From market movements yesterday we saw theoretical highs of 10,078, and by 3.15 lows of 9914. As you review our Dow projections you should see the pattern.
There are patterns: the USD looks overbought, and Gold seems tied to the dollar. Chartists see and ABC correction for GLD. Oil flirted with support lines. Something needs to break.
Study the market to know how it breathes. Know what intelligent people, and what the masses, are thinking.
Here's an example of intelligence:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1959029,00.html
Who does he influence?
Does Goldman really run the country?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/06/goldman-sachs-helped-push_n_452257.html
Who are you angry with? How could that be affecting your trading?
Do any of us, from Tea Partiers, to liberals, to conservatives, understand that our own government has frozen itself in paralysis, with Obama's left being trampled by a plan by the GOP systematically, we accomplish nothing again?
And if the Tea Partiers took over the country, like the Obama "change agents" that voted, will they too see their leaders caught up in a Washington insider circle of greed, that many do not even know how this FUBAR (key words) that is the Washington monster it appears really that no one wins, and no one can ever agree to even work together.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
A Pent Up Consolidation Continued to Erupt
Friday showed how VIX, and the complacency the market had felt, was far from true; instead, a pent up consolidation continued to erupt.
The market hit theoretical Dow lows Friday of 9797, only to close at 10,012, or 10,042 on the theoretical. For months Floyd has provided projections, and discussed what is called a Fibonnacci retracement. This ancient mathematician used his numerology analysis to predict that from the "lowest low" of something it will rise 38 and then 63%. The market did just that and we predicted hesitancy and confusion at 10,746. We've been doing so for months. As the market reached this, and a slight step above it, we began to see the faltering. Fibonnaci and chartists typically see a 10 to 20% pullback from the new 63% highest high. This would put the Dow at 9671. Friday we came very close to this bottom before ending the day above the, psychologically important, 10,000 mark.
Pay very careful attention to our new Dow projections. Many of our traders have made great bucks this last week just following support/resistance lines and our Dow projections.
So, what's next? Was this a good and healthy consolidation from a market that moved up too quickly, or is this the U.S. economy being noted globally for not having the resiliency or strength, and that our debt will overtake us?
Being one what trusts and believes almost nothing, I make note that the arctic ice melt is to cost 2.4 trillion. Of course many with IQ'x of 40 or more actually believe there is no global warming.
These were the folks that voted for Bush the second time :)
If the arctic ice melt can cost 2.4 trillion, where does this come from. If the Euro is now losing value, the USD gaining value, and Gold and Oil losing value, what do you make of it?
I know oil will run from 60.00 to 100.00 a barrel, and run in cycles.
I know the USD is really worthless shit, completely made up of debt and promises
I know that the Euro will not make it over the long run, and discussions of world currency will circulate again..
I know these things as opinions, of course, that you are paying for as you project the market short term. So, here is what I know about a 10 vs. a 20% correction. If the market continues to correct, and passes below 9500 we suggest that the country will be ripe for another, even larger stimulus plan, increasing our debt further, and that Congress will pass it. This will occur as we hit 20% lows.
If the market holds near where we bottomed on Friday and holds steady, or shows slight increases, then 2010 will continue in the same slight whipsaw, light increase, decrease, and a lucky year end of 2-5% above prior year, if we're lucky.
It's a trying time. We will lead with a call, on the optimistic side that we may now trigger a short term upside, but pay attention to futures carefully. We think the Friday upside reversal may give way to an oversold bounce.
However, if one reviews the NYSE Bullish Percent Index it's easy to see how my comments above show a turbulent year and no quick recoveries.
The market hit theoretical Dow lows Friday of 9797, only to close at 10,012, or 10,042 on the theoretical. For months Floyd has provided projections, and discussed what is called a Fibonnacci retracement. This ancient mathematician used his numerology analysis to predict that from the "lowest low" of something it will rise 38 and then 63%. The market did just that and we predicted hesitancy and confusion at 10,746. We've been doing so for months. As the market reached this, and a slight step above it, we began to see the faltering. Fibonnaci and chartists typically see a 10 to 20% pullback from the new 63% highest high. This would put the Dow at 9671. Friday we came very close to this bottom before ending the day above the, psychologically important, 10,000 mark.
