The Monday before July expiry the Dow has been up five years in a row. We saw tight profits on the day trade put on Friday, and watched the market hit highs of 8224 and lows of 8053 on the theoretical Dow.
Bottom testing may not be complete, as earnings are still coming out, but a more moderate move to the upside on any event that can be construed positively. Market moves, if muted, could show the slow signs of economic recovery.
Much of the market is based on reaction to events, in a group emotion. For example, now after 5 months America is losing "faith" in the economic stimulus, a group emotion based on FEAR.
There will be a potential for downside to 7950 as a final bottom test, but a more likely market test at 8250 and then 8376. At 8376 to 8400 is a strong resistance, and we'll watch volatility, earnings, and volume for what could be a reversal to 8050 area.
Many subscribers ask why we discuss and use the Dow in our projections when we trade the OEX. Because we are day trading, and the Dow replicates the OEX almost perfectly we use the Dow because it's easy to keep up with in the day, and volume is discussed, unlike the OEX. We like to trade on high volume
"As of June 3rd, U.S. Stocks have underperformed long-term Treasury bonds for the past five, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years." We all have heard though "that there has never been a 30 year period since 1802 when stocks have underperformed bonds. This theory is unproved, and comes from Stocks for the Long Run, by economist Jeremy Siegel. As usual, this is an extrapolation of data that is "interpreted."
To Floyd thinking, stocks are not to be held forever, and are to be used as vehicles to "trade for profits," whether from index options, or actual stocks or stock options.
We suffered our fourth weekly decline in a row, the longest losing streak since the spring rally began in March, and lowest close since before April." WSJ
Please let me remind you of the unbridled optimism that has permeated our economy, and now the impatience that "the Obama plan is not working" (it's been five months), and that we are all enjoying Sarah Palin stake her position. This alone is the best comedy I've enjoyed in years. Personally, I vote for Shooter Cheney for President, and Maverick Sarah for VP in 2012. They will solve it all really fast :)
Monday, July 13, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Please Close Your Eyes
Two of the Founding Fathers were gay. South Korean scientists created beagles that glow. And 7 of 10 Republicans interviewed with vote for Maverick Sarah for President in 2012. It's always fun to gain perspective
Poll: 7 Out Of 10 Republicans Likely To Vote For Palin In 2012
And on the state of the economy:
http://us.mobile.reuters.com/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CUSMKT/nusMktRpt_uUSN0733371020090707
And unbelievably, Karl Rove is still not in jail:
Rove Deposed In U.S. Attorney Probe
__________________
Please close your eyes and simply review the past month, the meteoric rise to the market, the bulls that saw easy recovery, and the optimists out spouting in all our medias. You are paying me to project correctly, and I'm proud to report in that my cynicism has won off, and we've now hit the Dow bottoms I've projected over the last 21 day period, after a prolonged run up, primarily led by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).
All is not as it appears. A rock is not hard. Subscribers with us for years understand well these lessons from Floydian Therapy, from our Advanced Mentoring, and the mainstay of Floyd's philosophy of trading.
With this said, the market has now lost most of its gains, and the Dow hit lows of 8054 on the theoretical Dow by 2.32 p.m. EST. Study our Dow projections below carefully; we've updated what we see as the next steps.
Remember, those of you that have our Manual and study our videos that we are a variety of approaches to day trading, and it takes informed training to successfully trade in and out of the market.
We now will buy calls thinking market bottoms have or will soon be reached. It surely showed at market close as the market began a fast run up.
For traders following our buy on the Aug420C at Dow 8076 they bought at 10.30, and sold the option two hours later to highs of 11.80 to 12.30, in fast day trading. We continue to hold the signal.
