way our Dow projections (www.dowprojections.com) has been quantitively analyzed.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

We Must Stop Arguing

Yesterday the market opened with downside immediately, but the new issue May put was available at prior day close on market swings mid morning, and profitable for day trading.

And, our higher risk call was also available below prior day close, and as we advised, could have day traded by noon for 1.00 per contract. And by 2:00 this could have been traded again for up to 1.50 a contract as the market began to move up.

This is earnings week, and the news will be interesting, with banks potentially showing some profits,and some sectors showing just how deep the bleeding is.

Citi recently offered a new program "Pre-approved for $5000.00 credit line, sign up. In the fine print, the consumer could pay as high as 30% interest. This is EXACTLY why capitalism must be regulated.

Our media we all know has given us more of the fear. In fact, last December the media predicted the demise of Ann Taylor and Zales by end of 09 and suggested all gift card holders cash in.

Every time companies do poorly, as another example, the trickle downstream continues, with other industries affected by the first industry, and the ripples devastate more of the economy.

Much of what we must do is stop arguing, about what will work, about who is right, who is wrong. Earnings will be tough, and we may show downside, but a healthy consolidation is what we need for more growth in the overall economy.

Of interest is that by early afternoon the mood had shifted and the "crash protection team" was in place to be ready for inflated bank earnings, and determined to hold the market up, allowing for two way trades. All puts and calls were profitable.


Floydian Therapy:

❑ There are really three ways we make whatever we believe come true, or at least seem to be true ):

1. Attract people and situations that make it come true

2. So believe that there is no reality. You so believe your interpretation that it seems to be true. (I am so ugly that no one likes me)

3. Act in a way that your actions make it come true.

❑ No belief is intrinsically true or false. You make what you believe come true, or seem to be true, by what you do inside and what actions you take. You cannot evaluate by “true or false”; it’s circular logic.

❑ You can’t argue this thinking with indisputable facts. A rock is a rock, but you could create the delusion it was not. In fact, in other world, it is not a rock. It may not even be hard.

❑ If you believe something is possible, you want it, and you know this....you can make this belief DRIVE YOUR ACTION. You first must know what you really believe.

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com

Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Sunday, April 12, 2009

When to Buy at Market

The day after Easter has been down 10 of the last 15 years, but up 4 of the last 5, with a 1.8% increase in 2008.

On a full moon, despite massively bad unemployment figures, last Thursday the market rose 242 points. This, with a bias of 0 just the day before, meaning NO bias, to a count of over 8 to the call.

We'll list new Dow projections this week, and hope to continue our successful run up with profits. It takes a strong discipline to follow the market for instantaneous moves right now, with the type of volatility we have.

1 of very 4 credit holders have seen their credit card interest rates more than double in 2008, with 2009 now planned by the banks to take the "low intro rates of 0 to 1.99%" they SELL to the consumer, and then utilize a clause in the fine print that allows them as much as a rate hike to 29%. Usury. An amazing statement on who is really in charge.

With this, the best news we could have is that Wells Fargo, who took TARP relief of 30 billion last October showed a 3 billion profit in the first quarter of 09. The normal American IDIOT will now take this as "look, they didn't even need the money" when in reality they are now making plans to settle their entire stimulus debt by year end if profits follow projections,and Wells Fargo may be our first banking success under the new game. What is important is that most of us will see this WRONGLY, and think the banks did not need the money.

_________________________


With the recent volatility in the market sometimes buying an option “below or at prior day close” can miss on some fast gaps up or down at the market opening.
We follow a strict “maximum price to pay, larger second buy” strategy based on the normal rebound of options over a short 4 day period, an OEX study and approach for many years.

We are finding success in “buying at market” to a prevailing signal, when the count is strong, at the open. This means buying above prior day close. Some traders limit their buy ups to 10 to 15% above prior day close, while risk traders are buying “market” at opening, both looking for 33 to 45% profit goals, typically same day.

The risk to this methodology is that exhaustive gaps UP or DOWN have historically hit support and resistance lines and moved back dramatically. With current market conditions we’ve seen more strength to a move, thusly allowing these quick profits.

For traders that want to use our signals with these revised entry points we suggest only doing so when futures are + or - 80 points, and that there has been strength to the future trends in the opening market. I begin checking futures at 4.30 a.m. EST and again at 6 a.m. and 7.30 a.m to see how the mood of the market is trading.

