Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Get Ready

Get ready? FOMC Meeting (2 days).....will interest rates stay low, and more importantly, will the FEDS begin discussing increases to the rates.
Here's how chartists see it:
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT FOR THE S&P 500 - RELATIVE STRENGTH IN DEFENSIVE SECTORS - MEDIUM-TERM UPTRENDS REMAIN IN FORCE - LONG-TERM WEAKNESS IN FINANCE - COMMODITIES LIKELY TO FOLLOW STOCKS - XLE HITS LONG-TERM RESISTANCE ZONE

Last week showed a dramatic correction in the market, a consolidation that has been coming for weeks. We’ve noted the OEX struggling to make new highs with the Dow. The market is classically oversold, and a correction has been evident. The Dow projections we provide each day on our website have shown the moves over a two week period.

It is interesting, thusly, to listen and read the talking heads telling us that this correction is about “Obama’s economic plan, the tea party win in Mass, or Haiti triggered fear." The key is that the consolidation was already evident. It is possible now for a retracement, or a “false bottom.” It’s likely the market now show downside for 7 market days.

From a market perspective this is a good time if the consolidation holds at 10,160 or up begins a sizeable upside, which we think could then return to the 10,550 Fib area. In today’s world we can only predict by the day. Who would have thought of Haiti ten days ago?

From our Dow projections yesterday:

"10,117-10,260- Support struggle areas

We may see struggles to regain ground to these upper levels as part of retracement

10,309 to 10,397-Support"
The market held at theoretical Dow 10,296 by 3 p.m.

No comments: