As we expected, the market continued it's climb and hit highs of 9673, and lows of 9468. We took no entry to the call, but added to our trade buy on the open
As I'm off on holiday I'm having fun keeping up with the news, which I'm doing more by TV than computer, and am amazed by the amount of dribble we allow ourselves to listen to and believe.
I'm off on an island this week, walking the beaches and relaxing, and gathering input in my early morning and late evening studies, as I do when studying and trading for you. But I've experimented a bit and watched TV economics one day to then read Reuters, Bloomberg and qualified sources on the web, and it helps put what YOU as subscribers deal with much more in perspective.
You see, I am not one for TV. I seldom watch it, don't like most things on TV (because they are mind numbingly stupid, nothing more) and have spent years analyzing Big Brother and how it could stay on the air for 11 years.
I want to meet the people that watch this stuff.
So, not being a TV guy, I spend little time dealing with the propaganda you hear on the financial channels, or on general news media. It's not bias, it's simply that they do not tell us anything. They repeat false facts, and interpret, and analyze around events.
You'll do better with 30 minutes on Bloomberg, or the like, a day to truly understand economics and the market.
_________________
There are two credit crunches still coming. First, commercial real estate has yet to even be realized fully for the impact it can have on real estate and the general market. There are empty shopping plazas, and leasing tenants are not able to get their rents reduced. Even Sarah Palin could figure out this means someone is not paying the bills to the banks and insurance companies that own these loans, and that these loans themselves have not yet been correctly recalculated for "real value." It's a disaster waiting to happen.
The second crunch is bigger, it is YOU. As the banks scramble to make up for their slimey losses of the last few years, and in advance of the new law going in protecting us from usury, each bank has quietly raised interest rates to astronomical 24% plus levels, lowered amount of time to pay on time (thusly allowing interest to accumulate), and cut credit limits. This is hitting small businesses, families, and the many Americans that buy on credit card, and use the cards for "living".
Living within means, and going back to "lay a way" sounds very good, very much like the Waltons lived, and it is no longer Walton time. I project a lowering of consumer credit without the use of commercial credit cards, and that it will all catch up with us.
I have one personal comment about the Republicans behavior during President Obama's speech: Children that have yet to learn to play in the sandbox. So sad.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Thursday, September 10, 2009
The Ten Trading Mistakes
The market performed well for us yesterday. Our open signal, and new buy, on the OXBIP September call was profitable to 5.70, just below our top sell.
Traders were able to buy the new signal to the put OXBIH was available as low as 3.20, and hit highs of 4.00. Some traders were able to take tight profits but most of us hold this, and that's good, as downside may now occur as it appears the 9617 theoretical Dow top we hit yesterday may be the waning of the call. As the afternoon progressed more downside occurred, and we suggest we may see lows hit now through Friday, leading us downward to our lower Dow projections.
Nice call profit, and we now own a put. We'll hold only a one way contrarian position at this time.
_______________________________________________________________
I recently read an article "Ten Trading Mistakes to Avoid" by Christine Birkner in Futures Magazine, August 2009 issue.
She did a great job listing things like: skipping research, not having a trading plan, not doing due diligence, not placing stops.
It's all the stuff I talk about all the time.
It made me think for both new subscribers trying our service for the first time, or for traders struggling to maintain the composure to trade the OEX, of the most important thing.
This is not easy. Half the problems with the U.S. are based on "this is not easy" and we keep expecting things to just "get done."
If you become capable of consistently earning 20 to 30% a day without leaving your home you are someone that is skilled. Skills are learned. The Ten Trading mistakes I read, and she was spot on with each, were all people "expecting to be able to do something without investing in their own knowledge."
As I leave on vacation I'll be writing you some reflective thoughts in our commentary on what has made me a successful trader, and how I believe the market can best be traded.
Part of my taking a vacation is from the work put in on setting up our new service, www.bluechipoptions.com
I would be honored if you would take the time to look at our work, our blogs, and consider all the ways we are making money in the market.
It all goes back to this is not easy. Last week we had a 41% return on an option in Blue Chip within 60 minutes of trading. Not all traders got it, many did, and it was all in learning how to execute, which is the same thing we teach at OEX Options.
Most people don't read well, or much. That's sad. The detail of how I teach the stock market is in our password protected subscriber area, with our recommendations of what books to read about the market, and ONLY those books, and how to "see the market, rather than be seen by it."