Pay very careful attention to our new Dow projections. Many of our traders have made great bucks this last week just following support/resistance lines and our Dow projections.
So, what's next? Was this a good and healthy consolidation from a market that moved up too quickly, or is this the U.S. economy being noted globally for not having the resiliency or strength, and that our debt will overtake us?
Being one what trusts and believes almost nothing, I make note that the arctic ice melt is to cost 2.4 trillion. Of course many with IQ'x of 40 or more actually believe there is no global warming.
These were the folks that voted for Bush the second time :)
If the arctic ice melt can cost 2.4 trillion, where does this come from. If the Euro is now losing value, the USD gaining value, and Gold and Oil losing value, what do you make of it?
I know oil will run from 60.00 to 100.00 a barrel, and run in cycles.
I know the USD is really worthless shit, completely made up of debt and promises
I know that the Euro will not make it over the long run, and discussions of world currency will circulate again..
I know these things as opinions, of course, that you are paying for as you project the market short term. So, here is what I know about a 10 vs. a 20% correction. If the market continues to correct, and passes below 9500 we suggest that the country will be ripe for another, even larger stimulus plan, increasing our debt further, and that Congress will pass it. This will occur as we hit 20% lows.
If the market holds near where we bottomed on Friday and holds steady, or shows slight increases, then 2010 will continue in the same slight whipsaw, light increase, decrease, and a lucky year end of 2-5% above prior year, if we're lucky.
It's a trying time. We will lead with a call, on the optimistic side that we may now trigger a short term upside, but pay attention to futures carefully. We think the Friday upside reversal may give way to an oversold bounce.
However, if one reviews the NYSE Bullish Percent Index it's easy to see how my comments above show a turbulent year and no quick recoveries.
Friday, February 5, 2010
Become More Humble as the Market Goes Your Way
"Become more humble as the market goes your way." - Bernard Baruch
Job reports out today, which should hold at 10%, and non farm payrolls also reported; both of these can act as "triggers" in the market.....and did they. By 10.17 p.m. the market had dropped 176 points, to a theoretical Dow low of 10,043. We twitted new support and resistance lines and sent them out. Our long out of the money hedge to the OEX Feb 465 Put rose to 2.20 by 10.30 a.m.
We held three days, bought twice, and had a 100% plus return, for another great profit this week. Again, we bought at $1.10, and sold to 2.36 for a doubling by noon.
The market is very very fearful, even if VIX shows complacency. It's why I see it as a lagging signal, showing the validity to us of the public mood, but never reflecting where support and resistance "kick in." We saw it at 10,746, what we projected as the Fibonnacci top, and the slight move above it, before a drop now to just above 10,000. We've hit almost an 8% correction since the beginning of the year, not a good sign for the market, some say, in 2010. By 1 p.m. the theoretical Dow had fallen below 10,000 and we were approaching the 240 drop that we believe confirms a true bear bias.
We will issue a higher risk trade call for possible retracement, but remain watchful that the market may have another 3 to 5% to truly drop and shock us, with a true 10% plus correction.
Job reports out today, which should hold at 10%, and non farm payrolls also reported; both of these can act as "triggers" in the market.....and did they. By 10.17 p.m. the market had dropped 176 points, to a theoretical Dow low of 10,043. We twitted new support and resistance lines and sent them out. Our long out of the money hedge to the OEX Feb 465 Put rose to 2.20 by 10.30 a.m.
We held three days, bought twice, and had a 100% plus return, for another great profit this week. Again, we bought at $1.10, and sold to 2.36 for a doubling by noon.
The market is very very fearful, even if VIX shows complacency. It's why I see it as a lagging signal, showing the validity to us of the public mood, but never reflecting where support and resistance "kick in." We saw it at 10,746, what we projected as the Fibonnacci top, and the slight move above it, before a drop now to just above 10,000. We've hit almost an 8% correction since the beginning of the year, not a good sign for the market, some say, in 2010. By 1 p.m. the theoretical Dow had fallen below 10,000 and we were approaching the 240 drop that we believe confirms a true bear bias.
