We recommend NOT holding any open option positions over the holiday weekend. We'll be back with you Monday evening with an alert.
Subscriber RV from Florida may sing what is happening best:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoHL8rrmIAQ
A few comments:
1. The Toyota mess has killed 89 people.
2. The BP mess may be destroying the world. Greed and lack of regulation is what caused this, not just BP. This has happened before, but in areas we would not know about.
3. The Iraqi war killed 100's of thousands.
Our perspectives are warped.
We spend more time on football than helping.
19% of NFL big boys get Alzheimers, some say. Duh. These are giant overweight men on steroids banging their heads into one another.
And a few more, because I'm excited and in the mood:
*Many Christians believe this is all in the Bible, what is happening. Although translated over 16,000 times, my suggestion to these Christians is party hard and fast if the world is ending, because half of the world thinks you are NUTS:)
*Finally the good guys are rewarded. Apple, which makes incredible products, suddenly has more cash value than Microsoft, which makes CRAP products (control alt delete) and virus filters for their own software. I feel somewhat vindicated that the good can win. It seldom happens.
*If any of you are stupid eoughf to think President Obama is adding to or creating the oil crisis you are really missing some logic brain cells. This is merely a Roveian play to take every advantage of a world disaster and play it out as if "the administration didn't do enough." It's enough to make you smile. The Republicans are simply trying to "oust the President." By not agreeing to anything they've stalled any form of growth or change.
*If you trust any of the mega banks in anything that they are doing, you need counsel, and if you trust any part of Congress with the lobbyist game, and think the Tea Party (or Obama, for that matter) will bring revolution and change.
*71% of all white people in the U.S. support the Arizona immigrations "rights to profile laws," a radically right wing movement. Human rights are being taken away.
Now as to the market: No-one would have bought puts yesterday a.m with futures up over 200 points,and our open call was profitable up to 104% by 2.45 p.m.
Although this has been an exhausting week in trading we have traded successfully, some traders write, during the whipsaw made up to 17 profitable day trades on both put and call during the whipsaw. Admittedly, this is the hardest market I have ever traded, one I think no one really understands right now, but some are making big dollars off these "bets on the swings."
Think of your trading this way. It is "bets on the swing" around a system that tells you where to buy and sell and to treat options like a fruit vendor.
Have a Great Memorial Day Week-End.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Full Moon Phases Always Affect the Market
It is a full moon tomorrow and this always affects the market. The Bond Market will close at 2 p.m. tomorrow and we will not offer any new trade, as we see volume at a minimum before the Memorial Day weekend.
We saw what happened yesterday. The market moved up, the market moved down, and would not hold above 10,000. Gold continued to climb. Oil still destroys our country, and the EU union may be in default.
And, Tea Partiers, Obama might not be an American citizen. Just to think, this rhetoric is more important than what is important. Do we know?
We recommend holding no open OEX positions over the holiday weekend, and will have our alerts out next Monday evening. You will receive a trade alert tomorrow, but it is meant to close any open positions.
Happy Holiday!
Blue Chip commentary this weekend to our subscribers at www.bluechiptopions.com will emphasize the corporatization of the world, where those who have the real cash assets, and those holding precious metals will benefit short term from how the stock market is going to change.
For those of you happy about the lower oil prices, open your eyes:
Rising Drilling Costs Mean $90 Crude in 2018: Energy Markets
By Grant Smith
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- The rising costs of extracting oil are propping up New York futures for the years ahead, even as prices sink for crude that will be delivered over the rest of this year.
The futures contract closest to delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled 13 percent in the past three months to below $70 a barrel as investors fled riskier assets and the December 2015 contract lost 5 percent. At the same time December 2018 futures remain above $90 a barrel, suggesting analysts are less pessimistic about the long term. The U.S. Labor Department’s index for oil- and gas-field machinery costs rose in April for the first time in six months.
“The price is holding at decent levels” for delivery in later years, said Paul Tossetti, an analyst in Dallas with consultants PFC Energy. “You need a certain level for all these high-priced resources that are coming on-stream, deepwater Gulf of Mexico, deepwater Brazil and the Canadian oil sands. That’s the dynamic part of the non-OPEC oil supply.”