Traders were able to buy the new signal to the put OXBIH was available as low as 3.20, and hit highs of 4.00. Some traders were able to take tight profits but most of us hold this, and that's good, as downside may now occur as it appears the 9617 theoretical Dow top we hit yesterday may be the waning of the call. As the afternoon progressed more downside occurred, and we suggest we may see lows hit now through Friday, leading us downward to our lower Dow projections.
Nice call profit, and we now own a put. We'll hold only a one way contrarian position at this time.
_______________________________________________________________
I recently read an article "Ten Trading Mistakes to Avoid" by Christine Birkner in Futures Magazine, August 2009 issue.
She did a great job listing things like: skipping research, not having a trading plan, not doing due diligence, not placing stops.
It's all the stuff I talk about all the time.
It made me think for both new subscribers trying our service for the first time, or for traders struggling to maintain the composure to trade the OEX, of the most important thing.
This is not easy. Half the problems with the U.S. are based on "this is not easy" and we keep expecting things to just "get done."
If you become capable of consistently earning 20 to 30% a day without leaving your home you are someone that is skilled. Skills are learned. The Ten Trading mistakes I read, and she was spot on with each, were all people "expecting to be able to do something without investing in their own knowledge."
As I leave on vacation I'll be writing you some reflective thoughts in our commentary on what has made me a successful trader, and how I believe the market can best be traded.
Part of my taking a vacation is from the work put in on setting up our new service, www.bluechipoptions.com
I would be honored if you would take the time to look at our work, our blogs, and consider all the ways we are making money in the market.
It all goes back to this is not easy. Last week we had a 41% return on an option in Blue Chip within 60 minutes of trading. Not all traders got it, many did, and it was all in learning how to execute, which is the same thing we teach at OEX Options.
Most people don't read well, or much. That's sad. The detail of how I teach the stock market is in our password protected subscriber area, with our recommendations of what books to read about the market, and ONLY those books, and how to "see the market, rather than be seen by it."
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Calls Were Profitable
The day after Labor Day the Dow has been up 12 of the last 14 years. Friday the market was massively flat, but allowed all call traders to exit profitably right near end of day with a 60 point move up.
Many day traders also reported trading in and out on the fluctuations around the unemployment report (it's only 9.7%, or "real" at 16.7%) on both put and call, as the market moved from a 9486 theoretical top to a 9281 low.
Calls were profitable for as much as 50%. With futures flat, no entry would have been taken to the put, and we have no open signals.
With the count at 6 the bias is more clear to the call, despite overbought conditions, any good news could lead us up more. The euphoria seems not to "consider bad news" what it is right now unless led by a downside start in Europe or Asia, which is usually the reverse. We'll lead with a call, and no new signal to the put, pending how bias is established and if we reach market tops early in the week. The market may be setting up for a fast consolidation that could yield superb returns; we'll advise as the market moves.
America remains a split nation, fighting amongst the 540 thieves of Congress playing solitaire during meetings, or the RNC "staging" false facts around Town Hall meetings.
Many day traders also reported trading in and out on the fluctuations around the unemployment report (it's only 9.7%, or "real" at 16.7%) on both put and call, as the market moved from a 9486 theoretical top to a 9281 low.
Calls were profitable for as much as 50%. With futures flat, no entry would have been taken to the put, and we have no open signals.
With the count at 6 the bias is more clear to the call, despite overbought conditions, any good news could lead us up more. The euphoria seems not to "consider bad news" what it is right now unless led by a downside start in Europe or Asia, which is usually the reverse. We'll lead with a call, and no new signal to the put, pending how bias is established and if we reach market tops early in the week. The market may be setting up for a fast consolidation that could yield superb returns; we'll advise as the market moves.
America remains a split nation, fighting amongst the 540 thieves of Congress playing solitaire during meetings, or the RNC "staging" false facts around Town Hall meetings.
Friday, September 4, 2009
At War With Our Own Stupidity
Monday is Labor Day and the market is closed. I'd like to summarize how I see this week, and the gyrations of our market.
First, know our maxim:
* Try to always sell a stock so the person who buys it can make a profit. This way you enjoy most of the ride. Never go to the top of the ride.
