Monday, April 28, 2008

Study the Economic Calendar

Study the economic calendar carefully. It's a week of data, and opinion. The FOMC boys babble Tuesday and Wednesday. Many believe the considerations of the FEDS are often now factored into the market, but no matter what, it's likely to show two way volatility.

What if we all truly understood that the rising cost of pensions, benefits, borrowing and interest rates were exposed with real data? Interest rates would soar, and the public and private debt that has been building so hugely, bolstered up in the recent past by the housing bubble, would be even more exposed.

Meanwhile, we discuss whether Obama understands the American people, or whether McCain believes democracy in the Middle East is our long term responsibility.
All is not as it appears, and it’s on purpose.

The U.S. uses 7.6 billion barrels of oil each year. There are 4.3 billion barrels of oil in North Dakota and Montana that could be retrieved using current technology, according to a new survey by the U.S. Geological Survey. This amount is 25 times as big as the original estimate in 1995. On first review the reader will say “ we get the oil from our country!, but on a closer look one realizes that we would deplete all of these oil reserves in one year, strip mining the states, and only provide 56% of one year of our usage.

This is truly how a false fact can be “retrieved” easily by a gullible public, and only analysis of the fact proves the logic behind it.
30% of all employees nationwide do not sign up for their employer's matching 401K plan.

We'll start the week with several commentaries from subscribers, all unsolicited. First, when a subscriber leaves we always ask why. There are three reasons almost always given for a cancellation:

1. I will come back when I'm ready, with capital. I like the service.
2. Not what I expected. I do not have the time to watch the market, and want just buy and sell signals.
or, something like this from a subscriber:
"In a nutshell, I couldn’t understand with a decent level of confidence, how (to) trade in a ‘Floydian way’. Note that I studied both websites for many weeks, have years of options trading experience, am an editor and technical writer, and have a MCS in computer science as well as a PhD in psychology. I found the writing on the sites indicative, yet it didn’t give me adequate guidance in the procedures and decision making. I almost offered to rewrite it so that I could eventually understand better." S

And at the same time, these comments from subscribers came in:

"Floyd: Nice call today. OEYQK. Had buy orders in 15 at 16.4
Put a sell order out for 10 at 17.4 filled, bought 15 more at 16.4 after the 10 were filled at 17.4
And 20 at 15.2

Sell orders all filled

5 at 18.4
10 at 17.4
20 at 16.8
5 at 16.5

Net $6,250 in 3 hours. Net $4,400 on Monday OEYQH that was purchased on Friday ‘- BD

"Hello, Floyd. Man, you are incredible. I'm serious. I don't know how much of an ego you have (if any)... but wow! That's all I can say. I am amazed at how close to today's top you called the May put. Unbelievable. You do it constantly all the time, which is absolutely amazing to me. Please tell me that with what we learn from you we will one day be as good as you? :-)

S and I scalped 4 contracts twice off the entry price of today's alert for $800.00 today alone and we still have one option hanging for tomorrow. I honestly, in my heart of hearts, hope to be as good as you one day... I mean that, Floyd. You deserve all the accolades you get for all the people you help learn this stuff and as good as you are. Thank you, and I sincerely mean that.

As you asked from my email yesterday, I attached the chart I made my error on. There are a couple circles drawn on it for reference. Please review it and my explanation below in blue and teach me what I did and didn't do right or wrong here. I have my own assumptions but I do not know if they are correct or not. Thank you, Floyd”. - DS


"Already bought and sold the put (16.20-18.80). Still think market has room to top to dow projections. Waiting it out for now. Do you have any open positions?

Simply scary how you chose that call this afternoon. I could not get in
until 18 because I missed the 16 window. Did you get that strictly from
support and resistance subsets?

Wow! 9 profitable in a row just following signals, support/resistance and dow projections. Learning to keep it simple and take profits when available. Bought the mid-day signal and averaged nearly 20% profit on sale of all partials."


There is a lesson in the above. No matter what the education or background, I do not believe any trader could learn our work "in a few weeks of study". I believe despite being an "editor" or "educated" that the subscriber canceling needs my help in explaining the lack of complexity in our alerts, and although S may be leaving, I'll be outlining section by section over the next few weeks just what each of our 8 steps means. Sorry to lose you, S!!!

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