By 10.30 a.m. the market had moved down 50 points. We continue to see with the market struggles that there appears to be no strong correction, but instead a mild one.
It's not yet time to buy stocks, as we tell our www.bluechipoptions.com subscribers, although Gold and Silver hold steady. We'd like to see the Dow close about 10,260 to begin buying again, for what we think will be more upside.
By late afternoon we were down over 100 points and right again struggling at major resistance lines. We are able to buy entry to our new call at 5.50 to 6.30, and remain bullish for the short term.
We'll stay with open calls, no puts, and close our eyes a few days.
________________
Can you blame investors for being blase, with bulls barely buying, and bears barely selling?
How much economic woe is already priced into equities? This is a key question, one that we are studying at www.bluechipoptions.com
Often the market pre-prices itself in advance of an FOMC announcement, but Bernanke's "truths" last Friday make us question if "woe or fear" is already priced in, or if we must repeat recession history.
With news-bytes conjecture as to our demise is imminent.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
A Market of Reversals
This is a market of reversals. When Bernanke spoke, admitted the economy sucked, and told us he would create more money to put in the system, we rushed in GREED and euphoria and moved the market up 164 points for the day. This from us, the nation now so worried about the debt we have.
The market went right to our theoretical Dow top at 10,200 and held. Our OTM call stayed steady and remains open. We continue to see a potential upside to 10,416 and will recommend a one side trade only to start the week, again to the call.
In this case we will only trade if we are not chasing the call up. Follow instructions carefully or do not trade, and if futures are extreme, take prudent risk.
Want to understand our use of the theoretical Dow?
Study:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/theoreticaldowjonesindex.asp
To calculate, it's simple. Add + or - 40 points to the actual Dow closing and you'll have a close approximation or enter into your trading software.
The market went right to our theoretical Dow top at 10,200 and held. Our OTM call stayed steady and remains open. We continue to see a potential upside to 10,416 and will recommend a one side trade only to start the week, again to the call.
In this case we will only trade if we are not chasing the call up. Follow instructions carefully or do not trade, and if futures are extreme, take prudent risk.
Want to understand our use of the theoretical Dow?
Study:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/theoreticaldowjonesindex.asp
To calculate, it's simple. Add + or - 40 points to the actual Dow closing and you'll have a close approximation or enter into your trading software.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Bulk Buying and Selling have Begun
By 2.15 p.m. we had simply repeated yesterday. It's important to know the market mood before the 3 pm clamor. We'd hit a high of 10,144 and a low of 9952, literally repeating yesterdays support and resistance lines. As I begin to write the alert today we're seeing a sudden 60 point downswing, within a minute. I've noticed 40 point jumps in just seconds, up and down, a number of times, a sign of bulk buying/selling and institutional moves, or electronic moves.
We continue to believe if there is more bottom it will not last long, and the doomsayers will be babbling as the market short term rallys, with the same 10,200 and 10,400 range resistance area stops.
By mid afternoon our 500 Call had moved only to a high of 2.50, and the 490 Put was a great play, buying under prior day at 4.60 and selling to 6.60 by late afternoon. The market is struggling to know itself, and VIX is fluctuating.
Most traders sold the put off profitably despite a trade range bound market. We'll hold the call as a hedge, keeping track of our past profits, and watch what's next in the topsy turvy world of finance.
____________________
On our homepage www.oexoptions.com we list an area of books we recommend, which you can order from Amazon right there. We believe all traders should read Dorsey's Point and Figure book at least three times, and begin charting with any of the online pnf charting services. www.stockcharts.com is excellent and even has a tutorial of point and figure.
In our password area on the website are many Floyd videos. Take the time to watch. I've got some great news-bytes of special tips, and try to explain what we do and how we trade.
We continue to believe if there is more bottom it will not last long, and the doomsayers will be babbling as the market short term rallys, with the same 10,200 and 10,400 range resistance area stops.
By mid afternoon our 500 Call had moved only to a high of 2.50, and the 490 Put was a great play, buying under prior day at 4.60 and selling to 6.60 by late afternoon. The market is struggling to know itself, and VIX is fluctuating.
Most traders sold the put off profitably despite a trade range bound market. We'll hold the call as a hedge, keeping track of our past profits, and watch what's next in the topsy turvy world of finance.
____________________
On our homepage www.oexoptions.com we list an area of books we recommend, which you can order from Amazon right there. We believe all traders should read Dorsey's Point and Figure book at least three times, and begin charting with any of the online pnf charting services. www.stockcharts.com is excellent and even has a tutorial of point and figure.
In our password area on the website are many Floyd videos. Take the time to watch. I've got some great news-bytes of special tips, and try to explain what we do and how we trade.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
We Do Not Know
What a quandary. The world is ending, or there will be an upside. That's what yesterday's trading showed, with a theoretical Dow low of 9898, a respectable "stopping point," and a afternoon resurgence to 10,114, just enough swing to keep the market struggling above 10,000, right at resistance lines.
If upside, watch 10,212 to 10,450 as tops and play the call we own accordingly.
We made money on the put yesterday, but trading was very light. While the market "bounces" like this take tight profits and exit quickly. True of both signals, and true most because our bell curve has no bias. It shifts daily from a 6 to call, 6 to put, to a zero bias. Gold, oil and equities are all showing equal averages, an unusual event.
We'd like to take tight profits, and move to another signal to the bias, but right now there is no safe bet, or even a bet that we can understand.
And the average investor is leaving equities by leaps and bounds.
______________________
Over the weekend the leader of Wikileaki Land was wanted in Sweden for "rape and molestation." Within an hour a news-byte said charges were dropped. This is what I a Roveian Technique.
Karl Rove got George elected twice on dirty tricks, and making people question facts that are true. (Obama is a Musllim, the leader of horrible Wikileaki a rapist, and THERE).....the first false fact out is always the one that gets the news hit and is what is remembered. Perhaps instead the leader of Wikileaks is someone that will later be revered and the lead person that changed journalism.
We do not know.
We do know that what he is doing is radical, and everyone will have an opinion. But this week-end was good stock market lesson-the first news-byte is what got the "hit." Someone is really worried about Wikileaks to create this subterfuge.
If upside, watch 10,212 to 10,450 as tops and play the call we own accordingly.
We made money on the put yesterday, but trading was very light. While the market "bounces" like this take tight profits and exit quickly. True of both signals, and true most because our bell curve has no bias. It shifts daily from a 6 to call, 6 to put, to a zero bias. Gold, oil and equities are all showing equal averages, an unusual event.
We'd like to take tight profits, and move to another signal to the bias, but right now there is no safe bet, or even a bet that we can understand.
And the average investor is leaving equities by leaps and bounds.
______________________
Over the weekend the leader of Wikileaki Land was wanted in Sweden for "rape and molestation." Within an hour a news-byte said charges were dropped. This is what I a Roveian Technique.
Karl Rove got George elected twice on dirty tricks, and making people question facts that are true. (Obama is a Musllim, the leader of horrible Wikileaki a rapist, and THERE).....the first false fact out is always the one that gets the news hit and is what is remembered. Perhaps instead the leader of Wikileaks is someone that will later be revered and the lead person that changed journalism.
We do not know.
We do know that what he is doing is radical, and everyone will have an opinion. But this week-end was good stock market lesson-the first news-byte is what got the "hit." Someone is really worried about Wikileaks to create this subterfuge.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
The World is Rotted in Fear and Hate
First, it is this division, this hatred, this confusion that is influencing our market: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/russell-simmons/the-sacred-ground-of-deep_b_691001.html
Please take the time to read this article as it shows the hatred and false facts that have created the insurgency of confusion, and made us a fully divided nation.
It is partly this mass mesmerism that took the market to new bottoms yesterday, simply because so many traders and people had taught themselves to believe what is supposed to happen.
Futures showed downturn prior to opening, so no new signal to the call was taken, but a second buy was. We see our call as a good contrarian move, as.....
We are at a turning point. The market hit a significant bottom at the theoretical Dow low of 9951 yesterday. As you study our Dow projections it's the first step down to a negative progression, but can also be a short term bottom with upside back to midlevel Dow projections at 10,400 area. This market scares everyone to trade, and people are running out, going to cash, afraid of equities.
It should make it a strong time for OEX Options, as we've seen with our profits this past month.
Thusly, the call you own may surprise everyone, and suddenly be hugely profitable, AND because the market moved back above 10,000 and held, barely.
Gold hold steady, Silver rose, and the rush to safe U.S. paper bonds, TLT, etc, rose, as yields fell.
The world is rotted in fear and hate. We are a serious turning point.
________________________
Edgar Cayce, the spiritualist, once predicted a time would come in the world (what some mistakenly think is the Apocalypse) in which so much change would come that the world would have a final decision to make:
1. Work with one another, and build harmony. Do what is right
or
2. Create a world of oligarchs and peasants, and lead us down more ultimate levels of self destruction of ourselves, and our earth.
Hmm.
Whatever you believe here, I do believe we are at one of the greatest turning points of all time. Everything seems up for stake, from what the value of currency is, to what is right and wrong, to where bi-partnership has folded to the ground and our silly Congress gives themselves more money, we let them, and no bills can pass. There is such hatred and intent to destroy, to "get back" that we see a nation paralyzed, and jobless.
And worldwide we see economic, environmental, and emotional dis-order. Communism spreading in Central and South America, Israel the warriors ready to declare nuclear war on Iran, and our taxes are going up.
We print money.
We think Obama is a Muslim. 23% of us.
Our educational levels are at all time lows.
We appear to not be a nation of power, but of confusion.
This influences the stock market as no one believes anything. We rush out of equities while others buy up what they see are undervalued equities.
Please take the time to read this article as it shows the hatred and false facts that have created the insurgency of confusion, and made us a fully divided nation.
It is partly this mass mesmerism that took the market to new bottoms yesterday, simply because so many traders and people had taught themselves to believe what is supposed to happen.
Futures showed downturn prior to opening, so no new signal to the call was taken, but a second buy was. We see our call as a good contrarian move, as.....
We are at a turning point. The market hit a significant bottom at the theoretical Dow low of 9951 yesterday. As you study our Dow projections it's the first step down to a negative progression, but can also be a short term bottom with upside back to midlevel Dow projections at 10,400 area. This market scares everyone to trade, and people are running out, going to cash, afraid of equities.
It should make it a strong time for OEX Options, as we've seen with our profits this past month.
Thusly, the call you own may surprise everyone, and suddenly be hugely profitable, AND because the market moved back above 10,000 and held, barely.
Gold hold steady, Silver rose, and the rush to safe U.S. paper bonds, TLT, etc, rose, as yields fell.
The world is rotted in fear and hate. We are a serious turning point.
________________________
Edgar Cayce, the spiritualist, once predicted a time would come in the world (what some mistakenly think is the Apocalypse) in which so much change would come that the world would have a final decision to make:
1. Work with one another, and build harmony. Do what is right
or
2. Create a world of oligarchs and peasants, and lead us down more ultimate levels of self destruction of ourselves, and our earth.
Hmm.
Whatever you believe here, I do believe we are at one of the greatest turning points of all time. Everything seems up for stake, from what the value of currency is, to what is right and wrong, to where bi-partnership has folded to the ground and our silly Congress gives themselves more money, we let them, and no bills can pass. There is such hatred and intent to destroy, to "get back" that we see a nation paralyzed, and jobless.
And worldwide we see economic, environmental, and emotional dis-order. Communism spreading in Central and South America, Israel the warriors ready to declare nuclear war on Iran, and our taxes are going up.
We print money.
We think Obama is a Muslim. 23% of us.
Our educational levels are at all time lows.
We appear to not be a nation of power, but of confusion.
This influences the stock market as no one believes anything. We rush out of equities while others buy up what they see are undervalued equities.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
It's Analagous to Becoming a Surgeon
Soooo........the market starts with flat futures so we have no idea what could happen. Then it opens and moves to theoretical Dow highs of 10,345 and lows of 10,151, all before 1 p.m.
Minor whipsaw continues to move back and forth and keep market hovering at 10,200 level for hours........all of this again pointing to a trading range,and light volume, and no further testing of lows.
The market remains at a zero count, meaning the bell curve shows no strong bias. We suggest another buying spree may be imminent, to Dow tops as we project, and leading to more downturn.
But, the market may have to hit 10,000 for this to happen.
We will stick with the call.
_______________________
Lets' repeat the key rules of the game:
*Pick an allocation you are ready to lose
*Whenever you win hide 10% or more far away
*Choose an investment % goal (% of profit)
*Have no more than two trades open at one time.
*If you cannot afford a "double buy" do not trade issues that are defined as perhaps requiring it.
*Use the Dow Projections and Pivot/support/resistance lines as a science
*View only with point and figure charts. Become adept.
*Keep a journal of your trades. Learn your emotions and above all, if not making money, or new to the service: REAL TIME PAPER TRADE 90 DAYS.
You are learning how to become a surgeon. It's not easy; it takes time and commitment.
Minor whipsaw continues to move back and forth and keep market hovering at 10,200 level for hours........all of this again pointing to a trading range,and light volume, and no further testing of lows.
The market remains at a zero count, meaning the bell curve shows no strong bias. We suggest another buying spree may be imminent, to Dow tops as we project, and leading to more downturn.
But, the market may have to hit 10,000 for this to happen.
We will stick with the call.
_______________________
Lets' repeat the key rules of the game:
*Pick an allocation you are ready to lose
*Whenever you win hide 10% or more far away
*Choose an investment % goal (% of profit)
*Have no more than two trades open at one time.
*If you cannot afford a "double buy" do not trade issues that are defined as perhaps requiring it.
*Use the Dow Projections and Pivot/support/resistance lines as a science
*View only with point and figure charts. Become adept.
*Keep a journal of your trades. Learn your emotions and above all, if not making money, or new to the service: REAL TIME PAPER TRADE 90 DAYS.
You are learning how to become a surgeon. It's not easy; it takes time and commitment.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Little Free Enterprise Left
Friday we had no new or open trades, and ended the week profitable each day we traded, typically form 22 to 50%. We've now had only one loss in the last 25 trades.
The market chartists led us again with announcements showing their opinion of the world markets, yet again based on just that day's performance, and typically disregarding opinions they may have offered two days before. This is not a criticism of fundamental chartists; instead, it is a statement that we do not believe the market is long-term chartable and we are in "new territory" with the electronic flash second trading now pervading the world. Any news bite can influence.
Our Dow Projections listed below continue from last week as we are hitting 100% on our support and resistance lines and market "stops." Friday we started from a theoretical Dow high of 10,304 to a a low of 10,107.
The area between 10,050 and 10,118 are strong support areas, where the market "decides" whether to have FEAR reign, and move back to 9800 area, or lower, and begin a "bad fall," as many predict, OR we are near a bottom that with any 100+ rise that holds could turn the market around short term to a short bull run. We think this has the highest chance of occurrence this week, perhaps even today.
The American Public is again showed as stupid and fat, as 23% believe Obama is a Muslim, and 24% believe he is not an American. The complete illogic of this shows that the Roveian propaganda is again working. We honestly believe completely false things, and cannot be made to believe the truth.
I emphasize this as sarcastically as I can, as our nation is being led not by Obama false facts (although there are plenty) but by Roveian false facts that create fear and argue for entitlement, that taxation is a Democrats issue, and support of free enterprise the Republicans. It is actually the reverse.
And, we have little free enterprise left.
The market chartists led us again with announcements showing their opinion of the world markets, yet again based on just that day's performance, and typically disregarding opinions they may have offered two days before. This is not a criticism of fundamental chartists; instead, it is a statement that we do not believe the market is long-term chartable and we are in "new territory" with the electronic flash second trading now pervading the world. Any news bite can influence.
Our Dow Projections listed below continue from last week as we are hitting 100% on our support and resistance lines and market "stops." Friday we started from a theoretical Dow high of 10,304 to a a low of 10,107.
The area between 10,050 and 10,118 are strong support areas, where the market "decides" whether to have FEAR reign, and move back to 9800 area, or lower, and begin a "bad fall," as many predict, OR we are near a bottom that with any 100+ rise that holds could turn the market around short term to a short bull run. We think this has the highest chance of occurrence this week, perhaps even today.
The American Public is again showed as stupid and fat, as 23% believe Obama is a Muslim, and 24% believe he is not an American. The complete illogic of this shows that the Roveian propaganda is again working. We honestly believe completely false things, and cannot be made to believe the truth.
I emphasize this as sarcastically as I can, as our nation is being led not by Obama false facts (although there are plenty) but by Roveian false facts that create fear and argue for entitlement, that taxation is a Democrats issue, and support of free enterprise the Republicans. It is actually the reverse.
And, we have little free enterprise left.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)