Wednesday, January 28, 2009

We Only Know What We Know

One of out every four of us believes we have been reincarnated, 44 percent believe in ghosts, 71% in angels, and 40% of us believe God created all things in their present form during the last 10,000 years. It it this type of dichotomy that so separates us, as there are others that believe the exact opposite. And, both are right. We only know what we know.

Here's something else that we as citizens do not understand. In the last decade small businesses have created 60 to 80% of new new jobs. Small companies of 500 or fewer people employ more than half of the country's private sector workers.

These are huge statistics. It is the small business most affected by the layoffs and cuts, as it takes the circle of pain even deeper.

The market yesterday moved so slightly. First it touched our Dow top at 8265, and quickly reverted to a support line at 8043. Some chartists believe 8265 may be a top, and we'll now test 7700 again.

We see more struggles for upside, and consider another 200 point move up still possible, before downside. The market is vastly unpredictable even to a chartist.

In 2008 the S &P 500 closed up or down more than 5% 17 times in a single day; between 1956 and 2007 it did this also, 17 times.

Volatility is king.

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