Second, recognize that the typical trading range over the past 10 years is for the Dow to make a move bi-directionally, and to be volatile enough to slightly consolidate, over a 10 market day period.
This has recently been increasing to over 22 market days, a sign of high frequency trading prolonging moves, and perhaps the overwhelming euphoria of the country to say "something is really going right."
Third, my concern with any large run up is that if it is too fast it typically falters, and never regains the ground it had gotten to. A slower and steady move upward shows real buying and commitment to the market.
Instead we've seen day trading on bank stocks, and AIG, as our lead profit gains, around oil, while Gold moves only 6%.
We should be concerned that:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apG_YeCYUyEg
and from Bloomberg:
"On Monday, a glum tone carried through the opening bell in New York after China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, fell 6.7% to 2667.75, its lowest finish since May. Fears about an overhang of new stock issues in the Chinese market added to concerns over tightening credit. The volatile market, which is mostly closed to international investors, has given back nearly a quarter of its value since it peaked on Aug 4.
Markets in Europe also slipped, though London markets were closed for a holiday.
Heading into September, a notoriously bad month for stocks, the Dow industrials are up 8.75% for the year. That is just off from the best levels seen since early last November. Though trading volume has been light in recent days, the market has been able to hold on to a rally that sent the Dow up 12% since mid-July and up 45.8% from the March 9 low."
______________
Yesterday I received the following email from a subscriber concerning my ranting on the soap box on those searching for the Holy Grail, and it speaks my mind perfectly!
> "hello floyd,
>
> yesterday, a potential subscriber wrote to you asking:
>
"I am only able to devote about an hour to trading each day, or to learning about it, and have a portfolio of $60,000 I would like to immediately begin to trade, buying your Level 3 service, with goals of being self employed and earning $10,000 a month clear from trading options within 6 months."
>
> out of curiosity...what do you think to going rate would be for a service that allows you to make roughly $500/ day for only one hour of work on average (winners and losers plus commissions, cost of your level three service, etc.) that you have invested nothing into learning about it?.. since he wants to trade immediately, i assume he wants specific entry points at specific times and exit points given to him for his subscription...
>
> i would imagine that the subscription alone to this "black box system" would be more than his existing portfolio even if there was such a service and if there were a price to it...out of curiosity, what would you charge for such a service if it existed? would you offer it even if you had it?
>
> there are plenty of books out there that show how someone took $200 and turned it into a million and the author is willing to sell his information for $49.95...maybe he should start with one of those...
>
> just wondering!
>
> sincerely,
>
>
> jmp level 2"
_________
Now the market. Oil may hold steady with this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayNG0aazJhAY
This may prompt more stimulus, with Europe not raising interest rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aePx72uwvFMA
This shows the utter games being played on "socialized medicine": http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/02/gopers-decrying-socialize_n_275196.html
And this shows why our country is at war with our own stupidity: http://mobile.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/09/02/obama_indoctrination/index.html
First, know our maxim:
* Try to always sell a stock so the person who buys it can make a profit. This way you enjoy most of the ride. Never go to the top of the ride.
Second, recognize that the typical trading range over the past 10 years is for the Dow to make a move bi-directionally, and to be volatile enough to slightly consolidate, over a 10 market day period.
This has recently been increasing to over 22 market days, a sign of high frequency trading prolonging moves, and perhaps the overwhelming euphoria of the country to say "something is really going right."
Third, my concern with any large run up is that if it is too fast it typically falters, and never regains the ground it had gotten to. A slower and steady move upward shows real buying and commitment to the market.
Instead we've seen day trading on bank stocks, and AIG, as our lead profit gains, around oil, while Gold moves only 6%.
We should be concerned that:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=apG_YeCYUyEg
and from Bloomberg:
"On Monday, a glum tone carried through the opening bell in New York after China's benchmark stock index, the Shanghai Composite, fell 6.7% to 2667.75, its lowest finish since May. Fears about an overhang of new stock issues in the Chinese market added to concerns over tightening credit. The volatile market, which is mostly closed to international investors, has given back nearly a quarter of its value since it peaked on Aug 4.
Markets in Europe also slipped, though London markets were closed for a holiday.
Heading into September, a notoriously bad month for stocks, the Dow industrials are up 8.75% for the year. That is just off from the best levels seen since early last November. Though trading volume has been light in recent days, the market has been able to hold on to a rally that sent the Dow up 12% since mid-July and up 45.8% from the March 9 low."