Poll: 7 Out Of 10 Republicans Likely To Vote For Palin In 2012
And on the state of the economy:
http://us.mobile.reuters.com/m/FullArticle/p.rdt/CUSMKT/nusMktRpt_uUSN0733371020090707
And unbelievably, Karl Rove is still not in jail:
Rove Deposed In U.S. Attorney Probe
__________________
Please close your eyes and simply review the past month, the meteoric rise to the market, the bulls that saw easy recovery, and the optimists out spouting in all our medias. You are paying me to project correctly, and I'm proud to report in that my cynicism has won off, and we've now hit the Dow bottoms I've projected over the last 21 day period, after a prolonged run up, primarily led by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).
All is not as it appears. A rock is not hard. Subscribers with us for years understand well these lessons from Floydian Therapy, from our Advanced Mentoring, and the mainstay of Floyd's philosophy of trading.
With this said, the market has now lost most of its gains, and the Dow hit lows of 8054 on the theoretical Dow by 2.32 p.m. EST. Study our Dow projections below carefully; we've updated what we see as the next steps.
Remember, those of you that have our Manual and study our videos that we are a variety of approaches to day trading, and it takes informed training to successfully trade in and out of the market.
We now will buy calls thinking market bottoms have or will soon be reached. It surely showed at market close as the market began a fast run up.
For traders following our buy on the Aug420C at Dow 8076 they bought at 10.30, and sold the option two hours later to highs of 11.80 to 12.30, in fast day trading. We continue to hold the signal.
Watching the Struggle
It is interesting to watch this struggle. The market needed a strong enough consolidation to justify the mystifying and meteoric rise we've seen over the past 6 months. When USA Today, Time, and all the major publications begin telling us "the bull market is roaring," we should all know it's not.
What we've seen this week is a struggle again around support lines, as the market interprets news or events (economic data) around its own psychology.
We have recently read that the Amish community was even taken by our "Hummer greed" and are suffering in our economy.
Biden's comments this weekend were sadly right. There is no way we can truly estimate the rot within the many walls within our economic and environmental blunders, our invasion of China for product, and the demise of our own auto industry.
At OEX we predicted a second and perhaps third stimulus package within 2009 and 2010 last fall, and we believe this is the right thing to do. Begin reviewing our website www.bluechipoptions.com for some other opinions, and trades.
This will cause pain, and the market is our barometer. Our Dow projections for this week are proving very accurate. It takes a watchful eye and tight trading, around re-calculated pivot and support and resistance lines to trade profitably.
Over 70% of our traders may trade for a living full time. Our goal is to attract subscribers who can learn to "read the emotions of the market" and short term trade.
As Floyd has been saying, all is not as it appears, and what is seen is seldom what is being shown.
With futures down most traders didn't take entry to a one day trade to the July call, and all open puts were sold profitably.
-OXBSB OEX.X JUL 2009 410.0000 PUT is a great example of being profitable on 7/5, and hitting highs of 6.20 on 7/6
As open calls had also been sold profitably the day before we're hitting on all cylinders this week. But, traders must have limit orders always in for both buy and sell. For any traders that did take entry to the call yesterday, it was a one day trade, sold by day end.
What we've seen this week is a struggle again around support lines, as the market interprets news or events (economic data) around its own psychology.
We have recently read that the Amish community was even taken by our "Hummer greed" and are suffering in our economy.
Biden's comments this weekend were sadly right. There is no way we can truly estimate the rot within the many walls within our economic and environmental blunders, our invasion of China for product, and the demise of our own auto industry.
At OEX we predicted a second and perhaps third stimulus package within 2009 and 2010 last fall, and we believe this is the right thing to do. Begin reviewing our website www.bluechipoptions.com for some other opinions, and trades.
This will cause pain, and the market is our barometer. Our Dow projections for this week are proving very accurate. It takes a watchful eye and tight trading, around re-calculated pivot and support and resistance lines to trade profitably.
Over 70% of our traders may trade for a living full time. Our goal is to attract subscribers who can learn to "read the emotions of the market" and short term trade.
As Floyd has been saying, all is not as it appears, and what is seen is seldom what is being shown.
With futures down most traders didn't take entry to a one day trade to the July call, and all open puts were sold profitably.
