Today or tomorrow historically may show a market low. Yesterday, historically, would have showed a market move up. Thusly the market low may have occurred yesterday, as the market moved to 8380 as a low, near where we think the bottom is. Our OTM puts were profitable to .70, but only for traders willing to pay above prior day close.
We have two buys in the call, and will hold.
For any of you that watched Emperor Bush in his final news conference, or that did not watch it, take the time to review this. Everything that is wrong was outlined in this man's arrogance.
There is nothing but bad news at this juncture, and the world now lives in fear. This week will have many reduced earnings from corporations, and may continue downslide, although we see a shifting market around the inauguration.
We are profitable at OEX Options because we trade only the short term, not the longer term, and because we do not believe most facts. What Floyd has called "false facts" for years is now a sad and truthful reality.
President Obama will have a short window of time to create faith and order. With unemployment at all time highs, and only worsening, each sector can be hurt. And if oil falls further, it is bad news, not good.
Amidst this all Floyd continues to believe we will have two way swings, with upside remaining a short term potential.
---------------------------------
Floydian Therapy:
If we are not happy, we must know why. Most people spend their lives doing what they do not want, and wonder why they are unhappy. The key psychological question I ask of clients is this: What do you want?
Most answer with "things" or possessions, a simplistic answer that breeds the "I want what I want when I want it" thinking, and leads to possessions, which really make no one happy.
A man came to me years ago and I asked this question. He was a 40 year highly successful engineer in industrial plastics, married, no kids. His wife worked. After months of therapy my "what do you want" question led to a "real answer"...I want to be a guy that sells lawn chairs and stuff on a beach, and to work on the beach all day. "I want to be a beachcomber."
As you can imagine this was radical, hard on his thinking, and most likely something he would never do.
Thusly, I asked two questions:
1. Why can you not do what you want?
2. Why is this what you want?
Why do you do things that you do not want to do?
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Monday, January 12, 2009
Liberal is Not a Bad Word
The first trading day of January expiration week the Dow was up 5 of the last 6 years. We open the week was solid profits in our trading last week, and a February call bought on Friday. There may be more downside, but we believe this will be limited, and that President Obama has the capability to lift the market mood as he transitions in, and Emperor Bush is dethroned.
As President Obama comes into office the conservatives have been having a hey day telling us that "New Deal" methodology is wrong. It's hard for me to even comment personally, so I'll share a column:
Did you hear FDR prolonged the Great Depression?
Conservatives' newest talking point -- designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package -- is breathtaking.
By David Sirota
So if you're like me, you probably understand why I was momentarily tongue-tied last week after running face-first into conservatives' newest (and most ridiculous) talking point: the one designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package.
During a Christmas Eve appearance on Fox News, I pointed out that most mainstream economists believe the government must boost the economy with deficit spending. That's when conservative pundit Monica Crowley said we should instead limit such spending because President Franklin Roosevelt's "massive government intervention actually prolonged the Great Depression." Fox News anchor Gregg Jarrett eagerly concurred, saying "historians pretty much agree on that."
Of course, I had recently heard snippets of this silly argument; right-wing pundits are repeating it everywhere these days. But I had never heard it articulated in such preposterous terms, so my initial reaction was paralysis, the mouth-agape, deer-in-the-headlights kind. Only after collecting myself did I say that such assertions about the New Deal were absurd. But then I was laughed at, as if it was hilarious to say that the New Deal did anything but exacerbate the Depression.
Afterward, suffering pangs of self-doubt, I wondered whether I and most of the country were the crazy ones. Sure, the vast majority of Americans think the New Deal worked well. But are conservatives right? Did the New Deal's "massive government intervention prolong the Great Depression?"
Ummm ... no.
On deeper examination, I discovered that the right bases its New Deal revisionism on the short-lived recession in a year straddling 1937 and 1938. But that was four years into Roosevelt's term -- four years marked by spectacular economic growth. Additionally, the fleeting decline happened not because of the New Deal's spending programs, but because Roosevelt momentarily listened to conservatives and backed off them. As Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman notes, in 1937-38, FDR "was persuaded to balance the budget" and "cut spending and the economy went back down again."
