Thursday, January 14, 2010

Rules for Success

Trader JS just inquired about why we do not mention or define the many changes to VIX, the fear and greed indicator. JS pointed out VIX just had a sell signal.

In actuality VIX is below 20, a sign of downside and complacency, yet is slowly rising. We believe VIX to be a lagging indicator that points out the behavior and mood of the past, and although good to monitor, it's not "law."
We are interested in only a 14 day period. Right now I see the "complacency" VIX identifies as the classic struggle at a major Fibonnaci support and resistance area.

Here's a few more Floydian rules for success:

1. Never read a business magazine
2. Never watch any TV about the market, except Bloomberg, Barron's, Wall Street Journal, IBD. Only valuable papers
3. If interested in truly learning the market consider any of the CORE BOOK Library we recommend on the home page.
4. If an analyst writes it or says it on TV or magazines remember that these are NOT stock technicians, but TV Personalities, just like fat old Rush the fearmonger.

The more I learned to have "no noise" and to NOT read or listen to outside influences and to recognize that things can be seen from different perspectives.

There is no doubt the FEDS will raise interest rates. No matter where the beige book Wednesday or how the December jobs reported, we don't think the FEDS have any opportunity nor would take the risk now, to raise rates.

Watch where we are. Right at Fib tops. If the market can move higher and hold, the bulls may have the upper hand. But a sell off is almost too obvious from Tuesday's plunge (only for a time). And the market reversed the downside. It's two equally matched teams.

We are in "no man's land" with no volume, no volatility, and a waiting game. If I see a continued flatness in lower priced options I may begin to make higher risk recommendations to in the money options. Yesterday's climb at 3 p.m. showed the resiliency, and the Fibonnaci top at 10,747 was hit. The market remains at a turning point.

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