-OXBSB OEX.X JUL 2009 410.0000 PUT is a great example of being profitable on 7/5, and hitting highs of 6.20 on 7/6
As open calls had also been sold profitably the day before we're hitting on all cylinders this week. But, traders must have limit orders always in for both buy and sell. For any traders that did take entry to the call yesterday, it was a one day trade, sold by day end.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Front Month Options
Japanese scientists found higher levels of lithium in drinking water seemed to correlate with lower suicide rates.
"Bubbles" Alan Greenspan, the core culprit to our economic demise, recently announced that "hyperinflation" is a threat to the economy. From a Floydian contrarian and logical point of view this is proof we will not have hyperinflation. In fact, Floyd is more concerned about the third and fourth quarter 09 for all U.S. companies. The first quarter corporations were able to do huge write offs to their bubble induced mistakes and acquisitions, and the second quarter still has plenty of games that can be played in financials.
A small child can figure out that with unemployment at 9.5% and the true unemployment at over 20%, and a savings rate that has risen to 6.9%, that there is less money being spent.
This is deflation. Bubbles Greenspan is a free entreprise boy that trained under Ayn Rand. Want the detail of why "Bubbles" led many Presidents through the "good times" as he lowered interest rates, and promoted "creative mortgaging," and was not able to slow any bubble......simply pay Alan $100k for his speeches and he'll tell you his side. It's why he's talking hyperinflation now?
How can he talk about what he "did". :)
Study up. Here's how our economic crisis began, long ago.
http://www.nonfamous.com/wp/2008/10/23/alan-greenspan-is-an-idiot/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/greenspan-shrugged-how-di_n_137465.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15atlas.html
http://www.commondreams.org/views/041800-106.htm
And as we know now, Clinton took advantage of the bubble economics to "look good" and "balance the budget." In came Emperor George and Shooter Cheney, and the neocons took over, influenced by Goldman Sachs, as they allowed oil to become a speculators game, stopped even watching Wall Street (their buddies getting rich, right up to Paulson's bail out to his friends before exit), and oh yeah, Iraq. Getting rid of the evil ones.
It's almost amazing it's not worse, isn't it?
Advanced Mentoring Student MP had a great deal of trouble learning "question false facts," Flodyian trading logic, and even more with "we only see what we see." MP wrote this weekend with an "ah ha." Please study:
"Often times, especially when I was just started as a trader, I was not able to "see" what was happening on a larger scale because I was so focused on the moment to moment activity or I was so convinced that the market was "going to" do something because it "had to" that I missed other opportunities to trade...
This three minute card trick video reminds me of two things that you constantly mention during trading...
1. All is not as it appears
2. We only see what we want to see...
Enjoy..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voAntzB7EwE
And another key question from subscriber LR:
"Hello Floyd,
A short question : it is not very risky to buy a PUT or a CALL that has expiration period in 12 days?
I mean, even if the market will move in the desired direction, in 4 days' time due to time decay an option will lose a lot from its initial value, am I right?
Or you suggest this because you are sure that the market will not be flat and will move strongly one way or another in a very short time ?
As far as I can remember, last year you didn't trade options from the current month, do I remember well?
I would also like to suggest to you to specify in your alerts why any of your previous recommendations shouldn't have been entered (even if the buy price was right, it was not recommended to enter a certain position etc).
thank you,
P.S. the last week had very good trades, I believe I'm starting to learn and the 90 days paper trading seems to me the most intelligent advise I should have taken long time ago."
At OEX we always use "front month" (meaning the same month) options typically until 8 to 10 days until expiry, at which time we begin looking at the next month issues. In recent months we've found low volume and high premiums on "next month" premiums during this period and have bought and held front month options successfully for an extended time period.
The following article might explain why:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAIJo685vdz4
And lastly, the market yesterday. Ahh, just ten days ago The New York Times, Time, and even the USA Today (complete with color comics) were showing us a true bull run market. We saw more immediate sell off yesterday to lows of 8166 Please note this in comparison to our overall Dow projections. It was also smart to recalculate the Dow yesterday by midday, noting that the "drop" had barely hit s1, and many call traders were rewarded by a best buy at 1.40 and sell to 2.20 as the market inched up after 1.30 p.m. By the end of the day it had reached 8347. Check those Dow projections again.