Many traders ask me where I make my most money in options. I’m best, when in the right mood, at simply "falling in love with an option." This means following one option only, and simply watching the bid/ask and the Support and Resistance lines. It’s all I do.
No news, no input, just soft music and day trading for .50 to 1.00 a contract after I know the “mood of the option.” This works well in conjunction with following our normal day trade to 4 day signals.

Today’s market requires true control of emotions, and the ability to take losses, as the type of 200 and 300 point moves we have been seeing in recent weeks are impossible to predict.

Study the approach we have above about buying “into the market’ on strong bias days and taking fast risk.

And work with me at any time to identify how to “fall in love with an option."

We are listing both put and call as trade, with 6 to call as the bias. Make specific note, however, that earnings come out this week and it's likely for us to see some ugly numbers.
Whether the market remains euphoric is the key question; any "news catalyst" will trigger the market.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

The Market Moved Like Clockwork

The market is closed Friday for Good Friday, and today is Passover. Trading will be very light. We were highly profitable on our day trade call yesterday, using April issues, and recommending exit by end of day.

The market moved to our resistance and support lines again like clockwork. 7927 as a high to 7711 as a low, on diminishing volume.

Enjoy your long weekend, and we will be back with you Monday. Floyd will not be trading on this pre-holiday day, as the volume too light.

----------------------------------

Floydian Therapy:

❑ When something isn’t working out for you, it is because you are unintentionally and unconsciously focusing on what you don’t want in that area. Change and focus on what you do want.


❑ Why is not a good question. How is.

❑ You are really learning to WATCH YOUR MIND. This increased awareness is what can change behavior.

❑ There are really three ways we make whatever we believe come true, or at least seem to be true ):

1. Attract people and situations that make it come true

2. So believe that there is no reality. You so believe your interpretation that it seems to be true. (I am so ugly that no one likes me)

3. Act in a way that your actions make it come true.

❑ No belief is intrinsically true or false. You make what you believe come true, or seem to be true, by what you do inside and what actions you take. You cannot evaluate by “true or false”; it’s circular logic.

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

We Are a Nation of Excess

The market is closed Friday for Good Friday, Passover is taking place, and there is a full moon. Trading may be light because of the holiday, and the full moon always seems to affect the market.

This week, in fact, historically should have shown us lows, and it did yesterday, with drops to the market of 7722 by 2.30 p.m. repeatedly. And moved up in the final hour, still closing under 7900.

Traders that held partials to our April320P sold to top profits on downswing, but we were unable to gain entry to the put at opening.

Let me comment on this:

*Repeatedly new subscribers mention to me "I was not able to get in on the trade" or "the signal was perfect, but I was just unable to buy it to follow the OEX rules".

To trade successfully you will not trade everyday, and you will NOT get in on every signal. You will lose on some signals, and you will simply not even to buy on others.

It is how you learn to day trade and "learn" the market that creates a successful trader

So yesterday we didn't get in on the put, and we're now watching May expiry options only for the future, which remain a bit too high a premium. Thusly, trades we provide will be recommended as higher risk DAY trade only, selling no later than Thursday, prior to the three day weekend.

It is not how much you trade, or how often, but how successfully you trade.
______________

A field of 111 teams will vie for a $10 million prize to build a practical vehicle capable of getting 100 mpg.

20% of U.S. four year olds are obese.

These are statements that say it all. We cannot devote money to something to save energy, and we feed our children fat food. We are a nation of excess.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

We Want the Market to Move Bi-Directionally

The first market downturn came to 7822 by 2 p.m. and allowed our traders with open or new buy April 320Puts to sell to 7.40, good profits to start the week. We had not recommended calls for yesterdays' trading, and will continue to not do so, despite the struggle for upside as the market closed. We must remember that earnings will soon be out and will be dismal, and that a healthy consolidation allows market makers profits to move on to new buys. The market does not do well just going up. Or just going down. To breathe, we want to see the market move bi-directionally, following true supply and demand.

There is possibility of a bit more healthy downside, and reactions throughout earnings that will keep the market relatively UP, for the moment.

A bit of history on why our banks are in trouble, from a small business perspective:


As a business consultant that specialize in restructuring and often works with banks for family business I've spent my career negotiating between banks and entrepreneurs to develop lines of credit, redo bank covenants, and write business plans. I've always been amused. It's been lucrative for my consulting business and in light of recent financial issues I thought I would share my own assessment of banking in the last 10 years. Note there...banks love to have the business have a consultant, and banks were great customers.

