Thursday, November 5, 2009

Lead to the Call

The market is almost stuck in a pose. A 9968 high by mid day, and lows by 3.45 that shocked the market. We were not sure of this whipsaw, thus no dual trades. We had no open signal, as with the FED announcement and the confusion to the count was not clear on bias.
Some of the work that Trader Bill is doing shows this, and when the market fluctuates as it has with these swings, is something than overbought/oversold, or just plain feverish?

November begins the Dow's "best six months" historically. We are also at a turning point in the market with all time highs having been reached in a very short time. Being prudent on upside is paramount.
So we'll help you review the thinking and facts that got us in this mess. A rock is not hard.

*10.6^% drop in the U.S. Weekday newpaper circulation, pushing us to soundbites and "blogs"
*GMAC has asked for another 2.8 to 5.6 billion
*Only 2 million people worldwide, including online and overseas subscribers exist now for the Wall Street Journal, Barrons.
*Tomorrow unemployment, non farm report, should show a drop to about 175,000. A drop below 200,000 would indicate the economic recovery is on track; others report we will come in at 9.9%.
(Floydian theory: unemployment will stay at 10% for several years in the "new America".
*One of the lead dogs of Pepsi unloaded a lot of inside shares early last week. Wonder what it means?

And a quote of great value: "A number of financial institutions are quietly becoming overcapitalized through regulatory fiat, as well as through massive earnings leverage from the yield curve, the latter of which rarely fails as a leading indicator of economic growth"-Jeffrey Bronchick, RCB Investment Strategy Letter

We'll close with a signal lead to the call, but with caution. Often after the FEDS announce, and the immediate euphoria passes, there is a reaction in the market.

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