The oil contract closest to delivery slumped to $64.24 a barrel on May 20, the lowest intra-day price since July 2009, on concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. Oil for July delivery was trading on Nymex at $69.38, up 0.6 percent, at 10:16 a.m. in Singapore.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained on May 24 its 2011 price forecast, even as it sliced its projection for the second half of this year by 18 percent. The U.S.Energy Information Administration said yesterday that oil prices will rise to $108 a barrel by 2020 as the global economy rebounds.
Non-OPEC Growth
Merrill estimated supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase 1.1 percent, to 52.1 million barrels a day this year. That follows 700,000 barrels a day last year, the biggest jump in five years. Non-OPEC countries produce about 60 percent of global output.
“The costs related to the oil industry, materials, equipment, actually increased,” said Andy Sommer, senior analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. “The back-end of the curve is supported by that.”
The Labor Department’s Index for U.S. oil and gas producers’ machinery costs rose 0.5 percent to 200.30 last month, its first increase since October.
“We also expect the market to remain relatively tight on solid emerging market fundamentals in 2011 and beyond, particularly in Asia,” Merrill’s head of commodities research Francisco Blanch said in the report. The bank said crude prices will average $85 a barrel next year.
Contango Persists
Oil futures for later delivery have been more expensive than immediate supplies since October 2008, a price structure known as contango that can indicate expectations for tighter supplies in future. The International Energy Agency forecast in a Nov. 10 report that global oil demand will grow 1 percent a year to reach 105 million barrels a day by 2030.
“Concerns over a Eurozone-centered debt crisis, and the Chinese economy, and U.S. financial regulations, have no impact on full-cycle production costs or on the medium-term view,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London. “And the medium-term view is one of global oil demand growth bumping into a mature supply base.”
We saw what happened yesterday. The market moved up, the market moved down, and would not hold above 10,000. Gold continued to climb. Oil still destroys our country, and the EU union may be in default.
And, Tea Partiers, Obama might not be an American citizen. Just to think, this rhetoric is more important than what is important. Do we know?
We recommend holding no open OEX positions over the holiday weekend, and will have our alerts out next Monday evening. You will receive a trade alert tomorrow, but it is meant to close any open positions.
Happy Holiday!
Blue Chip commentary this weekend to our subscribers at www.bluechiptopions.com will emphasize the corporatization of the world, where those who have the real cash assets, and those holding precious metals will benefit short term from how the stock market is going to change.
For those of you happy about the lower oil prices, open your eyes:
Rising Drilling Costs Mean $90 Crude in 2018: Energy Markets
By Grant Smith
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- The rising costs of extracting oil are propping up New York futures for the years ahead, even as prices sink for crude that will be delivered over the rest of this year.
The futures contract closest to delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled 13 percent in the past three months to below $70 a barrel as investors fled riskier assets and the December 2015 contract lost 5 percent. At the same time December 2018 futures remain above $90 a barrel, suggesting analysts are less pessimistic about the long term. The U.S. Labor Department’s index for oil- and gas-field machinery costs rose in April for the first time in six months.
“The price is holding at decent levels” for delivery in later years, said Paul Tossetti, an analyst in Dallas with consultants PFC Energy. “You need a certain level for all these high-priced resources that are coming on-stream, deepwater Gulf of Mexico, deepwater Brazil and the Canadian oil sands. That’s the dynamic part of the non-OPEC oil supply.”
The oil contract closest to delivery slumped to $64.24 a barrel on May 20, the lowest intra-day price since July 2009, on concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail the economic recovery. Oil for July delivery was trading on Nymex at $69.38, up 0.6 percent, at 10:16 a.m. in Singapore.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained on May 24 its 2011 price forecast, even as it sliced its projection for the second half of this year by 18 percent. The U.S.Energy Information Administration said yesterday that oil prices will rise to $108 a barrel by 2020 as the global economy rebounds.