1. All bankers are idiots. I've never met a single banker calling on a family business that I've worked with that was anything more than a "glad hander."

2. Most loans are moved to a loan officer at the bank, a number cruncher that dutifully reviews the false financials the family business or CPA working for them passes over. My favorite of these is "budget projections." These are further examples of bankers as idiots, as they are the inside guys for the above #1, leading to the "suits" above them that decide policy, and make the banks investments.

3. Banks do not care if you succeed, only that they get paid.

4. When things get tough, for any reason, banks become much less friendly, unless they have your personal guarantee. This makes sense in pure business, yet risk was taken in far more aggressive areas in the past few years that actually stopped business expansion,as only housing and the financial sector benefited, most with "fake money moving to other fake money", as we have now learned.

So, I renewed a contract with Citibank (C) last week for potential review of bankrupting family businesses, and in the application process that added to my proposal they had a great question:

"What are your business values?" ( I truly love this question, as if they truly believe what you say). I dutifully answered this ridiculous question in the right way, "Capitalist Pig-Wealth to the Few"

No one said a thing, and my consulting company was listed as a bank restructuring firm to be utilized. :) By the way, my firm has done great business with this firm in the bank, along with Bank of America.

These are all goats in their own rodeo, traders, and the future cannot be in their hands.

What can we learn from this?

Lastly, a comment. Floyd believes the banking disaster is only beginning to be uncovered, the fraud so viral that no one knew the truth, and that we will have to, in the end, most likely DOUBLE our initial debt. This will be a necessary and sadly right thing to do.

Monday, April 6, 2009

April is Typically the Best Month for the Dow

April is the best month for the Dow, with average 1.8% gains since 1950, and the third best month for the S&P. Friday saw a strong hold near the 8000 market, a sign the bulls want the market to continue, but the count/bell curve was only 2 to the call, no bias to trade. We've updated our Dow projections for this week, also, after hitting every single target in our support/resistance lines.

Of interest, we re-calculated (as you should) the pivot and support and resistance lines at market opening (We recommend recalculation using the calculators in our password protected area of the website at least once during the trading day during these massively volatile market conditions. As we recalculated we were able to see the market barely moved around the pivot point, and struggled half way to R1 and S1, only to return to the pivot.

This is a sign of flat lining, and of "something big" that will move the market. We had great profits on the April 400 Call Friday, available below prior day close of 9.80, and selling back to the former prior day close, for profits of up to 2.50 per contract, in a same day trade. Traders also took first buy inventories to the put, and we will open today with only this one open signal.

And to start our week, after my lengthy soapbox of swearing, arrests, and gaining a lack of respect, I'll lead with a key question from many subscribers:

What were we to learn from the rants about the market?

Here it is.

1. I believe less than 10,000 men took this country down financially. It is not the housing bust, or the bubbles we create, or are own personal greed as citizens (although indeed it is all that) as much as it the lead bankers, the lead Wall Street tycoons, the hedge funds, and the lead game players that placed bets on the American people and economy, and brought us to ruin.

2. We now waste time arguing whether President Obama is a socialist, or whether we should have allowed the bonuses to AIG, and neglect the real issues. Who brought us down, and how do we stop them from doing it again?

3. With a core disrespect I've watched for years the great wealth build with a few, while the many seemed to stagnate and struggle, and wondered if the capitalist dream of "anyone can get rich" was true as I watched the Wall Street excesses, the multiple "false facts" be blindly accepted by the American people. As things were good, many of us gained financially, from a soaring market, to the housing boom, and little reason was in place as the home equity and credit card loans escalated and we all got MORE. Leading with Hummers and bottled water.

4. If it is 10,000 men or less that led the game, and that many participated in, FUCK them. And FUCK us for our stupidity. For years we listened to Bush tell us "the war against terror" was being won, while our human rights were being taken away, waterboarding was acceptable, and we became patriots against the enemy of Iraq (not even the enemy) before listlessly forgetting the issue, and even electing the idiot a second time on the "fear of terrorism if we did not" and the "thriving economy"

5. Fuck us for watching the false facts of unemployment show us a strong economy under Bush, when 81% of growth in employment was housing related, while the rest of our manufacturing and brain trust was moved overseas.