To be sure, you can credibly argue that the New Deal had its share of problems. But overall, the numbers prove it helped -- rather than hurt -- the macroeconomy. "Excepting 1937-1938, unemployment fell each year of Roosevelt's first two terms [while] the U.S. economy grew at average annual growth rates of 9 percent to 10 percent," writes University of California historian Eric Rauchway.
What about the New Deal's most "massive government intervention" -- its financial regulations? Did they prolong the Great Depression in ways the official data didn't detect?
Nope.
According to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, "Only with the New Deal's rehabilitation of the financial system in 1933-35 did the economy begin its slow emergence from the Great Depression." In fact, even famed conservative economist Milton Friedman admitted that the New Deal's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was "the structural change most conducive to monetary stability since ... the Civil War."
OK -- if the verifiable evidence proves the New Deal did not prolong the Depression, what about historians -- do they "pretty much agree" on the opposite?
Again, no.
As Newsweek's Daniel Gross reports, "One would be very hard-pressed to find a serious professional historian who believes that the New Deal prolonged the Depression."
But that's the critical point I somehow forgot last week, the truism we must all remember in 2009: As conservatives try to obstruct a new New Deal, they're not making any arguments that are remotely serious.
Liberal is not a bad word. Don't be caught by Rush Limbaugh thinking. He's a marketing machine for fascism.
As President Obama comes into office the conservatives have been having a hey day telling us that "New Deal" methodology is wrong. It's hard for me to even comment personally, so I'll share a column:
Did you hear FDR prolonged the Great Depression?
Conservatives' newest talking point -- designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package -- is breathtaking.
By David Sirota
So if you're like me, you probably understand why I was momentarily tongue-tied last week after running face-first into conservatives' newest (and most ridiculous) talking point: the one designed to stop Congress from passing an economic stimulus package.
During a Christmas Eve appearance on Fox News, I pointed out that most mainstream economists believe the government must boost the economy with deficit spending. That's when conservative pundit Monica Crowley said we should instead limit such spending because President Franklin Roosevelt's "massive government intervention actually prolonged the Great Depression." Fox News anchor Gregg Jarrett eagerly concurred, saying "historians pretty much agree on that."
Of course, I had recently heard snippets of this silly argument; right-wing pundits are repeating it everywhere these days. But I had never heard it articulated in such preposterous terms, so my initial reaction was paralysis, the mouth-agape, deer-in-the-headlights kind. Only after collecting myself did I say that such assertions about the New Deal were absurd. But then I was laughed at, as if it was hilarious to say that the New Deal did anything but exacerbate the Depression.
Afterward, suffering pangs of self-doubt, I wondered whether I and most of the country were the crazy ones. Sure, the vast majority of Americans think the New Deal worked well. But are conservatives right? Did the New Deal's "massive government intervention prolong the Great Depression?"
Ummm ... no.
On deeper examination, I discovered that the right bases its New Deal revisionism on the short-lived recession in a year straddling 1937 and 1938. But that was four years into Roosevelt's term -- four years marked by spectacular economic growth. Additionally, the fleeting decline happened not because of the New Deal's spending programs, but because Roosevelt momentarily listened to conservatives and backed off them. As Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman notes, in 1937-38, FDR "was persuaded to balance the budget" and "cut spending and the economy went back down again."
To be sure, you can credibly argue that the New Deal had its share of problems. But overall, the numbers prove it helped -- rather than hurt -- the macroeconomy. "Excepting 1937-1938, unemployment fell each year of Roosevelt's first two terms [while] the U.S. economy grew at average annual growth rates of 9 percent to 10 percent," writes University of California historian Eric Rauchway.
What about the New Deal's most "massive government intervention" -- its financial regulations? Did they prolong the Great Depression in ways the official data didn't detect?
Nope.
According to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, "Only with the New Deal's rehabilitation of the financial system in 1933-35 did the economy begin its slow emergence from the Great Depression." In fact, even famed conservative economist Milton Friedman admitted that the New Deal's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was "the structural change most conducive to monetary stability since ... the Civil War."
OK -- if the verifiable evidence proves the New Deal did not prolong the Depression, what about historians -- do they "pretty much agree" on the opposite?
Again, no.
As Newsweek's Daniel Gross reports, "One would be very hard-pressed to find a serious professional historian who believes that the New Deal prolonged the Depression."
