Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Bernanke Babbled - Oil Dropped

Bernanke babbled, oil dropped, and the world is better. It's fun to watch. The market moved to a bottom test again at 11,134, and hit tops of 11,430. Traders reported excellent profits on our pre market recommendation of the July570C, which was available as low as 10.00, selling to highs of 17.00, simply by watching our Dow bottoms and entering on the morning downside.

Puts of course were profitable, but only for traders still holding partials, or able to follow the falling knife.

We believe, barring oil disaster or economic idiocy, that the market may now short term trend to the upside, hitting Dow tops at 11,650 amidst whipsaw struggles to the upside. Nothing is better, our economy is truly in the toliet, and we're watching politicians argue on whether to drill for oil (would take 10 years to see results, and no refineries are even built to process new oil, but it "sounds good"). Nothing has inherently changed with an upsurge, and it's part of why we sold out much of our Blue Chip stock holdings at 14,100 a few months ago, when noone could imagine downside.

Upside could easily be muted, with whipsaw and bottom tests again. We'll lead with a trade to the call, but make clear notice that the market remains high risk.

My goal is to make memories, and to influence people. Many of my rants are designed to stimulate your thinking, and to make you QUESTION facts. Learn YOU. The emotions of the trade are far more important than the technical facts.

From TP on memories:


"I have told people that for years and never have I ever heard anyone say it. Making memories takes understanding that is deep. I was an actor in the west coast renaissance faire for almost 10 years. I learned how to play, something I didn't know until I met people that knew how to play. That's when I decided to coin the phrase "I am just making memories". I think that when I am alone and old maybe I can pull these memories out of my pocket and be nourished with happiness. Its like not having any regrets because no hesitation took place and the lesson was learned.

I see that the lesson you provide around us being able to read the market is the objective, not the money that we will make. Thank you Floyd. The calls were wrong and I have made good money on puts as well over the last 4 trading days. :) I still have more to learn."


From JE on Advanced Mentoring:

"Floyd, thanks. The psychology tests and your in depth in my face analysis of why I choose to fail, and when I choose to succeed, has been hugely advantageous to me. I've gained more personally I think at times than financially, but this year has been incredible. I"m up 38% ytd on OEX trades, trading 3 to 4 times a week, and up over 50% on Blue Chip trades."

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