6. Certainly more than 10,000 participated. But it was 10, 000 or less that led this debacle, and continue to. My rants are to show you that "arrests " are not what they appear, that "there have always been black swans even though we as a world only knew of white swans, so thusly "that is what is true, factual and logical." My rants are to show you that we become zealots OVER the wrong things, and are fearful to express our opinions forcefully (why the fuck do you need to know my religion or what my job is).

The rant is to show you that you are influenced by newsbites, by innuendo, and mostly by "don't make a big deal of it, it's not important."

There is no doubt that the distribution of wealth is shifting in this nation. Ignore whether right or wrong, and imagine that this is just the cycle of life. If the distribution had not begun to shift, and if we had not gotten a President to "renew the world" with the U.S., I can't imagine what the true shift of wealth would have been, by uprising. More are fed up than we even know, and the house of cards falling only shows our closeness to the breaking point.

Think smart. Question authority. Speak your mind. Ignore the zealots.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Distribution of Wealth Shift

Jack Anderson, author, once said "the incestuous relationship between government and big business thrives in the dark". As we watch the "distribution of wealth shift," the common babble ground for the GOP and conservatives as they see institutions losing power, remember that this is a circle, and we are now simply in the circle that requires regulation, because we did not regulate very well.

This distribution of power and money went over well with G20 and I was proud to see a President and First Lady actually applauded and respected by the other countries. We've had 8 years of the cowboy, and it will takes years to restore our civility. Obama and the First Lady are out selling the agenda well, and only the smart know the agenda will shift as we uncover even more fraud.

Traders saw market moves to 8115, right at our Dow tops, on happiness over G20. Many traders watched futures and did buy our April400C up in price with the dramatic futures move, reporting buys at 7.60 to 8.40 and trades to tops of 11.60.

You'll ask why some traders do this.

These are traders that study our resistance and support lines seriously, and saw that the market struggled at the upside R1 of 389.33, struggled again at R2. 394.53 where it held several times, and then tried for R3,where it hit 398.91, just below our R3 399.72 top, before falling to hold for hours just above the magic 8000.

There is more upside potential, but a count now of 9 shows overbought conditions. G20 may now have a reaction.

Of interest, Gold held steady, almost waiting for something, at 920.00 an ounce

Floydian Soap Box Rant:

Okay, censors get happy, as it's my last day of swearing at you. For those of you that do not allow swearing in your life, you've missed a lifetime of the greatest comic and commentator in my lifetime, George Carlin, who used words like FUCK to emphasize and for meaning, and NO, another more "appropriate word" would not have had the effect. You've missed out on what you've made yourself believe to be true.

Words are just words.

So let's talk about how our nation needs to return to family values, this is one of my favorites. And it will allow me to swear again.

As a life coach therapist I deal with lots of families, and I'll tell you, I sure don't want most of the values these families have. Incest, drug use, illegal abortions, affairs outside of marriages, lies in their work, stealing from family members....whew, what are the family values we are supposed to emulate? Are they written down someplace, like the Ten Commandments?

If I am to "honor my husband" does this mean I put up with his shit when he is beating me? Or abusing me?

If I am to focus on the good of the family, and how we practice God's love, how about my shithead brother-in-law who won't even visit his Mom and makes my wife and I pay to help her?

My point: family values is more rhetoric. They are words that sound good. We don't all even agree on what family values are. If they are traditional "perfect Christian values from a book," great, but the families I see do not eat meals together, watch videos in the backseat of the car, and the kids don't read, they watch TV. Most everybody is overweight. Help me know what this big word barrage "family values" means..?

And history is a whitewash. Little do we discuss little old Ben Franklin having a great sex life when in Paris, and contracting VD a number of times. We choose to believe what we see as valuable, and choose to ignore what is not important at that time.

Lastly, to my subscribers that "must be right" and believe in "facts and logic." First, allow me to laugh at your shortsighted thinking. For hundreds of years it was a FACT that the only swans in the world were WHITE.

Then, in Australia they discovered BLACK swans. All the facts we had, that were so eloquently argued, were suddenly false.

So when those of you tell me I "deal in facts and logic," perhaps see a therapist for your delusional thinking. We ONLY KNOW what we KNOW.