But that's the critical point I somehow forgot last week, the truism we must all remember in 2009: As conservatives try to obstruct a new New Deal, they're not making any arguments that are remotely serious.
Liberal is not a bad word. Don't be caught by Rush Limbaugh thinking. He's a marketing machine for fascism.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Some Have Some Hard Lessons to Learn
We are really right now not a red or blue America, but a "scared shitless" America. Despite the recent market euphoria, nothing is really better economically, and our hopes and dreams are on what President Obama can do. Hope can change this, as it is all emotion that has created each of our reactions.
Fear shaped the Bush Doctrine, the war on terror, and the unprecedented restrictions on civil liberties. It made us believe "they are out to get us, we must protect ourselves", and few thought the massive housing bubble and strong war economy could be caused by FEAR, even though the true unemployment kept rising each month, and the only real jobs were in the housing sector, now long gone.
The shift to hope that the American people did by electing Obama is good news. We now must continue to demonstrate the resistance to fear we had by electing him. This was the core decision being made by the American public during this election.
We deserved every part of this crash, and we equally deserve the right to intelligently pull ourselves out of it, this time benefiting the many, and not the few. My favorite is the average dippity do American that actually believes they were NOT part of the problem,as they borrowed from their inflated home equity values, and bought big SUV's to carry their bottled water, or the idiots that took out 0% interest loans.
I feel less sorry for the Madoff 100% investors, the wealthy that put it all in one basket, and didn't watch the basket. And even less sorry for those that voted for Bush twice. These are the folks that do not "get it", and have had to learn some hard lessons, many of whom still have not.
-------------------
Yesterday the market opened in freefall, as more facts come out on our economic conditions. A German billionaire committed suicide from his over leveraging and bad market moves. Unemployment figures look ugly.
Imagine if Bush's plan for a "free enterprise" social security had gone through. Right now President Obama is strapped with a huge 401K investing public that have seen their retirement savings fall by 35 to 45%
However, the free-fall held at a theoretical Dow volume of 8611, and held. We will adjust our Dow projections today with what could be another bottom on bad unemployment numbers today, but this bad news may also have already been built into the market.
-------------------------------------------------------
Prayer is the act of talking to God, while meditation is the act of listening. If you would like more information in my newest service, Floydian Therapy, I would be honored to speak with you personally.
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
When working to coach a change in environmental thinking, I begin with what I call “how we see ourselves.” I first teach to go “outside of who you are” “or what you do” “and simply observe from the outside”.
The more you can objectively just watch a situation (the proverbial cat on the mantle watching), the more you can begin to understand what you are really doing.
❑ To have a new belief, focus on it constantly and in every way you can
❑ As long as you continue to hold the same beliefs you’ll continue to get the same results
❑ Everything is TRUE to the person that believes it. Evidence will be created by all and anyone to prove their point, and all evidence is irrelevant. Only other people’s beliefs can be false. Your beliefs will always turn out to be true. Ask: do my beliefs create good life, and desired results?
❑ You will attract, and be attracted to, people and situations that confirm the truth of what you believe
❑ You will find ways to distort what you perceive so as to make a belief seem to be true, even if it isn’t
❑ You will act in such a way that people finally comply with what you believe by acting in a way that your belief is true. For example, if you believe you won’t be loved, that fear will cause you to act in such a way that eventually the other person or people will stop caring.
❑ Lots of negative emotional experiences allow us to focus on what we do not want. The emotional charge from such negative experiences pulls our focus to what we don’t want. You cannot ATTRACT by focusing on what you don’t want.
❑ What your goal should be is: Discover HOW you create your feelings, behaviors, what and whom you attract into your life, and what and who you are attracted to. Most people are concerned about WHY they are doing something. Why, is not a good question. How you’re creating whatever is happening in your life...for example, if you are anxious, HOW do you DO “anxious”? If you can’t make enough money, HOW do you do “not making money?”
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Fear shaped the Bush Doctrine, the war on terror, and the unprecedented restrictions on civil liberties. It made us believe "they are out to get us, we must protect ourselves", and few thought the massive housing bubble and strong war economy could be caused by FEAR, even though the true unemployment kept rising each month, and the only real jobs were in the housing sector, now long gone.