We will issue a higher risk trade call for possible retracement, but remain watchful that the market may have another 3 to 5% to truly drop and shock us, with a true 10% plus correction.
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Elevated Fear Gage
The stock market's fear gauge, VIX, has been elevated in recent days, as stocks bounce around in a series of noteworthy moves. But it appears some traders are preparing for mellower days. The WSJ announced a trade yesterday, one of the largest of the day, one investor bought heavily on put options on VIX. This was a very very large bet. In the meantime the market maneuvered well for us. We showed several Advanced Mentoring students today exactly how we traded, and many others did, as the volatility was perfect for a fast profit to the call.
1. Futures we watched pre-market and were "mixed." I placed an order for 7.00, one dollar less than prior day close. I could have held for 6.25, the 33% low, but felt the market might turn.
2. I immediately placed an order to sell, at a limit, for the day at 8.00, and sold within 30 minutes.
3. Many traders reported doing this with ITM February issues also, as it is not the option that is the signal but the count or bias that is.
Remember, I day traded that call, but it's still to some (that are not day trading) an open position.
Learning to trade well with us is to recognize we offer a variety of methods around the same system for all types of traders from our brokers, to individual investors.
"If the trader has a negative view on the market he may be short equities and may be using these contracts to protect himself against a slow market rebound."
The downside has not been proven. We'll list a call for the euphoric that see a rise to 10,400
"Whatever method you use to pick stocks...., your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world so long enough to allow your investments to succeed. It isn't the head but the stomach that determines the fate of the stockpicker." - Peter Lynch
1. Futures we watched pre-market and were "mixed." I placed an order for 7.00, one dollar less than prior day close. I could have held for 6.25, the 33% low, but felt the market might turn.
2. I immediately placed an order to sell, at a limit, for the day at 8.00, and sold within 30 minutes.
3. Many traders reported doing this with ITM February issues also, as it is not the option that is the signal but the count or bias that is.
Remember, I day traded that call, but it's still to some (that are not day trading) an open position.
Learning to trade well with us is to recognize we offer a variety of methods around the same system for all types of traders from our brokers, to individual investors.
"If the trader has a negative view on the market he may be short equities and may be using these contracts to protect himself against a slow market rebound."
The downside has not been proven. We'll list a call for the euphoric that see a rise to 10,400
"Whatever method you use to pick stocks...., your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world so long enough to allow your investments to succeed. It isn't the head but the stomach that determines the fate of the stockpicker." - Peter Lynch
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Bulls Pull the Market
"I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon" - Baron Nathan Rothchild's success formula
Automakers report results today. Geithner and Volcker both testify and speak. Tomorrow we have the ISM non manufacturing index report, which Barclays thinks went into positive territory in January. This could trigger movement. We saw the bulls pull the market right back in whipsaw yesterday. Call profits were simply extraordinary!!
-OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL was available as low as 5.76, just below prior day close, and hit highs of 8.35 by 2.00 p.m. Many traders reported getting in at prior day close and selling to 7.50 up.
This leaves us with an open and losing hedge put which we'll hold, as each resistance line we cross. This is a very OTM issue that could surprise us with upside potential, and allows us to lock call profits. Volatility is slightly increasing. Calls are now higher risk, as the bias has shifted, but in whipsaw.
The market stayed above SPX 1100, a strong resistance area, and held above 500 and then 505, key support areas.
Automakers report results today. Geithner and Volcker both testify and speak. Tomorrow we have the ISM non manufacturing index report, which Barclays thinks went into positive territory in January. This could trigger movement. We saw the bulls pull the market right back in whipsaw yesterday. Call profits were simply extraordinary!!
-OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL was available as low as 5.76, just below prior day close, and hit highs of 8.35 by 2.00 p.m. Many traders reported getting in at prior day close and selling to 7.50 up.