And for those of you that wrote on my "being arrested" first a comment from a kind subscriber in Israel:"
"Hello Floyd,
Were you really beaten by police?
This is awful, especially since they should be protecting
people from the violence of others, instead of doing it
themselves.
This kind of brutality must surely leave painful mental scars
that won't heal.
I always try to stay away from trouble (not always successfully -
sometimes trouble stalks me). It isn't necessarily because I agree
to everything those in authority tell us to do, rather I don't think I
can change the system by standing in harms way. I am also not
as brave as you are.
Thanks,
Noam"


And here's my "third arrest" for your review. I was dressed in a business suit, driving a very nice car, with proper license plates, and registration. I was fully legal. I had not been drinking, had no drugs in me, and was the perfect citizen.
I was parked by the side of a road, two lane, in Florida, not a well used road, and with no traffic. I had the windows open and was playing opera at high volume, car turned off, just sitting there.
It was Midnight. I was headed home and just stopped to "think" on something and was listening to music.
The sirens came and the cop wanted to know what I was doing there. I told him, gave him my drivers license, and generally felt like a fucking criminal for being there. He came back to the car, having run my plates and found me legal.
So he handed me back my license, and said "what do you do for a living, sir?" That was the mistake. It is none of his fucking business what I do for a living, and I told him so. He said "why does it matter?" (as you might ask) and my response was exactly right "Yes, why does this invasion of my privacy matter? What difference does it make? You are through identifying me. I've been charged with nothing, and have been told to go.
The officer responded by asking me to get out of the car, spreadeagled me, handcuffed, and searched me for "probable cause."
I got his badge number and name and wrote the ACLU, and the police dept.

What can we learn from this experience about the stock market? And what are your thoughts....did I yet again push the envelope, proudly your man of disrespect? I do not like people that gain positions that put them in power unless they have been trained to do so. This man invaded my rights, and treated me like a criminal. Imagine if I had been black or hispanic?

___________________
And one we go with the soapbox, from trader JK:

This note comes from a fellow who is in banking...

"I'm part of team that was considering going after the Legacy Loans program (residential mortgages). After hearing from one of my partner's senior FDIC contact, I'm about 99.9% sure we won't play.

Here's what the FDIC is thinking now:

1) Commercial and construction loans will be first in the auction process. The recent Goldman analysis that was floating around here indicated that many large banks haven't even begun to mark these assets down. Literally. Lots of them are reporting their assets in these categories as worth par or very close to it.

2) Virtually all of the selling will be from the big banks... more than their respective market share would indicate.

3) Hope you're sitting down for this one: TARP funds will be used to replace any writedowns that will arise from the difference between current marks and the auction price.

So it is official (or soon shall be): the taxpayer will be the bagholder for all toxic assets on the major banks' balance sheets. The notion that destroyed capital (via credit writedowns) can be replaced by borrowed money (TARP funds) also means that the largest banks will be much more levered than before this whole sorry process began.

Imagine the following auction scenario. A pool was marked at $.98, it sells for $.50 at auction. TARP funds $.48 of the unpaid principal balance to make up the capital hit. The private buyer puts up 1/12th of the auction price (FDIC 6:1 leverage, Treasury 50% of capital). So in other words, the private buyer has put up about 2% of the UPB and the bank took a previously disclosed 2% writeoff. Ultimately in this scenario, the taxpayer is taking on something like 96% of the risk.

This is a direct transfer of wealth from the taxpayer to the folks holding on to the lower parts of the capital structure in major banks. It will make the AIG stealth bailout/scam look like a freakin' parking violation."


Now, take that information and begin to find the facts from it. Is this information correct, or is "fact and logic" again being deluded.

There are black swans.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

G20 Excites Us All

G20 excites us all. History is being made in Europe. The market wants to be happy. It's a new quarter, and institutional investors are building portfolios.

And it's rumored Rush Limbaugh has gallstones, hence he's a bit quieter. All of this prompted a strong upsurge back to resistance lines. With the count bias 2, so low, we did not trade yesterday, and continue to see the market has hard to read on the volatility. We'll issue a dual trade today, noting fast trades are necessary, and that holding out for profits often loses them in today's market.

___________________

I have been arrested three times in my life. My proudest arrest was back in the 60's when I was down in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention for Eugene McCarthy's nomination, and the Chicago police were rioting. That's what really happened. For those of you old enough to remember it, the Chicago police rioted against protesters, and many protesters were sent to jail.

After being maced, I was one of them. Loaded in a gurney, loaded in a cell. I was 16. Called Mom and Dad. Dad told me I needed to "learn a lesson."

Four hours later the ACLU got all the 1000's of us out of jail because of the illegality of the arrests.

I took the subway home, beaten down that our Police had brutalized me down horribly, and that my Father had believed I had wronged, simply because of his own political affiliation.