______________
Yesterday I received the following email from a subscriber concerning my ranting on the soap box on those searching for the Holy Grail, and it speaks my mind perfectly!
> "hello floyd,
>
> yesterday, a potential subscriber wrote to you asking:
>
"I am only able to devote about an hour to trading each day, or to learning about it, and have a portfolio of $60,000 I would like to immediately begin to trade, buying your Level 3 service, with goals of being self employed and earning $10,000 a month clear from trading options within 6 months."
>
> out of curiosity...what do you think to going rate would be for a service that allows you to make roughly $500/ day for only one hour of work on average (winners and losers plus commissions, cost of your level three service, etc.) that you have invested nothing into learning about it?.. since he wants to trade immediately, i assume he wants specific entry points at specific times and exit points given to him for his subscription...
>
> i would imagine that the subscription alone to this "black box system" would be more than his existing portfolio even if there was such a service and if there were a price to it...out of curiosity, what would you charge for such a service if it existed? would you offer it even if you had it?
>
> there are plenty of books out there that show how someone took $200 and turned it into a million and the author is willing to sell his information for $49.95...maybe he should start with one of those...
>
> just wondering!
>
> sincerely,
>
>
> jmp level 2"
_________
Now the market. Oil may hold steady with this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayNG0aazJhAY
This may prompt more stimulus, with Europe not raising interest rates: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aePx72uwvFMA
This shows the utter games being played on "socialized medicine": http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/02/gopers-decrying-socialize_n_275196.html
And this shows why our country is at war with our own stupidity: http://mobile.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/09/02/obama_indoctrination/index.html
Thursday, September 3, 2009
This is an Art and a Science
During the great crash we all watched as our portfolios dropped by 50%. Recently we've been excited at the 48% rise from the lowest lows, which puts most individual traders still in the red.
With all the stories of the great successes of "getting in at the bottom" and following it up, I do not believe that "many real people," but "just Wall Street" were able to take these massive gains. Now, as we see the market begin to fluctuate it's fun to see what I call the "new bears" come out of the woodwork.
Many traders held through this downturn in which they are hoping that "it will rebound", or "it will come back". It's partially done so.
But it leads us to trades with OEX Options, and to help us understand we have to manage losses while we manage gains.
Use the analogy of a stock: Say you buy it at $20.00, and it goes down to $8.00. To break even, you need a 150% gain. The odds are not with you.
This is not as true with options, but it is why we have strict stop loss rules in place, and while we teach to limit your exposures, and control your risk management. Many traders initially start with us, and often do not paper trade, thinking "real" is better, but "real time paper trading" can help the trader see the repercussions of "double down buys" to the opposing signal, that continue to go bad.
The key to successful option trading is following rules. Admittedly the extended range market we've experienced has been trying, as has the lack of volatility (VIX) as the market trades in ranges, but successful traders have watched the option itself, "fallen in love with it" (meaning: getting to know the nuances) and traded fast and tight for great profits.
It leads back to stocks. I'm sure we have subscribers that may have 4 or 5, or more "loser" stocks in their portfolios, that are down 40 or 50%,and the subscriber is waiting for it to come "back." Odds are they will not, and this is true of options we "want" to hold for the "extra time,", so that they come back.
I love being your pessimist. I got an email from a potential subscriber yesterday that sums it up well:
"Sir
I am interested in your OEX and Blue Chip services. I am only able to devote about an hour to trading each day, or to learning about it, and have a portfolio of $60,000 I would like to immediately begin to trade, buying your Level 3 service, with goals of being self employed and earning $10,000 a month clear from trading options within 6 months.
Will you service help me here?"
My response, and perhaps it will be helpful to our subscribers:
Thanks for writing. Sorry, I don't think our service is at all right for you, and I don't want you to waste your money. One cannot learn a trade such as buying or selling stocks or options in "one hour a day", nor can one expect such strong returns on your investment in a short term, and without investing in YOU first....taking the time to learn the skill.
I know we have frustrated subscribers when they read "26 straight call profits" and they were only able to trade 2 or 3 successfully, OR were so afraid the market could not go up any more that they continued to add and add to put positions. This is the "it will come back" syndrome coupled with "the market is wrong," and I know better.