The shift to hope that the American people did by electing Obama is good news. We now must continue to demonstrate the resistance to fear we had by electing him. This was the core decision being made by the American public during this election.
We deserved every part of this crash, and we equally deserve the right to intelligently pull ourselves out of it, this time benefiting the many, and not the few. My favorite is the average dippity do American that actually believes they were NOT part of the problem,as they borrowed from their inflated home equity values, and bought big SUV's to carry their bottled water, or the idiots that took out 0% interest loans.
I feel less sorry for the Madoff 100% investors, the wealthy that put it all in one basket, and didn't watch the basket. And even less sorry for those that voted for Bush twice. These are the folks that do not "get it", and have had to learn some hard lessons, many of whom still have not.
-------------------
Yesterday the market opened in freefall, as more facts come out on our economic conditions. A German billionaire committed suicide from his over leveraging and bad market moves. Unemployment figures look ugly.
Imagine if Bush's plan for a "free enterprise" social security had gone through. Right now President Obama is strapped with a huge 401K investing public that have seen their retirement savings fall by 35 to 45%
However, the free-fall held at a theoretical Dow volume of 8611, and held. We will adjust our Dow projections today with what could be another bottom on bad unemployment numbers today, but this bad news may also have already been built into the market.
-------------------------------------------------------
Prayer is the act of talking to God, while meditation is the act of listening. If you would like more information in my newest service, Floydian Therapy, I would be honored to speak with you personally.
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
When working to coach a change in environmental thinking, I begin with what I call “how we see ourselves.” I first teach to go “outside of who you are” “or what you do” “and simply observe from the outside”.
The more you can objectively just watch a situation (the proverbial cat on the mantle watching), the more you can begin to understand what you are really doing.
❑ To have a new belief, focus on it constantly and in every way you can
❑ As long as you continue to hold the same beliefs you’ll continue to get the same results
❑ Everything is TRUE to the person that believes it. Evidence will be created by all and anyone to prove their point, and all evidence is irrelevant. Only other people’s beliefs can be false. Your beliefs will always turn out to be true. Ask: do my beliefs create good life, and desired results?
❑ You will attract, and be attracted to, people and situations that confirm the truth of what you believe
❑ You will find ways to distort what you perceive so as to make a belief seem to be true, even if it isn’t
❑ You will act in such a way that people finally comply with what you believe by acting in a way that your belief is true. For example, if you believe you won’t be loved, that fear will cause you to act in such a way that eventually the other person or people will stop caring.
❑ Lots of negative emotional experiences allow us to focus on what we do not want. The emotional charge from such negative experiences pulls our focus to what we don’t want. You cannot ATTRACT by focusing on what you don’t want.
❑ What your goal should be is: Discover HOW you create your feelings, behaviors, what and whom you attract into your life, and what and who you are attracted to. Most people are concerned about WHY they are doing something. Why, is not a good question. How you’re creating whatever is happening in your life...for example, if you are anxious, HOW do you DO “anxious”? If you can’t make enough money, HOW do you do “not making money?”
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Thursday, January 8, 2009
There is Absolutely Nothing Going Right, But Wait...
Whee! The market dropped to 8679 on the theoretical Dow, right near the bottom we think. This is the pre-inauguration sell off. Friday's unemployment numbers will show the massive lay offs, and a bit of truth about what unemployment has been becoming over the past 8 years. Most good employment numbers we've seen have been adjusted, and show the growth in the construction/housing industry, and lack of growth elsewhere. The false facts are coming to surface, in every way.
There is absolutely nothing going right. But wait, the inauguration will be "hope," most think, and a market upturn.
We will play a call on this, but not long term, and NOT yet in anticipation of "the world is saved" by President Obama. There is risk to our current trade, we may be early.
Now it's catching up everywhere. There is a potential of a bit more downside, but we believe the strength of the decline will lessen and we'll begin with February options, although high premium price/ration, today simply because of the risk to the market. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
The January 420 P, bought from 3.70 to 4.99, was profitable to 8.00 in yesterday's trading. There are no open signals.
Floyd, however, thinks it is, and follows the "law of attraction". We will see an upsurge to the market in 2009 to Fib channels. 38% from our lowest lows. I know I'm right.
