Thursday, June 25, 2009

Hyenas Giggle to Express their Frustration

The Dow took a fast rise in the a.m. on anticipation of FOMC babbles, and we did not gain entry to the call. But, by midday all the gains were lost and the market was holding flat.

Traders were able to purchase the July415P at 7.00 or less in early buys as the market shot up to R3, and could have sold to 8.30 by 3 p.m.

What was most interesting within our trading around the FOMC was our earlier review that "no interest rate increases" was already factored into the market, meaning the market had already anticipated this news.

It appears Governor Sanford going crazy took more of the news today than the FOMC, and the morning showed VERY VERY light trading on the Dow, which was quite unusual for an FOMC day, but indicative of a FEAR driven market, with a rising VIX emotional index.

When I see a market on low volume around the FOMC, and in a trading range that doesn't allow much trading I know something is up. I continue to believe the market could bi-directionally move. There is STILL upside potential short term, but the market now shows all signs of overbought, including "fear and hesitancy."

A Floydian Lesson:

The FEDS say the recession is easing. They will continue the "bond repurchasing fund" (translation: buying our own debt with fake money) to keep the Treasury bill safety intact. The good news was that they are not increasing it, meaning we're continuing to find enough countries and citizens to finance our debt.

The FEDS believe inflation will be contained for some time.

Here's the lesson. They have no idea, and are just making this up on what they hope to happen, as economists historically have sad predictions about the future.

And to further our commentary about an unusual market, note our recalculation of the Dow yesterday showed a market that moved to r1, and to s3, but the moves were from tight moves.

We will continue to hold our open positions.

Two Floydian Facts to ponder:

14 parrot species are capable of keeping time to recorded music.

Hyenas giggle to express their frustration.

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