We've all been there.
Trading is an art and a science. You must study. You must take time with our manual online, and study our videos. You must understand and USE the daily pre-market alert. IN other words, you must be the student, and not looking ever for the Holy Grail.
Now for the market:
Nothing happened. Yesterday was an example of a day far beyond "flat lining." The market lived in FEAR, and did not move. Nothing was trade oriented. But, something will, and we'll keep both new signals open.
Only at 4.00 p.m. sharp did the market drop enough to show any bias. We'll keep both signals open.
With all the stories of the great successes of "getting in at the bottom" and following it up, I do not believe that "many real people," but "just Wall Street" were able to take these massive gains. Now, as we see the market begin to fluctuate it's fun to see what I call the "new bears" come out of the woodwork.
Many traders held through this downturn in which they are hoping that "it will rebound", or "it will come back". It's partially done so.
But it leads us to trades with OEX Options, and to help us understand we have to manage losses while we manage gains.
Use the analogy of a stock: Say you buy it at $20.00, and it goes down to $8.00. To break even, you need a 150% gain. The odds are not with you.
This is not as true with options, but it is why we have strict stop loss rules in place, and while we teach to limit your exposures, and control your risk management. Many traders initially start with us, and often do not paper trade, thinking "real" is better, but "real time paper trading" can help the trader see the repercussions of "double down buys" to the opposing signal, that continue to go bad.
The key to successful option trading is following rules. Admittedly the extended range market we've experienced has been trying, as has the lack of volatility (VIX) as the market trades in ranges, but successful traders have watched the option itself, "fallen in love with it" (meaning: getting to know the nuances) and traded fast and tight for great profits.
It leads back to stocks. I'm sure we have subscribers that may have 4 or 5, or more "loser" stocks in their portfolios, that are down 40 or 50%,and the subscriber is waiting for it to come "back." Odds are they will not, and this is true of options we "want" to hold for the "extra time,", so that they come back.
I love being your pessimist. I got an email from a potential subscriber yesterday that sums it up well:
"Sir
I am interested in your OEX and Blue Chip services. I am only able to devote about an hour to trading each day, or to learning about it, and have a portfolio of $60,000 I would like to immediately begin to trade, buying your Level 3 service, with goals of being self employed and earning $10,000 a month clear from trading options within 6 months.
Will you service help me here?"
My response, and perhaps it will be helpful to our subscribers:
Thanks for writing. Sorry, I don't think our service is at all right for you, and I don't want you to waste your money. One cannot learn a trade such as buying or selling stocks or options in "one hour a day", nor can one expect such strong returns on your investment in a short term, and without investing in YOU first....taking the time to learn the skill.
I know we have frustrated subscribers when they read "26 straight call profits" and they were only able to trade 2 or 3 successfully, OR were so afraid the market could not go up any more that they continued to add and add to put positions. This is the "it will come back" syndrome coupled with "the market is wrong," and I know better.
We've all been there.
Trading is an art and a science. You must study. You must take time with our manual online, and study our videos. You must understand and USE the daily pre-market alert. IN other words, you must be the student, and not looking ever for the Holy Grail.
Now for the market:
Nothing happened. Yesterday was an example of a day far beyond "flat lining." The market lived in FEAR, and did not move. Nothing was trade oriented. But, something will, and we'll keep both new signals open.
Only at 4.00 p.m. sharp did the market drop enough to show any bias. We'll keep both signals open.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
China is the 8th Largest Holder of Gold
From 2003 to April 2009 China quietly increased its gold reserves by 75%. Today China is the 8th largest holder of Gold in the world, holding over 34 million ounces. Hmmm.
The USD has been in decline over 38 years, when Nixon took the dollar off the Gold Standard. Being not so smart, I notice the USD decline even more since 2002. Hmmm again. As the dollar goes down, historically Gold goes up. For example, the USD has declined 35% since 2002; gold has risen 290%.
Right now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the world. It's a fact that as a debts and deficits continue to skyrocket, and they will, that downward pressure will continue.
At www.bluechipoptions.com we teach how we invest in Gold and other precious commodities.
The issue with debtor mentality, no matter how it occurs (idiocy like Bush, or "roll the dice on the whole game") like Obama, is that the USD loses value. And this means that we as Americans have to have something that is going up in value. There is always a bubble in some form, even in the worst of times.
Contrarians believe the U.S. Treasury bill is in effect the new greatest bubble we've created, on debt, and over time the populace (Joe the Trader) will begin to understand that a world currency, or that "something is going too right." We're building our next new bubble in U.S. Government bonds.
Remember, stocks do not always outperform bonds.
My point to this is with the vast increase we've seen in the markets recently, we've also seen our credit card companies increasing the cost of borrowing dramatically, and this will longer term cut back the credit card spender. The average American has over $8000 in revolving credit card debt, yet only 56% of Americans even have a credit card. There are many false facts I could find in researching average debt, but it took me to:
1. declining home equity debt availability
2. housing declines, despite all the happy stuff that "it's getting better", continue
3. when Americans want stuff they are going to have to actually pay for it.
So, with that, read this article, which even leads with my slimey friends Goldman Sachs, and how they may have helped lead our "economic recovery". Do not trust false facts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auGWGWlnohNo
__________
At opening the Sept 490C was available as the market dipped,as low as 1.95 and sold to 3.20 by 10.11 a.m. This is how fast a trade is taking place. The buyer had to put a buy below prior day close in, prior to opening,based on negative futures, and immediately sell at r1. Smart traders took new entry to our new buy put, the Sept 475 Put, which was bought at 9.50 to 10.50 on 9/1 and sold to 13.00 by 11.35 a.m. for two profitable sales before noon.
And, our Sept440 Put hit 6.50, also profitable,by 11.30 a.m.
All three signals were sold profitably before noon, as the market dropped 175 points.
By 12 noon the following had taken place:
1. Dow hit highs of 9598, after an opening dip that allowed a call buy, and sale within 45 minutes
2. Dow hit theoretical Lows of 9276 before 11.30 a.m., allowing both open puts to be profitable.
Consolidation took place, and may at this time, be all there is, before more upside. It's too soon to
tell, but it is a resilient market
And by the end of the sell off, we hit a 9252 theoretical Dow low, the Sept460P hit tops of 8.50, and the Sept475P hit tops of 16.80, both beyond our recommended top.
And to think for the smart, fast trader, calls were profitable too.
And the talking heads now are telling us how bad the economy is. It's so fun to watch. I have the ticket for 2012: Cheney/Palin. It could end the world, and we would not have to worry about anything :)
The USD has been in decline over 38 years, when Nixon took the dollar off the Gold Standard. Being not so smart, I notice the USD decline even more since 2002. Hmmm again. As the dollar goes down, historically Gold goes up. For example, the USD has declined 35% since 2002; gold has risen 290%.
Right now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the world. It's a fact that as a debts and deficits continue to skyrocket, and they will, that downward pressure will continue.
At www.bluechipoptions.com we teach how we invest in Gold and other precious commodities.
The issue with debtor mentality, no matter how it occurs (idiocy like Bush, or "roll the dice on the whole game") like Obama, is that the USD loses value. And this means that we as Americans have to have something that is going up in value. There is always a bubble in some form, even in the worst of times.
Contrarians believe the U.S. Treasury bill is in effect the new greatest bubble we've created, on debt, and over time the populace (Joe the Trader) will begin to understand that a world currency, or that "something is going too right." We're building our next new bubble in U.S. Government bonds.
Remember, stocks do not always outperform bonds.
My point to this is with the vast increase we've seen in the markets recently, we've also seen our credit card companies increasing the cost of borrowing dramatically, and this will longer term cut back the credit card spender. The average American has over $8000 in revolving credit card debt, yet only 56% of Americans even have a credit card. There are many false facts I could find in researching average debt, but it took me to:
1. declining home equity debt availability
2. housing declines, despite all the happy stuff that "it's getting better", continue
3. when Americans want stuff they are going to have to actually pay for it.
So, with that, read this article, which even leads with my slimey friends Goldman Sachs, and how they may have helped lead our "economic recovery". Do not trust false facts.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auGWGWlnohNo
__________
At opening the Sept 490C was available as the market dipped,as low as 1.95 and sold to 3.20 by 10.11 a.m. This is how fast a trade is taking place. The buyer had to put a buy below prior day close in, prior to opening,based on negative futures, and immediately sell at r1. Smart traders took new entry to our new buy put, the Sept 475 Put, which was bought at 9.50 to 10.50 on 9/1 and sold to 13.00 by 11.35 a.m. for two profitable sales before noon.
