Friday, February 27, 2009

Facts Are Fallible

Bill Gates said in 1981 "640k ought to be enough for anybody." Try running Microsoft Vista without a gig. (Or, better, try running Vista at all:))

What we think is true is only from our current knowledge. When we "KNOW" we are right, we only KNOW what we know, not what is not learned or known yet.

Facts are thusly fallible. There is no black and white.

The market proved this well yesterday. The Dow hit tops of 7442 and bottoms of 7133 in one day, classic whipsaw trading, with both put and call actually losing value at times when they should not have, indicators of a confused market.

Traders reported sales on open March370C right to our top sells at 13.40, and the OTM March 395C was available on downturn and was sold on upturn to profit highs of up to 1.30, making calls yet again profitable.

We believe the market has more upside potential, but may be around whipsaw and fear. Study our Dow projections well, as we've been right on track in our watching of the breathing of the market.


Floydian Therapy:

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:

Different schools of thought over the centuries have found different explanations for man’s apparently inherently flawed state. Taoists call it inbalance, Buddhists call it ignorance, Islam blames our misery on rebellion from God, and Christians attribute all of our suffering to original sin. Freudians say that unhappiness is the inevitable result of the clash between our natural drives and civilization’s needs.

Jungian pyschologists believe desire is the design flaw.

Each of us strives to find what we believe in, and many of us then spend our lives telling others that they are wrong for not believing the same thing.

We wrongly believe that our limited little egos constitute our whole entire universe.

We have failed to recognize our deeper divine character. We don’t realize that, somewhere within us all, there does exist a Supreme Self who is eternally at peace.

That Supreme Self is our true identity, universal and divine.

The Greek Philosopher Epictetus said, “You bear God within you, poor wretch, and know it not”.

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com

Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Thursday, February 26, 2009

All Calls Were Profitable Yesterday

Some chartists believe we have a 33 year bull market to correct, and were only one year into the correction. These chartists believe it cannot be fixed, and the 2002 low was our first sign of what a bubble we were building: Credit, housing, commodity, and the even larger stock bubble.

It all comes down to this: these chartists, the doomsayers, think we have seen the bull market top, and that we could still have nine plus years to go of a bear market, if the cycle traders are right.

The market reacted to the President's speech much as America did. Many like what he is doing, and many do not....so the market reacted in the same fashion, with another bottom test at 7116, and another top test above 7450, all before 3 p.m, with the market not holding and retreating in the last hour. We believe the market has more upside, but will reverse to our lower Dow projections in a short time.

All calls were profitable yesterday! We were able to trade the March370C right near our tops, and our OTM call recommendation from yesterday from lows of 1.50 to 2.80 tops by 3.30 p.m. again. We again saw the market top near 7444, with a strong whipsaw through the day.

We continue to see market tops, so be cautious with all upswing trades, as a market shift is very likely. We'll list a call to trade, but take tight profits, and be sure and follow futures carefully. Do not trade calls if futures are down more than 80 points.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

The Market Turned Finally Turned

An undisclosed buyer offered the Mpls airport $5000.00 for Senator Craig's bathroom stall. The offer was not accepted. :)


Finally, after 11 straight days of downside, and a bottom test at 7000, the market turned. Calls were able to be bought as low as 8.50, for new trades, and for traders that already had bought, hit first tops of 12.70

As you study our Dow projections note the strong resistance we see at 7590 area, with struggles all the way to this. It's likely to even have whipsaw trades around the mood of the market. Yesterday the market came very close to our first top, with a theoretical Dow of 7418.

I for one watched President Obama and am a believer. I think he "gets it" and believe he is trying a truly unified and focused approach to solving a decade of greed. I'm saddened that the politics continues, the two sides fighting as if they are sides, when in reality, our situation is so dire that actions must be taken.

Nouriel Roubini, New York Stern Business School, considers the nationalization of banks much like what the Swedish did in the 1990's. "You take the banks over, clean them up, and you sell them in rapid order to the private sector."

During the Bush era the central bank "led the kind of government interference in the economy that was unprecedented. The central bank-supposed to be the lender of the last resort, yet they, without controls, became the lender of first resort." Roubini goes on to explain that Obama has little choice but to try to find ways to eliminate the toxic debt, as in "six months even firms that today look insolvent are going to become insolvent. Most of the national banks are going to look insolvent.


Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:

http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

No End to the Sell Off

The sell off does not end. By 3.00 p.m. yesterday the market had hit 7066, hitting new market lows. It never seems to stop. Nothing moves the market except FEAR. At this point, the FEAR is so rampant that nothing stops the downside, and the market is no longer breathing, but simply reacting.

After Madoff, comes Stanford, another slime:

"WASHINGTON - For years, there were red flags — so many they could have massed into a crimson blanket.