There is absolutely nothing going right. But wait, the inauguration will be "hope," most think, and a market upturn.
We will play a call on this, but not long term, and NOT yet in anticipation of "the world is saved" by President Obama. There is risk to our current trade, we may be early.
Now it's catching up everywhere. There is a potential of a bit more downside, but we believe the strength of the decline will lessen and we'll begin with February options, although high premium price/ration, today simply because of the risk to the market. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
The January 420 P, bought from 3.70 to 4.99, was profitable to 8.00 in yesterday's trading. There are no open signals.
Floyd, however, thinks it is, and follows the "law of attraction". We will see an upsurge to the market in 2009 to Fib channels. 38% from our lowest lows. I know I'm right.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
We Are Very Good At Forgetting The Obvious
Today or tomorrow historically may show a market high. This may have been reached with the recent upturn. Read our Dow Projections carefully.
Today was a good roller coaster. Our trusty Jan420P went for .60 profits for day traders, and remains in our trading range by end of day, with second or third buyers prevalent.
"We have brought torture,
cluster bombs, depleted uranium,
innumerable acts of random murder,
misery, degradation and death
to the Iraqi people and
CALL IT 'BRINGING FREEDOM
and democracy to the Middle East.'"
- Harold Pinter (1930-2008)
Remember what Mr. Pinter said, so sadly true, as we watch the current Middle East quagmire unfold. This has cost us trillions, and our economic woes, self inflicted, are now our focus, Iraq almost forgotten.
We are very good at forgetting the obvious.
Years that end in 9 in the stock market usually mark highs and panics, especially if the preceding year that ended in 7 market a high and a panic. This occurred in 2007, so it's quite likely we'll more of the same in 2009. There is no doubt we could have a low again, but by the second quarter Floyd thinks a typical Fibonacci 38.2 retracement could occur.
This means....I'm bullish. I believe we will see the stock market recover slightly first, before the general economy, and that things will be rough, but that stocks could likely show rebound in 2009, around much volatility.
Remember the stock market moves in advance of the general market.
Floydian Therapy:
Everything begins with either someone who does something, or does nothing.
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of who we are.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Today was a good roller coaster. Our trusty Jan420P went for .60 profits for day traders, and remains in our trading range by end of day, with second or third buyers prevalent.
"We have brought torture,
cluster bombs, depleted uranium,
innumerable acts of random murder,
misery, degradation and death
to the Iraqi people and
CALL IT 'BRINGING FREEDOM
and democracy to the Middle East.'"
- Harold Pinter (1930-2008)
Remember what Mr. Pinter said, so sadly true, as we watch the current Middle East quagmire unfold. This has cost us trillions, and our economic woes, self inflicted, are now our focus, Iraq almost forgotten.
We are very good at forgetting the obvious.
Years that end in 9 in the stock market usually mark highs and panics, especially if the preceding year that ended in 7 market a high and a panic. This occurred in 2007, so it's quite likely we'll more of the same in 2009. There is no doubt we could have a low again, but by the second quarter Floyd thinks a typical Fibonacci 38.2 retracement could occur.
This means....I'm bullish. I believe we will see the stock market recover slightly first, before the general economy, and that things will be rough, but that stocks could likely show rebound in 2009, around much volatility.
Remember the stock market moves in advance of the general market.
Floydian Therapy:
Everything begins with either someone who does something, or does nothing.
*Women can always have sex. Men cannot. This is the core difference.
By this I mean that women are always desired and that if they wanted sex can always find a man, anyway in the world, that also wants sex.
Men, to the opposite, may always want sex, but are not wanted, and must pursue.
This means, to me, that men always "want" and women are, or can be, always "wanted". These core differences shake our destinies.
It is this same way in learning and studying the market. Men and women have core desires to succeed, to "win", and to "be right." Men, I believe, have more of this "hunter" methodology deeply engraved in their pysches and biases, and often struggle with "winning" and "being right." Women do not have this same intellectual drive to "win," unless they have become "manly." It's important and interesting.
Learning who we are, and what we deal with, helps us with the emotions of who we are.
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
And Here We Are
Yesterday's trading was clear evidence to us of an unsure market. Our open signal, the January 420P, was available for great daytrade profits, and hit highs of 5.70. Many traders wrote to compliment the smooth ability to trade for .50 profits, just as they did on the Jan470C, which was available under prior day close twice, and could have sold for .30 to .50 profits.
In markets as we are seeing it's always good to day trade when one can, and lock profits, as the struggle between down and upside will continue. We continue to see our Dow projections on target, with upswing potential, and downswing correction, prior to the inauguration, when most traders think we'll have a strong burst upside to the market on change.
_____________
There is a good argument against long term deflation in the U.S., and that's the price of Gold, which has held steady during the crash. As we see a sharp spike in Gold prices,which I believe will happen, we will see more concern about inflation, probably resulting from the FED's massive liquidity injections and Treasury bailout schemes. In our sister service, www.bluechipoptions.com, we work with Gold as a commodity in our stock recommendations. At OEX we're most concerned watching gold to see if inflation can create a large rally. We continue to believe we could have a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows.
________________
In 1993 there were only a few dozen antibacterial consumer products. Today there are more than 9000, with 2753 new ones introduced in 2007 alone. Never mind that the FDA concluded four years ago that antibacterial soap and lotion products and 98% ineffective compared to regular suds available and washing your hands.
We want relief. We want solutions. We buy what we are told will "save us" (Iraq, the TSA, antimicrobial products, Prozac, and now even mood enhancers like Abilify that are meant to work with your existing anti depressant, if that isn't enough.)
TV shows are now ready to stimulate our anxiety. CSI shows, et al are meant to stimulate our anxiety of "what could happen to us" in the name of ratings, and we want it. This is why when the zealots tell us family values blah blah blah they forget that as good as that sounds, it is WE as a populace that buy this FEAR.
And amidst that fear, we've led the last 8 years with the most unprecedented GREED seen since the great depression, where just a few,unregulated in their capitalistic plays, created falsehoods that we also all bought, to get more, our GREED.
And here we are.
It's now the second day that the institutional traders are back from holiday, and what the talking heads have been saying:
"With many professional money managers home for the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the stock market made its recent moves in very light volume. The return of institutional money next week will determine whether these gains stick.
"The real question is, is this going to last when traders come back from vacation?" said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at investment research firm ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
Every day next week, traders will get a dose of new corporate and economic news that may give them more insight into the depth of the U.S. recession and credit crunch.
Items most likely to move stocks include minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest-rate setting meeting, two big tech conferences, returning lawmakers' efforts on another stimulus package and Friday's job report."
_______________________
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
These are the questions you must ask yourself:
What do I want?
What do I not want?
What am I afraid of?
To be successful in the unreal world you first must be good at something. Until you are truly good at something you have little value to others, and have not even proven to yourself what you can develop.
As you gain skills you must also love and be generous. Any part of you that is not doing this, that is unforgiving, just wastes life.
Go out and:
1. Do what you’ll say you’ll do.
2. Finish what you start.
3. Be on time.
4. Say Please and Thank You.
5. Listen
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
In markets as we are seeing it's always good to day trade when one can, and lock profits, as the struggle between down and upside will continue. We continue to see our Dow projections on target, with upswing potential, and downswing correction, prior to the inauguration, when most traders think we'll have a strong burst upside to the market on change.
_____________
There is a good argument against long term deflation in the U.S., and that's the price of Gold, which has held steady during the crash. As we see a sharp spike in Gold prices,which I believe will happen, we will see more concern about inflation, probably resulting from the FED's massive liquidity injections and Treasury bailout schemes. In our sister service, www.bluechipoptions.com, we work with Gold as a commodity in our stock recommendations. At OEX we're most concerned watching gold to see if inflation can create a large rally. We continue to believe we could have a Fibonnaci retracement of 38% from our lowest lows.
________________
In 1993 there were only a few dozen antibacterial consumer products. Today there are more than 9000, with 2753 new ones introduced in 2007 alone. Never mind that the FDA concluded four years ago that antibacterial soap and lotion products and 98% ineffective compared to regular suds available and washing your hands.
We want relief. We want solutions. We buy what we are told will "save us" (Iraq, the TSA, antimicrobial products, Prozac, and now even mood enhancers like Abilify that are meant to work with your existing anti depressant, if that isn't enough.)
