The first trading day in April the Dow was up 11 of the last 14 years, but had strong moves up in 2000 and 2008. Facts show patterns, but also can distort reality:)
Just read our Dow projections, and actuals for the last two days:
We began these projections 3/30. Note the market hit 7397 by 3.13 p.m EST 3/30, very close to our second support line.
And on 3/31the market moved to a strong former support line at 7765, right near our 7750 projection. These are 368 point market movements in a day.
Of course, we missed the call trade yesterday as the market gapped up sharply at open. Trader JL from Austraia wrote to understand how strict I am with my rules. I do not pay above prior day close, unless we note in the alert, and always try to buy below prior day close. I do not chase options up, or down, even if I miss the profit. The risk is too high to trade with a trend in a such volatile times.
But the good news...risk traders Monday that bought OEWDR the April 390C as low as 5.50 sold to our high projections of 7.90 and up to 8.75 by mid afternoon. This trade made great profits.
What's next? Possibly more upside. Volatility makes it impossible to even analyze a market like this but it appears institutional buyers were buying yesterday, and although we may have whipsaw, we may hit higher projections. We'll be prudent, buying only higher premium issues right now, and recognizing the risk to the market.
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Okay, first here's a beginning of the lesson on my "soapbox swearing this week, and how it affects the market":
Your job and mine to teach you is to learn how to synthesize information for your mind, and not be influenced by your interpretation of what is RIGHT or what SHOULD Be.
Your job, and mine to teach you, is to learn to FRAME the QUESTIONS and the ARGUMENT, and not be influenced by either the presentation or the philosophy. Note: This week Floyd is swearing sometimes in the alert. If you are offended, first GET A LIFE, and secondly, self censor the following section.
Many years ago I was consulting for Domino's Pizza, when it was owned by Tom Monaghan. Tom is a billionaire now building the Disney World of Catholics, I call it, down in Florida.
He's one bizarre man. When I consulted for him I worked within one division of his large pizza conglomerate, restructuring. At the time, as a privately owned company, Tom had several rules:
1. No mini skirts, or no woman to wear any dress above her knees.
2. No facial hair for men, with mustaches trimmed to an acceptable length. (Corporate offices, not food service employees)
All employees played his game and we were also not allowed to swear in the building, and could be fired on the spot for any infractions. Even consultants, not employees, had to sign contracts.
So of course, believing that there is black and white, and white must win, Tom built his empire. We had rooms all through the many acre complex which were called "fuck Tom rooms" where we went in to swear, and "smoke on premise" where everyone went to smoke, and women would push the envelope on the dresses every day.
At the time, Tom's empire was crumbling, and consultants like myself ran the company, yet his rules were still intact.
What did his "rules" accomplish? He was showing us his faith, and from what I saw, I sure don't want Tom's faith. He didn't accomplish much with me.
There are businesses like this everywhere, and churches, and clubs,....you name it, where meaningless dogma infiltrates the minds of those that are associated. It takes the strong mind to see through the bullshit, and question it.
This is what you must do as traders. When the talking heads talk, remember these were the same idiots that told us what to buy a year ago, and when Greenspan explains what went wrong, have some disrespect, this Ayn Rand idiot was a primary cause of what we let happen to us.
Sorry, you need me. I breed disrespect, and question authority, always with courtesy. I distrust insurance companies, and hate banks. Always have. I don't trust any zealots. Leave me alone to my beliefs, and I'll leave you alone to yours. I want to make you question what is important, not what is dogma babble, the Sarah Palin mentality.
Quit legislating my morality.
I don't want to hear about your God, and I don't want to have you tell me what I can or can't do. I want laws that represent the majority, not a lobbied minority. Take your bumper stickers off your cars. I don't want to know your opinion on something, or that your kid did good in school. Last of all, I don't want to read what you think of God, abortion, or gun rights on the back of your car, or if you "believe in miracles". Quit imagining that other people even care.
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So for the people that don't admit swearing in their lives, does this mean they have never read Cheever, Updike, Joyce, Vonnegut, James Joyce? Are these classics to be ignored because of words used for emphasis?
We make words cause harm.
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And for those that have fish on their car, a question. I see these chrome fish, and I guess you paid extra to have others know you are Christian? Why? Do you honk at one another? Or, do you realize that the chrome you plate these fish with comes from China, the only country that will still allow workers to use this toxic substance.
This is just as the market. See through the obvious to what is real. Open your resources, and control our emotions. Facts and logic are mere interpretations of what we know, but do not deal with what we don't know.
And now, back to my swearing at the Dr. for asking me "my religion", a response from dear friend MP, an Evangelical Christian, with my comments. There are lessons to be learned here:
On Mar 29, 2009, at 10:13 PM, MP wrote. MP is an evangelical Christian, my good Advanced Mentoring friend, who has strong opinions. God Bless HIm.
> "I purposely waited until tonight before I commented on your rants...
>
> 1. You were way out of line with the doctor. Your comments were full of arrogance and immaturity. And yes, I am judging you by your choice of words and "tone."
> Floyd-Arrogance is defined as an attitude of superiority in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions. Immaturity is lacking complete growth or development. I took this from Merriam Webster dictionary. I was not arrogant, nor immature. I was speaking my mind in a manner that you may not have approved of.
> If you were offended by the question "what is your religion?" - a simple "I'm not sure how this applies to my medical condition" would have sufficed. Better yet, just politely ask the doctor face to face as to why the question is posed on the intake form. Please, please, please PROVE TO ME how your NON-BUDDHIST response (BIGOTRY) was appropriate. IF a doctor finds that question ESSENTIAL, he can ask it - if you don't like the question - go somewhere else...If I were the doctor, I would have ignored you as well. As the Bible says, "Don't correct a fool..."
