Thursday, June 4, 2009

A Lost Decade of Investing

We have had a lost decade of investing. It is important to lead with this as we remember that as the Dow hit 7750 last fall we thought the world had ended, and as it hit 6400 months later that the great depression would never end. Now as the market moves back towards 9000, despite yesterday's setback, "all is better."

There is no doubt we've lost a decade in investing. Yesterday's consolidation was healthy, and well timed, as the market moves to actually be UP for the year are nonsensical. We remain concerned enough about the USD, our rising and printable debt, reassurances to other countries, and use of central banks. The following article might help us see how the shenanigans continue to "control wealth to the few," the opposite of what the "Obama anti socialists" are saying, as we do not shift the wealth of our nation to an equilibrium we allow only the few to prosper

http://mobile2.wsj.com/device/article.php?CALL_URL=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124396078596677535.html?

Yesterday by 3 p.m. the Dow had hit a theoretical low of 8562. Note that 8550 was a former resistance line for us, and that yesterday we suggested former support lines would become resistance in any downturn, and vice versa as we are establishing new Dow channels.

I personally re-calculated the Dow (not the OEX) at 10.30 a.m. and 1.45 p.m. yesterday. I used the calculator on the website that asks for the Close (of the PRIOR day) and HIGH and LOW of the current day, to that minute.

To re-calculate simply find this information at your brokerage, enter it into the calculator, and use the new S/R and pivot to reflect the DAY itself, in CONJUNCTION with the Dow projections that you see each day.

As an example, I day traded the June420P and June430P both on watching the market move back to the pivot slightly and then move to s1, and s1 I recalculated again at 1.45 p.m to find that the downturn hadn't even hit s1 on the re-calculation.

What is important for traders to learn is this:

1. Watch futures to see the bias.

2. Study the S/R and pivot at open and, if necessary, recalculate to see the Dow or OEX for the day, in conjunction with our longer term projections. They help you now when to buy and sell.

3. Set rules for what price you will pay, whether you are day trading or longer term holding, and hold to them. Remember that option trading is the "sum of the parts", meaning the success comes from multiple trades, and not all the investments to a single single, using effective risk/reward for your investment.

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