I saw the police physically abuse many, including me, and saw what was a peaceful protest turn ugly. It was a turning point for me in my life. Who was in authority might not be who should be, and because they were, did not make them right....this is what I learned.

The second time I was arrested was in Toronto, where my passport was confused with someone else's, during the 9/11 Bush games, and I was held in an interrogation room for hours, treated like a criminal, while my wife and daughter waited in the airport to head on to our vacation.

So what did this breed in me. How were my perceptions either altered, or created? How can "logic" of the situation, or "the facts" truly influence how I feel I was treated. There are many facts about the Chicago convention of the 60's, and much logic on how we had to do what we did, and are doing, to "protect" ourselves from terrorists.

When people ask me my occupation, another of my favorite questions, I tell them I am a "jihad Buddhist." If they ask more, I tell them I work for the government and am charged with uncovering all the bullshit in the world.

When I act rebellious like this, and question things, what am I really saying in relation to YOU and how you interpret the market?

Swearing will end Friday, and I will return to traditional journalism. Enjoy your time in my sandbox.

As always, your blogs are welcome, as we together learn the emotions of ourselves, and of trading. There are lessons in each of these stories and diatribes, and the harder they are to learn, the tougher it will be for you to trade.



Floydian Therapy:

If you hate a person, you hate something in him that is part of yourself. What isn't part of ourselves doesn't disturb us.

WHAT DO YOU WANT?

The Six Developmental Steps

1. Know Who You Are

2. Know your Assets

3 Know your Liabilities

4. Know Where you Want to Go

(If you don’t’ really know where you want to go, you can’t really start going there)

5. Take Action

• Do not wait until you know where to go - just start.

• It will help you figure where you really want to go

(Most failure takes place from lack of action)

• Evaluate the Action

• Notice what happens

· Refine Your Action


6. Study the effectiveness of the action

· Know where you want to go, take, evaluate and refine the action

As you move forward in defining what you are willing to accept in yourself, simple questions, along with regular “effective releasing”, should be asked of yourself all the time.

Confront yourself. You created you.

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

There Are No True Facts, Only Interpretation

The first trading day in April the Dow was up 11 of the last 14 years, but had strong moves up in 2000 and 2008. Facts show patterns, but also can distort reality:)

Just read our Dow projections, and actuals for the last two days:

We began these projections 3/30. Note the market hit 7397 by 3.13 p.m EST 3/30, very close to our second support line.

And on 3/31the market moved to a strong former support line at 7765, right near our 7750 projection. These are 368 point market movements in a day.

Of course, we missed the call trade yesterday as the market gapped up sharply at open. Trader JL from Austraia wrote to understand how strict I am with my rules. I do not pay above prior day close, unless we note in the alert, and always try to buy below prior day close. I do not chase options up, or down, even if I miss the profit. The risk is too high to trade with a trend in a such volatile times.

But the good news...risk traders Monday that bought OEWDR the April 390C as low as 5.50 sold to our high projections of 7.90 and up to 8.75 by mid afternoon. This trade made great profits.

What's next? Possibly more upside. Volatility makes it impossible to even analyze a market like this but it appears institutional buyers were buying yesterday, and although we may have whipsaw, we may hit higher projections. We'll be prudent, buying only higher premium issues right now, and recognizing the risk to the market.

___________________________________________

Okay, first here's a beginning of the lesson on my "soapbox swearing this week, and how it affects the market":


Your job and mine to teach you is to learn how to synthesize information for your mind, and not be influenced by your interpretation of what is RIGHT or what SHOULD Be.

Your job, and mine to teach you, is to learn to FRAME the QUESTIONS and the ARGUMENT, and not be influenced by either the presentation or the philosophy. Note: This week Floyd is swearing sometimes in the alert. If you are offended, first GET A LIFE, and secondly, self censor the following section.

Many years ago I was consulting for Domino's Pizza, when it was owned by Tom Monaghan. Tom is a billionaire now building the Disney World of Catholics, I call it, down in Florida.

He's one bizarre man. When I consulted for him I worked within one division of his large pizza conglomerate, restructuring. At the time, as a privately owned company, Tom had several rules:

1. No mini skirts, or no woman to wear any dress above her knees.

2. No facial hair for men, with mustaches trimmed to an acceptable length. (Corporate offices, not food service employees)

All employees played his game and we were also not allowed to swear in the building, and could be fired on the spot for any infractions. Even consultants, not employees, had to sign contracts.