Non-OPEC Growth
Merrill estimated supply from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase 1.1 percent, to 52.1 million barrels a day this year. That follows 700,000 barrels a day last year, the biggest jump in five years. Non-OPEC countries produce about 60 percent of global output.
“The costs related to the oil industry, materials, equipment, actually increased,” said Andy Sommer, senior analyst at EGL AG in Dietikon, Switzerland. “The back-end of the curve is supported by that.”
The Labor Department’s Index for U.S. oil and gas producers’ machinery costs rose 0.5 percent to 200.30 last month, its first increase since October.
“We also expect the market to remain relatively tight on solid emerging market fundamentals in 2011 and beyond, particularly in Asia,” Merrill’s head of commodities research Francisco Blanch said in the report. The bank said crude prices will average $85 a barrel next year.
Contango Persists
Oil futures for later delivery have been more expensive than immediate supplies since October 2008, a price structure known as contango that can indicate expectations for tighter supplies in future. The International Energy Agency forecast in a Nov. 10 report that global oil demand will grow 1 percent a year to reach 105 million barrels a day by 2030.
“Concerns over a Eurozone-centered debt crisis, and the Chinese economy, and U.S. financial regulations, have no impact on full-cycle production costs or on the medium-term view,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in London. “And the medium-term view is one of global oil demand growth bumping into a mature supply base.”
Monday, May 24, 2010
Corporations Control Us
Our Count is 12 to the put. ?????????? We can also see the option chain signal bias changing by the end of day upside on last Friday's wildly volatile swings.
This shows the most extreme of bell curves, and a whipsaw market that has moved back above 10,000 after hitting 9850 lows
The markets obviously continue on a sell cycle, but may be at this point so extreme that an upside gap could occur. Our Dow Projections are lengthy this week, covering over 1000 points, and remember we Twitter each day with new support/resistance lines and pivot when the market moves 100 points. Recently we can't keep up :)
We are contrarian to the downside for the short term, and continue to see an upside, in stages, leading the market to over 10,550 on the Dow and higher. We also believe the upside will not last, and are providing very specific instruction to our Blue Chip subscribers. www.bluechipoptions.com
The reaction to BP is indicative of what we believe of Free Enterprise, and proof of our ongoing discussions that we as a world are really no more nations, as actual corporations control us.
We will list both put and call, and define to watch futures carefully. Both of our open issues were available to our system rules, or already held. Nothing could surprise us in an electronically traded market with few controls, similar to the BP Oil Rig. "Oops, we didn't think of that" we expect only of our average people, and both regulation, oversight, and penalty could be law that controls both the stock market, and oil.
The craziness of the market, the sadness of this oil spill. Our lack of forethought on both. People feeling the emotion this week of losing ALL of their 2009 gains in a simple week in all of their holdings, only to see slight rebound, and to here nothing but dire news.
This shows the most extreme of bell curves, and a whipsaw market that has moved back above 10,000 after hitting 9850 lows
The markets obviously continue on a sell cycle, but may be at this point so extreme that an upside gap could occur. Our Dow Projections are lengthy this week, covering over 1000 points, and remember we Twitter each day with new support/resistance lines and pivot when the market moves 100 points. Recently we can't keep up :)
We are contrarian to the downside for the short term, and continue to see an upside, in stages, leading the market to over 10,550 on the Dow and higher. We also believe the upside will not last, and are providing very specific instruction to our Blue Chip subscribers. www.bluechipoptions.com
The reaction to BP is indicative of what we believe of Free Enterprise, and proof of our ongoing discussions that we as a world are really no more nations, as actual corporations control us.
We will list both put and call, and define to watch futures carefully. Both of our open issues were available to our system rules, or already held. Nothing could surprise us in an electronically traded market with few controls, similar to the BP Oil Rig. "Oops, we didn't think of that" we expect only of our average people, and both regulation, oversight, and penalty could be law that controls both the stock market, and oil.
