Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Choppiness is Beginning

This is a market wanting to be happy, and a kid with too much candy. The swings are lessening, but the market topped at 9628 by early afternoon. We re-calculated the Dow by 10 a.m. on the moves, and the OEX and Dow both moved to a new r2 by 11 a.m.

Choppiness is beginning to enter the market. Premiums remain higher for calls, and puts are still the weak string. Watch our Dow projections carefully this week. The bell curve bias remains massively skewed. Everyone is now predicting a bull run, or a bear crash, and it's actually getting boring.

There's reality in these articles:

http://www.wsj.com/article/SB125106232283552019.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/90227fdc-900d-11de-bc59-00144feabdc0.html

Do not believe false facts. We need this skill in the market, and just watching the deceptions going on now, we need to know how to recognize "games" as they are played.

Because it is almost necessary to day trade at this point we could see the market tighten on our OXBIP Sept 480 Call and took profits of only 15 to 20%. We'll continue to hold this trade, and not issue a new trade with two open positions.

No comments: