Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Strategy for Both Signals

The market hit theoretical Dow tops of 11,314 by 1 p.m., and bottoms of 11,149. Traders that took entry to both our new positions were able before 1 p.m. to buy our November 545 Call below prior day close to 2.70. The higher risk and more in the money December 540P was also available below prior day close to 14.60.

Follow our directions within open signals carefully. Take tight profits either direction, and be prepared for second buys. The market is trade range oriented, waiting for a "news byte" to trigger movement.

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Crude had come near highs, and Gold and Silver have hit highs. This is partly manipulation, partly fear, and mostly greed. It smells of caution.

Our economy looks better, but last week showed a 2.2% pullback, the worst week in three months. Company insiders have been selling into the rally.

Even with that said we see a Dow top of 10,786 by year end, with whipsaw and breakdown struggling at specific Support and Resistance lines.


Current Signals:
Open Signal:

Strategy for both signals:

1. Do not trade the opposing position if futures are plus or minus 70 points.
2. If futures are volatile or flat place a first buy to either position on any movement 10% or more below prior day close.
3. Expect a larger second buy on both entries.
4. Use stop loss of # days, changing to new start date if a second buy is made.
5. Sell to Dow or Support or Resistance Lines or for up to 40% each

Risk: Puts may have hit their downside, or will soon and this is an expensive ITM option. We are afraid OTM issues will lose value too quickly.
Calls are OTM and have a long way up. Value will diminish quickly.

With market conditions showing a week of downside, we believe we will not close under 11, 050 and may hold at current rates, and that there is more to this bear run rally coming.

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