Puts were also available at a regular buy, as the market moved up, and this should answer a question that many new subscribers ask...."how long is a signal we give good for." The answer is: the day that we give the signal.
Entry at best buy may not take place at opening, and may take several hours to fill, or may never fill. We missed the initial run to the downside yesterday a.m., but were able to catch the upside for a day trade, and still buy a put.
The market remains at a crossroads. We are bearish and continue to see downside, around whipaw, to our lower Dow projections. However, there remains a 41% of bottoms and a return to an upside, hence why we're open (and already profitable) with two signals.
"Bubbles" Alan Greenspan, the core culprit to our economic demise, recently announced that "hyperinflation" is a threat to the economy. From a Floydian contrarian and logical point of view this is proof we will not have hyperinflation. In fact, Floyd is more concerned about the third and fourth quarter 09 for all U.S. companies. The first quarter corporations were able to do huge write offs to their bubble induced mistakes and acquisitions, and the second quarter still has plenty of games that can be played in financials.
A small child can figure out that with unemployment at 9.5% and the true unemployment at over 20%, and a savings rate that has risen to 6.9%, that there is less money being spent.
This is deflation. Bubbles Greenspan is a free entreprise boy that trained under Ayn Rand. Want the detail of why "Bubbles" led many Presidents through the "good times" as he lowered interest rates, and promoted "creative mortgaging," and was not able to slow any bubble......simply pay Alan $100k for his speeches and he'll tell you his side. It's why he's talking hyperinflation now?
How can he talk about what he "did". :)
Study up. Here's how our economic crisis began, long ago.
http://www.nonfamous.com/wp/2008/10/23/alan-greenspan-is-an-idiot/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/greenspan-shrugged-how-di_n_137465.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/15/business/15atlas.html
http://www.commondreams.org/views/041800-106.htm
And as we know now, Clinton took advantage of the bubble economics to "look good" and "balance the budget." In came Emperor George and Shooter Cheney, and the neocons took over, influenced by Goldman Sachs, as they allowed oil to become a speculators game, stopped even watching Wall Street (their buddies getting rich, right up to Paulson's bail out to his friends before exit), and oh yeah, Iraq. Getting rid of the evil ones.
It's almost amazing it's not worse, isn't it?
Advanced Mentoring Student MP had a great deal of trouble learning "question false facts," Flodyian trading logic, and even more with "we only see what we see." MP wrote this weekend with an "ah ha." Please study:
"Often times, especially when I was just started as a trader, I was not able to "see" what was happening on a larger scale because I was so focused on the moment to moment activity or I was so convinced that the market was "going to" do something because it "had to" that I missed other opportunities to trade...
This three minute card trick video reminds me of two things that you constantly mention during trading...
1. All is not as it appears
2. We only see what we want to see...
Enjoy..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voAntzB7EwE
And another key question from subscriber LR:
"Hello Floyd,
A short question : it is not very risky to buy a PUT or a CALL that has expiration period in 12 days?
I mean, even if the market will move in the desired direction, in 4 days' time due to time decay an option will lose a lot from its initial value, am I right?
Or you suggest this because you are sure that the market will not be flat and will move strongly one way or another in a very short time ?
As far as I can remember, last year you didn't trade options from the current month, do I remember well?
I would also like to suggest to you to specify in your alerts why any of your previous recommendations shouldn't have been entered (even if the buy price was right, it was not recommended to enter a certain position etc).
thank you,
P.S. the last week had very good trades, I believe I'm starting to learn and the 90 days paper trading seems to me the most intelligent advise I should have taken long time ago."
At OEX we always use "front month" (meaning the same month) options typically until 8 to 10 days until expiry, at which time we begin looking at the next month issues. In recent months we've found low volume and high premiums on "next month" premiums during this period and have bought and held front month options successfully for an extended time period.