So of course, believing that there is black and white, and white must win, Tom built his empire. We had rooms all through the many acre complex which were called "fuck Tom rooms" where we went in to swear, and "smoke on premise" where everyone went to smoke, and women would push the envelope on the dresses every day.

At the time, Tom's empire was crumbling, and consultants like myself ran the company, yet his rules were still intact.

What did his "rules" accomplish? He was showing us his faith, and from what I saw, I sure don't want Tom's faith. He didn't accomplish much with me.

There are businesses like this everywhere, and churches, and clubs,....you name it, where meaningless dogma infiltrates the minds of those that are associated. It takes the strong mind to see through the bullshit, and question it.

This is what you must do as traders. When the talking heads talk, remember these were the same idiots that told us what to buy a year ago, and when Greenspan explains what went wrong, have some disrespect, this Ayn Rand idiot was a primary cause of what we let happen to us.

Sorry, you need me. I breed disrespect, and question authority, always with courtesy. I distrust insurance companies, and hate banks. Always have. I don't trust any zealots. Leave me alone to my beliefs, and I'll leave you alone to yours. I want to make you question what is important, not what is dogma babble, the Sarah Palin mentality.

Quit legislating my morality.

I don't want to hear about your God, and I don't want to have you tell me what I can or can't do. I want laws that represent the majority, not a lobbied minority. Take your bumper stickers off your cars. I don't want to know your opinion on something, or that your kid did good in school. Last of all, I don't want to read what you think of God, abortion, or gun rights on the back of your car, or if you "believe in miracles". Quit imagining that other people even care.

______________

So for the people that don't admit swearing in their lives, does this mean they have never read Cheever, Updike, Joyce, Vonnegut, James Joyce? Are these classics to be ignored because of words used for emphasis?

We make words cause harm.

____________

And for those that have fish on their car, a question. I see these chrome fish, and I guess you paid extra to have others know you are Christian? Why? Do you honk at one another? Or, do you realize that the chrome you plate these fish with comes from China, the only country that will still allow workers to use this toxic substance.

This is just as the market. See through the obvious to what is real. Open your resources, and control our emotions. Facts and logic are mere interpretations of what we know, but do not deal with what we don't know.

And now, back to my swearing at the Dr. for asking me "my religion", a response from dear friend MP, an Evangelical Christian, with my comments. There are lessons to be learned here:

On Mar 29, 2009, at 10:13 PM, MP wrote. MP is an evangelical Christian, my good Advanced Mentoring friend, who has strong opinions. God Bless HIm.
> "I purposely waited until tonight before I commented on your rants...
>
> 1. You were way out of line with the doctor. Your comments were full of arrogance and immaturity. And yes, I am judging you by your choice of words and "tone."
> Floyd-Arrogance is defined as an attitude of superiority in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions. Immaturity is lacking complete growth or development. I took this from Merriam Webster dictionary. I was not arrogant, nor immature. I was speaking my mind in a manner that you may not have approved of.