This leaves us with an open and losing hedge put which we'll hold, as each resistance line we cross. This is a very OTM issue that could surprise us with upside potential, and allows us to lock call profits. Volatility is slightly increasing. Calls are now higher risk, as the bias has shifted, but in whipsaw.
The market stayed above SPX 1100, a strong resistance area, and held above 500 and then 505, key support areas.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Dollar Hits Five Month High
ADP shows its January payroll survey, often more accurate than our unemployment reporting :)
Chartists tell us: DOLLAR INDEX HITS FIVE MONTH HIGH ($USD,$FXE) - GOLD FINDS SUPPORT AT 1080 ($GOLD,GLD) - OIL HITS POTENTIAL SUPPORT ($WTIC) - BONDS HIT RESISTANCE ZONE ($USB)
The market by noon yesterday had hit tops of 10,228. Our new recommendation to the call -OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL was profitable to .80, but very difficult to trade.
We'll treat it as an open signal. Contrarians took much easier entry to the put, which could be an interesting move if yesterday's move was an "exhaustive gap" and more downside is to come. Remember we have already suffered a 700 point drop, right at our Fibonacci top at 10,746.
We note that the OEX cannot penetrate several strong resistance areas, and struggles at 500.
The market is obviously oversold, but we suggest our rally will be brief, and that more downside, below 9950, increases despite upside.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs is going to pay himself 100 million a year, a direct snub to our government. It has become so imbedded with greed, the entire system, that it may be possible to realize we have hit "incomplete incompetency."
"Today we deal with 65,000 more pieces of information each day than our ancestors did 100 years ago." – Anonymous
Chartists tell us: DOLLAR INDEX HITS FIVE MONTH HIGH ($USD,$FXE) - GOLD FINDS SUPPORT AT 1080 ($GOLD,GLD) - OIL HITS POTENTIAL SUPPORT ($WTIC) - BONDS HIT RESISTANCE ZONE ($USB)
The market by noon yesterday had hit tops of 10,228. Our new recommendation to the call -OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL was profitable to .80, but very difficult to trade.
We'll treat it as an open signal. Contrarians took much easier entry to the put, which could be an interesting move if yesterday's move was an "exhaustive gap" and more downside is to come. Remember we have already suffered a 700 point drop, right at our Fibonacci top at 10,746.
We note that the OEX cannot penetrate several strong resistance areas, and struggles at 500.
The market is obviously oversold, but we suggest our rally will be brief, and that more downside, below 9950, increases despite upside.
The CEO of Goldman Sachs is going to pay himself 100 million a year, a direct snub to our government. It has become so imbedded with greed, the entire system, that it may be possible to realize we have hit "incomplete incompetency."
"Today we deal with 65,000 more pieces of information each day than our ancestors did 100 years ago." – Anonymous
Monday, February 1, 2010
Sectors Are Shifting
First day trading in February, 2009 broke 6-year Dow and S&P winning streak. NASDAQ’s 5 year win streak remains intact.
Both the Dow and the OEX bullish % remain above 50%. Support seems be holding a bit for the S&P500, and our new Dow projections below outline what could happen. A 10% correction from our recent highs leaves the market right back at the 9750 bottom tests that have occurred before.
Sectors are shifting. This means some "sectors" will now decline, while others increase. We've certainly learned in recent days just how important technology is.
It was most interesting in the whirlwind tight whipsaw Friday to see -OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL hit highs of 8.10 and lows of 4.30. It was possible for up to $1.00 per contract day trade profits at least three times on Friday.
Both the Dow and the OEX bullish % remain above 50%. Support seems be holding a bit for the S&P500, and our new Dow projections below outline what could happen. A 10% correction from our recent highs leaves the market right back at the 9750 bottom tests that have occurred before.
Sectors are shifting. This means some "sectors" will now decline, while others increase. We've certainly learned in recent days just how important technology is.
It was most interesting in the whirlwind tight whipsaw Friday to see -OEB100220C505 FEB 2010 505.0000 CALL hit highs of 8.10 and lows of 4.30. It was possible for up to $1.00 per contract day trade profits at least three times on Friday.
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