The following article might explain why:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAIJo685vdz4
And lastly, the market yesterday. Ahh, just ten days ago The New York Times, Time, and even the USA Today (complete with color comics) were showing us a true bull run market. We saw more immediate sell off yesterday to lows of 8166 Please note this in comparison to our overall Dow projections. It was also smart to recalculate the Dow yesterday by midday, noting that the "drop" had barely hit s1, and many call traders were rewarded by a best buy at 1.40 and sell to 2.20 as the market inched up after 1.30 p.m. By the end of the day it had reached 8347. Check those Dow projections again.
Puts were also available at a regular buy, as the market moved up, and this should answer a question that many new subscribers ask...."how long is a signal we give good for." The answer is: the day that we give the signal.
Entry at best buy may not take place at opening, and may take several hours to fill, or may never fill. We missed the initial run to the downside yesterday a.m., but were able to catch the upside for a day trade, and still buy a put.
The market remains at a crossroads. We are bearish and continue to see downside, around whipaw, to our lower Dow projections. However, there remains a 41% of bottoms and a return to an upside, hence why we're open (and already profitable) with two signals.
Monday, July 6, 2009
The Patience of a Mule
Last Thursday we saw two weeks of Floyd on the soapbox that "all is not good" come true. Traders with the July415 and July420P both hit top profits, with the 420 hitting 8.20, for over a 50% return.
No traders would have taken entry to the newly recommended call on Thursday, after watching futures, and we enter the week profitable many trades in a row, with no stop losses. Many of our hedge (two way trades) have taken two buys and the patience of a mule, selling only profitably on last day of stop loss, but it is because we are in a whipsaw in low volume and a declining VIX that this is occurring.
Our Dow projections are simplified this week, as we see several steps developing to consolidation (good for the market) and potential upside profits.
Historically, there are huge market gyrations, both up and down, after the Fourth of July.
This is also historically beginning the worst four months for the NASDAQ.
The talking heads and finance geniuses have already filled your heads. Empty them. The bottom is not over. The renewal will begin. We need a healthy upside, not one based on pure GREED.
A bit of FEAR is quite good for the market right now.
Study: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124645016745579363.html#mod
No traders would have taken entry to the newly recommended call on Thursday, after watching futures, and we enter the week profitable many trades in a row, with no stop losses. Many of our hedge (two way trades) have taken two buys and the patience of a mule, selling only profitably on last day of stop loss, but it is because we are in a whipsaw in low volume and a declining VIX that this is occurring.
Our Dow projections are simplified this week, as we see several steps developing to consolidation (good for the market) and potential upside profits.
Historically, there are huge market gyrations, both up and down, after the Fourth of July.
This is also historically beginning the worst four months for the NASDAQ.
The talking heads and finance geniuses have already filled your heads. Empty them. The bottom is not over. The renewal will begin. We need a healthy upside, not one based on pure GREED.
A bit of FEAR is quite good for the market right now.
Study: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124645016745579363.html#mod
Thursday, July 2, 2009
An Important Lesson
The market is closed tomorrow for the 4th of July holiday. Trading will be very light today, as it was yesterday. The run up yesterday morning took back all of the prior day losses, and allowed no entry to the new call. Traders were able to take an easy first entry to the July 420P, as a new buy, as low as 3.00. This position will act as our new hedge, and we will hold through the holiday weekend if necessary. Any trade during the day today to the call should be sold by day end. Many day traders reported good profits on the new 420P, buying at 3.00 to 3.20 and selling to 4.20 by 3.45 p.m.
There is an important lesson. Traders that bought the put following resistance lines were able to sell profitably on a day that was UP and euphoric.
The Dow gained 838.08 for the quarter, and Blue Chips alone gained 11% as risk aversion became the mainstay. Institutional traders continue to push the market in buys, and this was the best quarter since 2003.