And, our Sept440 Put hit 6.50, also profitable,by 11.30 a.m.
All three signals were sold profitably before noon, as the market dropped 175 points.
By 12 noon the following had taken place:
1. Dow hit highs of 9598, after an opening dip that allowed a call buy, and sale within 45 minutes
2. Dow hit theoretical Lows of 9276 before 11.30 a.m., allowing both open puts to be profitable.
Consolidation took place, and may at this time, be all there is, before more upside. It's too soon to
tell, but it is a resilient market
And by the end of the sell off, we hit a 9252 theoretical Dow low, the Sept460P hit tops of 8.50, and the Sept475P hit tops of 16.80, both beyond our recommended top.
And to think for the smart, fast trader, calls were profitable too.
And the talking heads now are telling us how bad the economy is. It's so fun to watch. I have the ticket for 2012: Cheney/Palin. It could end the world, and we would not have to worry about anything :)
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Negative Futures
Yesterday the market showed negative futures, and all the news was on China hitting a bear market, and a huge drop. Copper, oil and related commodities were the first to go, and we saw more world money moving into cash, the yen and Treasuries. Most of the overbought stocks are starting to slip, even AIG the wonder slime stock that people are now wondering is overvalued :)
VIX is a lagging, NOT leading indicator, but as we we see VIX rise more FEAR will enter the market. All the talking heads Monday seemed to have taken a "fear pill" over the weekend, and the TV money shows were babbling about the depth of the downturn in September. My neck would twist as I took an hour of this in today, for the pure entertainment of the "position taking."
We recalculated the Dow and twitted out at 10 am., and the market spent most of the day trying to approach the new s1, and even tried for r1, struggling but staying below the pivot point all through the normal 2.30 p.m. whipsaw, preceding 3.00 to 4.15 p.m. EST that I now consider simply a free for all of guessing.
The first trading day in September the S & P was up for 5 straight years 2003-2007, but lost 4.2% in 2002.
Shawn Adams once said, "The CROWD is always wrong at market turning points, but often times right once a trend has set in. The reason many market fighters go broke is they believe the CROWD is always wrong.
There is nothing further from the truth. Unless volatility is extremely low or very high one should think twice before betting against the CROWD."
It also appears retail is losing its luster with institutional investors. Hmmm. What might they know?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a6mZZQ99ik80
Home equity loans are now hard to get. Duh. Credit cards, run by banks who lost their ass screwing us, and then we paid to stay in business, have a new game, and it will hit us big time: Millions Face Cuts In Credit Card Limits, Biggest Industry Shake-Up In 20 Years
Read carefully, you have Floydian prediction here: "lay a way" is back with a vengeance and becoming increasingly "the way to pay", as people will have much less credit.
VIX is a lagging, NOT leading indicator, but as we we see VIX rise more FEAR will enter the market. All the talking heads Monday seemed to have taken a "fear pill" over the weekend, and the TV money shows were babbling about the depth of the downturn in September. My neck would twist as I took an hour of this in today, for the pure entertainment of the "position taking."
We recalculated the Dow and twitted out at 10 am., and the market spent most of the day trying to approach the new s1, and even tried for r1, struggling but staying below the pivot point all through the normal 2.30 p.m. whipsaw, preceding 3.00 to 4.15 p.m. EST that I now consider simply a free for all of guessing.
The first trading day in September the S & P was up for 5 straight years 2003-2007, but lost 4.2% in 2002.
Shawn Adams once said, "The CROWD is always wrong at market turning points, but often times right once a trend has set in. The reason many market fighters go broke is they believe the CROWD is always wrong.
There is nothing further from the truth. Unless volatility is extremely low or very high one should think twice before betting against the CROWD."
It also appears retail is losing its luster with institutional investors. Hmmm. What might they know?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a6mZZQ99ik80
Home equity loans are now hard to get. Duh. Credit cards, run by banks who lost their ass screwing us, and then we paid to stay in business, have a new game, and it will hit us big time: Millions Face Cuts In Credit Card Limits, Biggest Industry Shake-Up In 20 Years
Read carefully, you have Floydian prediction here: "lay a way" is back with a vengeance and becoming increasingly "the way to pay", as people will have much less credit.
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