TV shows are now ready to stimulate our anxiety. CSI shows, et al are meant to stimulate our anxiety of "what could happen to us" in the name of ratings, and we want it. This is why when the zealots tell us family values blah blah blah they forget that as good as that sounds, it is WE as a populace that buy this FEAR.
And amidst that fear, we've led the last 8 years with the most unprecedented GREED seen since the great depression, where just a few,unregulated in their capitalistic plays, created falsehoods that we also all bought, to get more, our GREED.
And here we are.
It's now the second day that the institutional traders are back from holiday, and what the talking heads have been saying:
"With many professional money managers home for the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the stock market made its recent moves in very light volume. The return of institutional money next week will determine whether these gains stick.
"The real question is, is this going to last when traders come back from vacation?" said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at investment research firm ChannelCapitalResearch.com.
Every day next week, traders will get a dose of new corporate and economic news that may give them more insight into the depth of the U.S. recession and credit crunch.
Items most likely to move stocks include minutes from the Federal Reserve's last interest-rate setting meeting, two big tech conferences, returning lawmakers' efforts on another stimulus package and Friday's job report."
_______________________
High Pressure Sales Pitch by Floyd on Floydian Therapy:
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
These are the questions you must ask yourself:
What do I want?
What do I not want?
What am I afraid of?
To be successful in the unreal world you first must be good at something. Until you are truly good at something you have little value to others, and have not even proven to yourself what you can develop.
As you gain skills you must also love and be generous. Any part of you that is not doing this, that is unforgiving, just wastes life.
Go out and:
1. Do what you’ll say you’ll do.
2. Finish what you start.
3. Be on time.
4. Say Please and Thank You.
5. Listen
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
Monday, January 5, 2009
Risk Society
When FDR took office in 1933 a quarter of the American people were unemployed. Remember, it was a much smaller nation. Now, we're hitting what the government says is 10% unemployment, but they now "twist numbers" to eliminate the"chronically unemployed," a Bushian twist that made unemployment look better. I believe our actual unemployment may hit 18% by the end of the first quarter in 09.
FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Psychologists call our current period a "risk society", meaning we are now all preoccupied with threats to our safety, both real and perceived. Americans, for example, believe the "world is more dangerous than ever before"; evidence negates this misperception, but there is no relief.
Now, we lock our doors, say our prayers to our variety of Gods, take sleeping pills to fall asleep, and anti depressant or alcohol to ease our pain. Liquor and anti depressant sales are at all time highs.
What does this mean to a trader?
Our media thrives on creating fear, whether conservative or liberal. In the past, fear created a unification and solidarity; right now, we are a split nation struggling with the fear, and not yet unified.
Obama's greatest hope is his ability to show calm and unify us,after a disastrous eight years of Bushian "my way, the Emperor" strategy.
Psychologically our brains are not wired to process modern life. This means our brain functions to handle what we call "stress or over emotion" for the amount of stimulus/input we have created in our culture, from instant TV news, to Blackberry life, cell phones, and the web. We are inundating ourselves with information and actionable items.
______________
I"m glad I decided to give you all a New Year's present with Friday's alert. The January 460C was available below prior day close, at 1.90, and sold to highs of 5.00 by 3.45 pm in trading for up to 150% returns!
Traders also took two buy inventory to the January 420P, and we hold as an open position. Additionally, many traders reported day trade profits of a $1.00 per contract during the early market swing.
The market moved up in classic "it's a new year, everything will be good" euphoria, and may continue to our Dow projection top, but we suggest a sell off to within our Dow projections by no later than Thursday of this week.
We've been profitable on so many trades recently, and I do believe the market will begin to correct upwards, to a Fibonnaci retracment of 38% from the lowest low, to highs near 10,600, but only by the end of the year, and around massive volatility.
Friday's 250 point upswing was on LIGHT holiday volume. It is not yet a trend. There may a slight bit more topping, but we see correction before more upswing around the inauguration of our new President.
So here I am now giving you a hard core sales pitch:
Introducing Floydian Therapy, private psychological training. This is based on much of the transpersonal psychology metaphysics columns I've written this past month, that so many of you have "asked for more".
As usual, my pitch will be low key, as I only want clients ready for "real time therapy" based on my transpersonal work.