Okay, that's all true, but the market is at 8550, and the meteoric rise helped only a few. We saw the market hesitate again by early afternoon and give up half of its gains, again in the struggle from 8550 area to 8450.
It's simply a head and shoulders formation on low volume that will either burst past resistance lines and potentially run to 8750 or higher, OR a market finally willing to consolidate healthily. Floyd considers moves of over 220 points down in a day a sign of consolidation, if on high volume.
We recalculated the Dow midday and saw the market struggle at the new R2, 8574, before hesitancy began.
Today is a big day for reports. Employment Situation and Jobless Claims at 8.30 a.m, and Factory orders at 10 a.m. We believe it will depend upon the mood of the market as to how this "data" is interpreted.
Unemployment is a key issue in Floydian economics, and we believe the real picture is not being painted at all.
And real estate issues are NOT over: Study this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGDhz5w8ODrY
In our Blue Chip Option portfolio we own SRS, a double shorting inverse fund. We believe commercial real estate is next to fall.
Matt Tabbibi and the great Goldman Sachs expose made CNN Money today, it's good to see some true journalists hitting the newsblips.
And...from subscriber Cheryl...
"Floyd,
This is a good picture of employment / unemployment thru the years - play the animation
http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/
Cheryl"
Subscribers: Study this great link as it helps us get a feel for unemployment. Despite consumer sentiment, unemployment will live with us, as these people spend less, and we are now saving more.
This means the moving of money is slowing. It is key to capitalism.
Have a Great and Happy Fourth of July. Our next alert will be for Monday July 6th. Be well and do good.
There is an important lesson. Traders that bought the put following resistance lines were able to sell profitably on a day that was UP and euphoric.
The Dow gained 838.08 for the quarter, and Blue Chips alone gained 11% as risk aversion became the mainstay. Institutional traders continue to push the market in buys, and this was the best quarter since 2003.
Okay, that's all true, but the market is at 8550, and the meteoric rise helped only a few. We saw the market hesitate again by early afternoon and give up half of its gains, again in the struggle from 8550 area to 8450.
It's simply a head and shoulders formation on low volume that will either burst past resistance lines and potentially run to 8750 or higher, OR a market finally willing to consolidate healthily. Floyd considers moves of over 220 points down in a day a sign of consolidation, if on high volume.
We recalculated the Dow midday and saw the market struggle at the new R2, 8574, before hesitancy began.
Today is a big day for reports. Employment Situation and Jobless Claims at 8.30 a.m, and Factory orders at 10 a.m. We believe it will depend upon the mood of the market as to how this "data" is interpreted.
Unemployment is a key issue in Floydian economics, and we believe the real picture is not being painted at all.
And real estate issues are NOT over: Study this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGDhz5w8ODrY
In our Blue Chip Option portfolio we own SRS, a double shorting inverse fund. We believe commercial real estate is next to fall.
Matt Tabbibi and the great Goldman Sachs expose made CNN Money today, it's good to see some true journalists hitting the newsblips.
And...from subscriber Cheryl...
"Floyd,
This is a good picture of employment / unemployment thru the years - play the animation
http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/
Cheryl"
Subscribers: Study this great link as it helps us get a feel for unemployment. Despite consumer sentiment, unemployment will live with us, as these people spend less, and we are now saving more.
This means the moving of money is slowing. It is key to capitalism.
Have a Great and Happy Fourth of July. Our next alert will be for Monday July 6th. Be well and do good.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
We Are On a Roll
Traders were able to buy the new recommendation to the July440P at 11.60, a full dollar below prior day close, and sell to highs of 16.70 by 2 p.m. This means the maximium profits available on this day trade were over 44%.
Many traders wrote with profitable trades also on the open July 415P. Depending on length of hold, and buy, traders broke even to making 24% average profits.
We are on a roll, and it's because we are suspicious. We saw the Plunge Protection Team come in again on the downside, not enough to truly consolidate, and close the market in another unclear bias.
To help new subscribers I thought you'd like two emails received today:
-"Floyd, whew, it's hard to do this. I am trying to keep track of everything, but my emotions are often in the way, and keep breaking the rules. I finally made a good profit today paper trading, and am starting to get the hang of it, but this ain't easy." - Washington, DC
-"Hey Floyd, another great profit day for me. I am only trading a few trades a week now, bigger contracts, and feel very much in control of what I do. I'm using the daily alert for stock trades, and for the OEX. This service is really paying off big time." Shreveport, LA
The first trading day in July the Dow is up 16 of the last 19 years, historically. After a happy six months for institutional funds and massive run ups, allow my cynicism to remind you all that we are not far from the original 7700 drop in the market that precipitated the downfall. For over six weeks now I've been bearish on the market, simply because of the massively overbought and plunge protection team run up. We've profited handsomely on these moves, and we don't care what the market does, but we do want to be ready.
From the following two charts we see a head and shoulders topping pattern developing, and using the S&P500 to chart some chartists can see a down move to 810 on the SPY.
Floyd is a student of Roubini and he says, "recent data from the U.S. and other advanced economies suggest that the recession may last through the end of the year. Worse, the recovery is likely to be anemic and sub-par. . . The recession is not going to be over today. It's going to last another 6 to 9 months."
But, with this soapbox on the downside, we'll continue to enjoy call and put profits, and let the market do what it wants. If we can get returns like we've been getting, who needs buy and hold :)?
_____________________________
Lastly, let us sadly remember Emperor George Bush and Shooter Cheney as we exit Iraq shamed, with nothing accomplished but deaths, and trillions in debt. War and death continued right up to our first "gentle exit." They killed us on our way out. What we can learn from the "period of George" as i call it , is not to be led by false facts, or innuendos of fear. As we built our bubble of greed the period of George led us in our fear of "the evil ones", only to find that perhaps we are them.
Many traders wrote with profitable trades also on the open July 415P. Depending on length of hold, and buy, traders broke even to making 24% average profits.
We are on a roll, and it's because we are suspicious. We saw the Plunge Protection Team come in again on the downside, not enough to truly consolidate, and close the market in another unclear bias.
To help new subscribers I thought you'd like two emails received today:
-"Floyd, whew, it's hard to do this. I am trying to keep track of everything, but my emotions are often in the way, and keep breaking the rules. I finally made a good profit today paper trading, and am starting to get the hang of it, but this ain't easy." - Washington, DC
-"Hey Floyd, another great profit day for me. I am only trading a few trades a week now, bigger contracts, and feel very much in control of what I do. I'm using the daily alert for stock trades, and for the OEX. This service is really paying off big time." Shreveport, LA
The first trading day in July the Dow is up 16 of the last 19 years, historically. After a happy six months for institutional funds and massive run ups, allow my cynicism to remind you all that we are not far from the original 7700 drop in the market that precipitated the downfall. For over six weeks now I've been bearish on the market, simply because of the massively overbought and plunge protection team run up. We've profited handsomely on these moves, and we don't care what the market does, but we do want to be ready.
From the following two charts we see a head and shoulders topping pattern developing, and using the S&P500 to chart some chartists can see a down move to 810 on the SPY.
Floyd is a student of Roubini and he says, "recent data from the U.S. and other advanced economies suggest that the recession may last through the end of the year. Worse, the recovery is likely to be anemic and sub-par. . . The recession is not going to be over today. It's going to last another 6 to 9 months."
But, with this soapbox on the downside, we'll continue to enjoy call and put profits, and let the market do what it wants. If we can get returns like we've been getting, who needs buy and hold :)?
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Lastly, let us sadly remember Emperor George Bush and Shooter Cheney as we exit Iraq shamed, with nothing accomplished but deaths, and trillions in debt. War and death continued right up to our first "gentle exit." They killed us on our way out. What we can learn from the "period of George" as i call it , is not to be led by false facts, or innuendos of fear. As we built our bubble of greed the period of George led us in our fear of "the evil ones", only to find that perhaps we are them.
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