Friday, October 22, 2010

The Death Cross

We went right to our market tops at 11,243.00 and hesitated, the market then moving down to 11,050 by 2.11 p.m.

We took no new position yesterday for this very reason, as we thought the market was topping. For those that had or took ownership in the November 510 Put, they were able to buy as low as $3.00 and sell to highs of $4.90 by 2.14 p.m.
We've hit profits every day this week. And we've seen the market hit bottoms near 11,890 and return to over 11,000.

The market has three characteristics:

1. It wants to go to 11,450
2. It is oversold and wants to correct, near the Fib line at 10,746. The low of 10,890 we hit earlier this week MAY have been our correction, or we may move to 11,746 again, before more upside to the 11,450 area.
3. The USD and lowering of Gold and Silver yesterday could prime the market, either way.

Here's facts:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAV5HJsm6pWs&pos=1

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France and Central Bank governors of G-20 meet in Seoul for womanizing and illegal drug use in advance of the G-20 meeting next month. This is a Floydian quote.

Judging how the G-20 thinks, a bit of womanizing and illegal drug use might be helpful.
A good example of charting and the crap that it makes us believe:
1. Three months ago we were under the "death cross," in which the major indices 50 day moving average slips below the 200 day moving average, a somehow foreboding sign.
2. So instead the market gave us a great "gold cross" in which the 50 day moving average climbed above the 200 day moving average.

What we can learn here is that charting terminology like this, although creating FEAR or GREED, are far more descriptive than predictive. The Dow has risen over 15% since all the talking heads began talking about the Death Cross.

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