As with the Bernard Madoff case, the scandal surrounding billionaire R. Allen Stanford now seems clear and obvious in hindsight. Yet Stanford managed to run his alleged scheme even while the Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulators had him on their radar screens and investigated his businesses. Stanford wasn’t charged until last week.

From his tiny accounting firm’s office near a North London fish-and-chips shop to certificates of deposit promising outsized returns sold by a bank in Antigua, ample warning signs over the years suggested Stanford’s business wasn’t what it seemed."

The SEC must be held accountable, but of course, has not been. These are the same idiots that have strict day trading rules (25k minimum for pattern day traders must be in the holders account) , protecting the little guy from himself while allowing the big guys to fraud 58 billion, that we have found so far. There will be more.

All of our "regulations" in the past 8 years have been non existent, as Greenspan's Ayn Rand philosophy of market driven controls led the way. Many of us suspect the "first" 350 billion, that came through Paulson, and has been unaccounted for, literally may have been a pay off to Wall Street, and the bankers....at least that's what the conspiracists think, and more of their thinking, so extreme in the past, is beginning to make sense.

The following influenced the market's opening on Monday, as more talk of nationalization and "paying for my neighbor's mortgage" continued on the print and air waves.

How silly we are. Our banks have, through our own Federal lack of oversight, now been caught supplying false facts even to themselves to prop up the house of cards. We are at a point that our banks could truly fail, and that more and more homes could stand vacant, foreclosed, plummeting home values even more, but we have Republicans babbling and posturing to "let the Democrats" fail, perhaps at the expense of our country's financial system.

Where we stood Monday: with a recommendation to a new call for the day, the market opened up. Initially calls were not able to be purchased, as the market ended the longest cycle of downward pressure we've seen in years.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Watching the Market Breathe

Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock (BRKB), one of our largest Blue Chip Options (www.bluechipoptions.com) holdings is down 37% as of Friday, with the market hitting 8 year lows in Friday's trading, and dropping as low as a theoretical Dow of 7209. Traders were not able to get in on puts, as the market moved to quickly in downward cycle, unless day trading and following tight whipsaw patterns through the day, in which case .50 to .75 profits were available. Despite a market turnaround near the end of the trading day the market closed lower again, assimilating more and more bad news.

Some chartists see a doji in candlestick charts, others see support lines broken, new multiyear lows hit, and the fight between bulls and bears continues.

We have been "early" on three call recommendations now in three weeks, while profitable multiple times on put recommendations. This means our version of a "straddle" has been less effective, simply because the market has no turnaround or exhaustive gap up days, and no hesitancy in downward pressure.

Slimey banks like BOA and Citi may now have to be nationalized. Conservatives argue for "let the market run it's course and free enterprise validate itself." Liberals argue that a buy out of what has occurred is the only way out.

And, in the real end, no one knows, as we have entered "depression" territory, with new frauds being exposed daily, and example of where free enterprise capitalism fails without regulation, and with lobbying that corrupts our voting Congress.

Sigh. History is being made here. New all time lows in an 8 year period.

This makes it hard to trade anything. One subscriber wrote me several times during Friday's trading, waiting for the "bottom" and ready for a new call trade. Here's his dialogue to me:

"I feel good about my decision to stay away...I am a little disappointed that I didn't enter the position when the OEX hit the S3 level...I felt like that was a good place to enter (I could have got 7.70 on the 380 call and made 2 1/2 bucks))...but like you said...we are making new lows and who knows where we are going to stop...

I believe we are heading to the S&P 740 level...it seems like the market "needs" to test that low again...

After that, I am hoping for a large bull rally...what I don't understand is which index drives the market? Or neither of them do? I find it quite weird that you make DOW projections and are usually pretty accurate...which I translated as that the DOW action/support and resistance levels/ drives the market...but now it appears we went through the DOW lows but not the S&P lows...so maybe the S&P is running the show for now?

I don't know!!

What "sign" are you looking for exactly that would indicate the marker has turned around? How do we really know when the bottom testing is over?"


In the end, this trader did not day trade the calls, also a potential profit, in the afternoon rally. He's right that the S &P held more than the Dow (banking stocks), but may be wrong that the market is "ready to turn".
Most all of us want this, or see this over extended market and see no reason it has not. What we want and see to be right has not yet occurred.
This is what is important to realize: what should be is not relevant. What situations occur that are now logical are still situations that are not logical, and still occurred. It is what it is.
This is watching the market breathe.

Friday, February 20, 2009

February Epiraton...

February expiration day has been up 50% and down 50% of the time in the last six years, up 3, down 3. We saw the market moved from Dow lows of 7407 to a healthy run up at opening to 7650, and then more flat lining as the world "waits."