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
Luck is a definition, and a theory. I fully believe thoughts and behaviors control our success, what I try to teach. Emotions are much of thoughts and behaviors.
I believe the law of attraction works perfectly when one's mind is clear, without prejudice (study the definition), and with focus anyone can gain "luck".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
On Dec 30, 2008, at 8:24 PM, MP wrote:
Hey Floyd...I read the brief article on Luck and thought of you...it made me wonder how much of trading can be attributed to luck as well?
Why do some people have all the luck while others are perpetually unlucky? Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire was determined to get to the scientific bottom of the phenomenon of luck, and what he discovered may surprise you:
I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
FDR said "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."
Psychologists call our current period a "risk society", meaning we are now all preoccupied with threats to our safety, both real and perceived. Americans, for example, believe the "world is more dangerous than ever before"; evidence negates this misperception, but there is no relief.
Now, we lock our doors, say our prayers to our variety of Gods, take sleeping pills to fall asleep, and anti depressant or alcohol to ease our pain. Liquor and anti depressant sales are at all time highs.
What does this mean to a trader?
Our media thrives on creating fear, whether conservative or liberal. In the past, fear created a unification and solidarity; right now, we are a split nation struggling with the fear, and not yet unified.
Obama's greatest hope is his ability to show calm and unify us,after a disastrous eight years of Bushian "my way, the Emperor" strategy.
Psychologically our brains are not wired to process modern life. This means our brain functions to handle what we call "stress or over emotion" for the amount of stimulus/input we have created in our culture, from instant TV news, to Blackberry life, cell phones, and the web. We are inundating ourselves with information and actionable items.
______________
I"m glad I decided to give you all a New Year's present with Friday's alert. The January 460C was available below prior day close, at 1.90, and sold to highs of 5.00 by 3.45 pm in trading for up to 150% returns!
Traders also took two buy inventory to the January 420P, and we hold as an open position. Additionally, many traders reported day trade profits of a $1.00 per contract during the early market swing.
The market moved up in classic "it's a new year, everything will be good" euphoria, and may continue to our Dow projection top, but we suggest a sell off to within our Dow projections by no later than Thursday of this week.
We've been profitable on so many trades recently, and I do believe the market will begin to correct upwards, to a Fibonnaci retracment of 38% from the lowest low, to highs near 10,600, but only by the end of the year, and around massive volatility.
Friday's 250 point upswing was on LIGHT holiday volume. It is not yet a trend. There may a slight bit more topping, but we see correction before more upswing around the inauguration of our new President.
So here I am now giving you a hard core sales pitch:
Introducing Floydian Therapy, private psychological training. This is based on much of the transpersonal psychology metaphysics columns I've written this past month, that so many of you have "asked for more".
As usual, my pitch will be low key, as I only want clients ready for "real time therapy" based on my transpersonal work.
As the New Year begins I am opening up my private psychological counseling to new clients, as reduced prices, to help us celebrate that having New Year's Resolutions won't work at all.
Each week I'll be sharing more of my metaphysical and transpersonal psychology approaches within our Alerts. If you are interested in learning more about this approach, which is separate from trading, but instinctively part of it, consider Floydian Therapy.
Luck is a definition, and a theory. I fully believe thoughts and behaviors control our success, what I try to teach. Emotions are much of thoughts and behaviors.
I believe the law of attraction works perfectly when one's mind is clear, without prejudice (study the definition), and with focus anyone can gain "luck".
Join me if you are interested in Private Counseling with Floydian Therapy:
Write me at : floydiantherapy@gmail.com
Sign up at: http://www.oexoptions.com/pages/FloydianTherapy.html
On Dec 30, 2008, at 8:24 PM, MP wrote:
Hey Floyd...I read the brief article on Luck and thought of you...it made me wonder how much of trading can be attributed to luck as well?
Why do some people have all the luck while others are perpetually unlucky? Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire was determined to get to the scientific bottom of the phenomenon of luck, and what he discovered may surprise you:
I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.
Hundreds of extraordinary men and women volunteered for my research and over the years, have been interviewed by me. I have monitored their lives and had them take part in experiments. The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts and behaviour are responsible for much of their good and bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.
I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it and tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying: 'Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50'.
This message took up half of the page and was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it and the lucky people tended to spot it.
Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected.
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