Wednesday, October 29, 2008

It is Shocking, Amazing, ...and Funny

What a difference a day makes. The market is now "happy" that the FEDS may lower interest rates, and we saw a steady run up yesterday. Traders were able to buy the November440C only above prior day close, as the market gapped up early, but for those that did, went from 17.00 to 38.00 by 3 p.m.

It is shocking, amazing, and relatively funny that FEAR led us the last few days, and now the "thoughts" of an interest rate cut could move the market over 900 points. Study our Dow projections carefully to see what steps could next occur. 900 points in a day on pure conjecture.
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Maverick Palin tells us all she did in Alaska with the pipeline. Of course, real study shows what really happened:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27374946/

We are all Keynesian economists now. Keynes believed that government could tame the business cycle and guarantee good times indefinitely. Stimulate demand by spending more than they take in. Keynes argued that the only way to prevent depression was for government to become the spender of last resort. We will hit 1 trillion in deficit in 08, thanks to Bush, we are leading to socialism, and sadly, there now may be no choice.

Deficit spending may be our only way out, but laugh out loud when you hear McCain tell us he will balance the budget in the next four years. I suspect our deficit could double in that time, no matter whom is elected President.

The Cadillac Escalade is now available as a Hybrid. Please read this twice, and have a lack of respect.

Next, a bit on futures, and how they are now much harder to understand in relation to what the market will do:

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues usually sit down for their interest- rate meetings with a clear idea of what investors think they'll do. Not this time.

One key indicator, futures contracts, no longer provides an accurate signal of where the Fed will set its benchmark interest-rate target. The problem: Traders look at the rates banks charge each other for overnight loans when figuring out their bets on what the Fed will do, and for the last six weeks the Fed has failed to get those overnight rates to line up with its target.

The disconnect means Fed policy makers will find it harder to gauge whether markets will stabilize after the interest-rate decision they make at a two-day meeting starting today. Futures trading suggests a one-in-three chance that Fed policy makers will cut the target by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 0.75 percent. By contrast, only one of 64 economists in a Bloomberg survey foresees that outcome.

Bernanke and his colleagues are ``going to be less confident about the response to their policy action because they don't know what is already priced into markets, and investors are skittish,'' said Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed monetary- affairs director and now resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. ``It just adds another bit of uncertainty.''

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its interest-rate decision today in Washington at about 2:15 p.m. New York time. Of the 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 35 forecast a half-point reduction from the current 1.5 percent rate, 17 economists expect a quarter-point cut, and 11 predict no change.

To Floyd, an interest rate cut is ludicrous and horrible, so I'm sure they will do it:)

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