-OXBUL OEX.X SEP 2009 460.0000 PUT was our pick as the put for yesterday morning's 200 point run down. Futures were so negative, with other countries all down, and with a "just a bit of reality setting in " (more on this later) that traders entered only at market and made little too any money. We'll open trading today with another potential position to the put, with the following observation:
-The market is "due" for a more complete consolidation.
-The rise has been a bubble. Euphoria took over.
-High frequency trading has dramatically influenced the market.
-Every leader and talking head has been discussing the bull market, and the "reasons" for it.
-I received a subscription letter from a prestigious charting service notifying me that "charts" now showed breaking down at support lines and that more downside was possible.
(These letters are great to me to get the day the market has fallen :); my point being that the lagging indicator chart techniques usually only show us what has happened. We study Pnf Charts so we can see only the supply and demand, and the cause and effect.)
The market by 2.30 p.m. had penetrated s2 from the alert's calculation, but not come near s1 from our morning calculation showing the dramatic drop.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-miners-pace-losses-for-europe-2009-08-17
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZkutdK.J00U
Follow our Dow projections, updated, carefully. Our goal is now to gain entry into what we believe will be a short term declining market, before a return to upside.
And please remember back to the last three weeks on what you've heard about our economy, and the bull run.
No comments:
Post a Comment