The craziness of the market, the sadness of this oil spill. Our lack of forethought on both. People feeling the emotion this week of losing ALL of their 2009 gains in a simple week in all of their holdings, only to see slight rebound, and to here nothing but dire news.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
A Distinct Bottom
The market hit lows of 10,047 by early afternoon, a distinct bottom in our Dow projections. Further downside puts us back to the correction we first dealt with, and confirms those that believe the "crash" would surface again.
Others believe that the volatility is often caused by electronic trading, what may be the end of Wall Street and stock trading as we know it.
At OEX and our sister site www.bluechipoptions.com we remain bullish on this market short term, and believe much of what we are seeing in this correction is based on technical fear, and lack of controls. We're surprised the market hit these lows, and our put recommendation yesterday was HIGHLY profitable to any of our subscribers (and we have many) that "break my rule" of never buying above prior day close. Traders were able to do this all day long, and to play the call, and day trading was astonishing, with some traders moving in and out numerous times.
We hold an OTM call, and will hold it. Those following the rules did not play the put yesterday, and a 300 point move in a day should be concerning not by the amount of decline, but the reason for the decline.
We'll offer a day trade on the put as a new signal, but watch futures carefully before entry. Retracement may well occur from the bottoms.
You will see a new banner on our homepage for Centerpointe Research. This is not a paid advertisement, but my promoting the meditation tapes that help with alpha/beta/theta sound waves that I mention often in the OEX Manual. Take the time to click on Centerpointe and learn their unique method of training the mind to meditate.
Others believe that the volatility is often caused by electronic trading, what may be the end of Wall Street and stock trading as we know it.
At OEX and our sister site www.bluechipoptions.com we remain bullish on this market short term, and believe much of what we are seeing in this correction is based on technical fear, and lack of controls. We're surprised the market hit these lows, and our put recommendation yesterday was HIGHLY profitable to any of our subscribers (and we have many) that "break my rule" of never buying above prior day close. Traders were able to do this all day long, and to play the call, and day trading was astonishing, with some traders moving in and out numerous times.
We hold an OTM call, and will hold it. Those following the rules did not play the put yesterday, and a 300 point move in a day should be concerning not by the amount of decline, but the reason for the decline.
We'll offer a day trade on the put as a new signal, but watch futures carefully before entry. Retracement may well occur from the bottoms.
You will see a new banner on our homepage for Centerpointe Research. This is not a paid advertisement, but my promoting the meditation tapes that help with alpha/beta/theta sound waves that I mention often in the OEX Manual. Take the time to click on Centerpointe and learn their unique method of training the mind to meditate.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
A Nation on EDGE
Yesterday the market opened and dropped to a theoretical Dow bottom of 10,284 before beginning to hesitate, and move up to highs of 10,573 by early afternoon.....to fall again to 10,350.....to rise again....by noon we had great profits on our June450Put selling to highs of 5.50. We traded this put earlier this week, buying as low as 2.95 and selling to 4.40. We're at the same juncture now with a two buy made to the call, and profits today on the put from 2.95 lows to 5.50. Only traders that held the put from earlier this week could take these profits, but tight .50 day trade profits were possible several times during the day as the market whipsawed.
Only when the FOMC announced that "free money" was continuing and the fears of inflation abating did the market actually stop its freefall.
This is a battle of false facts. America is FEARFUL of Europe, Europe is FEARFUL of what they have wrought, and oil streams around our shores.
We are a nation on an "edge." This shows classically in the market, with the massive whipsaws to an overall 10% correction. And, as you know, I believe it became 10% because the market rose too quickly, things got "better" too fast, and VIX fell to all time lows of complacency.
The market is now "the world" and the instantaneous news fills our moods, while electronic trading consumes our market.
Only when the FOMC announced that "free money" was continuing and the fears of inflation abating did the market actually stop its freefall.
This is a battle of false facts. America is FEARFUL of Europe, Europe is FEARFUL of what they have wrought, and oil streams around our shores.
We are a nation on an "edge." This shows classically in the market, with the massive whipsaws to an overall 10% correction. And, as you know, I believe it became 10% because the market rose too quickly, things got "better" too fast, and VIX fell to all time lows of complacency.
