Tuesday, January 20, 2009

The US Government is Closed for Inaguration Day

This is my favorite. The U.S. government is closed for Inauguration Day. What could we pay them to close more often? :)

A stock market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation, and whim. We are seeing much of this right now, with nothing but bad news coming out, unemployment hitting 15% in real numbers. President Obama will nationalize a NEW DEAL, and our country will take a year or two to shift out of disarray.

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winner for Economics, writes an article all should read, advising the President on what should be done:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/25456948/what_obama_must_do

This article perfectly sums how Floyd sees our economic conditions, and what must be done.

We have new Dow projections again, noting a count of 4 to put, now declining. 8 of our last 9 signals have been profitable, to average profits of 35%. We hold an open call that may be our first loser, and recommend it be sold no later than Wednesday of this week. I've moved out the stop loss on this position because of market conditions, and the Inauguration.

From Mike Gibbons at Breakout Watch, a concurring opinion:

"Our market model for small cap stocks turned down again this week and it looked as if we were heading for a test of last November's low. However, the market rallied on Thursday and Friday following release of the second $350 billion of TARP funds and further details on the $850 billion Obama stimulus package. Bailout funds for Bank of America, Citibank and Chrysler financials also helped to turn the tide.

Under 'normal' circumstances, we would consider Thursday's market action, when it recovered from a steep loss to close higher, day one of a new rally and would be looking for a follow-through day as early as next Tuesday to confirm the rally. As it happens, next Tuesday is also Inauguration Day, so we may well get an apparent follow-through day that will fuel the rally for a while longer. This would therefore seem to be a short term buying opportunity but we expect it will be another bear-market rally with another sell-off to follow, so take your profits early!"

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