Floyd-My favorite is as we take things out of context in the highly translated Bible with "don't correct a fool". What would have sufficed is if the Dr. and the AMA had the forethought to word the question:
"Does your religious affiliation dictate in any way how you should be medically treated?". This is a fair question. What religion am I is in now way fair or ethical, as it invades my privacy and creates stereotypical thinking.
I chose to use "shock" words in my comments, as typically the average Joe does not respond well without inflammatory comments.
By the way, the Dr. had a discussion with me, did not ignore me as you so chose to interpret, and called me the next day to advise me he had changed all of his forms to so reflect a fair question, rather than a biased one.
If the Dr. had not responded in such a way, I would not have seen the Dr. again.
True to my nature, I also wrote the ACLU to advise them that the American Medical Association allows such questions.
This not hateful or immature, but proactive and opinionated.
>
> I lost money trading because I'm inexperienced and I broke your rules...nothing more. My black and white thinking has nothing to do with following your rules...prove me otherwise. My greed, pride, arrogance, and fear caused me to break your rules..not black and white thinking. Cursing at a doctor over that kind of nonsense has nothing to do with the market - I don't care what you say.
Floyd-This trader, MP, is my friend, and an evangelical Christian. We differ on "black and white". I believe seeing things without fact or logic is critical to the study of the market, as the fact and logic that exists within the market is not truly that. I also believe all fact is subject to interpretation.
>
> 2. It is obvious that trader FTT from Chicago is a heathen and will burn in hell unless he or she repents and comes into a personal relationship with Jesus Christ. How do you like that for black and white, judgemental arrogance? What is the difference between that statement and how you responded to the doctor?
Floyd-Whew. I'll let other readers comment. Poor FTT the heathen. Put to hell from three sentences:) My response to the Dr. did not judge him, but asked him a pointed question. If he had chosen to respond in a manner in which I disagreed, I would have not returned to him, and I would have reported him personally to the ACLU, as it is not his right to ask my religion. My religion is not relevant to the medical exam I requested, unless my religious point of view would dictate how I was medically treated. The semantics of the question is how Naziism began.
>
> 3. Trader LFC from Italy is most likely in the same boat unless of course they repent and accept Jesus as well.
Of course, because Jesus is the only way, and all the rest of us will go to hell. I see.
>
> 4. I'm not sure if Trader JPW, from Missouri is a Christian or not but at least he or she has expressed some Godly values. I completely agree with their reasoning.
Floyd-Sure, he's a great guy and entitled to his opinion, as long as his opinion does not force me to agree with it, OR to participate in it.
>
> 5. Your airline commentary is completely obnoxious and irrelevant to trading - no matter how you spin it...
Floyd-Ahha. It is entirely the opposite. My questioning of authority, and the drama I showed in telling the story is to show you how we become "conditioned" as citizens to believe what is asked or told of us to be "right" or "true."
Seldom, as we act as sheep, do we inquire why?
When the TSA brilliantly years ago began telling us, and terrorists, years ago "red alert day, yellow alert day", how many of us laughed at the comedic thought...that we announce how bad the terror will be.
I am a "jihad Buddhist":), I guess, here to make you question the ridiculous. Rule followers never do question the ridiculous, nor do they invent penicillin.
>
> I find if quite amusing that people can call me judgmental for stating that without Christ - you are doomed. Yet it is OK for you to say things like "There is no absoulte truth", "Doctor's don't have a "right" to ask people of their religious affiliation" and "All roads lead to heaven."
Floyd- believe there is no absolute truth for the world, but there can be for any individual. It is not the right of a faith or individual to be so shockingly ignorant and arrogant that their view of the world is the only one.
You must see Wall Street in the same way.
>
> You are a rich hypocrite...that is what you are. A man who has mastered the market and feels as though he can say and do whatever he wants. You are a walkng contradiction. I highly respect you as a trader and investor but quite honestly - that is about as far as it goes.
Floyd-I have the right to say anything I want, and so do you. This is the issue. If I choose to go beyond "society morals" in what I say I pay the consequence, as should anyone else.
I have not mastered the market, no one has.
I have not mastered anything, no one has.
If I am unable to teach in a manner I see relevant it is the right of the student to not be taught, just as it is the right of the TV viewer to not watch what is inappropriate to he or she, or to not read a book they disagree with.
>
> Being a Buddhist as you claim, you should be able to receive my comments in love is that correct? A true Buddhist does not get angry correct?
FloydI do not claim anything. I do receive your comments in love, as I meant my own comments to others in love, with a basic lack of respect for how far we have let ourselves go to allow these questions, and to have TV cameras on our streets.
>
> You accuse the doctor of sterotyping others. You accuse me of judging others.
>
> How will you respond towards me?
Floyd-I believed the Dr and those on his staff could have had the tendency to stereotype by the open ended question, and that the question was both illegal, and irrelevant.
I am not judging you, and am only asking you if you are judging others. From the heathen going to hell you write about above, I would suspect you are judging others, just as is the reader that rights "lower quality people" swear. Read transcripts from Einstein, of interest, and his every other word was "swearing". Hmm, what a false presumption on the "higher quality people do not swear" babble.
I repeat, there are major lessons about the stock market and our emotions, to be learned from these blogs.
A friend once said " it is a proven and indisputable FACT that God created us, and that creationism is false.
This is a good example. There is no proven fact either way, only our interpretation of what is.
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