The market is now "the world" and the instantaneous news fills our moods, while electronic trading consumes our market.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Wall Street Lives in FEAR
Wall Street lives in FEAR that Europe will drag the world back into recession. Oil is declining in price while precious oil spills out,and it's summer, time of hurricanes and higher prices. Gold hits highs. Conjecture is rampant. 1280 we still see as PNF estimate as a top, but prices rising dramatically by fall, and silver following it.
Calls were profitable for those that owned them from yesterday, rising from 2.95 to 3.20 average buys to highs of 4.50 in early morning trading. Puts were also possible for profits!
OEX JUN 2010 450.0000 PUT. This was an easy buy as low as 2.95 with sales to 3.30 by 2.00 p.m.
I thought you would be interested in the following story on WSJ.com.
Crude Slides to a 2010 Low
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315404575250001857807896.html
Most bulls see upside targets of 10,753, 10,990, and 11,030. Market moves were hesitant all of 5/18 thru 2 p.m. with bounces above and below the pivot. The market tried lows again in the 3 p.m. hour but held in the same whipsaw.
Most trading analysts see more significant lows potentially taking place through May, while others analysts continue to see an 11,000 run before more downside.
Calls were profitable for those that owned them from yesterday, rising from 2.95 to 3.20 average buys to highs of 4.50 in early morning trading. Puts were also possible for profits!
OEX JUN 2010 450.0000 PUT. This was an easy buy as low as 2.95 with sales to 3.30 by 2.00 p.m.
I thought you would be interested in the following story on WSJ.com.
Crude Slides to a 2010 Low
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315404575250001857807896.html
Most bulls see upside targets of 10,753, 10,990, and 11,030. Market moves were hesitant all of 5/18 thru 2 p.m. with bounces above and below the pivot. The market tried lows again in the 3 p.m. hour but held in the same whipsaw.
Most trading analysts see more significant lows potentially taking place through May, while others analysts continue to see an 11,000 run before more downside.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Pressure of Fear
Yesterday was Floyd's form of perfect trading. The market hit theoretical Dow lows of 10,396, only to reverse to 10,600 by 2.47 p.m.
This allowed us profits on both the put and call that were recommended this morning. Here's a note from MS, a new Advanced Mentoring student:
"Today's going well so far. Picked up the put at 3.30 and sold to 4.40. Then bought the call for 3.2"
I did not hear back from MS but even the 3.20 buy on the call showed a profit, and some traders bought two buys as the market bottomed and were able to trade the call with highs of 3.90 and lows of 2.95.
The market may be bottoming, or may have another run to 10,121 to give us all the chills, but we think the next moves are up, and enough to "relieve pressure" of FEAR, for the short term.
No chart concludes this, as actually only PNF charts right now give any clarity by showing former support and resistance lines.
Remember this as the talking heads talk.
There will be more debt. There will be a higher unemployment rate. The large companies will thrive, as they are now. Republicans, Democrats, and all of us can sit back and realize we are now really run by corporations, as we have just so painfully learned in the Gulf of Mexico.
This allowed us profits on both the put and call that were recommended this morning. Here's a note from MS, a new Advanced Mentoring student:
"Today's going well so far. Picked up the put at 3.30 and sold to 4.40. Then bought the call for 3.2"
I did not hear back from MS but even the 3.20 buy on the call showed a profit, and some traders bought two buys as the market bottomed and were able to trade the call with highs of 3.90 and lows of 2.95.
The market may be bottoming, or may have another run to 10,121 to give us all the chills, but we think the next moves are up, and enough to "relieve pressure" of FEAR, for the short term.
No chart concludes this, as actually only PNF charts right now give any clarity by showing former support and resistance lines.
Remember this as the talking heads talk.
There will be more debt. There will be a higher unemployment rate. The large companies will thrive, as they are now. Republicans, Democrats, and all of us can sit back and realize we are now really run by corporations, as we have just so painfully learned in the Gulf of Mexico.
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