The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.

Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:

http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html

___________________


When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.

Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.

This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.

According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.

Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.

You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:


Hey Floyd...

As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...

God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.

I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...

He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...

He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...

And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:

Me to Him...

"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."

I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!

Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.

And Floyd's response:


This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.

It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.

I am proud of you.

And his response:

Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...

Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...

Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!

Thank you,
February expiration day has been up 50% and down 50% of the time in the last six years, up 3, down 3. We saw the market moved from Dow lows of 7407 to a healthy run up at opening to 7650, and then more flat lining as the world "waits."

The amount of news, opinions, and name calling in this entire stimulus package is astounding, as the newsbites alone influence each negative and spiral us further. The March 370P was profitable for up to 2.50 per contract, however, easy to buy on the market upswing, and easier to sell on the downswing.!!! A great day for the puts! And, our open March390C suffers, but note our stop loss date and hold if risk oriented. This is a market caught in FEAR that I've never seen before. We did notice in the 3 p.m hour that this March370P did LOSE value as the market crashed to 7400 again, which shows even put buyers are now hesitant.



Here's some good news! Our Dow Projection article has been out now 4 months and has been our most popular "add on" we've ever had. It's FREE to Level 3 and Advanced Mentoring students, available in the password protected area, and is now offered at 1/3 of it's original price. For $49 you can now learn EXACTLY how Floyd projects the Dow. OEX Options is one of the top five option advisory services in the U.S., according to Stocks and Commodities Readers Choice awards in 2008. There is something we are doing right! Check out the special below:

http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/OrderCalculatingTheDow.html



___________________




When it is said that all things happen for a reason, it may be true, but it is the "unreality of the reason" that makes it the most reason. In our infinite search we are learning more who we are, and what we have made ourselves.

Only when we learn that nothing is really real do we begin to see things as they are.

This is the most true in life. And will be what you argue most, but remember, a rock may not be hard. It is only hard because of our "facts", and we may not have all the facts.

According to psychologists and sleep specialists you will never see yourself die in a dream. Think about this. In your dream you may be in a prolonged high jeopardy situation, but within historical patterns of dream analysis you will not die. It is said that even in dreams the human ego remains too stubborn to admit to its mortality.

Recognizing that how you see yourself is a culmination of how you have had experiences, interpreted them, and "become" something is the most important Zen Trading rule you will gain. You do NOT know who you are.

You are actually not even what you think you are. No one is. Our reality is ONLY what we see it to be, not necessarily all, more or less than it is

Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy. Special RECESSION PRICING in effect. Check the URL link below for this offer.

Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at:http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html

Here's a great testimonial of what Advanced Mentoring and Floydian Therapy can offer, from a subscriber:


Hey Floyd...

As I've told you before, I am 2 1/2 years removed from a horrible addiction to pornography...

God has really brought me out of that and has done a mighty work through me...Now I want to give back and help others...At my church I run a recovery group...I also just started a recovery coaching ministry...where I use powerful questioning to help men move from where they are now to where they want to be...kind of like what you do, only our focus is a bit different.

I tell you this because I wanted to share with you about my recent client...

He has struggled with same sex attraction and he is a Mormon...Both of which I am against...and he knows that...

He wondered if his religion would hinder my willingness to work with him...

And I would say that last year...it would have been a problem since I do "Christian Coaching" and I most likely would have chosen to decline my services...but after working with you all this time...my response was quite the contrary...see below:

Me to Him...

"I'm sure that the doctrine of your church is quite different than the doctrine of my church. But you know what I've come to learn Kyle…we are all in a process here and I'm not going to talk about who is right and who is wrong etc…I am here to love you with the heart of Jesus and help you find your way. That is what I am called to do."

I told my wife what I wrote and she said that last year I would have tried to convert him and neither of us would have gotten anywhere!!

Your legacy lives on my friend!! Thank you.

And Floyd's response:


This is a superb lesson. The way to convert is to BE who you are, and let the person learn by watching and seeing you.

It's the story of Frank, my father in law, and how he led his life as a Christian.

I am proud of you.

And his response:

Floyd
Thank you for the encouragement my friend...I thought you would appreciate what I shared...

Now when I'm out and about, and I listen to all of the Obama haters (conservative radio or in church)...I just sit back and "HEAR" all of the rhetoric and nonsense that does nothing buy fuel emotions...there is no productive or solution based conversation...all arguments and finger pointing...last year...I would be chiming in on the conversation...now I just listen, smile and save my energy for more productive things...

Your service has paid off more for me personally than financially (only becuase I did not follow rules and took a big loss)...BUT I believe that is most important!! I would rather be poor and have quality character than rich and act like an ass!!

Thank you,