Wednesday, May 13, 2009

We Can Not Understand What We Do Not Know

94% of Americans say they would not buy a car from a company in bankruptcy. Over 74% of Americans until one year before Bush left office also believed there were WMD in Iraq.

All of this points to what we do not understand. A company in bankruptcy is not bad. It was proven years before Bush was re-elected the second time that there were no WMD in Iraq, but Cheney and "FEAR" propaganda, ongoing to this day, still influences many that "we must allow waterboarding, or we must do this, in order for THIS NOT TO HAPPEN."

Relate this to the stock market. Paulson comes alive just before he leaves office with "the world is ending," and 350 billion is spent without rules or regulation. To some, he averted crisis. To others, he paid off many friends as he bailed out Wall Street.

Obama inherits a giant mud hole that water keeps pouring into. It is impossible to shore the walls, as the water keeps coming (relating to more financial lack of controls data comes to light and things worsen).

Soon, the very people that were spending trillions on Iraq without hesitancy are calling Obama's bail out socialism. No mention is made of the deficit built.

This is not a soapbox on Bush. It is a statement that we do not understand what we do not know, but take information in to our minds in "soundbites" and make emotional decisions.

"The market is turning around and the worst is over."

"We will hit market tops and have a 1000 point sell off, or worse."

"What Obama is spending will haunt our grandchildren."

"We are heading towards a nationalized society."

Now, take these soundbites as the conjecture and false facts that they are and begin to FILTER. Here's an example: A "radical" person has "far left" thinking.

This is far from true. Radical means "from the root of" and a "radical" person could be any "extreme perspective" from the "norm." Einstein was radical. Pasteur was radical.

The fewer the soundbites, and the less you are influenced by "conjecture" the quicker you can overcome the emotional trials of "created drama" as you trade.

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Yesterday we saw futures UP before the market opened, here's the "news" that influenced futures. Let's analyze

Breaking News
•Stocks, Index Futures, Commodities Rise on Spurt in China Factory Spending (Floyd-in euphoric times as these, a positive sign)

•Bank of America Said to Raise $7.3 Billion From China Construction Sale(Floyd-a positive development)

•China's Fixed-Asset Investment Surges 30.5% on Stimulus as Exports Slump (Floyd-actually very bad news, but most will not understand the "bite")

•U.K. Manufacturing Drops Less Than Forecast 0.1%, Slowest Pace in a Year (Floyd-a good sign to a "fact" believer)

•EADS First-Quarter Profit Slumps 40% as A380 Delay Cuts Plane Deliveries (Floyd-bad news....the economy slows deliveries, and could be cutting production, but not "worded" that way in the initial "news bite")

•Steinbrueck Completes `Bad Bank' Plan, Offering Bond Swap for Toxic Assets (Floyd-a shell game move?)

•Bernanke Says U.S. Banks Must Do Own Stress-Tests to Identify Other Risks (Floyd-For your comedic relief. As if the banks will do this without controls)

•Pope Visits Temple Mount to Emphasize Shared Roots as Controversy Persists (Floyd-a bit of religion to help us clear our heads)

•Pakistan Targets Taliban Stronghold in Swat as Fighters Advance on Capital (Floyd-it has just recently been realized that we spent 7 years and trillions of dollars in Iraq, and the Taliban and Al Queda aren't even there! Invite Cheney over to your house so he can explain the danger:))

Newsbites are valuable, using Bloomberg (which provides NO conjecture to influence opinion) to help us understand what might "help" the market move.
Each of these statements have SOME truth. Each also has conjecture, incomplete information, and innuendo.

It is learning to see PAST what appear facts (false facts) that create the successful stock trader.

__________________

Now, the market. We are experiencing the flat line struggle between bull and bear, and the question of 8800 first, or 8200 first. This struggle took place all day yesterday in a 100 point range of trading around the 8450 resistance line. Experienced traders were able to profit two ways, by watching Support and Resistance lines. 8567 highs to 8325 lows, as the market moved to bull/bear flat lining struggle.

We were able to profit .60 per call, and up to 1.30 per put, based on tight buys and sells. However, this is such a tight market, and moves are so slow, that it is difficult to trade around the flat lining.

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