> If you were offended by the question "what is your religion?" - a simple "I'm not sure how this applies to my medical condition" would have sufficed. Better yet, just politely ask the doctor face to face as to why the question is posed on the intake form. Please, please, please PROVE TO ME how your NON-BUDDHIST response (BIGOTRY) was appropriate. IF a doctor finds that question ESSENTIAL, he can ask it - if you don't like the question - go somewhere else...If I were the doctor, I would have ignored you as well. As the Bible says, "Don't correct a fool..."
Floyd-My favorite is as we take things out of context in the highly translated Bible with "don't correct a fool". What would have sufficed is if the Dr. and the AMA had the forethought to word the question:
"Does your religious affiliation dictate in any way how you should be medically treated?". This is a fair question. What religion am I is in now way fair or ethical, as it invades my privacy and creates stereotypical thinking.
I chose to use "shock" words in my comments, as typically the average Joe does not respond well without inflammatory comments.
By the way, the Dr. had a discussion with me, did not ignore me as you so chose to interpret, and called me the next day to advise me he had changed all of his forms to so reflect a fair question, rather than a biased one.
If the Dr. had not responded in such a way, I would not have seen the Dr. again.
True to my nature, I also wrote the ACLU to advise them that the American Medical Association allows such questions.
This not hateful or immature, but proactive and opinionated.
>
> I lost money trading because I'm inexperienced and I broke your rules...nothing more. My black and white thinking has nothing to do with following your rules...prove me otherwise. My greed, pride, arrogance, and fear caused me to break your rules..not black and white thinking. Cursing at a doctor over that kind of nonsense has nothing to do with the market - I don't care what you say.
Floyd-This trader, MP, is my friend, and an evangelical Christian. We differ on "black and white". I believe seeing things without fact or logic is critical to the study of the market, as the fact and logic that exists within the market is not truly that. I also believe all fact is subject to interpretation.
>
> 2. It is obvious that trader FTT from Chicago is a heathen and will burn in hell unless he or she repents and comes into a personal relationship with Jesus Christ. How do you like that for black and white, judgemental arrogance? What is the difference between that statement and how you responded to the doctor?
Floyd-Whew. I'll let other readers comment. Poor FTT the heathen. Put to hell from three sentences:) My response to the Dr. did not judge him, but asked him a pointed question. If he had chosen to respond in a manner in which I disagreed, I would have not returned to him, and I would have reported him personally to the ACLU, as it is not his right to ask my religion. My religion is not relevant to the medical exam I requested, unless my religious point of view would dictate how I was medically treated. The semantics of the question is how Naziism began.
>
> 3. Trader LFC from Italy is most likely in the same boat unless of course they repent and accept Jesus as well.
Of course, because Jesus is the only way, and all the rest of us will go to hell. I see.
>
> 4. I'm not sure if Trader JPW, from Missouri is a Christian or not but at least he or she has expressed some Godly values. I completely agree with their reasoning.
Floyd-Sure, he's a great guy and entitled to his opinion, as long as his opinion does not force me to agree with it, OR to participate in it.
>
> 5. Your airline commentary is completely obnoxious and irrelevant to trading - no matter how you spin it...
Floyd-Ahha. It is entirely the opposite. My questioning of authority, and the drama I showed in telling the story is to show you how we become "conditioned" as citizens to believe what is asked or told of us to be "right" or "true."
Seldom, as we act as sheep, do we inquire why?
When the TSA brilliantly years ago began telling us, and terrorists, years ago "red alert day, yellow alert day", how many of us laughed at the comedic thought...that we announce how bad the terror will be.

I am a "jihad Buddhist":), I guess, here to make you question the ridiculous. Rule followers never do question the ridiculous, nor do they invent penicillin.
>
> I find if quite amusing that people can call me judgmental for stating that without Christ - you are doomed. Yet it is OK for you to say things like "There is no absoulte truth", "Doctor's don't have a "right" to ask people of their religious affiliation" and "All roads lead to heaven."
Floyd- believe there is no absolute truth for the world, but there can be for any individual. It is not the right of a faith or individual to be so shockingly ignorant and arrogant that their view of the world is the only one.
You must see Wall Street in the same way.
>
> You are a rich hypocrite...that is what you are. A man who has mastered the market and feels as though he can say and do whatever he wants. You are a walkng contradiction. I highly respect you as a trader and investor but quite honestly - that is about as far as it goes.
Floyd-I have the right to say anything I want, and so do you. This is the issue. If I choose to go beyond "society morals" in what I say I pay the consequence, as should anyone else.
I have not mastered the market, no one has.
I have not mastered anything, no one has.
If I am unable to teach in a manner I see relevant it is the right of the student to not be taught, just as it is the right of the TV viewer to not watch what is inappropriate to he or she, or to not read a book they disagree with.
>
> Being a Buddhist as you claim, you should be able to receive my comments in love is that correct? A true Buddhist does not get angry correct?
FloydI do not claim anything. I do receive your comments in love, as I meant my own comments to others in love, with a basic lack of respect for how far we have let ourselves go to allow these questions, and to have TV cameras on our streets.
>
> You accuse the doctor of sterotyping others. You accuse me of judging others.
>
> How will you respond towards me?
Floyd-I believed the Dr and those on his staff could have had the tendency to stereotype by the open ended question, and that the question was both illegal, and irrelevant.
I am not judging you, and am only asking you if you are judging others. From the heathen going to hell you write about above, I would suspect you are judging others, just as is the reader that rights "lower quality people" swear. Read transcripts from Einstein, of interest, and his every other word was "swearing". Hmm, what a false presumption on the "higher quality people do not swear" babble.

I repeat, there are major lessons about the stock market and our emotions, to be learned from these blogs.
A friend once said " it is a proven and indisputable FACT that God created us, and that creationism is false.
This is a good example. There is no proven fact either way, only our interpretation of what is.